Adonai Mitchell Fantasy Projection 2026: Why the Third-Year Colts WR Is Worth a Late Dart

Adonai Mitchell’s career hasn’t had the start many had hoped. Each of his first two seasons has been quite underwhelming, and he’s barely been fantasy relevant. Yet, there is a sense of optimism around his third season, which will be his first full one with the New York Jets. Could Mitchell actually be the most valuable pass catcher for fantasy football on the Jets?

Should You Draft Adonai Mitchell in Fantasy Football?

When Mitchell declared for the 2024 NFL Draft, the excitement was palpable. There was a time at which he was considered to be a Round 1 selection. Instead, he fell to the back half of the second round. Most notably, he went outside the top 50 picks. It was just barely, but that’s roughly the point at which we start seeing a sharp decline in WR hit rate.

Mitchell’s first season really couldn’t have been much worse. Despite playing every game, he could only muster up an 11.2% target share. He caught 23 of 55 targets for a woeful 42% catch rate, totaling just 312 yards and no touchdowns.

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Curiously, Mitchell was targeted on 27.1% of his routes run, a rate that ranked 16th in the league. What this tells us is that when Mitchell was on the field, his job was to run really fast in a straight line and hope the ball was thrown in his vicinity.

Obviously, that didn’t go well since he didn’t catch many of his targets. It wasn’t entirely his fault, with his catchable target rate ranking outside the top 100. But that’s going to happen when a player’s only job is to run downfield. His 14.1 aDOT was 10th in the league.

In 2025, things weren’t going much better. Even though the Colts experienced a significant offensive boost with Daniel Jones at quarterback and were scoring points and winning games, Mitchell wasn’t involved. The Colts did him a favor by trading him to the Jets in Week 10.

Expectations for Mitchell were virtually zero. He was walking onto a dysfunctional team with the worst coaching staff in football and a carousel at quarterback of three guys who will probably never start another NFL game on purpose ever again in Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, and Brady Cook. He easily could have faded into obscurity. Instead, Mitchell flashed the upside that got him drafted in the second round.

If we throw out Week 18 when half the league wasn’t really trying, Mitchell earned at least six targets in every other game with the Jets. He saw nine targets in three of them. His most impressive outing came in Week 13 against the Atlanta Falcons when he caught eight of 12 targets for 102 yards and a touchdown.

Mitchell’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value

As a former second round pick and having recorded just 312 yards as a rookie, we know the odds are stacked against Mitchell ever being an impact player. But now in his third season, the threshold has changed. What counts as outperforming his ADP expectation is way different than when he was a rookie.

Mitchell is going off the board around the WR71. He is not even a lock to be taken in every fantasy draft. Yet, he has legitimate WR4 upside.

Is WR4 production going to win you your league? Of course not. But, as much as we’re constantly searching for league winners, they don’t exist in last couple rounds of fantasy drafts. There’s value in getting a player who can be a viable Flex option. That’s a massively positive return on investment.

Every year since 2023, fantasy managers have drafted Garrett Wilson at a price point he’s never lived up to. This year will be no different. For Wilson to justify his WR19 ADP, he will have to actually post mid-WR2 numbers at worst. To this point, Wilson’s WR18 finish in 2024 is the best he’s ever done.

The bar is much lower for Mitchell.

Now, there is added competition compared to last season. Omar Cooper Jr. and Kenyon Sadiq both come with Round 1 draft capital. In theory, they should jump Mitchell in the target hierarchy. But that’s far from a guarantee.

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I have Mitchell at WR65. A difference of a few spots that far down the board is negligible. Once you get into the 50s and 60s, every player is essentially a dart throw anyway. But I am interested in throwing one of those darts at the presumptive WR2 on the Jets.

Preseason Fantasy WR Rankings

1. Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2. Puka Nacua | LAR
3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
5. Drake London | ATL
6. Justin Jefferson | MIN
7. CeeDee Lamb | DAL
8. Nico Collins | HOU
9. A.J. Brown | NE
10. Malik Nabers | NYG
11. George Pickens | DAL
12. Chris Olave | NO
13. Rashee Rice | KC
14. Zay Flowers | BAL
15. Jaylen Waddle | DEN
16. Tee Higgins | CIN
17. DeVonta Smith | PHI
18. Ladd McConkey | LAC
19. Terry McLaurin | WAS
20. Emeka Egbuka | TB
21. Tetairoa McMillan | CAR
22. Garrett Wilson | NYJ
23. Jameson Williams | DET
24. Christian Watson | GB
25. Luther Burden III | CHI
26. Rome Odunze | CHI
27. Parker Washington | JAX
28. Carnell Tate | TEN
29. DJ Moore | BUF
30. Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI
31. Davante Adams | LAR
32. Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX
33. Quentin Johnston | LAC
34. Mike Evans | SF
35. Stefon Diggs | WAS
36. Michael Wilson | ARI
37. DK Metcalf | PIT
38. Jakobi Meyers | JAX
39. Josh Downs | IND
40. Michael Pittman Jr. | PIT
41. Jayden Reed | GB
42. Courtland Sutton | DEN
43. Wan’Dale Robinson | TEN
44. Chris Godwin Jr. | TB
45. Alec Pierce | IND
46. Makai Lemon | PHI
47. Jordan Addison | MIN
48. De’Zhaun Stribling | SF
49. Khalil Shakir | BUF
50. Romeo Doubs | NE