Everyone has a price, and fantasy football is no different.
ADPs will vary massively depending on the platform you’re drafting from, making it important to keep an eye on what others are doing as you prepare. There are some major bargains to be had right now should ESPN drafts continue to unfold this way. You’re leaving money on the table if you’re not aware of what your competition is doing.
Fantasy Football Targets on ESPN
Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
All in.
Talk to enough people, and you’ll find those who believe Luther Burden III has generational potential, Rome Odunze is the WR1 in town, and Colston Loveland could push to not only be a Tier 1 performer at the tight end position this season but lead all tight ends in scoring.
“The simplest explanation with the fewest assumptions is usually best.”
That’s Occam’s razor, and while the English philosopher likely wasn’t talking about fantasy football, you could have fooled me.
If we can universally agree that this offense is destined to do special things, maybe the simplest answer is to invest heavily in the trigger man instead of the surrounding pieces under head coach Ben Johnson.
They say that the true mark of excellence is how you perform when your best is required. We all expect the Bears to take another step forward, but they don’t project as the best team in the NFC North, never mind some sort of dominant force.
2025: Points Per Game When Tied or Trailing
| Quarterback | PPG |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 15.1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 13.9 |
| Caleb Williams | 13.8 |
The lone Tier 1 QB in our game this year, the QB of this generation: Williams. That’ll work.
At ESPN, he’s currently sharing an ADP grouping with Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence, and Bo Nix in that pick 90-100 neighborhood. I have nothing against those options, but this simply isn’t the right tier for Williams (my QB6 this season).
Last season, of the 26 QBs with 300+ passes thrown, Williams was QB22 in points per pass when not blitzed. (Two of the quarterbacks ranked behind him weren’t good enough for their teams to retain them: Tua Tagovailoa and Geno Smith).
Hear me out: the 24-year-old levels up in this regard now that he’s had a full season to digest the Ben Johnson scheme.
If you simply give him a league-average mark in this metric and adjust nothing else, Williams averages north of 20 PPG in 2026—something only four QBs accomplished last year. I’d extend two rounds over ESPN’s ADP to roster Williams, but in most cases, you’re not going to need to do that because of how much credit drafters give the default settings on these sites.
It’s a game of chicken to some degree, but it’s a lot easier to win that game if the other parties don’t know you’re playing.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
As passionate as I am about the Williams profile, I feel even stronger about Brown and his ADP that comfortably rests outside of the top 10 at the position on ESPN.
That’s the case because of the position he plays. I think getting Williams at cost is theft, but I’m also open to the idea of paying down at quarterback and taking your chances. Far more teams are going to pay a premium at the running back position, and that makes the discount on Cincy’s bellcow more impactful.
He simply fits all builds, and I went over the execution earlier this summer.
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His price stands where it does at ESPN because the elites at the onesie positions are bumped up. I’m generally not interested in those players at cost anyway, thus making Brown’s price irresistible.
He had seven RB1 finishes a season ago in an offense that was operating at less than full capacity. If that’s his floor, he’s a great bet to finish as a top-10 producer at the position, returning value a full round ahead of his average cost.
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Yep, another Bengal.
I have no issue if you roster both Higgins and Brown, especially if you can acquire their services close to their ESPN ADPs.
Higgins is one of only two receivers with double-digit touchdown receptions in each of the past two seasons, and yet, he’s sitting just outside of the top 20 at the position.
Last season was his best in terms of turning expected points into real ones when Burrow was delivering him the rock. I don’t envision that changing in an offense that is going to be asked to do a lot, as always. This makes his price tag—which currently rests behind regression candidate Davante Adams and an offensive environment concern in Carolina’s Tetairoa McMillan—an inefficiency that I’m happy to exploit every time I have the opportunity.
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Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers
The top two tight ends are being drafted in a class of their own, and that’s exactly how I have them ranked. That said, the higher their ADPs chase up the board, the more I like the price of this subsequent tier, especially with Kraft being lifted off the PUP list before the end of July.
The Packers thinned out their WR room this offseason, and that’s naturally going to increase the responsibilities of the remaining parties. Christian Watson is my pick to see the most dramatic growth in terms of target share, and I think that is exactly what us Kraft truthers should want.
Watson’s vertical prowess has to be planned for by opposing defenses, and with that, Kraft’s short targets become even more efficient. I like Kraft to finish as a top-5 tight end this season, and right now, he’s being drafted as TE11 at ESPN, well outside of the top 100 overall.
