Soppe’s Week 15 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help every one of you with your specific questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on Twitter, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece, is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Week 15 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers, QB | NYJ (at JAX)

Aaron Rodgers was very good on Sunday. Against the Dolphins, the future Hall of Famer produced a season-high 8.7 yards per pass, ripped off his first 300-yard effort in 35 games, and nearly led the Jets to an upset win over a Dolphins team that is still hanging onto postseason hope.

He looked reasonably spry, was without his star second-year running back, and heavily featured his dynamic receiving duo (Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson were responsible for 53.8% of his targets, 59.3% of his completions, and 65.8% of his passing yards).

He was QB11 on a week that featured six teams on a bye and multiple injuries to starting signal callers.

It was fun to see a vintage performance, but understand that we are a long way away from assuming that he is going to offer up viable fantasy numbers with your season on the line. The Jaguars are a bottom-five pressure and blitz rate team, a matchup that you’d assume Rodgers could pick apart, but I’d tread lightly.

Rodgers when not pressured, 2024 (among 23 qualified QBs):

• 2.2% interception rate (17th)
• 5.2 YAC per completion (19th)
• 92.5 passer rating (21st)
• 6.6 yards per attempt (23rd)

If you’re frustrated with Kyler Murray or fear the Denver matchup for Anthony Richardson, you have my blessing to roll the dice on Rodgers, but that’s about the only situation I’m going to green light. I prefer Drake Maye in a good spot against the Cardinals and while Jared Goff is in a tough matchup (vs. BUF), his floor is something that I find more appealing than the overall Rodgers profile.

Aidan O’Connell, QB | LV (vs. ATL)

Outlook is cloudy, come back later.

I can’t be the only one who feels like this Aidan O’Connell health situation is a run of randomly assigned eight-ball quotes, but here we are. At this moment, his status isn’t clear, but what is pretty obvious is that, for your QB slot, it shouldn’t matter.

I’ll address the ramifications on his two pass catchers but a player with a 3.3% career touchdown rate operating at less than full strength without a stable run game just isn’t going to cut it for me.

Crazy, I know.

Anthony Richardson, QB | IND (at DEN)

Anthony Richardson is still symbolic of a deer trying to walk on ice when it comes to his ability to throw the football. He’s 6 of 27 in his last two games when throwing 10+ yards downfield and 4 of 20 when pressured.

But in the same way that not all strong “real life” production pays off in fantasy, not all fantasy-viable stat lines reflect above-average “real life” QB play.

Richardson has been a top-10 performer at the position in two of his three games back in the saddle, offsetting the limitations as a passer with 39 attempts and three scores on the ground. His type of skill set can overcome any matchup, which is why I’d never outright dismiss him.

However, I’m very much looking for other options (Brock Purdy vs. LAR, Will Levis vs. CIN, and Kirk Cousins at LV, to name a few).

I went over Richardson’s limitations as a passer in specific spots, and those flaws figure to be magnified against this strong Broncos secondary. Denver ranks in the 80th percentile (or higher) in most pressure metrics, including the ability to produce heat with their front four.

Richardson truthers — to which I am one, and that is how I land on this note — might be inclined to ignore that fact, with the thought being that he can simply run away from pressure and pick up chunk gains with his legs.

In theory, that’s logical. In practice, not so much. You remember those 39 rush attempts I mentioned earlier? Just two of them have come when dropping back and feeling pressure.

The runs have been either schemed or one-and-done in terms of reads, and given Denver’s ability to penetrate, I expect Richardson to have a ton of resistance across the board.

If AR-5 is your starting QB and the waiver wire is a wasteland, you’re not making a reckless decision. That said, the aforementioned QBs aren’t trusted by most, but I feel good about plugging them in over Richardson in a week in which some seasons are on the line.

Baker Mayfield, QB | TB (at LAC)

Baker Mayfield has a little Jameis Winston in his profile, and that makes him difficult to evaluate. On one hand, he completed eight of nine passes to six different players through the first two drives on Sunday against the Raiders. On the other, he was five-of-10 for the rest of the half with two of those five incompletions being intercepted.

For me, trying to nail down players like this is maddening. Yes, that’s what I get paid to do, but randomness comes into play for profiles like this more than most. What changed in that Vegas matchup after the first 10 minutes?

Not the weather. Not the quality of defense. Not the support of his offense. Literally nothing changed, and yet, his production fluctuated crazily.

That said, I tend to rank Mayfield based on the opponent. The Chargers are easily the least stingiest defense on short passes (4.7 yards per attempt, nearly a full yard below league average) and that puts us in a tough spot when you consider that, after throwing six deep touchdown passes in seven games to open the season, Mayfield has just one in six games since.

With both of these teams ranking at bottom-eight in pace, I don’t trust the quality or quantity in this spot. Rookies like Bo Nix and Drake Maye grade more favorably this week as do a trio of NFC North QBs that have battled fantasy inconsistencies of their own (Sam Darnold, Jordan Love, and Jared Goff).

Bo Nix, QB | DEN (vs. IND)

The Bo Nix profile looks good when you look at the macro. The rookie has five top-10 finishes and has been a top-seven producer at the position in three of his past six games. The speed of the NFL hasn’t been overwhelming and he’s showing increased comfort in challenging defenses vertically (56% deep ball completion rate over his past three games, up from 37.5% previously).

A more micro approach, however, will raise some fantasy red flags. The most damning fact is that he has nine rushing yards on his resume over his past four games. Nix isn’t Lamar Jackson, but he was previously averaging 32.8 yards on the ground, and that is the sort of production that can lift him up the fantasy rankings. On top of the limited rushing percentage, he has failed to reach a 60% completion rate in consecutive games for the first time this season.

At the end of the day, you have to be aware of a wider range of outcomes. That said, I’m willing to gamble in this spot. The Colts rank 27th in yards per pass against and second in pace of play — in short, they allow opponents to be efficient and give them the ball back quickly.

I’ve got Nix penciled in as my QB10 this week coming out of his bye, ahead of Week 14 darling Sam Darnold.

Brock Purdy, QB | SF (vs. LAR)

I was encouraged by what we got from Brock Purdy last week against the Bears in his first game since losing his RB1 and RB2, but the one-sided nature of that game certainly helped. When all was said and done, he completed 80% of his passes with multiple touchdowns and 13.0 yards per pass.

That might not be sustainable against a good high school defense, but it was good to see and resulted in his fifth top-six finish at the position for the season. I don’t have him ranked quite that high this week (my QB9), but there’s plenty to like in this spot and you should feel fine about plugging him in despite the injuries around him.

The efficiency last week was one thing, but I liked seeing his highest average depth of throw since September. The Rams rank 22nd in blitz rate, and if Purdy is given time to throw, I think we could see him push the envelope again this week against a defense that has struggled across the forward pass in every way imaginable:

• 26th in passer rating
• 29th in touchdown rate
• 30th in yards per completion
• 31st in yards per attempt

Purdy has more rushing yards and touchdowns this year than he previously had in his career. While those numbers on the projection front won’t jump off the screen at you, there is the potential for him to add some value with his legs, and that helps me rank him over a Jared Goff-type this week with confidence.

Bryce Young, QB | CAR (vs. DAL)

Bryce Young has taken some steps forward over the past month.

Bryce Young still has a long way to go.

Both things can be, and are, true. Over the past month, he’s cleared 15 rushing yards in all four games, taken just five sacks, and made some nice reads down the field that have put his team in position to be competitive. Also over that stretch, he’s yet to complete over 60% of his passes in a game or thrown for multiple scores in a contest.

His interception last week in Philadelphia was awful on all accounts — a bad decision, a poor throw, and a lack of game awareness as it flipped the game at the end of the first half.

The Cowboys defense isn’t what we hoped it would be, but I thought they looked fine on Monday night and all of their pressure metrics have spiked since the return of Micah Parsons. Young might be a deep sleeper in 2025 — not in Week 15.

Caleb Williams, QB | CHI (at MIN)

Caleb Williams has four top-six finishes on his rookie year resume and I think, entering the year, we would have taken that. The problem, however, is that he has only a pair of top-15 finishes since the huge Week 6 performance, something that is symbolic of the floor that he carries weekly.

Him getting Rome Odunze a pair of touchdowns last week was great to see for those of us holding long-term stock in this offense, though I’d caution against reading too much into it when it comes to value for the remainder of this season.

The rushing profile is nice (27+ yards on the ground in four straight), but the unwillingness to push the ball down field (7.0 aDOT or lower in four of his past five games) is a fantasy production suppressant. He was able to dominate the Vikings in the Week 12 meeting, but is a 149.1 passer rating against the blitz really something we can count on him reproducing?

I’m happy to bet on this aggressive defense adjusting their exotic calls and making Williams uncomfortable with far more regularity than the first game. If you’re trying to get creative in a DFS setting during the two-game Monday night slate, go for it — but in season-long leagues with zero teams on a bye, there’s no reason to take on this risk in my opinion.

C.J. Stroud, QB | HOU (vs. MIA)

I was as guilty as anyone in assuming that the return of Nico Collins would return C.J. Stroud to elite form.

Wrong, wrong, wrong.

The man has one top-12 finish this season and it came back when the Raiders were a .500 football team (Week 4). Yeah, it’s been a minute. With just one multi-pass-TD game since mid-October and more interceptions (five) than touchdown passes (four) over the past month, there’s plenty of risk we have to account for in this profile.

The Dolphins are an average defense by pressure rate (15th), but they rarely actually get home (29th in sack rate), and that has allowed them to be gashed in consecutive weeks.

• Jordan Love (Week 13): 21-of-28, 274 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions
• Aaron Rodgers (Week 14): 27-of-39, 339 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions

I think Stroud has a good chance to replicate those levels of success. His passer rating when out of the pocket this season is 29.6% higher than a season ago, a strength that figures to come into play given Miami’s defensive profile.

Both QBs in this game are locked inside of my top 10 this week, and I actually prefer Stroud to Tua Tagovailoa in what could be a very fantasy-friendly game where you’re starting all of your pieces.

Cooper Rush, QB | DAL (at CAR)

Cooper Rush has failed to clear 195 passing yards on 30+ attempts in consecutive games, first against the Giants and on Monday night against the Bengals. He is the only QB to check both of those boxes against either of those defenses this season — miss me with the “can I start Rush over insert established QB” questions.

Rush hasn’t proven capable of leveraging strong matchups, and I see no reason to think that changes with a short work week.

Derek Carr, QB | NO (vs. WAS)

Derek Carr (broken left hand) has officially been listed as “week-to-week” by the Saints, but his season appears to be over and I think we can operate under that assumption with New Orleans effectively being a game away from playoff elimination.

Carr still has two years remaining on his deal (though the team does have an out available to them this summer), making it important to note that, assuming his 2024 is over, he will have posted a triple-digit deep passer rating for the sixth time in his career. He doesn’t get the love he should for his touch on the long pass and that will likely be reflected when I am higher than you on Chris Olave this summer.

Desmond Ridder, QB | LV (vs. ATL)

This season, 45 quarterbacks have thrown at least 40 passes this season. Within that data set, the Desmond Ridder rankings are … well, they are what you’d think.

• 40th in touchdown rate
• 41st in first down rate
• 42nd in yards per pass
• 44th in air yards per pass
• 45th in sack rate

Ridder is on the fringe of pushing my “I’d take any starting QB over a skill position player” logic when it comes to filling out my Offensive Player roster spot in Superflex settings should Aidan O’Connell be ruled out.

Drake Maye, QB | NE (at ARI)

There’s a lot to like here, that much we know. Drake Maye’s athleticism creates highlights, but don’t overlook the fact that he has completed at least 80% of his non-pressured passes in three of his past four games. The Patriots seem to have found “their guy” for years to come, but let’s not put the cart before the horse.

For the season, Maye has one finish better than QB12 this season (Week 7). He’s averaging 5.6 fantasy points per game with his legs over his past six games, and that includes a game he left early — there certainly is some cheatcode potential in this profile.

Part of what makes an athletic QB dangerous is not what he does with his legs, but how he is defended due to the fear of his legs. Look at Anthony Richardson. Why has he been able to hit some home run pass plays this season?

Spoiler alert, it’s not because of his precision as a thrower. Whether you want to blame it on Maye directly or supporting cast limitations, I don’t really care — he’s not feared down the field right now. Through eight starts (nine appearances), he’s completed just nine-of-38 deep passes (23.7%) with three interceptions.

The Cardinals are a top-12 defense in most long pass metrics this season. Until Maye starts to pick up production in that regard, I’m going to have a hard time trusting him with my fantasy season on the line.

You could do worse, but I prefer the floor that Brock Purdy and Jared Goff types offer, even if the theoretical ceiling isn’t quite the same.

Drew Lock, QB | NYG (vs. BAL)

Drew Lock completed just 12 of 22 passes (54.5%) on balls thrown less than five yards downfield on Sunday against the Saints (the NFL average completion percentage on those passes this season is 76.5%).

Lock won’t start in Week 15, but long-term, there’s no need to go this deep in any fantasy format, and that includes DFS GPPs where almost anything is on the table.

Geno Smith, QB | SEA (vs. GB)

Geno Smith has completed 16 of 19 passes against the blitz during Seattle’s current four-game win streak (3 of 7 in losses before this run). That’s a nice trend to take into a game against a Packers defense that elected to heat up Jared Goff with a blitz on 32.6% of dropbacks, their highest rate of the season.

We’ll see if that level of aggression sustains in this spot and if Smith can continue to handle it with grace. Green Bay is coming off the mini-bye, and I don’t have much confidence in the creativity of Seattle’s offense, something that has me ranking their QB outside of my top 15 this weekend.

Smith has one finish better than QB20 since Week 7 despite plus volume. If Josh Jacobs can continue to dictate tempo, I’m not sure there are enough possessions for the Seahawks in order to make Smith a viable option in standard 1QB formats.

Jake Haener, QB | NO (vs. WAS)

The Saints announced on Friday that Jake Haener will take over for Derek Carr this week, meaning he will lead this mash unit. Is the Washington matchup a positive one? It is, but we have no proof that Haener will be able to do so, especially when you consider the lack of firepower he has at his disposal.

We don’t have much in the way of professional data on Haener, though his ability to take the layup throws is something he has struggled with up to this point. On 20 career short attempts, the pride of Fresno State has completed just nine passes for 75 yards with zero scores.

That means he’s completing 45% of such attempts while averaging 3.8 yards per attempt for his career. For reference, the NFL averages are 73.4% and 5.6. The samples are too small to make sweeping assumptions, but they are also too negative to be even remotely interested in.

Jalen Hurts, QB | PHI (vs. PIT)

Jalen Hurts might be the closest thing we have to inevitable in fantasy sports right now. He’s averaging 8.0 yards per pass and 10.2 fantasy points per game with his legs. His fantasy managers may not even realize that Dallas Goedert is banged up or that A.J. Brown is in the midst of some struggles.

The scary part here is that there might be more room to grow than there is to regress.

Jameis Winston, QB | CLE (vs. KC)

Jameis Winston had one completion through the middle of October and is now the only quarterback with 40+ pass attempts in five games this season.

Never change, Jameis. Never change.

If you’re playing Winston this time of year, I admire your gumption. Either that, or you’re desperate, and there’s nothing wrong with that. It happens, and swinging for the fences is a logical approach if you believe your team is overmatched (it’s no different than an NBA team launching threes to embrace variance).

But I think you’re drawing dead in this spot. Twice a QB scored 20 fantasy points against the Chiefs this season and both of them cleared 11 points with their legs (Lamar Jackson in Week 1 and Josh Allen in Week 11). That’s not Winston’s path to upside. If the ceiling isn’t there, you’re taking on an awfully low floor in the name of fun.

Early weather projections are for some wind and some rain. Not overly prohibitive, but also not ideal, and you need to run as hot as the sun to get Winston to be a usable asset. I’d keep Winston rostered (Week 16 at Cincinnati), but I’d rather plug in current punching bag Kirk Cousins (at Raiders) or Anthony Richardson (at DEN) if he was cut loose ahead of his bye week.

Jared Goff, QB | DET (vs. BUF)

Jared Goff threw “a” bad pass on Thursday night, and it was intercepted, but he was predictably efficient again (78.1% complete) in leading the offense that sits at the top of our Offensive+ power rankings.

This is as positive of a scoring environment as there is in the NFL today, which means that starting any Lions player any week is reasonable, if not suggested.

The Bills’ defense is good, there’s no denying that. Some would argue “great,” and I’d listen. But good offense beats good defense in the year 2024, and with two damning boxes checked, I’m not hesitating to play Goff this week with extended rest.

First is the obvious. This game will take place in the great state of Detroit, and that alone demands our attention. Since 2021, Goff has owned the top home-game passer rating (106.9 over the 32-game sample) in the sport, fueled by a 6.4% touchdown rate.

During his nearly four-year stint as the Lions’ shot-caller, Goff has cleared 26 fantasy points on eight occasions:

• Week 11, 2024 vs. Jaguars: 34.6 fantasy points
• Week 4, 2022 vs. Seahawks: 33.2
• Week 15, 2023 vs. Broncos: 31.1
• Week 1, 2021 vs. 49ers: 28.9
• Week 5, 2023 vs. Panthers: 27.4
• Week 4, 2024 vs. Seahawks: 26.2
• Week 14, 2022 vs. Vikings: 26.1
• Week 2, 2022 vs. Commanders: 26

Notice anything? Yep, each one of them came in front of the Detroit faithful. Each of those games also saw at least 57 total points scored — a home game where the offense is pushed to the core. Could that be the case in this spot?

