The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Arizona Cardinals players heading into their matchup with the Los Angeles Rams to help you craft a winning lineup.
Jacoby Brissett, QB
This is a volume-based business, and it would appear that you’re never going to get cheated on that front when you invest in Jacoby Brissett.
The “backup” QB has put the ball in the air 40+ times in four straight, and he’s completed over 72% of his attempts in two of his past three. The touchdown came in the red zone last week against the Bucs, a crushing mistake in a game that ended up being a 20-17 loss, but for our purposes, he continues to pay the bills with an elevated floor.
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Brissett has multiple TD tosses in six of seven starts, and it’s really not a complicated formula: throw it to your best players.
Marvin Harrison was welcomed back with seven targets, combining with Trey McBride for 48.3% of Arizona’s receptions. Much like the initial Joe Flacco burst, opponents know exactly where the targets are going, and they can’t do anything about it.
Bryce Young completed 75% of his passes against the Rams last week. That’s not to say that this elite defense is now vulnerable, but it’s a gentle reminder that matchups are a single data point, not the entire story. I’ve got Brissett ranked as a low-end QB1 and think you’re going to keep rolling him out there until we have a real reason to pivot.
Kyler Murray, QB
Kyler Murray hasn’t played since Week 5 and with the team not opening his window to return this week, he’ll miss at least one more contest.
With the 3-9 Cardinals eliminated from playoff contention and Murray’s $230.5 million deal extending through the 2028 season, it’s not hard to imagine him having played his last game this season.
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The money alone gives him a great chance to regain his starting gig next season, but I’m not holding him in redraft formats any longer.
Bam Knight, RB
We are nearing the return of Trey Benson (knee), and that’ll move everyone attached to this backfield down a spot on the depth chart.
I don’t expect this offense to give us multiple valuable backs every week, but we did gain valuable information last weekend.
Snap Splits, Week 13
- Third Down: Michael Carter leads Bam Knight 7-1
- Red Zone: Knight leads Carter 3-0
- First Quarter: Knight leads Carter 9-2
Half of Knight’s rushing yards in Tampa Bay last week came on the first drive, but the Cards identified a mismatch, targeted him on consecutive plays, and got him the first TD reception of his career.
Carter is clearly the preferred option in the pass game, while Knight is more of a traditional RB. I don’t think either is flexible if Benson is active, but moving forward, Knight is the handcuff I’d roster in Arizona, and I feel good about that call, even with the lost fumble proving impactful in a three-point loss.
Trey Benson, RB
Trey Benson hasn’t played since September, and while I’m reasonably confident that this is his backfield to own when he returns, the fact that they’ve been awfully cautious with working the 23-year-old back into action has me thinking that we are looking at a one-week buffer between when Arizona activates their RB1 and when I’m comfortable starting him.
Especially if that week is this week.
The Rams gave up 164 yards on the ground last week to the Panthers, but this rush defense has been stout for three months (Week 12 against the Bucs: 132 yards and zero touchdowns allowed on 29 attempts as a recent example), and that’s what I prefer to trust over a singular date point.
If Benson returns this week, I think you’re watching from a distance if at all possible.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR
Marvin Harrison Jr. returned from his appendicitis operation and was featured in a Michael Wilson-like way.
The presumed WR1 of this offense looked the part with three catches (25 yards) on the first drive and was pretty clearly the top man on the depth chart when looking at the distribution of looks in the first 30 minutes.
First Half Receiving Data at Buccaneers
- Harrison: 4 catches on 4 targets, 46 yards
- Trey McBride: 3 catches on 3 targets, 17 yards
- Michael Carter: 1 catch on 2 targets, 14 yards
- Michael Wilson: 1 catch on 2 targets, 10 yards
- Elijah Higgins: 1 catch on 1 target for 8 yards
Harrison matched a season high with seven receptions, and it was his efficiency (seven targets) that should have you excited. This offense under Jacoby Brissett is a high-volume passing attack, and if he’s going to be the top receiver, he’s got a very clear path to a top 20 ranking.
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The WRs who have hurt Los Angeles most recently have been the secondary options (outside of Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Week 11), and that’s a concern if they slant their coverage in the direction of Harrison after this performance.
With some risk factored in, Harrison is a starter for me in all formats as long as Brissett is throwing the ball all over the yard.
Trey McBride, TE
The only thing stopping Trey McBride these days is the Cardinals.
I’m beginning to feel about him the way I did about peak Steph Curry: what if they just told him to shoot from every position? Even with the defense eventually catching on, wouldn’t that yield more expected points than running a traditional offense?
McBride has caught 27 of 30 targets over his past three games and has scored seven times in his last seven. That’s an incredible run without the context that this is the same player who had six TD receptions in his first three seasons, a run of 49 games and 292 targets.
Michael Wilson was making history in Weeks 11-12, but it didn’t matter. Marvin Harrison returns to the lineup in Week 13 and looks solid, but it didn’t matter. The NFL is unaware of how to shut down McBride, and Jacoby Brissett is happy as a clam to funnel targets to his All-Pro.
You ended up on the very right side of the McBride vs. Brock Bowers drafting decision this summer, and I’d bet you have a real shot at winning your league because of it.
