The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Tampa Bay Buccaneers players heading into their matchup with the Arizona Cardinals to help you craft a winning lineup.
Baker Mayfield, QB
Baker Mayfield left the Week 12 loss with a non-throwing shoulder injury, and while we got reports that “there was no fracture and no structural damage” on Monday, this is a situation that is likely to come down to the wire.
Why ruin your holiday weekend sweating this news?
Mayfield doesn’t have multiple TD passes in four of his past five games and hasn’t flashed the type of elevated floor that he did earlier this year. With Mike Evans out and opponents adjusting to what it is that Emeka Egbuka likes to do, the upside of this profile is all but gone. The rushing numbers are spotty, and we are six weeks removed from Mayfield’s last 35+ yard completion.
If he plays, this is a fine matchup, but if we are talking banged-up starters, I’d rather roll the dice on CJ Stroud on a fast track and likely playing in catch-up mode.
Bucky Irving, RB
Bucky Irving hasn’t played since September, but the Bucs seem to be counting on his return to come this week.
The talent is elite, and the matchup is far from prohibitive (Arizona has played four games against a preseason top 10 RB this season, and that player has cleared 18.5 PPR points in each of those contests), but we are left to guess at the workload.
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Irving racked up 90 touches (71 carries and 19 catches on 19 targets) in his four games, recording a 20+ yard catch in each of the last three. When right, you could argue Tampa Bay’s RB1 has as high a ceiling outside of the top tier as anyone, and I hope that we get there sooner than later.
Remaining Schedule
- Sunday vs. Cardinals
- Week 14 vs. Saints
- Week 15 vs. Falcons
- Week 16 at Panthers
- Week 17 at Dolphins
- Week 18 vs. Panthers
Assuming there are no reports of a setback, I’m taking a cautious approach and using Irving as an RB2. I still think he can do damage with limited work, but the fact that the Bucs have a specialist running back to take responsibilities off of Irving’s plate in a variety of ways (Rachaad White via targets and Sean Tucker carries) is worrisome.
I’m expecting 13-15 touches in his return to action, and if you roster Irving because you felt he was worthy of a mid-second pick this summer, that is likely enough for him to hit your lineup.
Emeka Egbuka, WR
Some rookies need time to adjust to the NFL, and some rookies need time for the NFL to adjust to them.
Egbuka is proving to be the latter, as he was a top asset to open the season, but has come through tough times of late.
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- Weeks 1-5: 20.5 PPR PPG, 60.5% over expectations
- Weeks 6-12: 9.9 PPR PPG, 36.1% below expectations
This is frustrating, but not unique. Injuries around him have changed the situation and thus affected how he is being treated. This Mayfield injury obviously carries significant weight moving forward, and the return of Chris Godwin figures to make those layup targets less of an option in an offense that needs to weaponize his athletic ability with Mike Evans on the shelf.
For me, he’s essentially AJ Brown the rest of the way: a talented player with a strong target share, but week-to-week risk. The ability is obvious, and with how this team is structured, fantasy-friendly game environments are pretty standard.
There was a time earlier this season when we were treating Egbuka as a top 10 receiver without a second thought. That’s no longer the case, but I find it hard to believe that you have three WRs on your roster with a stronger Week 13 (or rest of season) outlook.
He’s sitting at WR17 for me this week against a Cards defense that has allowed the opposing WR1 to go over his seasonal PPR average in five of their past seven games.
Cade Otton, TE
With Chris Godwin back, not to mention a banged-up Mayfield, it feels like the clock is close to striking midnight on the days of Cade Otton as a PPR scam path to TE production.
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He’s now underwhelmed in consecutive games (49 yards on 12 targets) and is nearing 400 days since his last touchdown. This profiles as a get-right game for a team that we still make as the favorite to win the division, but with Otton’s role no longer as clear as it was (five Bucs caught 2-4 passes in a mess of a performance over the weekend), you’re dealing with a low-upside asset that is losing value as the weeks pass.
Tampa Bay, in theory, has two good matchups coming up and a light rest of the season schedule. That could be viewed as a reason to keep Otton around, but it could also be a way for them to work Godwin and Irving back into their high-usage roles.
If I have Otton, I’m actively evaluating the options on the wire.