The second is how the Bills play. They refuse to bring heat, instead banking on their talented secondary to hold up in coverage. For the most part, that strategy has held up this season. However, I think, after 14 weeks, we’ve established that the Lions aren’t like “most” matchups.

Goff’s passer rating when not blitzed:

• 2019 (Rams): 86.5
• 2020 (Rams): 86.6
• 2021 (Lions): 87.3
• 2022 (Lions): 95.7
• 2023 (Lions): 97.0
• 2024 (Lions): 101.8

Whether you think that is a Goff stat or is more reflective of the talent around him, I really don’t care. The fact of the matter is that when he’s comfortable, he’s dicing up opponents. And with Josh Allen likely to apply game pressure the way the Packers did on Thursday night, it’s not hard to rank Goff among the best pocket passers for the week.

Maybe the best among them?

Jayden Daniels, QB | WAS (at NO)

Jayden Daniels came out of the gate flying this season, and yet, it wouldn’t be hard to argue that he was playing his best football ahead of the Week 14 bye. I guess you could nitpick “best,” but when it comes to fantasy production, the results are real and spectacular.

PPR Points, Weeks 12-13:

• Saquon Barkley: 65.9
• Daniels: 58.0
• Jerry Jeudy: 55.0
• Bucky Irving: 54.7
• Tua Tagovailoa: 53.7
• Caleb Williams: 53.0

Is it possible that I would have laughed in your face if you presented that list to me in August and said it was a two-week leaderboard for a very impactful two-week stretch? I’m not saying no, such is the nature of this business.

Daniels had a down month in terms of fantasy production, but he’s back at just the right time for this matchup that scares no one these days. I’m not saying he becomes the first player in NFL history to string together three straight games with at least 25 completions, multiple TD passes, and a rushing score … but I’m not saying he won’t.

Daniels is the Offensive Rookie of the Year and deserves to be locked into starting lineups across the board — from six-team leagues to DFS contests.

Joe Burrow, QB | CIN (at TEN)

Joe Burrow is having a career year (pace: 4,846 yards and 43 TDs), and just about nothing can slow him down at this point as the offense is scheming around his strengths. Tee Higgins and Mike Gesicki have plenty of room to be more involved, giving Burrow plenty of production outs should a team unearth a way to slow Ja’Marr Chase.

The counting numbers for the Titans’ defense look good, but that’s the result of limited volume. Through 14 weeks, they allow touchdown passes at the 10th highest rate in the league, and we know that this Bengals’ offense is going to challenge the end zone through the air.

Jordan Love, QB | GB (at SEA)

Jordan Love has posted a passer rating north of 105 in four straight games. That might give the Packers the potential to win a few playoff games, but real-life efficiency doesn’t always mean paying the fantasy bills, which is the situation we find ourselves in routinely here.

Love hasn’t finished a week as a top-10 signal-caller since Week 6 and has been a disappointment (six touchdown passes in his past six games). The rushing potential was flashed a little bit last week (season-high 23 rushing yards), but with a TD/INT rate outside of the red zone that ranks alongside luminaries like Will Levis and Daniel Jones, the path to consistent value just isn’t there.

The matchup off of the mini-bye against the Seahawks doesn’t scare me too much. But with Josh Jacobs sucking up all of the scoring equity, Love needs to be close to flawless to churn out a profit, and that’s a dangerous line to walk for a risk-taking profile like this.

Josh Allen, QB | BUF (at DET)

Josh Allen stamped his MVP ticket last week with the historic six-touchdown performance, and now he gets a chance to solidify the Bills as legitimate Super Bowl threats.

In our game, Allen is exactly as good as you think he is. Last week was his second finish this season as the top-scoring QB of the week, his fifth top-five finish, and eighth in the top 10.

The Bills have asked Allen to quicken his decision-making (65.4% fast pass rate, easily a career high), and it’s opened up more avenues to production.

Like with Hurts, you could easily argue that there is room to grow. Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman have both been on the shelf recently and will offer a depth in support that he’s thriving without.

Justin Herbert, QB | LAC (vs. TB)

Justin Herbert has dropped back on 121 third downs — none of his 104 passes on those plays have been intercepted (eight touchdowns). This highlights, to me, how valuable he is for the Chargers, even if his fantasy numbers aren’t jumping off the screen.

With Los Angeles overachieving based on expectations, you’d assume that their shot caller has more than five top-15 finishes and better than a QB7 peak.

Josh Allen and Joe Burrow need to put up elite fantasy numbers for their teams to succeed — that’s simply not true for Herbert, and I don’t see that changing over the final month.

Kirk Cousins, QB | ATL (at LV)

Kirk Cousins is the first starting QB with zero passing touchdowns and 8+ interceptions in a four-game span since Ben Roethlisberger from 2005-06. He hasn’t been a top-20 producer at the position in any of those games, something that is hard to do when you consider the volume of byes over those weeks.

There’s no reason to bet on this profile at the moment. If you want to leverage overall panic in this offense and get a piece of the pie facing off against a vulnerable Raiders defense, I fully support it. But asking Cousins to get you through to the next round of a redraft postseason is taking on far more risk than is necessary in Week 15.

Kyler Murray, QB | ARI (vs. NE)

During this three-game losing streak, Kyler Murray has completed just 9 of 30 pressured passes with zero touchdowns and five interceptions. With his rushing numbers trending down, those passing numbers are alarming, even more so when you consider this matchup.

The Patriots, on the whole, are not overly aggressive, but we’ve seen them ramp things up in specific spots, and this could be such a situation.

Four games with at least a 40% blitz rate
Five games with a pressure rate of at least 33.3%

It’s been a coin toss this season if Murray will finish as a QB1 (five such finishes). This week, I have him on the wrong side of that equation, opting to rank his opposing number in this game above him.

Lamar Jackson, QB | BAL (at NYG)

I’d have to work hard to sell you on being skeptical of Lamar Jackson in any spot. Maybe next week (Saturday vs. Pittsburgh) will be the time to make that case, but for the here and now, there should be zero hesitation in getting as much exposure to Jackson as humanly possible.

I assume that there will be game-script concerns, with the thought being that the Ravens could pound Derrick Henry 30 times and be on their way. I don’t doubt that is possible, but Baltimore is plenty confident in what it can do on the ground.

Why not use the Week 14 bye to hone the passing game and this soft landing spot as a way to test some new things out in preparation for a long playoff run?

That, of course, is speculation on my part, but we did see it last season. Following the Week 13 bye, Baltimore posted their highest pass rate of the season in Week 14. Part of that was due to a shootout, but it was also the Ravens’ third-highest pass rate when the game was within a single score.

The Giants rank in the bottom third of the league in terms of creating pressure when blitzing, and if they can’t make Jackson sweat, he could single-handedly win your matchup for you.

Jackson’s passing production when not pressured:

• 2021: 90.4 passer rating, 69.1% completion percentage, and 1.1 TD-to-INT
• 2022: 102.3 passer rating, 70.2% completion percentage, and 2.6 TD-to-INT
• 2023: 105.9 passer rating, 73.8% completion percentage, and 2.8 TD-to-INT
• 2024: 125.6 passer rating, 75% completion percentage, and 6.7 TD-to-INT

Jackson has been a top-six producer at the position 10 times this season, and there’s no reason to think he doesn’t offer up his seventh such performance in his past eight games this weekend.

Mac Jones, QB | JAX (vs. NYJ)

Mac Jones doesn’t require your attention. It was nice to see him force feed Brian Thomas in the second half of Week 13, and at the end of the day, that’s how he will be judged — by his ability to support his rookie receiver and not his individual fantasy production.

Jones threw a pair of touchdown passes against the Texans in Week 13, but his other 91 passes this season have resulted in zero scores and five picks.

Matthew Stafford, QB | LAR (at SF)

Matthew Stafford was part of the fun shootout with Josh Allen last week and now has posted four top-10 finishes in his past seven starts. It’s tough for a statue QB to make a living in our fantasy world, and I worry that the 49ers’ familiarity with him combined with a low blitz rate could leave you wanting more if you elect to chase the fireworks from last week.

The risk, in my opinion, simply outweighs the reward. The 29th-ranked blitz team is going to sit back and make this a low possession game — not the ideal game environment.

Stafford has one game this season with 20+ completions and 3+ passing scores. It came against a Vikings defense that is 180 degrees different than what he’s going to face on Thursday night.

I’m betting that you can do better this week.

Patrick Mahomes, QB | KC (at CLE)

Including the playoffs, Patrick Mahomes (127 career starts, 10 such wins) now has more victories when his team scores fewer than 20 points than Aaron Rodgers (258, nine such wins). That’s not so much a fantasy stat as it is proof that this team doesn’t need their All-Pro quarterback to put up All-Pro numbers.

Not yet anyway.

Talk to me in mid-January, and we’ll see where things stand, but with Isiah Pacheco taking control of this backfield last week and the ticking time bomb that is Jameis Winston, who’s to say that the plan this week isn’t “sustain drives and let Cleveland implode against our strong defense”?

Mahomes has only a pair of top-10 finishes this season, and I don’t think he adds to that total here. There are three NFC North and four AFC East QBs I’d rather click into my fantasy lineup this week than the man who might well be the best to ever do it.

What a world.

Russell Wilson, QB | PIT (at PHI)

I thought Russell Wilson showed fine for himself last week without George Pickens, notching his fourth multi-pass TD game of the season, but I’m not the least bit confident that he can prove worthy of our trust in this spot should his WR1 be at anything less than full strength.

Wilson’s yards per attempt were 27.4% lower last week than his season average. And with the Eagles posting the fourth-lowest YAC per completion this season, I have a hard time thinking that 200 yards or multiple touchdowns is in the cards for the veteran QB this week.

Like Mahomes and the Chiefs, this team doesn’t need fantasy-friendly QB numbers to win ball games. The less Wilson does in this game, the better I think Pittsburgh’s chances are of pulling off the upset, and I expect Mike Tomlin to share that line of thought.

Sam Darnold, QB | MIN (vs. CHI)

Sam Darnold is coming off of the best game of his career and has been a top-12 fantasy quarterback eight times this season, including in each of his past four games.

He’s been nothing short of phenomenal, and while I want to bet against him, there’s nothing supporting doing so. He’s been exceptional against pressure (13.0 yards per attempt over his past four games with five touchdowns and zero picks), and that’s the calling card of this Bears defense.

In Week 12, Darnold completed 8 of 13 pressured attempts against this unit, and that was with Chicago successfully shutting down Justin Jefferson. Darnold is my QB11 this week and a part of a tier that ranges up to QB8. He’s the most reliable fantasy quarterback in this division right now, a sentence you would have never been able to sell me on three short months ago.

Tommy DeVito, QB | NYG (vs. BAL)

Tommy DeVito has missed out on consecutive starts, partly due to a forearm injury. He’ll get the start in Week 15 due to Drew Lock’s injury, but it shouldn’t matter to you in any situation, whether this week or long-term.

You’d need to sell me on a high-volume projection for an inefficient DeVito to get him ranked as a QB2 for me, and I’m telling you right now that you will be unable to do that in this matchup. DeVito doesn’t have a touchdown toss in four straight appearances (83 pass attempts) — he’d have to really overachieve to be of use, even in two-QB formats.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB | MIA (at HOU)

It’s all happening at the perfect time. Tua Tagovailoa has been a top-10 QB in four straight games (top-five finishes in two of those weeks) and is rounding into the form that we drafted him for this summer.

Last week’s game plan was a concentrated one from the jump and that’s exactly what we want. In the first half against the Jets, Tagovailoa funneled 122 of his 165 passing yards (73.9%) to Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle.

Chef’s kiss.

The Jonnu Smith production came in overtime and with three legitimate pass catchers to compliment the explosive backfield, this is an offense set to peak at the perfect time for us. The Texans allow the fourth-most YAC yards per short completion this season — look for Miami to pick at that scab with bubble screens and, eventually, double moves that open up downfield potential.

I have Tagovailoa ranked as my QB7 — I’m more worried about being too low than too high.

Will Levis, QB | TEN (vs. CIN)

Will Levis again hurt his throwing shoulder on Sunday. While he was able to ultimately return, this season isn’t going anywhere, and that puts his status in question should anything flare up during the work week.

What is Levis but a higher-pedigree Cooper Rush with a lifetime mayonnaise deal? With a similar size profile, he has a slightly higher career passer rating and a slightly lower TD/INT rate. In a vacuum, maybe I take Levis, but the point remains that they aren’t all that different.

• Rush vs. Bengals, Week 14: 31 passes, 183 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception

Any issues with that general projection for Levis? That was QB18 last week, a week in which Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Drake Maye, and Bo Nix were sitting at home on a bye.

I understand the idea of wanting to stream in this direction if we get a clean bill of health mid-week, but I think absorbing more risk than reward potential.

Week 15 Fantasy Football Running Backs

Aaron Jones, RB | MIN (vs. CHI)

Aaron Jones has produced over expectations in consecutive games after going through five straight underachieving performances. Behind the impressive season from Sam Darnold, this Vikings offense ranks third in pass rate over expectations, and Jones has been able to pay that off with an 86% catch rate.

We already have proof of production against the Bears (25 touches for 129 yards and a score in Week 12), and I’m inclined to think we see more of the same this week. This offense hasn’t been shy about loading up their bell cow with work (five games with 20 touches and six games with four targets), and that is the driving force behind ranking him as a strong RB2 in this spot as a sizable favorite.

The fumble issues are not to be ignored (four fumbles in the three games before a strong showing last week against the Falcons), but as long as he can hold onto the rock, he’s a solid bet.

Alexander Mattison, RB | LV (vs. ATL)

Alexander Mattison continues to nurse an ankle injury, and with just a 3.3 yards-per-carry average this season, there’s no need to hold out hope. The emergence of Sincere McCormick and the general ineptitude of this offense leaves next to no projectable projection available for Mattison, even if he were to be deemed fully healthy.

Alvin Kamara, RB | NO (vs. WAS)

Kendre Miller cashed in an eight-yard touchdown last week after Alvin Kamara put this offense in a position to score; while that was annoying, I don’t think there’s much to read into.

Kamara has at least 16 carries and four catches in five straight games. The efficiency has been predictably underwhelming, and he hasn’t scored since mid-October, but he continues to volume his way to viability.

Life would be simpler if Derek Car was still under center, but I don’t think the overall structure of this offense is set to change in a major way, if for no other reason than they don’t have many other options. If their ranking of sixth in pass rate over expectation regresses, Kamara’s value declines but not enough for an actionable change on your end.

Kamara has played a big part in getting your team to this point, and I think you’re riding it out with him against the sixth-worst run defense in terms of success rate.

Ameer Abdullah, RB | LV (vs. ATL)

Ameer Abdullah carried the ball just one time in the Week 14 loss to the Bucs, putting his value squarely on his ability to earn targets in a spotty passing offense. We saw Abdullah catch five passes three weeks ago against the Broncos, and there’s the opportunity for that to happen again, especially if the Raiders fall behind, but this profile is far too thin to count on in most leagues.

If you don’t have Brock Bowers, you’re best off not playing a Raider. That’s true for this week, next week, and until otherwise noted.

Audric Estimé, RB | DEN (vs. IND)

We thought maybe that Audric Estimé was the lead back in Denver after he recorded 14 carries in the heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs in Week 10, but he has just 12 carries (15 touches) in the three games since.

There will be a fun conversation to be had this summer when it comes to which young Broncos running back we want to fall in love with, as Javonte Williams will be an unrestricted free agent once this season wraps up. But until then, there’s no realistic path to trusting any RB on Denver’s roster during your fantasy playoffs.

Austin Ekeler, RB | WAS (at NO)

Austin Ekeler was placed on injured reserve ahead of Week 13 (concussion), a designation that requires a four-game (not week) absence. The veteran is ineligible to return until the season finale with the Cowboys, meaning he won’t be of any help in most situations.

If you have a strong team and play in a standard ESPN league that extends through Week 18, you can stash Ekeler on your IR. But even in a situation like that, it’s going to be difficult to project him for double-digit touches should he return when first eligible.

Bijan Robinson, RB | ATL (at LV)

Even with the offense collapsing around him, Bijan Robinson has reached 20 toques in six of his past seven games and has scored four times over the past month. Last week, in what was eventually a 42-21 loss in Minnesota, the Falcons made it clear how they planned on competing — Robinson had six touches on the opening drive.

The Saints own the second-worst run defense in the NFL this season, and with Atlanta ranking seventh in rush rate over expectation, this could be an explosion spot for the former eighth overall pick.

We haven’t seen an explosive touch from Robinson in three straight games — I think there’s a good chance that changes on Sunday in the midst of a top-five performance.

Blake Corum, RB | LAR (at SF)

Blake Corum continues to get drives to work, but not enough to work into the Flex conversation. He’s on this roster to keep Kyren Williams fresh, not to replace him — and that makes him nothing more than a glorified handcuff at this point.

I have zero interest in forcing Corum’s 7-10 touches into my lineup, but I’d be fully invested in him if Williams were to get injured, something that is possible after a high usage week and now a short work week.

Braelon Allen, RB | NYJ (at JAX)

Braelon Allen was hyped up once we got news that Breece Hall was going to sit last week in Miami, and he was fine (15 touches for 81 yards), but he didn’t assume the bell-cow role we were hoping for.

In fact, Isaiah Davis actually had more carries through New York’s first two drives. That’s not to say that this is a committee situation should Hall sit again, but I’d be careful in pushing Allen into the top 20, even in a plus-matchup.

