Setting your lineup is one of the most critical weekly tasks for any fantasy football manager. Deciphering matchups and player usage is key to making the right roster decisions. Here are some insights into key players to help you make those tough calls and secure a win this week.
Josh Allen, QB
Josh Allen has run for at least six scores in all seven of his NFL seasons (27 over the past two years), and by averaging 4.7 touchdown tosses per interception in 2024, he seems to have plugged the lone real “hole” in his game.
He’s as good as there is in this league, even without elite talent surrounding him. During his MVP season, Allen recorded the top-2 fantasy QB performances of the year, and it wouldn’t shock me if he did something similar in 2025.
“Josh Allen is an alien.” 😏@JoshAllenQB | #NFLTop100 pic.twitter.com/KQt0LQUnaN
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 2, 2025
You’re playing him without a thought; that goes without saying. I don’t think we see an Allen explosion to open the season (7.9 yards per completion, zero touchdown passes, and 2.0 yards per carry in the playoff win over these Ravens). Still, you’re wasting zero time on a decision here, even if you project this to be one of Allen’s five worst of the season.
James Cook, RB
The financial issues from this offseason cost James Cook valuable practice reps. When he inevitably regresses from his league-leading rushing touchdown total, some will point to that disruption as the primary reason.
Basic math suggests Cook faces long odds to repeat the scoring success he experienced in 2024. That reality doesn’t create a difficult decision for fantasy managers this week, though. Even facing Baltimore’s fifth-best goal-to-go defense from last season (64.3% touchdown rate compared to the NFL average of 74%), Cook’s versatility and importance to Buffalo’s consistent offense make him an automatic start across all formats.
The Bills’ offensive system continues to feature Cook prominently, and his dual-threat ability gives him multiple paths to fantasy production. The Ravens present a tougher red zone challenge than most opponents, but Cook’s role in the offense transcends touchdown dependency. His involvement in the passing game and ability to break longer runs provide the floor that makes him trustworthy regardless of matchup concerns.
Ray Davis, RB
What would you say if I asked you how many yards per carry Ray Davis averaged in 2024? I guess that your answer would be high because of the standout nature of some of his performances. The reality is that he averaged 3.9 yards per carry last year.
When called upon, he was solid, posting over 13 PPR points in all three games where he touched the ball more than 10 times. Still, he was not featured in a meaningful way nearly enough to make him anything more than a depth piece on your roster to open the season.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 1 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
When I think of Davis’s 2024 season, I remember a few long catches and a few bulldozing runs, but that is really all he had. For the entire year, 55.6% of his receiving yards came on two receptions. The Buffalo Bills trusted him so little that they gave him only seven opportunities, rushes plus targets, during their three-game playoff run.
Only twice during the fantasy season did Davis clear 10 touches. Without reliable volume, he’s James Cook insurance and nothing more.
Joshua Palmer, WR
Last season, a year in which Josh Allen won the MVP and the Bills led the AFC in scoring, there were only six instances in which a Buffalo receiver not named Khalil Shakir reached 15 PPR points.
That’s not a big number, and the fact that it was split among four players (Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Amari Cooper, and Mack Hollins) speaks to this team deprioritizing a singular threat to handle their high-upside targets.
Why would that change in 2025, given the success of this organization during the Allen era?
I don’t think it will, and even if you want to fight me on that point, how sure are you that Joshua Palmer is the primary beneficiary?
I won’t stop you if you want to mark the newest Buffalo WR as a “watch” player in your free agency pool. Do you want to invest in any capacity from the jump? That’s where I have some questions.
Keon Coleman, WR
Good players can do something at a high level, while great ones leverage that strength to make them unstoppable.
In today’s NBA, 50 guys can knock down spot-up triples at a Steph Curry rate in an empty gym, but how many can do it while being chased by a lanky defender around screens where he’s absorbing contact every step of the way?
Right now, Keon Coleman is the football equivalent of those 50 guys. He can win downfield, but that’s about it, and without a complementary skill, those low percentage targets become even less reliable.
25+ air yards target rate (2024)
- Coleman: 22.8% of targets
- NFL WR Average: 10.6%
If the Bills were confident that they drafted a player poised to win at all levels, would they have brought Amari Cooper on board last season?
If the Bills were confident that they had a player poised to win at all levels after a year of NFL tape, would they have inked Josh Palmer to a three-year deal in March?
I understand wanting cheap exposure to this offense. Heck, I’m no different. But you must approach this season with reasonable expectations and a logical starting point. Coleman is benched until proven starter worthy, not the other way around.
Khalil Shakir, WR
However, the amount of exposure you have to this game isn’t enough.
Fantasy sports can be complicated, but it doesn’t have to be in this spot. The Ravens defense has upside, but, at some level, they are a victim of their own team’s success: no team has seen more passes thrown against them over the past two seasons than Baltimore.
Khalil Shakir has cleared 10 PPR points in 11 of his last 12 games in which the over/under was north of 45 points, reaching 15 points on five occasions. The floor is always elite, and the ceiling is higher this week than most for Buffalo’s slot machine, giving him an easy case for top-20 status to open the season.
Dalton Kincaid, TE
Let’s call this what it is: chasing an offense.
Dalton Kincaid didn’t reach 55 receiving yards in a game last season, scored once after September ended, and earned all of six targets across Buffalo’s final two playoff games, where they had every bit of motivation to load up their most trusted options with work.
For the record, I don’t hate the cheap exposure to a unit we expect to grace the top-5 in scoring; you just need to acknowledge that is what you’re doing. Kincaid was a TE1 three times in a four-week stretch roughly 11 months ago (Weeks 3-6), but those were his only such finishes for the season.
The Bills need a pass catcher to step up this season. Maybe it’s Keon Coleman. Maybe it’s Josh Palmer. Maybe it’s Kincaid.
The fact that we have three players vying for a role that has marginal upside tells you all you need to know. I’m not going to be excited about playing any of the non-Khalil Shakir pass catchers in Buffalo until someone separates themself from the pack.
If someone separates themself from the pack.
