The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Chicago Bears players heading into their matchup with the Green Bay Packers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Caleb Williams, QB
Less is more.
Caleb Williams hasn’t completed more than 20 passes in any game during this 6-1 stretch, and he is in an interesting spot to avenge the one misstep over that stretch.
Week 14 Splits at Packers
- When Pressured: 25% complete (season: 38.1%)
- When Not Pressured: 69.6% complete (season: 66.2%)
Those are interesting splits given the Micah Parsons injury. I was impressed by what I saw early last weekend against the Browns (first half: 12-of-18 for 190 yards and a touchdown with five different players seeing multiple targets). While the rushing impact has been a bit muted of late (five straight without three fantasy points scored on the ground), we see his mobility on full display weekly.
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I’ve got Williams ranked as QB11 this week. I think he has top-5 upside in this game, should the Green Bay defense take a massive step back. I also think the floor is pretty stable, given his confidence in executing the Ben Johnson system.
The Rome Odunze situation requires close monitoring. Williams found DJ Moore for a pair of TDs last week, though the second one was walking a thin line between genius and reckless. If he can have his WR1 back in the mix this week, he’ll move up in my rankings, ahead of his counterpart.
D’Andre Swift, RB
De’Andre Swift picked a heck of a time to record his first multi-TD game of the season, carrying 18 times for 98 yards and two touchdowns against the Browns last week.
The Kyle Monangai factor is real (43.8% snap share last week), but Swift had a six-yard TD on the second drive and, up to that point, he had accounted for every Bear rushing attempt.
This is a committee situation, though I do feel good about the hierarchy. Swift turned 16 touches into 82 yards against these Packers two weeks ago, and he should be able to replicate that against a unit that is now adjusting to life with Micah Parsons.
Kyle Monangai, RB
Williams is the obvious answer when it comes to which Bear stands to benefit the most from the Micah Parsons injury, but Monangai might be second on that list.
He carried 14 times for 57 yards in the first meeting with the back, and with him holding the bruising role of this committee-ish situation, he figures to have more blocking help this time around, as they won’t have to allocate as many resources to Green Bay’s game-wrecker.
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Monangai has fallen into the 37-47% snap share bucket in seven of his past nine games, and that’s meant 11-15 touches in four of his past five. The ceiling isn’t all that high, but I do expect him to handle the work inside the 10-yard line of a game that could see 50 points scored.
I have D’Andre Swift ahead of him, but even if more of a secondary role, he cracks my top 30 at the position.
DJ Moore, WR
Moore caught first and third-quarter touchdowns in Chicago’s steamrolling of Cleveland last week, and while I think he can hover around the flex radar with Odunze banged up, I’m proceeding with caution.
He led the Bears in routes last week, but both emerging rookies (Luther Burden and Colston Loveland) were targeted on a higher percentage of their routes in Week 16. The 22.9 PPR points from last week, likely left on your bench, are encouraging, but I’d resist the urge to chase them blindly.
I don’t mind this matchup, I’m just not sold that this offense is in the business of featuring him consistently. Last week was his second multi-TD effort of the season, and do you remember what happened in the two games following the previous one?
- 8 targets
- 13 yards
- 3.3 PPR points
Luther Burden III, WR
There is an ankle injury to track here, but with a “day-to-day” tag and the biggest game of the season on deck, I’m hoping that the rookie finds his way onto Soldier Field this weekend.
6+ Targets, 65+ Receiving Yards In Weeks 14 And 15
- CeeDee Lamb
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Puka Nacua
- Jameson Williams
- Brian Thomas Jr.
- Luther Burden
That’s some impressive company to keep. The reporting around Odunze doesn’t come with a ton of optimism, and that opens the door for Burden to lead highlight shows.
He was on the right side of a 40-yard missile from Williams last week and was responsible for five of the team’s first 12 receptions against the Browns.
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We could see a similar rate of involvement on Saturday against a Packers defense that is allowing the third-highest completion percentage on balls thrown past the sticks this season and figures to provide even less resistance sans Micah Parsons.
If you told me that you wanted to start Burden over Rashee Rice, Justin Jefferson, or DeVonta Smith, I’m not going to stand in your way.
Rome Odunze, WR
Odunze missed last week with a foot injury, but there was an optimistic tone in reports of his status for Week 15 throughout the week.
That is, until five minutes before the game against the Bears, when he was ruled out after being initially cleared due to a setback during pregame warmups.
Just a brutal outcome for fantasy managers who had the second-year receiver penciled into their lineups. He scored in four straight games to open 2025, but he’s scored in just one game since and has reached 55 receiving yards just once since October.
It’s hard to imagine feeling good about playing him in the cold this weekend, even if he’s deemed healthy. If this were a Jaxon Smith-Njigba type of situation where the target share was elite every week, I’d say to trust the role and take your chances, but this Bears team runs two-deep around Odunze at every skill position (running back, wide receiver, and tight end).
With just 13 catches over his past five games, the ceiling you’re chasing isn’t reflective of what we’ve seen recently.
Cole Kmet, TE
Cole Kmet caught two of three targets for 42 yards in the Week 14 meeting with the Packers in Lambeau, and that’s actually on the high end of what I’d expect this weekend as the Bears continue to transition toward Colston Loveland as the TE they put in a fantasy-friendly spot.
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Since Week 11, the rookie has 20 more routes and nine more targets than Kmet despite 26 fewer offensive snaps, a sign that while we are getting snap splits, the responsibilities aren’t the same.
Kmet scored against the Cowboys in Week 3 and has found paydirt just once since: there’s little volume to chase here and even less scoring equity.
Colston Loveland, TE
The presence of Kmet (and three capable receivers, not to mention versatility in the backfield) leaves Loveland outside of my top 10 at the position this week. Still, he’s in that conversation, and given the trajectory, I could see going in this direction as an upside play over the Dalton Schultzes of the world, whose value is in stability.
Loveland has earned at least five targets in four straight games, and we saw him score on these Packers just two weeks ago. In that loss, Kmet had a pair of catches that gained 15+ yards, plays that easily could go the rookie’s way this time around (17+ yard reception in six of his past eight games).
If you were starting Travis Kelce or riding the Jake Ferguson express early in the season, I could very much see (and have it ranked this way) you pivoting off of them in favor of Chicago’s impressive first-year playmaker.