That said, I’d still start Allen as a Flex option in my situation. The Jags allow the ninth-most yards per carry before contact this season, and if this explosive rookie can get out in space, a triple-digit afternoon in terms of scrimmage yards is very possible.

Breece Hall, RB | NYJ (at JAX)

Breece Hall was forced to miss last week with a knee injury that has been nagging at him for a while. In his stead, New York’s running backs carried 21 times for 83 yards.

Hall was a star in the early going this season, but with just one top-15 finish since Week 8, a compromised version of him is a scary thought. Reports surfaced last last week that the eliminated Jets had no plans of shutting down their starting RB, and while we have no choice but to take them at their word in that regard, the fact that they felt the need to say that has me thinking that we could be looking at a multi-week absence.

If Hall finds a way onto the field this weekend, we can circle back to this, but as things stand right now, I’m not counting on having him at my disposal.

Brian Robinson Jr., RB | WAS (at NO)

Brian Robinson Jr. has eight top-25 finishes this season, and while that might not read as a game-breaking profile, it’s also one that will rarely put you behind the eight-ball. And this time of year, I’m willing to buy stability like that against a Saints defense that has underachieved for much of the past two months.

I’m aware that Robinson hasn’t had a multi-catch game since September and that there are limitations in this profile. But I’d argue that the hard-nosed running in Washington’s offense, given the versatility of a seemingly healthy Jayden Daniels, creates a floor that is more appealing than the capped ceiling is discouraging.

Here’s a list of running backs who have been atop their team’s depth chart all year and are averaging both 3.3 yards per carry after contact while posting a 35% score or better in our custom elusive rating:

• Derrick Henry
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• James Conner
• Saquon Barkley
• Brian Robinson Jr.

With Ekeler out for the remainder of the fantasy season, Robinson is going to be an RB2 at the very least every week moving forward. As for Sunday, I think he has a real chance to finish inside the top 15 at the position.

Bucky Irving, RB | TB (at LAC)

Bucky Irving is projecting as active this week and while I love the idea of getting to bet on the superior talent in Tampa Bay, there’s no denying the risk.

This is a tough matchup and Rachaad White has run well of late. Irving was featured heavily in the win over the Carolina Panthers, but prior to that, their most recent competitive game saw Irving and White split 32 touches down the middle.

I think that’s closer to what we can expect today and that lands them both in the Flex tier of my ranks — if I was confident either would lead, that player would move up half a dozen spots, but with the information we have, both carry too much role risk to rank that aggressively.

Irving has been ultra-impressive this season, but with plenty of depth behind him, Tampa Bay has the luxury of taking the cautious approach since he isn’t 100%.

Cam Akers, RB | MIN (vs. CHI)

Cam Akers remains the definitive handcuff to Aaron Jones and nothing more. He’ll slide into the back end of my RB2 rankings should Jones end up missing time for any reason, but he’ll remain comfortably outside of my top 30 any week that’s not the case — and that’s where we stand right now.

Chase Brown, RB | CIN (at TEN)

Chase Brown is the first player with 12+ carries AND 30+ receiving yards in five straight games since Saquon Barkley did it in 2018 for the Giants. Take it a step further and extend his numbers from that stretch, and we’re looking at 1,278 rushing yards and 95 catches.

Two players in the history of this great game have produced that stat line in a single season: LaDainian Tomlinson (2003) and Christian McCaffrey (2019).

Joe Burrow gets all of the attention, but Brown’s versatility and volume might be more valuable in fantasy circles, given the price paid on draft day. The Bengals aren’t likely to impact the NFL postseason, but I very much expect them to be involved with how fantasy leagues finish.

Chuba Hubbard, RB | CAR (vs. DAL)

Jonathon Brooks is done for the season with another ACL tear, leaving Chuba Hubbard in position to finish a great statistical season, even if there haven’t been many team wins.

He has seven RB1 finishes under his belt this year, and with game script not likely to be a major concern (Carolina is favored!), there’s no reason to shy away from the one piece on the Panthers’ offense with a consistent role.

Hubbard has authored his first 1,000-yard season of his career, and there is still production to be had down the stretch. He touched the ball 30 times in a losing effort last week — he should clear 20 with ease in this spot, which lands him as a strong RB2 for me this weekend.

D’Andre Swift, RB | CHI (at MIN)

D’Andre Swift is trending in the wrong direction with three straight finishes outside of the top 20 at the position, and I worry that doesn’t change this week with a matchup against the fifth-best run defense.

Roschon Johnson’s status (concussion) could prove to be awfully impactful here. Swift’s rushing value is moving in the wrong direction (four straight sub-15 carry games, three straight with under 40 rushing yards), and if he doesn’t have access to the work inside the 5-yard line, we’re talking about an awfully thin profile.

Pace of play often gets overlooked, but you’re a PFN follower, so that’s not the case for you. You’re aware that the Vikings operate at the fourth-slowest pace and that such a style of play carries with it possession downside.

Swift is a Flex play this week but not a must-start if you have nice receiver depth.

David Montgomery, RB | DET (vs. BUF)

David Montgomery has seen his yards per carry decrease in three straight games, but with three catches in four straight and a TD in 10 of 13, this profile is as rock solid as any Tier 3 running back in the game.

Montgomery is unlikely to break any given slate, but you’re rarely going to lose ground in playing him. Buffalo can be had on the ground, and while the Lions are capable of lighting up the scoreboard though the air, I’m expecting Montgomery to be the focal point of Detroit’s early-game offense.

The Bills’ defense is solid, but the Lions’ offense is elite — if you have a Detroit player, you’re starting him every week. Easy game.

Derrick Henry, RB | BAL (at NYG)

Derrick Henry hasn’t finished worse than RB18 in 10 of his past 12 games. The “game script” concerns have always followed The King around, but at this point, that’s kind of like a bald person fearing lice.

The ceiling is elite, and there’s no reason to think he can’t flirt with that as a two-touchdown favorite. Henry already has four top-five finishes on his 2024 résumé, a number I like to extend to five by the time Week 15 ends.

Devin Singletary, RB | NYG (vs. BAL)

I think we are done with Devin Singletary at this point.

This is a profile that includes seven straight single-digit carry games, and with a total of four targets over his past five games, there’s just no path to viable production as long as Tyrone Tracy Jr. is active.

Yes, in theory, Singletary is a single injury away from a lead role, but this isn’t an offense I’m tying up roster spots with unless they are actively producing. I wouldn’t hesitate to move on from the veteran back in favor of a receiver with home-run ability or a Cam Akers type who fills a similar role as a part of a better offense.

De’Von Achane, RB | MIA (at HOU)

This run with Tua Tagovailoa under center has resulted in De’Von Achane’s name being mentioned in the first half of Round 1 when it comes to projecting 2025 redraft results.

Achane’s mix of versatility and explosion is not only rare, but a perfect fit for this offense. On Sunday, he had six touches on Miami’s first eight plays on his way to a fourth straight top-15 finish at the position. He’s successfully graduated from very good player to matchup-proof asset, which is why I’m not sweating him facing the NFL’s fourth-best run defense.

I’ve bet this game to be the highest scoring on the Sunday slate, and I’m not sure you can get too much exposure to it. Enjoy this Achane run — you’re going to have to pay a premium next season if you want to experience this ride again.

Gus Edwards, RB | LAC (vs. TB)

Gus Edwards had just 10 carries over the weekend against the Chiefs, but a short TD plunge allowed him to save an otherwise forgettable day (36 rushing yards).

Due to a lack of versatility, there’s simply not many paths for Edwards to return RB2 value outside of multiple short scores. His role is safer than a player like Travis Etienne Jr. or Jaylen Warren, but with those two involved in the pass game, I’d rather Flex them this week and moving forward.

Isaiah Davis, RB | NYJ (at JAX)

Isaiah Davis was used next to Braelon Allen last week on the ground, and that means he deserves to be rostered until Breece Hall returns.

The rookie out of South Dakota State has scored in consecutive weeks, and while that isn’t going to sustain, it’s at least interesting that he’s been trusted with valuable touches.

Allen is more of a deep-league stash, but there isn’t much to be gained in starting him this week without much of a defined role in New York’s inconsistent offense.

Isiah Pacheco, RB | KC (at CLE)

Isiah Pacheco received 70% of the running back carries for the Chiefs last week in the win over the Chargers, a role that will land him as a top-15 play for me moving forward.

This Kansas City offense ranks 25th in red-zone efficiency this season (51%), checking in behind the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals. They need the angry running stylings of Pacheco, and he seems to be checking all of the health boxes that they are putting in front of him.

This season, the Browns rank third in pace of play on the offensive end, which could result in them giving the ball back to the Chiefs on a regular basis. Pacheco gave us 16 touches last week, and I’m labeling that as something of a floor for this weekend — I think you’re safe in starting him every week moving forward.

Isaac Guerendo, RB | SF (vs. LAR)

On Sunday, Isaac Guerendo became the first player in the NFL this season with a rushing TD and 50 receiving yards in a first quarter — not bad for his first week at the controls of Kyle Shanahan’s backfield.

A foot injury suffered late last week has Guerendo sitting out of practice to open Week 15. Should their third string RB miss time, Patrick Taylor Jr. and Ke’Shawn Vaughn are the next men up. At some point, this running game is likely to struggle, but I need to see it before projecting it.

Guerendo is going to check in as a solid RB2 for me if he plays. Should he sit, Taylor won’t be far behind.

The Rams are the fifth-worst rushing defense by yards allowed per game and third-down conversion rate on the ground. The 49ers should have success when they hand the ball off, it’s just who to determine will get the bulk of those attempts.

Deebo Samuel Sr. is likely to eat into the RB workload, making it possible that he is a cheat code for DFS showdown contests.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | DET (vs. BUF)

There’s nothing to say here when it comes to Jahmyr Gibbs and this Detroit powerhouse backfield. The second-year back has 100 scrimmage yards or a touchdown in eight straight games, and that’s with David Montgomery playing at a high level.

The touch count is never going to be elite, but with Detroit’s offense consistently in scoring position, it doesn’t matter. The Bills have, for the most part, encouraged their opponents to try to kill them with papercuts — the Lions would be happy to do so by giving their running backs 15+ touches apiece.

Jaleel McLaughlin, RB | DEN (vs. IND)

Jaleel McLaughlin is a part of this Denver backfield mess, which means you’re stuck in this weird holding pattern where you can’t play or cut any of them.

If I had to pick one to speculate on this week, McLaughlin would be my option. I like what he has shown in space, and with the Colts ranking as the fifth-best defense at creating pressure when blitzing, I could see a few designed screens and dumpoffs result in chunk gains.

You’re holding all exposure to this backfield and simply hoping that someone runs away with the lead role by the end of Week 15.

James Conner, RB | ARI (vs. NE)

James Conner has seen at least three targets in nine straight games and has 17+ carries in five of his past seven, making him the owner of one of the most consistent roles in the sport.

Might the Cardinals finally be operating in a positive game script? If that’s the case, I like Conner’s chances of giving you top-15 production against a below-average defense in all metrics.

Conner has cleared 100 total yards in each of Arizona’s past two wins — I think he makes it three straight on Sunday.

James Cook, RB | BUF (at DET)

James Cook was left out of the fun last week (eight touches for 29 yards), but I feel good about labeling a game that featured 86 points and a break-neck pace as rare.

This isn’t a good spot for Cook, that much we know. The Lions are the top run defense in terms of success rate by a wide margin, and both of these offenses operate at a bottom-seven pace, leaving us open to a possession count on the low side.

Even with those negative factors working against Buffalo’s RB1, I think you’re playing him. Cook has 11 rushing scores this season and has been good for multiple receptions more often than not. Ray Davis hasn’t eaten to his role as a featured back, and with Josh Allen constantly putting this team in position to score, Cook is a must play every week.

Javonte Williams, RB | DEN (vs. IND)

Sean Payton doesn’t want his opponents to know what is coming on the ground, which means us as fantasy managers are fighting an uphill battle. Over the past two games, Javonte Williams has turned 12 carries into — checks notes — -1 rushing yard.

As if that wasn’t bad enough, Williams’ six targets have netted just nine yards. I’m not 100% sure that if we condense all Denver RB production into a single back that it would rank favorably, but with three backs splitting that work, you can’t play any of them with confidence.

Jaylen Warren, RB | PIT (at PHI)

Jaylen Warren is nearing Flex value in PPR formats. He’s not quite there yet, but with at least 9.8 expected points in seven straight games, there’s a reasonable floor to consider in the right situation.

He cracked the 50% snap share threshold on Sunday against the Browns (51.6%); that’s encouraging, even if the numbers weren’t all that impressive. The Eagles are the eighth-best defense at limiting yards per RB target and third-best in terms of passer rating on those attempts. This isn’t the matchup for me to rank Warren as a starter, but we aren’t far from that being the case.

Jaylen Wright, RB | MIA (at HOU)

The Dolphins have gone all in on the De’Von Achane experience, and while that has rendered Jaylen Wright useless, I still think the rookie should remain rostered.

Raheem Mostert isn’t healthy (hip), and that means that the Achane role if vacated for any reason is all Wright’s. There’s no stand-alone value in this profile — he’s strictly a strategic piece to hold at the end of your roster.

Jeremy McNichols, RB | WAS (at NO)

Austin Ekeler is done for the remainder of the fantasy season, and that is why Jeremy McNichols’ name popped onto fantasy radars.

I’m not sure we need to waste time chasing the secondary usage in this backfield. We aren’t going to see this team run the ball 45 times like they did last week with regularity, but even in a high-volume game like that, the usage was all over the place:

• Brian Robinson Jr.: 16 carries (103 yards, TD)
• Chris Rodriguez Jr.: 13 carries (94 yards, TD)
• Jayden Daniels: nine carries (34 yards, TD)
• McNichols: six carries (32 yards)
• Dyami Brown: one carry (four yards)

Robinson is going to carry the scoring equity in this offense, and while he’s underwhelmed as a pass catcher this season, McNichols has earned just three targets this season.

With a 24.7% snap share last week (season: 21.5%), there’s no reason to consider McNichols a legitimate RB handcuff. You can find more utility on your waiver wire, no matter how deep your league is.

Jerome Ford, RB | CLE (vs. KC)

Jerome Ford out-carried Nick Chubb in the first half last week, and while I’m not comfortable labeling him as the best bet to lead this team in work moving forward, he’s worked into enough of a role to at least be added.

We know there is some versatility in this profile; with Jameis Winston on the short list of players who could lead the league in passing attempts for the rest of the season, a player like Ford could churn out some PPR value.

For now, I’m not considering Ford for my Flex spot in any league type, but the path for that change is clear, and it is why he should be on a roster in your league.

J.K. Dobbins, RB | LAC (vs. TB)

J.K. Dobbins’ fantasy season is over as a knee injury has once again landed him on injured reserve. There’s a chance he is a factor in Los Angeles’ playoff games, and maybe that makes him a sleeper in postseason fantasy formats, but as we come down the stretch, there’s no use in holding Dobbins. Take a flier on a handcuff back or a deep shot receiver that you can slide in if need be over Dobbins.

Joe Mixon, RB | HOU (vs. MIA)

• In Week 13, Joe Mixon ran 20 times.
• In Week 13, Joe Mixon ran for a touchdown.

It’s a simple game. Mixon has done both of those things seven times this season, two more than any other player in the NFL this season and the most in an entire season by a Texan this millennium.

C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins are as capable as any duo of taking over a game and stringing together highlight plays. However, by providing balance and versatility, I don’t think it’s hard to label Mixon as the most valuable member of Houston’s offense.

The man has been a top-eight RB in six of his past eight games and is as good as it gets outside of the two backs battling for Offensive Player of the Year honors.

The age curve is a guide, not a gospel. Mixon is a reminder that the only rule to follow blindly in the world of fantasy sports is that no rule is to be blindly followed.

You’re riding Mixon until the wheels fall off. The next two weeks are brutal matchups, but if you ran scared from prohibitive trends, you’re not enjoying a career season from this 28-year-old.

Jonathan Taylor, RB | IND (at DEN)

If you drafted Jonathan Taylor in the top 20 this summer, odds are good that your team is either struggling or is being carried by a strong supporting cast. The former All-Pro has just one finish better than RB12 this season (Week 3) and has failed to reach per-touch PPR expectations in five straight games (his last game with more than 12 receiving yards came in September).

All of that said, is there any doubt that the Colts commit to a rested version of Taylor coming out of the bye as a reasonable underdog?

Two teams that ranked high in pre-game rush rate over expectation at the time of their meeting with the Broncos saw their running back produce profits for their fantasy managers: J.K. Dobbins totaled 102 yards with a score in Week 6, and Derrick Henry racked up 133 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

I think it’s reasonable to worry about Taylor’s status as an elite back in this Anthony Richardson-led system, but it’s not fair to regress him to the point where he’s not in your lineup. There’s the potential for 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in this spot — if either of those things happens, I think we are just fine.

Jonathon Brooks, RB | CAR (vs. DAL)

Jonathon Brooks’ rookie season was delayed due to recovery from a November torn ACL in his right knee and, less than 13 months later, he’s back in the same position.

This is a brutal blow for a talented kid that we are now going to have to wait longer to see what he can do with a reasonable workload. Given how recoveries work in the NFL these days, it’s reasonable to think that we see him in a Nick Chubb role next season, but that’s not going to make him a rosterable asset in redraft leagues with the well compensated Chuba Hubbard leading the way.

Josh Jacobs, RB | GB (at SEA)

Josh Jacobs checks every box of a league-winning fantasy running back. Every. Single. One.

