Adonai Mitchell’s career hasn’t had the start many had hoped. Each of his first two seasons has been quite underwhelming, and he’s barely been fantasy relevant. Yet, there is a sense of optimism around his third season, which will be his first full one with the New York Jets. Could Mitchell actually be the most valuable pass catcher for fantasy football on the Jets?
Should You Draft Adonai Mitchell in Fantasy Football?
When Mitchell declared for the 2024 NFL Draft, the excitement was palpable. There was a time at which he was considered to be a Round 1 selection. Instead, he fell to the back half of the second round. Most notably, he went outside the top 50 picks. It was just barely, but that’s roughly the point at which we start seeing a sharp decline in WR hit rate.
Mitchell’s first season really couldn’t have been much worse. Despite playing every game, he could only muster up an 11.2% target share. He caught 23 of 55 targets for a woeful 42% catch rate, totaling just 312 yards and no touchdowns.
START PREPARING: PFN’s Fantasy Mock Draft Simulator
Curiously, Mitchell was targeted on 27.1% of his routes run, a rate that ranked 16th in the league. What this tells us is that when Mitchell was on the field, his job was to run really fast in a straight line and hope the ball was thrown in his vicinity.
Obviously, that didn’t go well since he didn’t catch many of his targets. It wasn’t entirely his fault, with his catchable target rate ranking outside the top 100. But that’s going to happen when a player’s only job is to run downfield. His 14.1 aDOT was 10th in the league.
In 2025, things weren’t going much better. Even though the Colts experienced a significant offensive boost with Daniel Jones at quarterback and were scoring points and winning games, Mitchell wasn’t involved. The Colts did him a favor by trading him to the Jets in Week 10.
Expectations for Mitchell were virtually zero. He was walking onto a dysfunctional team with the worst coaching staff in football and a carousel at quarterback of three guys who will probably never start another NFL game on purpose ever again in Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, and Brady Cook. He easily could have faded into obscurity. Instead, Mitchell flashed the upside that got him drafted in the second round.
If we throw out Week 18 when half the league wasn’t really trying, Mitchell earned at least six targets in every other game with the Jets. He saw nine targets in three of them. His most impressive outing came in Week 13 against the Atlanta Falcons when he caught eight of 12 targets for 102 yards and a touchdown.
Mitchell’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
As a former second round pick and having recorded just 312 yards as a rookie, we know the odds are stacked against Mitchell ever being an impact player. But now in his third season, the threshold has changed. What counts as outperforming his ADP expectation is way different than when he was a rookie.
Mitchell is going off the board around the WR71. He is not even a lock to be taken in every fantasy draft. Yet, he has legitimate WR4 upside.
Is WR4 production going to win you your league? Of course not. But, as much as we’re constantly searching for league winners, they don’t exist in last couple rounds of fantasy drafts. There’s value in getting a player who can be a viable Flex option. That’s a massively positive return on investment.
Every year since 2023, fantasy managers have drafted Garrett Wilson at a price point he’s never lived up to. This year will be no different. For Wilson to justify his WR19 ADP, he will have to actually post mid-WR2 numbers at worst. To this point, Wilson’s WR18 finish in 2024 is the best he’s ever done.
The bar is much lower for Mitchell.
Now, there is added competition compared to last season. Omar Cooper Jr. and Kenyon Sadiq both come with Round 1 draft capital. In theory, they should jump Mitchell in the target hierarchy. But that’s far from a guarantee.
MORE:Â 2026 Controversial Fantasy Football Running Back Depth Charts
Cooper is one of the weaker Round 1 wide receivers in recent memory and Sadiq averaged 21.2 receiving yards per game during his three years at Oregon. By all accounts, Mitchell has the inside track to the starting Z role opposite Wilson. If he plays like he did last season and can benefit from what should be improved quarterback play provided by Geno Smith, Mitchell could end up being the more valuable Jets WR relative to cost.
I have Mitchell at WR65. A difference of a few spots that far down the board is negligible. Once you get into the 50s and 60s, every player is essentially a dart throw anyway. But I am interested in throwing one of those darts at the presumptive WR2 on the Jets.
Mitchell’s Dynasty Fantasy Football Value
This year is an inflection point for Mitchell’s dynasty value. As the WR75 in our consensus rankings, he won’t be there after this season. Either Mitchell takes a step forward and establishes himself as a real life WR3 type talent, or he flops and we pretty much never hear from him again.
After this season, Mitchell will either be a solid WR5/6 on the back end of dynasty rosters or he will be dropped. There’s really no in between. But there’s certainly more upside than downside. He’s already on the border of being roster worthy. Another sub-500 yard season and dynasty managers just drop him. However, if he can surprise a little, and get to even 9.0 fantasy points per game, that will earn him a nice spike in dynasty value.
TRADE NOW: PFN’s Dynasty Trade Calculator
Mitchell is a sneaky piece to tack onto a dynasty trade as the guy that puts a deal over the top. He’s the perfect player to ask for when you need a little bit more, but don’t want to come across as asking for too much.
Odds are it won’t work out, but when the cost to find out is this cheap, Mitchell just might be a gamble worth taking.
