The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Buffalo Bills players heading into their matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Josh Allen, QB
The Bills looked lost on Sunday. They were never all that competitive in Miami and couldn’t get anything going.
That feels like a worst-case scenario, so Josh Allen must have sunk your week, right?
- 306 passing yards
- 2 passing TDs
- 31 rushing yards
And now he faces something of a pass funnel in a matchup that could/should pass 50 points?
Allen is my QB1 this week, and while Keenan Coleman’s touchdown came late last week, it’s a good reminder that his deep-ball passer rating is 22.8% better this year than last.
Allen is the most bulletproof player at the highest scoring position; it really is that simple.
James Cook, RB
James Cook fought an ankle issue for much of last week, but wasn’t on the final injury report, and it didn’t seem to be an issue with him catching five balls against the Dolphins (one reception in the month prior).
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He did, however, lose a fumble inside the 30-yard line and posted a game without a 20-yard gain for the fifth time in six contests.
I’m not at all sounding the alarm in terms of worry because there’s no real competition for work. A bet on Cook is essentially a bet on Buffalo, and recent history has taught us that we make that bet.
Cook Scoring Splits, Last 17 Games
- Wins: 21.5 PPR points per game, 46% over expectations
- Losses: 7.6 PPR points per game, 26.4% below expectations
Compared to last season, Cook’s gain rate (88.6%) and chunk rush rate (13.9%) are both pacing favorably, trends that have led many to view him as an easy top-10 option at the position the rest of the way.
Ray Davis, RB
There are some handcuffs that I’ll hold onto until the very end of the season, but Ray Davis isn’t one of them.
The backup RB has picked up 44 yards on his 24 carries this season, and if James Cook (two career missed games) were to go down, wouldn’t it stand to reason that the Bills would just put the ball in the hands of Josh Allen more?
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You’re not cutting him without a plan to use the roster space better, but I would encourage you to at least look at who is available: I guess there is someone who has a better chance of making your lineup than Davis.
Joshua Palmer, WR
Another week and another missed game for Josh Palmer (knee/ankle).
He hasn’t played since Week 6, and given that the team has deprioritized him since that wonky Baltimore game to open the season, there’s really no reason for fantasy managers to hold out hope for him.
- Week 1: 9 targets on 40 routes
- Since: 11 targets on 63 routes
For the season, 45% of his looks have come 15+ yards downfield, a profile that is going to carry plenty of variance in a perfect situation, let alone a banged-up secondary option.
I’d bet on “over” 0.5 impactful games moving forward for Palmer this season because of the potency of this offense, but you’re not going to see it coming, and you’ll lose ground by chasing it.
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Your wire is littered with players who own a similar skill set but have a better role or better health.
Or both.
Keon Coleman, WR
The back shoulder, 35-yard touchdown last week, was a great reminder of what is possible from Keon Coleman, but unless you think the Bills are going to get dominated for the entire game again, that’s not how this offense functions.
Josh Allen’s aDOT is pacing to decline for a third straight season, and his YPA on deep passes is on track to be his lowest mark since 2019. Coleman is an NFL-level athlete, but not an NFL-level receiver just yet, and that is how he can end up with three catches on eight targets during a game in which Allen completed 70% of his passes.
I’d bet on another splash play or two from Coleman moving forward, but pinpointing those spots is nearly impossible, and you’re going to lose more than you win in guessing.
We as an industry were high on the second-year receiver this preseason, and if we see Allen ramp up the aggression down the stretch, I could see myself jumping back on the bandwagon for 2026.
As for 2025, this isn’t a must-hold player, even after the long touchdown in garbage time against the Dolphins.
Khalil Shakir, WR
Despite not seeing a first-quarter target last weekend in Miami, Khalil Shakir finished leading the Bills across the board in receiving stats (catches, targets, and yards). This role appears to be his for the remainder of the season.
The slot machine has caught 6+ passes in each of his past three games and has a 76.6% catch rate since the beginning of last season. The only pass catcher on this team that has been a consistent threat outside of Shakir has been Dalton Kincaid, and he’s now banged up and at risk of missing some time.
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You’re not going to see him hurdling defenders or winning jump balls, but you will see precise routes and the opening of throwing windows. Nerds love watching that stuff (guilty!), and while you don’t have to enjoy it, your box score benefits as a result.
Shakir’s high floor keeps him as a strong PPR flex, especially in a matchup like this where the short pass could supplement the traditional ground game.
Dalton Kincaid, TE
Dalton Kincaid had a pair of chunk gains, but that was all he was able to muster before suffering a hamstring injury that ended his day early.
He had a drop early last week in wet conditions. While the touchdowns have elevated Kincaid to a level where we are tempted to go this direction, considering that he’s yet to earn more than six targets in a game this season, he’s a little too dependent on TDs to rely on comfortably weekly.
The Bucs are something of a pass funnel, and that means that, should he clear all of the physical tests this week, he’ll again be on the low-end TE1 radar.
I don’t love the profile, but the position is filled with similar players, and there aren’t many offenses better suited to pay it off than the Bills.
If he can overcome this injury and the reporting is reasonably optimistic, he’ll crack my top 12 at the position. If not, I’m not interested in a pass catcher outside of Khalil Shakir.