• Role
• Offensive Trajectory
• Form
• Versatility
• Team Motivation

The Seahawks are the fifth-worst run defense in terms of success rate, giving Jacobs a floor that is close to elite this weekend. He’s coming off of an extended week and that makes him a great bet to extend his run of 18+ carry games to five straight. If good Geno Smith shows up, no worries, Jacobs has four games with at least four receptions this season and can get you home that way.

RB PPR leaders, Weeks 11-14:

• Saquon Barkley: 114.1 (!)
• Josh Jacobs: 98.3
• De’Von Achane: 81.0

There isn’t much competition in the way for work in this offense that ranks behind only the Eagles in rush rate over expectation. We saw Jacobs post a career year in 2022, a season in which he rattled off two three-game runs of 100+ rushing yards.

Could such a streak be in store for the stretch run this year? I’m not saying it’s predictive, but during one of those streaks in ‘22 was the best game of his career (303 yards and two touchdowns) … a win in Seattle.

Interesting.

Justice Hill, RB | BAL (at NYG)

I preached the ignoring of potential game script issues with Lamar Jackson, and I stand by that. But Justice Hill’s stock isn’t nearly as stable.

Hill doesn’t have more than five carries in a game this season (two more targets than rush attempts this year), and that tracks. Why take Derrick Henry off the field in a running situation?

Is there a world in which Hill repeats his season-high seven targets in Week 11 (at Pittsburgh) next week for the rematch and gives you low-end PPR value? We can cross that bridge when we get to it, but for Week 15, you’d be wise to look just about anywhere else for double-digit PPR points.

Hill turned seven touches into 6.1 PPR points before the bye, and that’s about what I’m penciling in this weekend.

Kareem Hunt, RB | KC (at CLE)

It was a nice run. Kareem Hunt filled an important role in the middle of the season, and that was helpful, but you don’t need to hold onto him at this point.

• Week 11 at Buffalo Bills: 69.2% snap share
• Week 12 at Carolina Panthers: 54.4% snap share
• Week 13 vs. Las Vegas Raiders: 40.3% snap share
• Week 14 vs. Los Angeles Chargers: 30.8% snap share

On Sunday night, Patrick Mahomes had more rushing yards than Hunt and Samaje Perine had more targets. There isn’t a role available, and this offense isn’t exactly the juggernaut that we were hoping for.

I’m expecting Isiah Pacheco to only see his role expand the closer we get to the postseason, and any usage added to his profile takes food off Hunt’s plate.

Kenneth Walker III, RB | SEA (vs. GB)

Kenneth Walker III missed last week with an ankle/calf injury and his status for this week is TBD. Zach Chabonnet filled the full version of Walker’s role (29 touches and seven catches on seven targets), and while I don’t think we have a changing of the guard in Seattle should everyone be healthy, the idea of this being a committee and/or hot-hand situation is certainly there.

Walker has had his health issues in the past, and it’s not as if he was overwhelmingly productive before getting banged up (Weeks 8-13: 31.1% below PPR expectations).

Keep an eye on every update coming out of Seattle this week. They are going to want to establish the run to help neutralize Green Bay’s opportunistic secondary, but how they go about that is to be determined. Should we get a clean bill of health for Walker, he’ll be ranked ahead of Charbonnet for me, but the gap won’t be nearly what it was a month ago.

Kimani Vidal, RB | LAC (vs. TB)

Kimani Vidal played 52.6% of the snaps on Sunday night, his first game with a snap share over 27%. The field time is good to see, but he still hasn’t recorded more than eight touches in a game this season. That means he can’t be trusted.

Vidal, of course, deserves to be rostered. This is an offense with plenty of potential and plenty of backfield uncertainty. I was encouraged by him running 15 routes against the Chiefs as I believe that is his path to the Flex conversation — Gus Edwards lacks versatility, and we know Jim Harbaugh wants his fate in the hands of Justin Herbert.

Kyren Williams, RB | LAR (at SF)

Can Kyren Williams assume an elite workload on a short week after handling 31 touches against the Bills on Sunday?

Los Angeles played on a Thursday earlier this season, and they had no hesitation in giving him 28 touches after recording 21 the previous Sunday, so I have no real concerns when it comes to volume.

The 49ers own a bottom-10 rush defense in terms of EPA, success rate, and touchdown percentage, all signs that point to another big Williams game. Puka Nacua’s production explosion stands to potentially take some touchdown equity away from the running game, but it also elevates the drive distance expectation.

This is an offense I want a piece of, and Williams is certainly a big part of the Rams — he’s to be viewed as an RB1 the rest of the way without a second thought.

Najee Harris, RB | PIT (at PHI)

Najee Harris has a rushing TD or 4+ targets in seven of his past eight games, and with the Steelers offense trending in a positive direction, that role is enough to lock him into lineups even with limited efficiency (season: 3.9 yards per carry).

Jaylen Warren is healthy but has yet to eat into Harris’ role in a significant way. Through six Pittsburgh drives last week, Harris had 103.1% of their RB rushing yards.

You read that correctly.

Harris is as good a bet for 15-17 carries and 2-4 targets as there is outside of the top tier at the position, and while the Eagles’ defense is moving in the right direction, Pittsburgh’s offense will be looking to drag out possessions. That puts Harris in a good spot to flirt with 20 touches again on Sunday.

Nick Chubb, RB | CLE (vs. KC)

I can’t imagine feeling good about starting Nick Chubb in any matchup right now; that, by definition, puts him on the chopping block if you’re in desperation mode.

Chubb doesn’t have a 20-yard gain this season and has been benched for extended stretches over the past month. This offense has embraced the chaos that comes with Jameis Winston being under center, and that means a high pass rate over expectation — Chubb has just five catches this season.

The Chiefs are the third-best run defense in the league and are likely to be operating with a lead, thus dragging down Cleveland’s projected rush total even further.

It’s good to see Chubb healthy and on an NFL field, but you’re in trouble if you’re counting on him to contribute to your fantasy squad.

Rachaad White, RB | TB (at LAC)

Rachaad White has had an up-and-down season, but with Bucky Irving battling a back injury, he could see his role peak at the perfect time.

White has eight touchdowns over his past seven games, and he’s even showcased some rushing upside in the first two games this month (28 carries for 166 yards, highlighted by a disrespectful stiff arm last week). I’m not sure that level of efficiency on the ground is here to stay, especially against the seventh-best rush defense by success rate, but if the volume looks anything like last week (17 carries), there is RB1 potential here.

Based on early reporting out of Tampa, I’m comfortable in projecting White to lead this backfield in carries, regardless of whether Irving plays or not. It’s not an ideal matchup, but if we are talking 15+ carries alongside his consistent efficiency in the passing game (89.1% catch rate this season), it’ll be close to impossible to justify benching White this week with your season on the line.

Raheem Mostert, RB | MIA (at HOU)

Raheem Mostert was a DNP last week due to a hip injury and can be left on fantasy waiver wires at this point.

Not only is the veteran back battling a predictable injury, he doesn’t have a role available for him. Jaylen Wright has been more involved lately, and with Tua Tagovailoa finding his form through the air, this is an explosive offense that is likely to continue to prioritize De’Von Achane in a significant way.

Mostert’s 2023 stat line was a thing of beauty, but none of those touchdowns are going to help you down the stretch of this season. I’d rather hold onto a Sean Tucker type to conclude the 2024 season.

Ray Davis, RB | BUF (at DET)

Ray Davis didn’t get a single touch in the Josh Allen superhero game last week, and that tracks. He’s a change-of-pace back to James Cook, but if this offense is going to ask Allen to wear the cape, there’s really no reason to involve the rookie RB2.

At this time of year, I value volume on these bad offenses above efficiency, something that makes Pollard a viable starter in all formats for me. The fact that the Bengals rank third-worst in defensive success rate against the run is a bonus and has him flirting with my top 10 this week alongside names like Alvin Kamara and James Cook.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | NE (at ARI)

Rhamondre Stevenson finished three of his first five games this season as an RB1, but he’s been better than the RB18 in just two games since. Those extended struggles include his last four contests, a run of games that has seen him produce 33.7% fewer fantasy points than expected.

The hole in this profile is one that I thought we could look past coming into the season. During this recent four-game dip in value, Stevenson has just 42 receiving yards, a lack of versatility that is concerning when you consider that Drake Maye is going to soak up some of the rushing and scoring equity.

The fact that I don’t trust the Cardinals to pull ahead in a significant way and that they rank as the fourth-worst run defense per success rate has me ranking Stevenson as a viable Flex option.

Is that more of a situational ranking than a talent play? It is, and there’s nothing wrong with that — you need to beg, borrow, and steal to get your fantasy points this time of year.

Rico Dowdle, RB | DAL (at CAR)

Rico Dowdle has run for 100+ yards in consecutive games, making him the first Cowboy to do so since Tony Pollard (Weeks 8-10, 2022). Between those two instances, a non-Cowboys RB registered consecutive 100-yard rushing games 31 times.

This team hasn’t valued the running back position all season long, but they’ve been backed into a corner with Cooper Rush under center, and Dowdle has stepped up in a big way.

The game script is a reasonable concern most weeks but not against the Panthers. Carolina owns the lowest defensive success rate against the run this season; with Dowdle projecting as a top-10 back in terms of touch count this week, he’s a must-start across all formats.

Roschon Johnson, RB | CHI (at MIN)

The process of playing Johnson at any point is simple: touchdown chasing. Six of his 48 carries this season have resulted in a one-yard score, otherwise offering very little.

Johnson sat out last week with a concussion, and it’s fair to worry about his status as he was unable to practice in any capacity, even with the mini-bye. Generally speaking, I’m in favor of punting on a role like this and chasing a player with a higher touch/target projection.

All that said — he has been ruled out for Week 15, which means I’m moving up D’Andre Swift a few spots in my rankings.

Saquon Barkley, RB | PHI (vs. PIT)

Saquon Barkley’s ineptitude from the one-yard line will go down as one of the great mysteries amid a season in which his name has been in the middle of the MVP discussion.

This season, carries from the 1-yard line:

Jalen Hurts: 13
Saquon Barkley: 3

This season, failures from the 1-yard line:

Jalen Hurts: 3
Saquon Barkley: 3

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) December 8, 2024

But we are truly nitpicking at this point. Barkley has already set the Eagles’ record for rushing yards in a season and is showing no signs of fatigue (100+ rushing yards in seven of his past eight games with the lone exception being the result of a 28-point blowout over the Cowboys)

The Eagles are hyper-focused on not repeating last season, and that should play into your favor with Barkley’s work unlikely to be capped at any point during the fantasy postseason.

Tank Bigsby, RB | JAX (vs. NYJ)

Tank Bigsby has established himself as the top dog in this offense, and while it’s fair to worry about its overall potency, sheer volume this time of year is valuable in an RB2 sort of way.

Bigsby had an eight-yard touchdown and a fourth-down conversion in the fourth quarter last week against the Titans, solidifying himself as a bell cow that we can trust. At 5.0 yards per carry this season, the second-year back projects as a top-20 play against a defense that ranks in the bottom five in both rush count and rush TD rate through 14 weeks.

For your mental health, I encourage you to remember a very important thing about fantasy: just because you started a player doesn’t mean you have to put yourself through the viewing experience of a Jacksonville game. You can check in occasionally, make sure that Bigsby is getting the touches, and be on your way, but the numbers should be there by the end of 60 minutes.

Tony Pollard, RB | TEN (vs. CIN)

Tony Pollard hasn’t been the picture of efficiency, but he has more 10+ yard rush attempts over the past three weeks than carries that have failed to gain yardage and is averaging over two red-zone touches per game.

Travis Etienne Jr., RB | JAX (vs. NYJ)

The Jaguars couldn’t run the ball at all last week in Tennessee (26 carries for 71 yards), but it was clear who the team trusted with the result in the balance.

Travis Etienne Jr. was on the field for 48.4% of their offensive snaps last week, a rate that can return value if he was heavily involved, but he’s not. Tank Bigsby out-carried him 18-4 last week; while the preseason starter was able to turn four targets into four catches and 50 yards, he’s profiling as the accent piece these days.

I’m in no hurry to play Jaguars, and that’s especially true for the wrong side of a committee in an offense with an implied total of 18.5 points this week.

Trey Benson, RB | ARI (vs. NE)

Trey Benson was a logical pick-and-stash option all season long, but James Conner has stayed as healthy as ever, and that has left the rookie on the bench.

Benson isn’t close to stand-alone value (under five carries in each game during Arizona’s three-game skid) and doesn’t need to be held if you need value out of every player. That said, if you have a loaded team and/or a bye this week, I’m very interested in adding a handcuff like this as a luxury piece at the end of your roster.

Tyjae Spears, RB | TEN (vs. CIN)

Tyjae Spears touched the ball seven times in the loss to the Jaguars and netted as many yards and Tony Pollard had touches (23).

I continue to think that Spears is an interesting long-term option should he ever be given the lion’s share of a backfield, but with Pollard signed for another two seasons, that time doesn’t appear to be close.

Tyler Allgeier, RB | ATL (at LV)

Tyler Allgeier scored from six yards out on Atlanta’s first drive last week, his first score in a month, and he ran hard against a strong Vikings defense (nine carries for 63 yards).

The performance was good to see and is a reminder that he can be Zach Charbonnet-like should he be given the opportunity, but we aren’t in a position to project that right now with Bijan Robinson at full strength.

His proximity to a top-20 role is why he needs to be rostered, but you’re not playing him as long as the RB1 is at full strength.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB | NYG (vs. BAL)

Tyrone Tracy Jr. bailed you out with a late touchdown last week, but all scores matter, and as the lead back in this offense, he put himself in a position to be the beneficiary of that break.

The rookie back has been a viable option in four straight games; while Devin Singletary gets some work, he’s clearly a change-of-pace option more than a realistic threat to Tracy’s value.

The Ravens rank as the second-best run defense in terms of success rate, and that’s a concern, but we have seen Tracy earn 17 targets on 73 routes over his past three games. That gives him an alternate path to top-20 production that I feel good about.

Zach Charbonnet, RB | SEA (vs. GB)

Zach Charbonnet looked great last week against a vulnerable Cardinals defense, racking up 193 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns on his 29 touches. This Seattle backfield doesn’t have to be complicated — if Kenneth Walker III is again sidelined, Charbonnet is a fine RB2. If that’s not the case, neither is going to rank as a top-20 running back.

The team has been committed to Walker as its lead back, but after Charbonnet showed well last week, not to mention Walker’s proven fragility, this could well be a 60/40 committee situation when both are active.

You’ll need to keep tabs on this situation, as it is one of the most impactful situations of the week and could easily swing matchups

If possible, I’d keep him rostered because he is a James Cook rolled ankle away from being a locked-and-loaded RB2. That said, he can be let go by managers who are simply focused on surviving this week — with Cook currently healthy, Davis isn’t close to sniffing starting lineups.

Week 15 Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen, WR | CAR (vs. DAL)

Adam Thielen has reached 19 PPR points in consecutive games, the first player 34 years or older to do that since Larry Fitzgerald (2017). The storytelling stats are nice, but I have less confidence in the predictive ones.

Thielen has been thriving based on slot usage and extreme efficiency. The slot role is going to be his for the rest of the season, but once Jalen Coker returns, his volume of looks in that spot is destined to decline.

As for the efficiency, an 81% catch rate over the past two weeks is difficult to project to sustain in any situation, let alone a Bryce Young-led offense. The Cowboys’ defense has shown life since Micah Parsons returned to the mix in Week 10; if the Cowboys are afforded the opportunity to pin their ears back, Thielen’s fantasy stock could come crashing back to Earth this week.

Keep an eye on Coker’s status. If he sits again, Thielen will elevate into the Darnell Mooney tier of my ranks, a range in which I’m comfortable Flexing. If that’s not the case, he’s going to struggle to crack my top 40 at the position.

A.J. Brown, WR | PHI (vs. PIT)

What was that last weekend? Four targets on 26 routes against the Panthers?

A.J. Brown has seen his expected point total decline in three straight games, and while he is trending in the wrong direction, he’s one big play away from getting on track. He’s scored just once in his past seven games, but with a deep catch in every game this season and an end-zone look in the majority of his contests, I’d recommend simply riding this cold stretch out.

As is the case with Detroit’s skill position players, Philadelphia can be a victim of its own success. This team can and has won without Brown putting up video game numbers. You have to swallow some risk to get the reward — don’t overreact, things are going to be just fine. This could be a “get right” spot, with the Steelers having allowed a touchdown on 13 of 17 red-zone trips over the past five weeks.

Alec Pierce, WR | IND (at DEN)

Playing in the thin air of Denver, potentially lining up across Pat Surtain II, and relying on Anthony Richardson’s right arm — Alec Pierce’s profile isn’t very easy to support with confidence this weekend.

Maybe the bye week ups the creativity of the Colts’ offense, and they put Pierce in a position to win downfield. But are you comfortable in betting your fantasy season on Richardson cashing in such an opportunity?

The burner has just three catches on 10 targets over his past two games. I have concerns when it comes to efficiency, volume, and scoring equity. Outside of that, Pierce is a great play.

Christian Watson (at SEA) and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (vs. CIN) are two deep-ball receivers I prefer over Pierce this week, with Wan’Dale Robinson (vs. BAL) and DeMario Douglas (at ARI) checking in as “boring” options who I have much more confidence in over Indy’s riskiest option.

