CeeDee Lamb is a big-time fantasy football asset and has been for years. He battled through some health things last season, and that certainly factored into his underwhelming totals, but is there more to it? Is the best version of him already in the past and we are set to overpay for a resume with a first-round pick given the number of quality options in this range?
CeeDee Lamb Isn’t a First Round Pick
Lamb came out of the gates with a pair of 110-yard performances last season (cumulative: 16 catches on 24 targets for 222 yards), proving that he was still to be viewed as “the guy” in Big D, even with George Pickens joining the mix. In those contests, the Cowboys totaled 60 points, and the incumbent WR1 had more catches than the newcomer had targets.
That disparity didn’t last.
Lamb did get banged up in Week 3, which needs to be noted, but as the Dak Prescott–Pickens connection gained reps, it became clear that the role of “primary target” was no longer guaranteed for Lamb.
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Now, the upside remained. In the second half of the season, he ripped off three straight 110+ yard games, and that was with Pickens on a run of his own (18 catches for 290 yards and two touchdowns in the two games prior to Lamb’s surge).
And therein lies the problem.
Of the 13 healthy games they played together, Lamb led Pickens in PPR points seven times, and the week-to-week swings have the potential to be dramatic. When looking at the percentage of total fantasy points Lamb scored between that duo, here is his 2025 recap by game (starting with Week 1):
Lamb’s Share of WR Duo Fantasy Points (Weeks 1–13 Healthy Sample)
- 75.0%
- 53.2%
- 64.3%
- 49.7%
- 52.7%
- 37.4%
- 28.0%
- 59.0%
- 67.5%
- 73.1%
- 29.9%
- 44.9%
- 42.4%
In total, his numbers were fine, and that’s very likely to be the case moving forward. But can you rely on him enough week in and week out to make him a first-round selection?
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It depends on your willingness to take on risk. Lamb’s year-end numbers could very well land where you expect, but if he gets there the way he did last season (peaks and valleys), you’re going to be left wanting more.
The red flags from 2025 were real. We could write off his career-low touchdown total to variance, but it was more than that when you dig into the profile.
His 25% red-zone target rate was down from 29.2% over the two seasons prior. Extend the range on the field, and you’ll notice a similar trend (a 25.9% target rate in enemy territory, down from 30.1% in 2024). The targets he has earned on the plus side of the field? Well, those have been dipping in value for a while now, and we have no real reason to think that changes in 2026.
Fantasy Points Per Target in Opponent Territory
- 2022: 2.54
- 2023: 2.23
- 2024: 1.57
- 2025: 1.31
Lamb remains a high-end talent, but fantasy is as much a game of situation as it is anything else, and in researching this profile extensively, the situational red flags are simply too significant to ignore at a Round 1 price tag.
And I’ve got one more:
This trend suggests needing help. There is no issue in that, obviously, but it does put you in a bit of a box when the splits are this drastic: I’m not saying Lamb has lost a step, but it is possible that we’ve seen his best season and what we’ve gotten the past two years is more expectation than outlier
