The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Denver Broncos players heading into their matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs to help you craft a winning lineup.
Bo Nix, QB
The Broncos have three wins this season in games in which they’ve scored under 20 points.
In the year 2025, team success and QB stats are as tied together as ever, but Bo Nix is the exception. Against the Raiders on Thursday night, we saw the developmental version of this profile rear its ugly head (one of six when throwing deep, with two interceptions), something that is at risk at any moment.
Nix lit up the Chiefs a season ago (48-of-59 for 536 yards and six touchdowns), but one of those games came in Week 18, and this version of this Denver offense isn’t nearly as potent.
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If you’re playing Nix, you have to be very confident in the matchup, and even then, we saw that plan fall flat last week. I expect the Broncos’ defense to battle in this spot, and if they can keep this game close, we’ll see a lot of J.K. Dobbins.
The range of outcomes is as great as any QB this side of Justin Fields, and that makes him impossible to trust when facing a top 10 defense that should tie this offense in knots.
J.K. Dobbins, RB
This offense is inconsistent at best and broken at worst, but J.K. Dobbins remains the bellcow, and given the strength of this defense, he’s close to immune to being scripted out of a game, hence his seven contests with 75+ rushing yards this season.
“Close.”
Facing the Chiefs after a bye that came after a loss is certainly one of the spots where Denver could be playing from behind for the majority of the game, and considering that his next 3+ target game with this franchise will be his first, it is concerning.
Does Sean Payton lean a little more into the spike play ability of RJ Harvey in an underdog spot like that?
It’s at least possible, and in pairing that with the projected flow of this game, Dobbins is a low-end RB2 for me this week, a handful of spots below his normal range.
RJ Harvey, RB
Entering last week, RJ Harvey’s 200-touch pace was 17.4 touchdowns.
You deserve the blame if you started him last week, even in a good spot against the Raiders, and felt burned by his 3.8 PPR performance.
Sean Payton is motivated to extend Harvey because it would look good for his draft savvy, but even he saw through the scoring binge and kept Harvey on the sidelines for more than two-thirds of the offensive snaps.
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JK Dobbins continues to run hard, and until that changes, Harvey should be firmly off of your flex radar. In this scheme as it is, he’s a change-of-pace back that infuses upside for short spurts.
That’s great for Denver, but it’s irresponsible for fantasy managers to rely on him in any sort of weekly way. The checkered injury history of Dobbins demands you hold tight (Harvey would essentially replace Dobbins to a tee should an injury pop up). Still, until we see this backfield turn into a touch/snap split, I’m never going to chase touchdown variance.
Courtland Sutton, WR
Despite a reasonable level of consistency from a year ago, where he caught 81 passes for 1,081 yards and eight scores (his aDOT is nearly identical to last season, and the quarterback remains the same), the production of Courtland Sutton has fallen off a cliff to the point where he’s on the wrong side of my Week 11 flex ranks.
He’s now failed to clear 30 receiving yards in three of his past five games, and one exception was Cowboys week, a holiday that every offense celebrates with the same passion as the more traditional holidays.
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Sutton is struggling to earn targets at the rate he did last season, and it’s been most evident inside the 20, where he was targeted on 31.8% of his routes in 2021 (13.5% this season).
A strong early-season run inflates his season-long numbers, but as this team has evolved into a win-ugly squad, their WR1 is at serious risk of playing himself out of your starting lineup.
Sutton caught at least five passes and scored in both games against the Chiefs last season, but this is a different situation. Bo Nix has under 20 completions in three straight and has been held under 180 passing yards five times for the 8-2 Broncos.
I think this team needs to fail before changing their offensive scheme, and this looks a lot like it could be that spot.
Marvin Mims Jr., WR
The volatility of Bo Nix is one thing, but failing to run 20 routes in three of his past four is another, as it makes betting on him a high-risk parlay.
Marvin Mims has single-play upside that I do believe Sean Payton will solve with time, but we don’t have to wait. Roster spots are simply too valuable this time of year to wait on a profile like this, no matter how talented you think he is.
Denver’s offense is in shambles at the moment, and a sporadic QB is not exactly the type of atmosphere I target when filling out my bench for a playoff run.
Pat Bryant, WR
It’s hard to produce as a rookie.
It’s hard to produce next to Bo Nix.
It’s hard to produce on a sub-60% snap share and 15.1 routes per game.
Any of those situations by themselves is a hurdle that few can clear, never mind all three being wrapped into a single profile. Pat Bryant has gained over 15 yards on 60% of his receptions over the past three games and led the Broncos in receiving yards last week against the Raiders.
And that’s the most deceptive stat I’ll type this week.
Those two stats are true, but we are looking at a five-catch sample. I’m encouraged and would encourage you to scoop up dynasty shares where possible, but in the scope of redraft leagues, Bryant has no business being on your roster.
Evan Engram, TE
The public is still overrating Evan Engram, and I’d hate to see you make that mistake.
His longest reception line last week was set at 14.5 yards: it took him 23 routes and five targets against the Raiders to total 12 yards, never mind on a single play.
We haven’t seen him reach 50 receiving yards in a game this season. Heck, he hasn’t hit 50 air yards in a game this season (five under 20) or seen a single end zone look.
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Engram has been on the field for less than half of Denver’s offensive snaps in seven of nine games this season. While the Bo Nix experience will inevitably come with some spike chances, there’s no evidence that those opportunities are going to the tight end position.
At best, he’s a streamer that you’re hoping on. He’s done nothing with the looks, but he has been targeted on 22% of his routes, a rate that can get him home in a one-game sample should Nix put together four good quarters.
With his playing time and the limitations at the quarterback position, not to mention some youthful upside among the pass-catching nucleus, Engram is firmly a streamer and one that I don’t like to finish as a top 15 producer this weekend.