Amari Cooper, WR | BUF (at DET)

In his first four games with Buffalo, Amari Cooper saw 13 targets on 73 routes. In the Week 14 loss to the Rams, the veteran receiver saw 14 passes thrown his way on 26 routes.

Was this a matchup thing or the start of a beautiful connection with Josh Allen? Only time will tell on that front — it’s worth noting that Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman were both inactive, not to mention a game script that demanded aggression.

Not all of those things are going to align weekly, but they could be in play this week to some degree. The Lions are a good bet to push the Bills, and while one or both of his teammates could be back in the mix, their extended absences have me pessimistic that they will return at full strength this weekend.

The Lions are the best red-zone pass defense in the league; that caps the upside case for a receiver who plays on an offense that wants to rush the ball into the end zone as it is, but I think the plus volume sticks. That’s enough to Flex him with a decent level of confidence.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | DET (vs. BUF)

Amon-Ra St. Brown has gone three straight games without a score, and this is coming on the heels of a franchise-record eight-in-a-row stretch with a TD.

I’m not the least bit worried, and a matchup with a defense that allows the fourth-highest red-zone completion percentage (65.1%) could easily see this streak coming to an end. The Bills make their bones on the defensive end by taking away your chunk plays on the perimeter — the Lions are the type of versatile offense that is happy to take its medicine.

Could this be St. Brown’s third double-digit reception game of the season?

Brandin Cooks, WR | DAL (at CAR)

Brandin Cooks has scored in consecutive games and seems to have the inside track at WR2 honors in this offense. In his two games back, the veteran has earned 10 targets; that’s impressive — the 19 yards gained in those games, less so.

Cooks hasn’t reached 20 receiving yards in a game since the season opener, and even if he breaks that trend this week, that doesn’t mean he finishes as a Flex-worthy option. The Panthers are the worst defense in terms of creating pressure and, for me, that just gives Cooper Rush more time to lock on CeeDee Lamb or the tight ends.

If I’m hellbent on starting a veteran receiver with a limited ceiling, I’m going in the direction of JuJu Smith-Schuster every time.

Brian Thomas Jr., WR | JAX (vs. NYJ)

Brian Thomas Jr. was an afterthought in the first half last week.

“Afterthought” isn’t accurate. Sorry. He wasn’t a thought at all. The talented rookie didn’t have a single reception during the first 30 minutes against the Titans, something that is close to inexcusable.

Safe to say, this fact was addressed at halftime:

Thomas finished with eight receptions after intermission — tied for the fourth-most by a rookie in the second half of a game during the 2000s.

So, whaddaya say, Mac? Maybe we look in the direction of the most talented skill player on this roster from the jump this time around? I love that Jacksonville was able to scheme up opportunities for BTJ last week because I think they are going to need to do that again in this spot against the second-best blitzing defense in the league.

I’m choosing to buy the second-half production more than fear whatever the first half was last week, and that lands him inside of my top 30 this week.

Calvin Ridley, WR | TEN (vs. CIN)

You can be worried about this Titans passing game all you want, but you can’t sweat Calvin Ridley’s usage. The team’s clear-cut WR1 has caught a deep pass in six of his past seven games and, since the middle of October, has five games with at least five targets 15+ yards downfield.

We obviously want to marry quality and quantity when it comes to targets, but a high number of chances can be enough when discussing an elite athlete like Ridley.

Last week, we got more evidence that the Bengals still lack the ability to take away top options. The similarly limited Cowboys marched down the field to open Monday Night Football with three of Cooper Rush’s completions, including the 11-yard touchdown, going in the direction you’d expect — CeeDee Lamb.

Lamb finished with the best WR stat line produced against the Bengals this season and continued the theme of big-play receivers piling up PPR points against Cincy.

The QB limitations make it impossible for me to rank Ridley as a WR1, but he’s a rock-solid WR2 whom I rank in the same range as other stars in limited offenses (Malik Nabers and Davante Adams).

Cedric Tillman, WR | CLE (vs. KC)

Cedric Tillman hasn’t practiced in consecutive weeks (concussion) and entered this week still in protocol. He was not able to clear it and will miss Week 15.

Given how productive Jerry Jeudy has been under Jameis Winston’s leadership, I worry that the deep role Tillman left won’t be there when he returns.

For the season, Tillman owns a 12.3-yard aDOT and has seen two of his three scores come on deep passes. For me, he’s the most volatile receiver in a volatile offense. I’ll pass unless I’m in the most desperate of situations.

That’s not a knock on Tillman as much as it is confidence in myself to put together a starting lineup that carries a stable enough floor where I don’t need to roll the dice on a profile like this in a tough spot in order to be competitive.

That said, I’m 100% holding onto Tillman. If you thought the Browns had to put their foot on the gas to keep up with Bo Nix on Monday night, what happens with Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Tua Tagovailoa left on the schedule after this week?

Tillman isn’t the type of player I’m rushing back into lineups, but assuming health, he’s going to carry plenty of ceiling appeal during the most important stretch of the fantasy season.

CeeDee Lamb, WR | DAL (at CAR)

CeeDee Lamb is doing his best to keep this offense (and your fantasy team) afloat. Cooper Rush is limited in a variety of ways, but his WR1 has either scored or seen double-digit passes throw his way in five of six games under the backup, production that is above what most of us penciled in after Dak Prescott was lost for the season.

Dallas is doing all they can to get the ball in the hands of their difference-maker (one rush attempt per game during this stretch with Rush). While it’s fair to worry about the quality of opportunity, that might not matter this week.

Among the receivers to clear 20 PPR points against the Panthers this season are DJ Moore, Tre Tucker, and Jakobi Meyers. Lamb is a special talent — that allows him to retain top-10 WR status despite playing in an offense that is close to inept.

Christian Watson, WR | GB (at SEA)

Christian Watson has cleared a 90% snap share in consecutive games with Romeo Doubs (concussion) sidelined, and if his teammate continues to be a spectator, you can entertain the idea of Flexing this boom/bust receiver.

I was encouraged by how the Packers came out of the locker room Thursday night in Detroit after a disappointing first 30 minutes:

Packers’ first possession of the second half:

• Josh Jacobs rush, -1 yards
• Jordan Love to Christian Watson, 59 yards
• Jordan Love to Christian Watson, incomplete
• Jordan Love to Christian Watson, incomplete
• Jordan Love to Tucker Kraft, TD

If we can lock in featured usage with Watson, I’ll happily roll the dice on his physical tools against a low-blitz defense like Seattle where time should be available to earn targets down the field.

Of course, there’s risk. Not only with the player but the offense as a whole. Watson had 64.5% of Green Bay’s first-half receiving yards last week and had all of 1.0 PPR points to show for it.

This offense can be potent, but it can also be silent. So when you weigh the environmental risk with the sporadic target-earning abilities, Watson is a tough sell if the WR room for the Packers is full.

That hasn’t been the case of late, and that adds enough opportunity potential to go this way in a pinch. But if we get word that Doubs is set to return without major restrictions, I’ll be throwing darts elsewhere this weekend.

Cooper Kupp, WR | LAR (at SF)

It’s not quite the same, but expectations need to be adjusted for Cooper Kupp in a similar way that they need to be tweaked for DK Metcalf. Both are great receivers with plenty of production left in their profiles, but neither is projecting as a co-WR1 in his offense any longer.

Even with Puka Nacua taking a step toward true stardom, Kupp has earned at least eight targets in three of his past four games. Matthew Stafford is more than capable of sustaining two viable receivers, and I expect that to be the case in a matchup that is nowhere near as intimidating as it was to open the season.

Through 14 weeks, the 49ers allow the fifth-highest red-zone completion percentage (the lone spot where I trust Kupp to win over Nacua) and are the fourth-worst at creating pressure when blitzing. A comfortable Stafford can pick apart any defense, and we know he funnels everything through his star receivers.

Nacua and Kupp were both special last week, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if they both finished Week 15 as top-20 producers at the position again.

Courtland Sutton, WR | DEN (vs. IND)

Courtland Sutton has seen at least eight targets in six straight games, but he’s not just a volume play.

During this run as the alpha in Denver, he’s produced 31.4% over expectations, meshing well with the developmental patterns of Bo Nix in an offense that ranks seventh in pass rate over expectation through 14 weeks.

The volume creates a nice floor, the efficiency gives us stability, and the matchup opens up access to a top-10 week. This season, the Colts are allowing the seventh-highest red-zone completion percentage (63.8%), a weakness I like Sean Payton to pick on given this offense’s struggles to run the ball.

I’m betting Nix’s over in pass attempts and completions — if those bets come through, you’re going to be thrilled to have Sutton in your lineup.

Darius Slayton, WR | NYG (vs. BAL)

Darius Slayton has totaled just four catches on 14 targets over his past three games. I’m willing to overlook efficiency concerns in the name of volume for an elite role like Malik Nabers’, but Slayton doesn’t get that benefit of the doubt.

Last week, Slayton was busy streaking down the field (16.2 aDOT) and nearly paid it off with a chunk gain. If I were confident that this offense would get above-average quarterback play, I’d overlook a missed deep target and cite this role as one that carries enough upside to consider in the right position.

What’s the problem? I’m not at all confident that is the case.

Darnell Mooney, WR | ATL (at LV)

Darnell Mooney cleared 100 yards in the first half last week against the Vikings, continuing a season that I don’t think any of us saw coming. He already has set a career-high in touchdown receptions for a season and is just 183 yards from the best yardage total during his five years in the NFL.

The 21.3% on-field target share is suitable if Kirk Cousins can figure his life out, and the 12.8-yard aDOT has me optimistic in this specific matchup against a defense that struggles to create pressure, even when bringing an extra player (32.4% pressure rate when blitzing, second-lowest). Cousins is struggling to properly process defensive schemes right now, but I’m confident that if he is just sitting in the pocket, he can find Mooney down the field as he separates.

Keenan Allen and Adam Thielen are receivers that come with similar quarterback risk but less per-target upside — I have Mooney ranked just ahead of both of them as low-end Flex options.

Davante Adams, WR | NYJ (at JAX)

Over the past months, Davante Adams has seen elite volume (43 targets in four games), but at 6.5 yards per target, the efficiency continues to underwhelm.

He and Aaron Rodgers connected on a 3-yard score last week on a play that very much resembled their time together in a different shade of green, giving us a flicker of hope that there is strong production to chase down the stretch of this season.

I’m cautiously optimistic. The Jets have dialed back Adams’ aDOT significantly, and while that is an issue when it comes to making the upside case, it should result in an increase in efficiency with time. I’ve got Adams ranked in the same low-end WR2 tier as DK Metcalf and Zay Flowers for this week, talented players with a range of outcomes that are just large enough to make us sweat.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR | KC (at CLE)

After a low usage debut with the Chiefs, DeAndre Hopkins has seven end-zone targets in six games and is being used in a very fantasy-friendly way.

Skeptics will point to a 44.4% catch rate over the past two weeks as an issue, but I’d argue that the 29% on-field target share in those games is more impactful and that the chemistry between him and Patrick Mahomes will take care of itself with time.

I have Nuk ranked at the top of the tier with team WR1s who carry more QB volatility, names like Brian Thomas Jr., Jayden Reed, and DJ Moore.

Deebo Samuel Sr., WR | SF (vs. LAR)

As the injuries pile up, Deebo Samuel Sr.’s projected role only becomes more fantasy-friendly. He was handed the rock five times last week against the Bears, his highest total since Week 1, and while it didn’t net much (13 rushing yards), I’m perfectly OK with betting on that role.

The Rams are the second-worst pass defense in terms of yards per attempt, thus making every target worth more this week than most for Samuel. Efficiency has been an issue for much of this season, but I think you’re playing him as a Flex option in most formats, understanding that 10 opportunities (targets + rush attempts) are very possible, if not likely.

Jauan Jennings is my favorite receiver in San Francisco these days, but I trust Brock Purdy enough from a consistency point of view to get all three of his pass-catchers home.

Demarcus Robinson, WR | LAR (at SF)

That’s now three straight games with no more than three targets and five straight without more than two grabs for Demarcus Robinson. If you’re holding onto Los Angeles’ WR3 at this point, you’re stashing him as a way to chase TD equity.

That’s fine, it’s just awfully thin.

Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua vacuumed in 73.3% of Matthew Stafford’s targets last week, making the volume a near impossibility when it comes to projection math. Robinson has seen a deep target in every game this season, and while that’s great, it’s not so much when discussing a matchup with a top-three defense against those long passes in terms of passer rating, completion percentage, yards per attempt, and touchdown rate.

I’m never going to get there on a player like Robinson, which means I’ve missed out on some Flex-worthy production at points this season. If you’re less risk-averse than I, this is still a tough sell — save your good vibes for a home game against the Cardinals in Week 17.

DeMario Douglas, WR | NE (at ARI)

DeMario Douglas hasn’t reached 65 receiving yards since Week 6, as he fills a weird void of a traditionally consistent role in a non-traditional offense that lacks consistency.

That’s simply not ideal. Douglas’ 77.4% catch rate since the beginning of November is a step in the right direction for PPR managers, and a matchup against a Cardinals defense that ranks below league average when defending the slot in yards per attempt, yards per completion, and touchdown rate is far from intimidating.

You’re grasping for straws to a degree (one game with 12 expected PPR points over his past seven, and only one of his 341 routes has netted an end-zone target). But desperate PPR managers have a path to a handful of catches in an offense that has a higher implied total this week than normal, given the opponent and favorable forecast.

DeVonta Smith, WR | PHI (vs. PIT)

DeVonta Smith scored in his return to action, his fifth touchdown of the season. The scoring has been encouraging, but his air yards per game are down 24% from a season ago, and in this run-oriented offense, the lowering of his per-target upside isn’t ideal.

I’m going to like Smith more in games that are projected to be tight than potential blowouts (Week 17 vs. Cowboys) because of what it means for the game script. I have him ranked in the same tier as Marvin Harrison Jr. and Darnell Mooney for Week 15.

Diontae Johnson, WR | BAL (at NYG)

Diontae Johnson has been suspended for this week, with the team citing “conduct detrimental to the team” as the reason why.

On the bright side, his conduct hasn’t been detrimental to fantasy teams, as he’s been invisible since the trade. I can’t imagine that you realistically needed an excuse to part ways with the troubled receiver, but now you have it.

DJ Moore, WR | CHI (at MIN)

DJ Moore has four straight games with at least seven targets, and while that’s a positive, the production patterns are nearly as optimistic.

In this up-and-down Caleb Williams offense, Moore has produced under expectations in seven of his past nine games. I blame the underwhelming nature of his stat lines on a role that carries very little upside (his aDOT has been 5.0 yards or lower in four of his past five). If Williams is going to be sporadic, I want the reward to be great when he connects, and that isn’t really going to be the case given this target trajectory.

That said, you can justify Flexing Moore because we saw him catch all seven of his targets for 106 yards and a score in this exact matchup back in Week 12. Personally, I’d rather roll the dice on getting “the good” Jameis Winston to support Jerry Jeudy or a viable version of Mac Jones to get Brian Thomas Jr. to the finish line over Moore this week.

DK Metcalf, WR | SEA (vs. GB)

This Seattle offense can sustain two receivers, and with Tyler Lockett trending out of favor, DK Metcalf isn’t at serious risk of falling out of your lineup.

That said, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is now my default WR1 for the Seahawks, and I think his skill set is much safer than Metcalf’s in this specific matchup on Sunday night. The Packers own the highest deep interception rate through 14 weeks, a strength that could (should) have Geno Smith favoring the quick hitters as opposed to the chunk plays.

Metcalf hasn’t cleared 60 receiving yards since October, introducing a level of risk that most don’t assume when evaluating this beast. He’s a fringe top-20 player at the position for me, checking just behind Calvin Ridley and Jauan Jennings.

Dontayvion Wicks, WR | GB (at SEA)

The idea behind Dontayvion Wicks is the single-target upside. Be it in the end zone or deep down the field.

Neither is currently coming his way, and that means you look elsewhere for help.

It’s been more than a month since Wicks’ last end-zone target, and Week 7 was the last time he reached 55 air yards in a game. If you want to stash Wicks as a way to have a piece on the field for an above-average offense on your bench (80% of the snaps or better in two straight games), you have my good wishes, but it’s tough to justify considering him as a legitimate Flex option in any situation.

Drake London, WR | ATL (at LV)

Drake London has seen 46 targets over his past four games, and while all of that volume hasn’t paid off in a single touchdown due to the struggles of Kirk Cousins, he’s been a usable asset for three of those four games, a nice showing all things considered.

Ja’Marr Chase is the only player in the NFL with more end-zone targets this season than London, a role that will pay off with time. The Raiders are a bottom-10 defense in end-zone completion percentage and bottom-five in end-zone completions per game — the volume appears safe and the scoring equity is higher than you might assume, even with a struggling signal caller.

Elijah Moore, WR | CLE (vs. KC)

Elijah Moore earned just four targets last week, and his inconsistencies in that department are what keep him on the low end of the Flex rankings at best. Despite all of the aforementioned volume in this offense, Moore’s target count has been consistently inconsistent, and that’s not going to pay the bills in a Jameis Winston offense that comes with built-in volatility as it is.

• Week 11 at New Orleans Saints: six catches on eight targets
• Week 12 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: three catches on five targets
• Week 13 at Denver Broncos: eight catches on 14 targets
• Week 14 at Pittsburgh Steelers: three catches on four targets

I’m willing to admit that the Steelers might just defend his specific role well. They are an elite defense that takes away layup targets, thus putting Moore in a tough spot. The Chiefs allow the fourth-most yards per slot pass this season, a flaw that gives me cautious optimism that the recent streak of high-volume odd-numbered weeks can continue.

Moore isn’t a must-play, but I do have him ranked ahead of other primary slot options like DeMario Douglas and Wan’Dale Robinson this week.

Garrett Wilson, WR | NYJ (at JAX)

Vibes weren’t great for Garrett Wilson’s managers heading into Week 14. They were invested in a struggling Jets offense that had shown few signs of life in this lost season. In Weeks 10-13, Wilson had a total of 100 yards on 24 targets, production that is more symbolic of a waiver wire option rather than a high-pedigree receiver playing with a future Hall of Fame QB.

Everything changed in Week 14 against the Dolphins. Wilson was responsible for three of Aaron Rodgers’ first seven completions and 55 of his first 98 passing yards. He was featured from the jump and even had a 35-yard catch to pick up a fourth down in the second quarter.

Where has this been all season?

The 7-114-0 stat line was a sight for sore eyes, and it could have been much better if Rodgers wasn’t a touch off target on a deep pass in the third quarter. Wilson was able to adjust and make it a 42-yard gain, but if hit in stride, we are talking about a 68-yard touchdown.

Jets WRs aDOT, Weeks 7-14:

• Garrett Wilson: 10.8
• Davante Adams: 8.5

The Jaguars are the most vulnerable deep-ball defense in the league, allowing 16.4 yards per pass with one of every nine attempts resulting in a touchdown. Wilson could be the top-producing Jet receiver in this specific matchup, a player take that could lead to you building a profitable DFS lineup.

In season-long formats, last week was encouraging enough to play both of Rodgers’ top receivers.

George Pickens, WR | PIT (at PHI)

George Pickens missed the first game of his career last week. A hamstring injury resulted in a Friday status downgrade before he was officially ruled inactive pre-game. He will miss another game in Week 15.

Regarding his rest-of-season outlook, the upside is no secret (six finishes as a WR2 or better). But we can’t let that distract you from three finishes outside of the top 55 receivers, a floor that is at an increased risk of impacting future weeks if a compromised version of him is trying to play.

Generally speaking, I love the way this Russell Wilson-led offense looks for Pickens. With the veteran calling the shots, Pittsburgh’s WR1 has produced 17.2% over expectations and has eight end-zone targets in six games.

Stay close to the Pittsburgh beats — a proper read on this situation with Pickens in the coming weeks could very well be the difference in your playoff matchups.

Jakobi Meyers, WR | LV (vs. ATL)

This Raiders offense has been about as concentrated as any in the NFL. That doesn’t lock in production, but it gives the featured options a chance, and Jakobi Meyers is a prime example of that.

Meyers has six top-30 PPR finishes this season, an impressive accomplishment all things considered. With Aidan O’Connell under center this season, Meyers has posted a 29.4% on-field target (2.6 yards per route). That’s a role I can justify playing against a Falcons defense that creates pressure at the second lowest rate, thus allowing Vegas’ WR1 time to create separation.

His upside is limited as it is in an offense that rarely frequents the red zone, and any change under center only increases the risk. If O’Connell guts this out, Meyers is a low-end Flex, but if not, I’d rather take a wait-and-see approach for an offense that could be one of the three worst in the league.

Jalen Coker, WR | CAR (vs. DAL)

Jalen Coker has missed three straight games with a quad injury. While there is some cautious optimism for this week after he practiced in a limited capacity last week, it shouldn’t impact your lineup in the slightest.

Adam Thielen has assumed control of the slot role in this limited offense, thus making Coker’s impact more likely to limit his veteran teammate’s sustainability than offer anything individually.

Jalen McMillan, WR | TB (at LAC)

Jalen McMillan was one of the breakout stories of Week 14, scoring a pair of touchdowns in the 28-13 win over the Raiders. The 21.9 PPR fantasy points were great to see, but with just 11.7 expected points to show for that role, I worry about the sustainability.

Through 13 weeks, the rookie was producing 26.7% below expectations, further increasing my concerns that last week was anything other than a flash in the pan. If you trust 2+ months of data over a strong four quarters, you’d have expected McMillan to score 8.6 points last week; if that was the case, would we be having this discussion?

He has a 50% catch rate for the season — with just 119 air yards over his past three games, there’s not enough upside in this profile for me to Flex him.

Jalen Tolbert, WR | DAL (at CAR)

The WR2 role in Dallas is begging for someone to assume control of it, and it would seem that Jalen Tolbert is trending out of consideration.

The third-year receiver was on the field for a season-low 64.4% of snaps on Monday night, and while I think there’s a discussion to be had about whether Brandin Cooks is the answer, there’s value to be had in knowing who is not the answer; that is the situation we seem to be in with Tolbert.

You can cut ties without much fear of it coming back to haunt you.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR | CIN (at TEN)

I could “stat” you to death about Ja’Marr Chase’s Week 14, past month, or his 2024 season, but I’m already asking you to do a lot of reading, so let’s just relive Monday night together in 120 enjoyable seconds.

Every catch from Ja'Marr Chase's monster night on MNF:
🐅 14 catches
🐅 177 yards
🐅 2 TD pic.twitter.com/v0Wh55L6k4

— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2024

He’s the first Bengal with 75 receiving yards and a touchdown reception in four straight games since Chad Johnson did it in 2004, and the history-making doesn’t figure to slow given his connection with Joe Burrow.

Could he be fantasy football’s 1.01 for 2025?

Jameson Williams, WR | DET (vs. BUF)

For the first time in his short career, Jameson Williams has hauled in five passes in three straight games.

I’ve heard plenty of complaints over the past few weeks from those who roster JaMo, and I get it. You’d assume that a run like that would net more than 34.4 PPR points. That said, did you draft Williams for the talent with hope for volume or the other way around?

Exactly. Your bet from the jump was on raw talent and the hope that he could develop as a target earner in his third season. If I told you back in September that the looks wouldn’t be an issue entering the fantasy playoffs, you would have asked me where to sign.

All of that said, this is a tough spot. Whether it’s completion percentage, TD rate, or passer rating, Buffalo is one of the best units in the NFL at taking away the deep ball. And while there has been development, that is still Williams’ calling card in our game.

Both the Bears and 49ers rank in the bottom third in yards per deep completion, so I think there will be an opportunity to unleash Williams’ upside in your hopeful run to glory. Still, I think patience is the play this week.

Jauan Jennings, WR| SF (vs. LAR)

Jauan Jennings scored on San Francisco’s first drive last week and has looked like one of the 10 most uncoverable receivers for reasonable amounts of time this season.

• Ja’Marr Chase
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Jauan Jennings

Those are the three receivers this season (of the 34 with at least 75 targets) who have spent at least 30% of their time in the slot and average 2.1 PPR points per target. If I told you back in September that one name would join Chase and St. Brown on that list, how many guesses would it have taken for you to land on Jennings?

50?

150?

His ability to win quick routes should prove profitable this week against the third-best blitzing team in the NFL (49% pressure rate when bringing an extra body), and that should have him locked into lineups across the board. We have enough evidence that Brock Purdy is capable of getting his playmakers the ball; with this running game in shambles, Jennings’ production floor is that of a star at the position.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | SEA (vs. GB)

At this point, it’s not a hot take to label Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the WR1 in Seattle. His success rate seems to be tied with the team’s success, and that’s always a good sign for business as it’s a good way to experience role expansion.

During the Seahawks’ four-game winning streak, all JSN has done is catch 25 of 27 targets for 443 yards and a pair of touchdowns. No big deal. The list of receivers to post four straight games with an 85% catch rate and 70 receiving yards since 2009 isn’t long:

• Amon-Ra St. Brown (Weeks 10-13, 2022)
• Smith-Njigba (current)

Could that be the trajectory of this former Buckeye? I’m not saying no.

Jayden Reed, WR | GB (at SEA)

Alright, friends. I assembled some of the brightest minds over the past week. We are talking about a room that includes a doctorate degree, multiple masters, a high school administrative leader, the person I most model my behavior after, and … me.

The latter aside, that’s an impressive amount of brain power within the same four walls. You can choose to believe that these résumés came together for the sole purpose of cracking the mystery that is Jayden Reed or that it was a casual happy hour with my immediate family, but I’m simply sharing facts.

Coming out of that room, after a Friday night of loud discussions, we came to a line of thought. There’s no way to know if it is bulletproof or not; predicting the future is tough, but a trend was unearthed, and considering that I’ve struggled to get Green Bay’s WR1 right all season long, I’m riding it for this week.

This season, Reed is averaging 8.7 expected PPR points per game. We are less concerned about the mean outcomes, instead wanting to know when the tail outcomes are coming. Reed has had nine games this season in which he’s been at least three points over or three points under that average number.

Here is where those teams rank, for the season, in yards per deep completion.

Opponents against whom Reed had 11.7+ expected PPR points, 2024:

• Dolphins: 5th in yards allowed per deep completion
• Vikings: 7th
• Titans: 9th
• Cardinals: 14th

Opponents against whom Reed had 5.7 or fewer expected PPR points, 2024:

• Lions: 16th in yards allowed per deep completion
• Bears: 22nd
• 49ers: 25th
• Jaguars: 30th
• Colts: 31st

Listen, I’m not saying I love it, but it’s the lone thread that connected the desired games that this room of well-hydrated individuals could come up with. Through 14 weeks, the Seahawks rank 10th in this stat, limiting the production of Jared Goff and Brock Purdy in road games, an impressive feat, to say the least.

Seattle is a bottom-10 blitz rate team, and before the Lions attacked with reckless abandon on Thursday night — certainly something that was impacted by the game script and a second meeting this season — the Packers were one of the defenses blitzed least often (Weeks 8-13, 28th in opponent blitz rate). If we are trying to play 4D chess, less defensive aggression makes pressure on Jordan Love less likely, and that’s when we want to gamble on Reed.

• Reed’s on-field target share, Love is pressured: 13%
• Reed’s on-field target share, Love not pressured: 23.1%

I’m sorry that you had to spend that time inside of my head. I’m back in on Reed for a bounce-back Week 15 with the hope being that this matchup, along with the motivation to get him at least remotely involved, is a priority off of the min-bye after the disappointing no-show against Detroit.

Fingers crossed.

Jaylen Waddle, WR | MIA (at HOU)

The 20.9 PPR points from Jaylen Waddle were encouraging, but the result is not what has my attention. He posted 20.3 expected fantasy points on the back of strong volume (12 targets after averaging five targets per game over his previous six contests) and the elite execution of timing routes was promising (nine catches on 10 targets that came less than 15 yards downfield).

This — this is the Waddle we drafted with confidence over the summer, and those who held onto this stock appear positioned to benefit greatly at the perfect time.

I prefer Tyreek Hill this week by a decent amount (I had them ranked within seven spots last week) because I think he has more of a ceiling upside in a matchup against the best defense in terms of sub-15-air-yard completion percentage, but considering that only the Falcons allow touchdown passes at a higher rate than the Texans this season, there’s enough food for both of these stars to eat.

Jerry Jeudy, WR | CLE (vs. KC)

We got the Jameis Winston experience, both the good and the bad, all within one game last week. Jerry Jeudy cashed in a 35-yard touchdown on Cleveland’s second drive and it was easy to get excited about a second straight ceiling week from his WR1.

Not so much.

That single catch accounted for more than half of Jeudy’s Week 14 production, the result of Winston being awfully ordinary after the hot start. It’s a roller coaster ride from quarter to quarter, let alone week over week, and that means you’re never going to be in a comfortable spot. The one thing you can count on from the Browns these days is extreme volume; as long as that continues, the math suggests that starting Jeudy is the play.

Could this be a floor week? Of course. Any week can be, but a Chiefs defense that ranks better than the league average in both yards per pass and touchdown rate brings such an outcome more into focus. I’ve got Jeudy pegged as a high-end Flex play this weekend — with bye weeks behind us, I’m looking for more matchup upside when constructing my DFS lineups.

Jordan Addison, WR | MIN (vs. CHI)

There are three players in the league with multiple 8-130-1 receiving games this season — two of the names you’d expect and the other is the header to this section of this novel.

• Ja’Marr Chase (three)
• Nico Collins (two)
• Jordan Addison (two)

There is certainly a defensive component to that (four of those seven games have come against the Ravens or Bears), but there is also a specific type of receiver that is capable of rattling off games like this.

All of those WRs have a career yards-per-catch average of at least 14 yards with over 7.5% of their career receptions resulting in touchdowns. I’m not the least bit optimistic that Addison’s stock flirts with those other two names long-term, but explosion spots like what we saw last week are going to happen (8-133-3).

Addison was a star the last time these teams met (8-162-1), and with the Bears allowing the fourth-most yards per pass this season, that tracks. In that game, Justin Jefferson was held to just two grabs for 27 yards as Chicago devoted all of their resources to slowing him down.

If you’re optimistic that they employ that strategy again, by all means, fire up Addison with confidence. You do need to be aware of the risks that come with this profile — he’s been held under 45 receiving yards five times in 11 games this season.

He’s pushing for top-30 status for me this week, lower than you might assume coming off of the monstrous Week 14.

Josh Downs, WR | IND (at DEN)

Josh Downs continues to battle a shoulder injury, and his status seems to be on the pessimistic side of questionable as we sit here today. I don’t think he’d be subject to a Patrick Surtain II shadow should he suit up, and that projection has him sitting as a fine PPR Flex play in my preliminary “if-active” rankings.

Top PPR WRs, Weeks 8-11:

• Ja’Marr Chase: 113.6 PPR points
• Amon-Ra St. Brown: 84.0
• CeeDee Lamb: 82.8
• Cooper Kupp: 81.1
• Courtland Sutton: 74.2
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 71.7
• Calvin Ridley: 70.1
• Downs: 67.8

My hunch is that your default ranking of Downs isn’t nearly high enough. His health and his quarterback introduce plenty of risks, but the versatile skill set is plenty to land him in your PPR lineup with confidence should he clear all physical hurdles entering the weekend.

Joshua Palmer, WR | LAC (vs. TB)

This time of year, I get a lot of “I need upside, don’t care about downside … who can I plug-and-play” sort of questions. I get it and I love it. The ability to be real with your expectations of your team is critical when it comes to succeeding at a high level in this game of ours.

I also love these questions because you’re taking all of the faults of a downside out of my hands and allowing me to only look like the hero. By framing the question like that, you’re expecting disaster and looking for me to swoop in.

The answer this week is going to be Joshua Palmer.

He’s been on the field for over 74% of Los Angeles’ offensive snaps in three of his past four games, and his vertical role opens up the door to a WR2 finish. This season, Tampa Bay has a below-average defense when defending deep passes in terms of passer rating, touchdown rate, and interception percentage.

Air yards leaders, Week 14:

• Amari Cooper: 247 yards
• DeAndre Hopkins: 180 yards
• Jordan Addison: 168 yards
• Ja’Marr Chase: 151 yards
• Malik Nabers: 140 yards
• Tyreek Hill: 139 yards
• Palmer: 134 yards

My guess is that you didn’t wake up today and expect to see Palmer’s name on a list like that. There is an obvious risk that comes with this profile (one touchdown catch over the past 365 days), but if you’re throwing caution to the wind, Palmer’s Week 14 best-case scenario ranks among the top 25 at the position.

Let’s see if we can get you a win as a significant underdog!

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR | KC (at CLE)

JuJu Smith-Schuster has been hovering around a 50% snap share for three weeks now, and his role has been bouncing all over the place.

• Week 12 at Panthers: 70.3% slot rate
• Week 13 vs. Raiders: 21.1% slot rate
• Week 14 vs. Chargers: 48.5% slot rate

My hope, and reason for stashing him where I can, is that this team locks him into the slot and asks him to win on the quick routes. If you want to forecast that happening before we have concrete evidence, you could be ahead of the field in a very profitable manner with the Browns allowing a league-high 10.0 yards per slot pass attempt this season.

I tend toward following median projections for my rankings and with uncertainty around Smith-Schuster’s precise role, that lands him outside of my top 50 at the position. That said, if you told me that there was a surprise player this week to catch 7-10 passes and be a key piece in DFS formats on the cheap, he’d be my pick against the top pressure-applying defense in the league.

Justin Jefferson, WR | MIN (vs. CHI)

The national nightmare ended last week when Justin Jefferson scored for the first time since Week 7, hauling in a 12-yard end-zone target from Sam Darnold.

He added a 52-yard touchdown catch later in the game on a busted coverage situation, and we’ve seen scores come in bunches for the game’s finest receiver (he opened this season with a TD in four straight games and scored in six of eight games during a post-Halloween spurt in 2022).

The Bears took the Vikings to overtime in Week 12 by selling out to keep Jefferson in check (15.6% target share). I have no doubt that they will try to repeat that game plan; I also have little hesitation that Kevin O’Connell schemes up ways to combat that desire.

Whether you want to rank Jefferson as the WR2 or WR8 this week, you’re playing him with the utmost confidence and hoping he can provide you with a Monday night hammer.

Keenan Allen, WR | CHI (at MIN)

Keenan Allen has one game this season with 20+ expected PPR points, and it was Week 12’s meeting with these Vikings (26.7 expected points and 23.6 produced points). He’s been unable to capitalize on the form he showed in that game in the two contests since (103 yards on 76 routes), and that makes him a long shot to repeat his past success.

In that first performance, Allen’s veteran savvy helped him earn a 37.5% on-field third down target share — Caleb Williams was locked onto him when it mattered most. I find it hard to think that the exotic stylings of the Minnesota defense don’t adjust to getting burned by Allen less than a month ago; with Rome Odunze producing in garbage time last week, it appears that Williams is comfortable taking whatever the defense gives him.

Chicago enters this game with an implied point total of under 20, leaving me with little faith that we see multiple pass catchers from this offense produce viable numbers. How lucky do you feel?

It has to be luckier than I — Allen is my WR39 this week, ranking in the Elijah Moore and Adam Thielen tier at the position.

Kendrick Bourne, WR | NE (at ARI)

Kendrick Bourne saw his snap share increase in consecutive games before the Week 14 bye, and his recent efficiency has been noteworthy (11 catches on 13 targets). The early returns in his connection with Drake Maye are encouraging, and I think we could be looking at a sneaky late-round pick this summer (assuming he remains with the team) as a veteran option on a developing offense — but for this winter, you should be looking elsewhere.

Bourne has never been a volume target earner, something that makes his single-digit aDOT and 8% red-zone target rate damning metrics when it comes to his path to returning any sort of value for the remainder of this season.

Keon Coleman, WR | BUF (at DET)

Keon Coleman has now missed four straight games with a wrist injury, and his status for Week 15 remains up in the air, though there has been more early optimism this week than in the past few.

I’m not sure it matters.

He’s earned a target on just 16.4% of his routes this season, and that doesn’t include many reps with Amari Cooper. This time last week, I was bullish on the idea of stashing Coleman with the thought being that the Bills would move heaven and earth to pass the Chiefs for the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

After a loss to the Rams last week on top of another heart-stopping Chiefs win, those dreams are all but dashed, and now I think a cautious approach is more likely than not.

I don’t see a realistic path to Coleman working his way into the top 35 of my receiver rankings at any point over the final month of the season. With that being the case, I believe you can move on should you need immediate help — Coleman, at best, is a long-term play with limited role upside.

Khalil Shakir, WR | BUF (at DET)

I like to think that if I was athletically gifted, Khalil Shakir would be my spirit animal. Remove that pesky ability to excel physically, and we are basically identical.

• Listed at 6’ tall
• K.S. initials
• Aquarius Zodiac Sign
• Significant time spent in Upstate NY

See what I mean?

I’ve been ultra proud of my clone lately. Only Malik Nabers (11) has a longer active streak of 7+ target games than Shakir (seven), and with a red-zone touch in five of his past seven games, he’s benefiting from the overall consistency of Buffalo’s offense.

We saw a little bit of everything from Shakir last week in the loss to the Rams. The 51-yard catch, run, and shrug-off-tackles touchdown was impressive and on brand. I was even more encouraged by a 31-yard bomb that nearly got him a second score.

If Shakir’s route tree is expanding, get used to seeing this name ranked as a top-20 PPR receiver. This profile isn’t super exciting in terms of highlight plays, but I find winning fantasy matchups exciting, and my guy K.S. helps you do that consistently.

Ladd McConkey, WR | LAC (vs. TB)

Ladd McConkey finally sat out last week. The rookie has been battling through a shoulder injury for a month now, and a knee injury late in Week 13 is ultimately what resulted in last week’s DNP.

McConkey was a true game-time decision, which has me putting him on the positive side of questionable as we turn the page to Week 14. The Bolts have lost two of three games after their 7-3 start, but their standing as a Wild Card team isn’t in much danger, so you’ll need to monitor this situation.

There is the possibility that LA rests its clear-cut top offensive playmaker. But if McConkey plays, you play him. He’s proven the ability to win routes in a hurry, and that is the type of skill set that can beat a Bucs defense that creates pressure at the fourth-highest rate when blitzing.

Case in point: Tampa Bay allows the second-most yards per slot target. McConkey is a must-start option at this point in the season and could be the top fantasy WR from the 2024 draft class in 2025 redrafts.

Malik Nabers, WR | NYG (vs. BAL)

Try to remember all the way back to Week 3. The high-flying Saints were taking the league by storm, Justin Fields was under center for the Steelers, and J.K. Dobbins was pacing for north of 1,700 rushing yards.

Yeah, it was a while ago.

That was the last time Malik Nabers offered production above expectation. The rookie leads the league in games with double-digit targets (eight), but those have been empty calories more often than not.

If there is a defense that can play a volume receiver into value, you’d think it would be the Ravens. I don’t have a problem with that logic, but it’s worth noting that 10 of 11 WRs who scored 15 PPR points against this vulnerable defense benefited from, at the very least, aggressive QB play (Davante Adams in Week 2 being the lone exception).

Nabers obviously doesn’t get that benefit of the doubt, but we can essentially pencil in 10+ targets, which should allow him to fall into WR2 production.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR | NO (vs. WAS)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling is essentially a full-time player for the banged-up Saints. However, with Derek Carr sidelined, I can’t imagine going in this direction with any level of confidence.

The recent production spike has been profitable, but MVS’ season on-field target share (14.5%) is in line with the expectations he’s laid out for his career (14.4%). And with the quality of targets set to decline in a major way, there’s no reason to elevate this profile simply based on a matchup with the worst deep-ball defense in the NFL (13.3% touchdown rate).

I’m not ending my fantasy season because I started a low-target option that is playing with a below-average backup quarterback.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR | ARI (vs. NE)

Rashod Bateman and Diontae Johnson.

Those are two receivers that I’m guessing you’ve spent very little brain power on this season. They both have three finishes inside the top 20 PPR receivers this season, the same number as Marvin Harrison Jr.

The high-pedigree rookie has been disappointing by any measure, and I wish I could tell you that things will trend in a positive direction, but I can’t.

Harrison’s slot rate has declined in three straight games as the layup targets continue to go to Trey McBride, while the first-year receiver is assuming a role that is nearly exclusively made up of highly difficult targets.

On the bright side, Harrison has seen multiple end-zone targets in consecutive games and 12 this season. With 45 catches on 86 targets this season, the hopes of efficiency are gone. So as long as you acknowledge that the upside you’re chasing here hinges on touchdowns, I’m okay with you continuing to bet on Harrison, even if the risk is far greater than we want.

I’m hopeful that New England being ranked 29th in pressure rate (29.8% of opponent dropbacks) allows us to see flashes of a downfield connection between Kyler Murray and Harrison — he’s my WR30 for Week 15.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR | IND (at DEN)

My ranking of Michael Pittman Jr. relies on Josh Downs’ status to a large degree. I view Downs (shoulder) as the top receiver in Indy’s offense, but with Shane Steichen very noncommittal to his status for this weekend, I’m penciling in Pittman as a PPR Flex play.

On the positive side of things, I think there’s an avenue for Pittman to win as a big slot option. The Broncos rank second in both pressure rate (39% of dropbacks) and blitz percentage (36%), a defensive profile that can encourage quick-hitting routes.

Now, Anthony Richardson taking those looks is a different worry entirely, but the idea of a receiver like Pittman, sans Downs, is something that has my attention.

Should Downs suit up, I’ll move Pittman to my bench as his profile is too thin to split his role in half. For the season, he has one top-20 finish and hasn’t seen a target with his feet in the paint since Week 6.

This Colts offense carries some weekly upside, but don’t confuse “upside” with “stability.” Jonathan Taylor is the only skill player in Indianapolis’ offense that you’re starting with confidence weekly.

Michael Wilson, WR | ARI (vs. NE)

Michael Wilson scored from 41 yards out on Arizona’s first drive last week. He now has a deep reception in three straight games, a run coming on the heels of a four-game stretch that saw him earn a total of one downfield look.

The big play was nice to see and will fuel some of my continued support of Wilson as a long-term asset. Still, I can’t rank him as a Flex-worthy play as we come down the stretch.

The second-year receiver has cleared 6.5 expected PPR points in just one of his past five games, and until we see him earn targets at an average rate, going in this direction comes with more risk than reward.

If we get word that Christian Gonzalez is going to be a full-time Marvin Harrison shadow, the upside case increases here, though I think we’re still looking at more of a DFS play than anything for the final month of this season.

Mike Evans, WR | TB (at LAC)

Mike Evans has four top-10 finishes this season (three of which came in the first five weeks). Those games are fun when they land, but with those being his only top-25’s of the season, this isn’t the résumé of an elite fantasy asset.

In this era without Chris Godwin, I would have never guessed that a 17.9% target share in a positive matchup was possible for Evans, though that is what we got against the Raiders on Sunday. The touchdown equity remains intact with his highest red-zone target rate since 2019. That is why you can continue to play Evans with confidence, even if the range of outcomes on a weekly basis is far greater than what you expected on draft day.

Evans needs to average 102.5 receiving yards the rest of the way to extend his record 1,000-yard streak, and we’ve seen this team go out of their way to get him to that number — you’re playing him. While this matchup appears stiff on paper, we are talking about the second-most vulnerable downfield defense in terms of touchdown rate.

Mike Williams, WR | PIT (at PHI)

Did you make a mad dash to your DFS lineups last week when news came out that George Pickens was ruled out ahead of Pittsburgh’s game with Cleveland?

Personally, I opted to bet unders on Russell Wilson’s longest completion, a path I will likely double down on again this year if the star receiver remains sidelined — something Mike Tomlin seems to be projecting at the moment. Whether you made a pivot or not, the general idea of lumping usage onto Mike Williams made sense. He’s a big-bodied receiver who is as capable of making plays down the field as anyone not named Pickens on this roster.

It didn’t work.

Williams was the target of a deep pass on Wilson’s second throw of the game and later made an impressive one-handed grab on the sideline, but that was about it. His target rates were strong, and that’s good to see. But until this team shows us comfort rolling out the former first-round pick on a consistent basis, there’s just no real path to starting him in any capacity.

Williams’ weekly snap shares with Pittsburgh:

• Week 11 vs. Baltimore Ravens: 31.1%
• Week 12 at Cleveland Browns: 28.4%
• Week 13 at Cincinnati Bengals: 24.2%
• Week 14 vs. Cleveland Browns: 27.4%

Might the Steelers be waiting to unleash a Williams-centric package for the playoffs? I guess that’s possible, but that doesn’t help us now. We figure to have more time to react this week than last, as I’m currently counting Pickens out and pivoting if news changes as opposed to the other way around. However, without any certainty that Williams can be on the field for even one-third of the snaps, this is an ultra-thin profile at best.

I like the idea of him in this offense, but at this point, I think it’s safe to say that redraft fantasy managers can stop holding onto hope. Even if Williams sees his role expand this week on your bench, we won’t have any way of knowing that it’ll sustain when Pickens returns. The Eagles own the seventh-highest pressure rate this season, a strength that has me thinking that Williams may not have time to shake free down the field even if his snap share were to explode out of nowhere.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR | TEN (vs. CIN)

It’s almost like relying on touchdowns in a below-average offense is a risky maneuver. Go figure.

On Sunday against the Jags, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine earned just a pair of targets on his 31 routes. He’s just not a fantasy asset without chunk plays, and as long as he relies on Will Levis for those opportunities, this is an uphill battle.

An uphill battle, on ice, while trying to juggle flaming bowling pins.

On a unicycle.

For the season, Westbrook-Ikhine is averaging 2.4 PPR points per game not scored on touchdowns. Hard pass.

Nico Collins, WR | HOU (vs. MIA)

Puka Nacua is great, right? We can’t agree on much, but that feels like a pretty universal take at this point.

• Nacua’s last month: 30.7% production over PPR expectation
• Nico Collins since the start of 2023: 31.1% production over PPR expectation

What Nacua has done for a month, Collins has been doing for two years with a quarterback whose best football is ahead of him. Despite missing five games, he leads the Texans in targets, catches, receiving touchdowns, and receiving yards … by 289 yards.

Why do I mention that? Collins is basically Houston’s first and second option in the passing game, and we’ve seen a pair of receivers combine for 30+ PPR points against the Dolphins with some regularity this season:

• DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, Week 3: 30.0 PPR points
• Marvin Harrison and Michael Wilson, Week 8: 37.2 PPR points
• Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, Week 10: 33.8 PPR points
• Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson, Week 14: 44.3 PPR points

Am I suggesting that Collins scores 30 points on Sunday? Of course not, that would be irresponsible. Is he a staple in my DFS lineups coming out of the bye?

You bet.

Noah Brown, WR | WAS (at NO)

Noah Brown is as capable as anyone not named Terry McLaurin on Washington’s roster of making plays downfield, which is why I’m keeping him stashed.

But rostering and starting are two very different things. The Saints allow the second-lowest deep-completion percentage and the fourth-lowest touchdown rate on those passes.

Brown’s 12.2-yard career aDOT (multiple deep targets in four of his past six games) opens the door for spike weeks in the right spots. I’m not losing track of him (Week 17 vs. Falcons, the seventh-worst yards-per-attempt-deep-pass defense), but I’m not giving him a second look in the scope of Week 15.

Parker Washington, WR | JAX (vs. NYJ)

Parker Washington lit up the Texans in Week 13 to the tune of 103 yards and a score on 12 targets, but he was an afterthought last weekend in Tennessee (two targets on 31 routes).

I’m not comfortable in assuming quality from this Jaguars passing game, and while Washington has shown capable of making plays on occasion, a 12.9% career on-field target share isn’t nearly enough to overcome Mac Jones’ struggles.

Puka Nacua, WR | LAR (at SF)

I look at these numbers for a living, and I have no idea what the most impressive part of Puka Nacua’s Week 14 domination of the Bills was.

• Fourth straight game with an on-field target share over 36%
• Career-high 6.0 yards per route
• 10 targets on 16 routes from the start of Q2 to the end of Q3

That’s just the tip of the iceberg, and I’d argue that Nacua’s five rush attempts (Weeks 1-13: four carries) are what has my interest most piqued. For me, the Rams made it clear on Sunday that they view Nacua as their alpha receiver. If their usage patterns continue to reflect that, Nacua could be a league winner, and Cooper Kupp managers are at risk of an early exit.

Nacua hasn’t struggled to earn targets in his two career games against the Niners (26 looks on 69 routes), and I have no issue in penciling in another double-digit opportunity day at the office.

Quentin Johnston, WR | LAC (vs. TB)

Quentin Johnston has scored seven times in his past 10 games. That’s great, but it’s dangerous to bank on.

Johnston is averaging 26.4 receiving yards over his past five games and has hauled in just 7 of 22 targets (31.8%) over his past 14 quarters. The inefficiencies are partly on him, partly on Justin Herbert, and partly on a 13.6-yard aDOT. Who gets the biggest piece of blame pie can be debated, but with none of them likely to change in the short term, it doesn’t matter for our purposes.

Ladd McConkey sat last week, and Johnston’s role didn’t expand in a significant way. He wasn’t trusted with the slot role at all, and his route diet was within the acceptable range of outcomes for a normal week.

The Buccaneers are a top-10 defense when it comes to slowing deep passes in both completion percentage and yards per attempt. There’s a time and place to roll the dice on Johnston, but this is neither.

Rashod Bateman, WR | BAL (at NYG)

Rashod Bateman has three top-20 finishes this season. While the range of outcomes is great, you could squint and get there for a player like this coming off a bye and facing a defense that allows the second-most yards per deep pass this season (16.3).

There is, of course, a ton of risk going in this direction. Bateman has caught more than three passes just once since mid-October, and while John Harbaugh is downplaying the knee injury he suffered before the bye week, it cost him time in Week 13 against the Eagles and has to at least be considered.

This season, Bateman is scoring once every 11 targets, a rate that far exceeds what he had put on film before in his career (once every 38 targets). You’re aware of the type of profile that Bateman holds — this matchup isn’t prohibitive, so assuming reasonable health, there’s a path to Flex value with Baltimore as a heavy favorite.

Rome Odunze, WR | CHI (at MIN)

What Rome Odunze did last week was inconsiderate.

The rookie scoring on two of his five targets was great, and if you were forced into playing him (the toe-tap TD being a work of art), congratulations. But this thoughtless act of production now has fantasy managers obligated to consider him as a viable option this week and moving forward.

The nerve.

One week of production is wonderful, but it’s far from predictive, especially in an offense led by an up-and-down rookie who has two proven NFL commodities to funnel targets to.

From Weeks 10-13, there were 62 receivers who saw at least 15 targets — Odunze ranked 60th in production relative to expectations (-41.9%). I’m not here to suggest that he regresses to that level, but with major efficiency and volume risk, there are too many moving pieces to justify playing Odunze this week.

Included in that brutal run of production was a 10-target, 39-yard showing against these Vikings. If we are going down the rankings, Rashod Bateman, Noah Brown, and Michael Wilson all grade out slightly better for me this week.

Romeo Doubs, WR | GB (at SEA)

Romeo Doubs has missed consecutive games and entered this work week still in concussion protocol. We know that not all head injuries are created equal, and this extended absence has me trending away from him until we get on-field evidence that he is at full strength.

Doubs has been far from reliable this season when healthy (two games with over 15 PPR points, also four games with under eight points) and can thus be ignored for the short term. If you want to roster Doubs as a cheap way to get exposure to Green Bay’s offense, fine, but you’re not starting him in any capacity this week — even should he clear all health hurdles.

Tank Dell, WR | HOU (vs. MIA)

Tank Dell has just two top-30 performances this season (Weeks 6 and 9), coming up well short of expectations after a strong rookie season. I mentioned the productive duos within the Nico Collins write-up, and if you think Miami will devote all of its resources toward him, Dell could snap out of his funk against a defense that is the last remaining unit in the league without a deep interception.

If you’re backing Dell, you’re doing it based on opinion more than anything we’ve seen on the field lately.

• Week 9 at New York Jets: six catches on nine targets
• Week 10 vs. Detroit Lions: five catches on nine targets
• Week 11 at Dallas Cowboys: four catches on seven targets
• Week 12 vs. Tennessee Titans: three catches on five targets
• Week 13 at Jacksonville Jaguars: one catch on four targets

Dell hasn’t earned a red-zone target in three straight games, and that has subtracted from the upside in his overall profile. Jameson Williams (vs. Bills) and Darnell Mooney (at Raiders) are receivers that fill a similar role in their respective offenses but have shown more recent life and, thus, rank higher for me this week.

Tee Higgins, WR | CIN (at TEN)

Was Tee Higgins out there on Monday Night Football?

I’m aware that he had two catches (23 yards) and Joe Burrow missed him on an end-zone target in single coverage that is a touchdown more often than not, but Higgins’ impact was minimal in what looked like a good spot against the Cowboys.

Sadly, we get these stinkers from Higgins on occasion. Week 14 was the fifth time since the beginning of last season in which the star receiver averaged under one yard per route run, a level of production that has kept him from ascending into the top 15 at the position on a regular basis.

I expect enough of a bounce-back to justify a starting rank, but I don’t think we’re getting two weeks’ worth of production in a four-quarter stretch. The Titans are vulnerable on the ground, and when opponents take to the air, it’s usually not too far downfield.

Normally, that would green-light me to start players next to a player like Ja’Marr Chase, who is capable of taking the top off of any defense. However, Higgins’ aDOT is actually 21.1% higher than that of his alpha teammate this season.

The Giants have a similar defensive profile as the Titans’, and Higgins turned seven targets into 77 yards against New York back in Week 6. I think that makes for a reasonable projection and is viable, even if not matchup-deciding.

Terry McLaurin, WR | WAS (at NO)

In theory, any member of an offense led by a rookie quarterback comes with a level of risk, but not all theories are bulletproof.

Terry McLaurin has been a WR2 or better in seven of his past eight games, a run of production that includes consecutive top-eight finishes at the position before having last week off. He’s already scored as many touchdowns this season as the previous two combined while improving both his yards per catch and reception rate.

At this point, the foundation McLaurin has set is so strong that he is nearing bust-proof status. OK, so that label isn’t really a thing, but his excellence across the board creates a steady floor with access to extreme upside. The Saints are the second-best pass defense when it comes to opponent red-zone completion percentage, so maybe a third straight game with a score doesn’t occur. But McLaurin has cleared 15 PPR points without the courtesy of a touchdown twice over his past six games.

Washington’s WR1 is a fantasy WR1 for me this week, the remainder of this season, and for the foreseeable future.

Tyler Lockett, WR | SEA (vs. GB)

Tyler Lockett was shut out against the Cardinals last week, earning just one target on his 27 routes in the disappointing effort.

Is “disappointing” the right word? The name “Tyler Lockett” carries with it some gravity, but it’s been a month since he cleared 20 receiving yards, two months since he hit 100 air yards, and over a year since his last game with 18 PPR points.

I was wrong on the Seahawks flaming out, but I wasn’t wrong in deeming Lockett’s days as a fantasy asset as over. This is a two-receiver team that concentrates its targets at a high level — Lockett is essentially what Mike Gesicki is for the Bengals but in an offense with less upside and less favorable positional eligibility.

Tyreek Hill, WR | MIA (at HOU)

Tyreek Hill has touched the ball in the red zone in five straight games, has cleared fantasy expectations by at least 10% in four of those contests, and has seen 23 targets in his past two games.

The Cheetah has scored in four of five games and seems to be operating at full strength, something the Dolphins need in the worst way as they cling to their postseason hopes. The Texans are coming off of their bye, but I’m not sure that if you gave this defense a month of time to prepare for a positive-trending Miami offense it would matter.

Slot usage with Tua Tagovailoa (2024)

• Tyreek Hill: 89 routes, 26 targets, and two TDs
• Jaylen Waddle: 92 routes, 15 targets, and zero TDs

Houston allows the fifth-most yards per slot pass attempt this season (8.6) and the fifth-lowest opponent average depth of target when viewing their pass defense as a whole. In four of five games during this 4-1 run for the Dolphins, Hill has posted a single-digit average depth of target — could this be the week-winning, DFS-slate-shifting Hill performance on the fast track?

I’m not going to give away all of the goods, but I have him and Nico Collins as a chalky DFS stack this week — I’ll round the edges of this lineup with value plays elsewhere.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR | NYG (vs. BAL)

Wan’Dale Robinson led the Giants with 11 targets on Sunday against a vulnerable Saints pass defense. Given his role and route diet, if you came into my life from the future and presented that sentence as fact ahead of lineup lock, I would have Flexed him in every league possible.

No dice — Robinson finished tied for the 68th-most receiving yards in Week 14.

The Ravens’ pass defense is a glaring weakness, and, on occasion, they are gashed in the slot. Five times this season has Baltimore allowed a triple-digit passer rating on passes thrown to that area with three instances sticking out.

Slot machines vs. BAL:

• Cowboys (Week 3): 8-of-14 for 121 yards and two touchdowns
• Bengals (Week 5): 9-of-10 for 164 yards and three touchdowns
• Browns (Week 8): 11-of-15 for 120 yards and a touchdown

By no means am I suggesting that this Giants offense can produce anything to that level of production, but would 6-8 catches in a blowout loss surprise you in the least for Robinson?

I have him as a very low-end PPR Flex under that general assumption, though I’ll admit that my exposure is far more likely to come as a punt play in a DFS setting more than an annual league.

Xavier Legette, WR | CAR (vs. DAL)

The Panthers nearly pulled off the improbable upset in Philadelphia last week, and if Xavier Legette hauls in a deep pass late, they probably do.

If all near misses counted, we’d have a very different-looking season, both for fantasy and real life. In that alternate reality, maybe the Chiefs are 7-6.

But that’s not the world in which we live, and the fact of the matter is that Legette failed to make the most of his targets last week, something that has been the norm during his rookie season.

Performing for a spotty offense requires extreme efficiency to overcome a lack of scoring equity, and we’re not there right now. Legette has produced 35% under PPR expectations over his past three games, a run that coincides with an 80% catch rate for Adam Thielen.

Legette might well be the future of the position in Carolina and an asset for years to come if Bryce Young develops into a league-average signal-caller. Yet, when evaluating his value for the remainder of this season, there’s not enough here to roster, let alone start.

Xavier Worthy, WR | KC (at CLE)

Xavier Worthy was on the field for a season-high 83.1% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps last week against the Chargers, continuing his slow role growth that might pay off at the perfect time for loyal and/or desperate fantasy managers.

The rookie has at least four receptions in four straight games, and if the ball is in his hands, risk-taking managers will gladly let the chips fall where they may.

The Browns own the ninth-lowest deep-completion percentage. That’s a buzzkill, but when opponents connect the dots on those long throws, they do significant damage (seventh-most yards per deep completion against).

Worthy has earned just one end-zone target over his past eight games, and that keeps the range of outcomes wide. If I’m in a tight matchup or the first of a two-week matchup, I’m looking elsewhere. But if you’re chasing the upside, this is a fine flier to take.

Zay Flowers, WR | BAL (at NYG)

Zay Flowers hasn’t been a top-30 receiver since Week 9 despite consistent volume (6+ targets in six straight games). Is he not as good as we thought? Is he simply running cold?

Efficiency is at the core of Flowers’ struggles. Last season, he caught 71.3% of his targets but just 63.8% this season.

In a run-centric offense with a lower aDOT role, that dip is impacting Flowers’ fantasy stock more than it would most (15% or more under expectations in three of his past four games). It’s been a frustrating year to roster Baltimore’s WR1, but I’m willing to give him this week to iron things out.

Not only should Flowers get a design bump coming out of the bye, but he also faces a Giants defense that does very little to discourage opponents from throwing to the slot. This season, New York owns the eighth-highest opponent slot passer rating and is one of three defenses yet to intercept a pass thrown to that area of the field.

I’m not writing off Flowers for average numbers against the Steelers, Chargers, and Eagles. I’m not sure the struggling receiver will be a popular pick in the DFS streets, and if there is significant leverage to be had on that front, you best believe I’ll be taking advantage.

Week 15 Fantasy Football Tight Ends

Brenton Strange, TE | JAX (vs. NYJ)

Brenton Strange may not be the name you thought you’d be counting on this time of year, but that doesn’t make it wrong. The 23-year-old has cleared 9.0 PPR points in all three games this season when he’s run 20+ routes, a near certainty this week and moving forward with Evan Engram (labrum) done for the season.

The Jets matchup isn’t ideal, but they are one of two defenses yet to intercept a short pass and rank 21st in red zone defense. It’s unlikely to be a high-volume day, but 4-6 targets are possible, and if the game script works in his favor, a scoring chance gives him a top-15 appeal free of cost on your waiver wire.

Brock Bowers, TE | LV (vs. ATL)

It has seemed inevitable for a while, and now it’s official — Brock Bowers is your rookie TE record holder for receptions. He didn’t give you the stat line you’re used to in Week 14 (3-49-0), but there’s nothing to do here besides start the elite talent and consider yourself lucky to do so.

This Aidan O’Connell injury is one to watch (27% on-field target share for Bowers with him under center), but not to the level where you’re starting a lesser player on Sunday over Bowers with an unknown QB on Monday night.

This offense is always going to carry risk, but a weather-proof game, on extended rest, against a defense that just coughed up 347 yards and five scores to Sam Darnold on 28 attempts — you’re not getting cute with your season on the line.

Cade Otton, TE | TB (at LAC)

I’m going to keep saying it: Cade Otton isn’t a reliable fantasy option when Mike Evans is on the field. It’s really that simple.

With Mike Evans on the field, 2024:

• 14.7% on-field target share
• 21.6% red-zone target rate
• 4.3 aDOT

Without Mike Evans on the field, 2024:

• 21.1% on-field target share
• 30% red-zone target rate
• 6.9 aDOT

Otton had a chunk play over the weekend (44 yards), and that’s great, but he did little to change my stance — he’s not someone I’m banking on as long as this offense is reasonably healthy. The Chargers have allowed a league-low 4.6 yards per catch after the reception this season; Tampa Bay’s tight end doesn’t grace my top 15 this week.

Cole Kmet, TE | CHI (at MIN)

Risk is a funny thing. It’s kind of like dessert. If the upside is good enough, I’m willing to overlook the high-calorie count or potential health ramifications.

But why take that on if the best case isn’t enough to put a smile on my face? Cole Kmet is a player who needs a touchdown to pay off. That’s a tough sell when you consider that he doesn’t have a single end-zone look during Chicago’s seven-game skid. He’s an Oreo Sundae without ice cream … What’s the point?

He has just three catches for 26 yards to show for his 67 routes run over the past two games. With the receivers taking turns flashing, there’s not nearly enough target upside to even consider Kmet as a realistic option in most situations.

Dallas Goedert, TE | PHI (vs. PIT)

Dallas Goedert has been placed on injured reserve with a knee injury, and while he plays an important role in a potent offense, there’s no reason to tie up a roster spot in holding out hope for a return when first eligible in Week 17.

We saw Goedert earn looks down the stretch of last season and score in the playoff loss to the Buccaneers. I’m not against looking in this direction for playoff-oriented fantasy drafts presuming he shows us health in the final two weeks of the regular season, but for standard fantasy leaguers who were counting on Philadelphia’s tight end … welcome to the land of the tight end streamers!

Dalton Kincaid, TE | BUF (at DET)

Dalton Kincaid has now missed three consecutive games due to a knee injury, and while I typically project a return to action before a fourth missed game in instances like this (if he was going to miss four games, the Bills could have opened up a roster spot by placing him on IR a month ago), I’m not sure we get that this week.

The Bills are still technically alive for the top seed in the AFC, but that seems like a fleeting dream after they gave up a game in the standings last week. Barring a dramatic shift in reporting, I’m not banking on having Kincaid as a full-go this week. And for a player who is more than 300 days separated from his last game with 55 receiving yards, can you really justify playing a compromised version of him with your season on the line?

Dalton Schultz, TE | HOU (vs. MIA)

It may not seem like much, but Dalton Schultz has been the better of the Dalton tight ends this season, and it hasn’t been close. Houston’s tight end has been a top-15 performer at the position in three of his past four games, a level of production that isn’t going to swing matchups, but can save you from complete disaster.

There is, of course, a risk profile here that you have to consider and that is why he is available in some spots and ranked outside of the top-10. Schultz has but one end-zone target this season (Week 6) and hasn’t reached 50 air yards in a contest since Halloween.

For me, I’m comfortable going in this direction if pushed. Tank Dell is averaging just 47 yards with a 52% catch rate over the past month, leaving the door open for Schultz to be, consistently, C.J. Stroud’s second option in a passing game with top-10 upside.

For me, he’s not much different than a Mark Andrews or Pat Freiermuth in that regard – a profile that ranks as a low-end TE1 in a game that could see plenty of points scored.

David Njoku, TE | CLE (vs. KC)

The Patrick Mahomes/Travis Kelce connection is art and the versatility of Trey McBride is special, but the raw athleticism of David Njoku makes him as appealing as anyone at the position despite a quarterback situation that can only be described as semi-organized chaos these days.

He flashed that potential with a late 15-yard touchdown grab over the weekend, propelling him to his second top-five finish at the position for a second straight game (and the third time in four contests). Njoku’s red zone and slot usage have spiked, two parts of a role that I weigh heavier than most.

I’m sorry, but nothing attached to Jameis Winston can be labeled as a Tier 1 asset. That said, Njoku is very much in the second tier at the tight end position and is my highest-ranked tight end in this game.

Dawson Knox, TE | BUF (at DET)

Dawson Knox has assumed the Dalton Kincaid role, posting a snap share north of 81% in two of the starter’s three DNPs. From a spreadsheet-only point of view, the case for streaming a player like this is reasonably straightforward — he’s tethered to Josh Allen in an offense without much in the way of alpha target earners.

Of course, our game is played on the field and that is where this profile loses some traction. Last week, in a shootout that was played without Keon Coleman (wrist) and with QB1 wearing the Superman cape, Knox’s 29 routes resulted in one very forced target. His only look against the Rams was a screen pass that came two yards behind the line of scrimmage, not exactly a showcase of him being able to win a route.

If Kincaid returns this week, I don’t think you’re playing either Buffalo tight end; and if Kincaid doesn’t return this week, I don’t think you’re playing either Buffalo tight end. The Lions own a top-five defense in terms of YAC yards allowed and opponent completion percentage — the idea of Knox is far more appealing than the realistic application of him.

Evan Engram, TE | JAX (vs. NYJ)

Backup quarterbacks around the league are tanking pass-catcher play, but that’s really not the case in Jacksonville when it comes to Evan Engram’s splits

With Mac Jones, 2024:

• 28.7% on-field target share
• 26.7% red-zone target rate
• 5.6 average depth of target

With Trevor Lawrence, 2024:

• 24.6% on-field target share
• 10% red-zone target rate
• 6.0 average depth of target

I conveniently used rate stats to mask the fact that Engram has turned 29 Jones targets into just 139 touchdown-less yards this season. It’s my article, I’m allowed to bend numbers how I see fit and this is one of those instances.

Engram was in the slot for 41.5% of his routes last week, a season-high, and when you combine that with a Jets defense that is nothing more than average on balls thrown 10+ yards down the field, there’s enough of a projectable floor here to start him with confidence.

George Kittle, TE | SF (vs. LAR)

With the young star power at the tight end position and the general struggles of the 49ers, is it possible that George Kittle’s season has been a bit overlooked up to this point?

His first target last week against the Bears resulted in a 33-yard reception (the fifth time in six games he’s had a 30-yard gain), and when all was said and done, he cleared 125 receiving yards for the second time this year,

Top-10 TE finishes, 2024:

• Kittle: 10
• Trey McBride: Nine
• Brock Bowers: Eight

Kittle was inactive for San Francisco’s first game against Los Angeles, but that didn’t stop Brock Purdy from dominating (292 yards and three scores on 30 pass attempts). If that form reappears this week with the 49ers’ season on the brink, Kittle has a good chance to pace the position in scoring this weekend.

Grant Calcaterra TE | PHI (vs. PIT)

Grant Calcaterra was on the field for 91.1% of Philadelphia’s offensive snaps against the Panthers last week, a role that should be his for the next three weeks at a minimum with Dallas Goedert on injured reserve.

He’s an efficient player (20 catches on 23 targets this season with a 6.3-yard aDOT) and that creates an avenue to production, but you need to be aware that this is a thin profile due to the nature of this offense.

The Eagles own the highest rush rate over expectation this year. And with both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith healthy (52.6% combined target share in Week 14), the risk far outweighs the reward. If I’m chasing production on the waiver wire this week, give me Chig Okonkwo (vs. CIN) or Juwan Johnson (vs.WAS) – it’s not close.

Hunter Henry, TE | NE (at ARI)

Hunter Henry celebrated his 30th birthday on Saturday and enters this week having earned at least eight targets in each of his past three games (Trey McBride is the only other TE who can claim such an active streak).

The quality of those targets is, naturally, a concern. Henry hasn’t had a chunk play (20+ yards) since the team returned from its London date with the Jaguars and his 63.3% catch rate over the past month isn’t exactly a floor elevator. In a PPR setting, you can stream this direction, as it is very possible that he was cut during the bye week.

The Cardinals allow opponents to complete 69.4% of passes (fourth highest), a defensive flaw that should bring double-digit fantasy points into the conversation.

I have Henry ranked outside of my top 12 (one touchdown this season), but he’s easily ahead of Kyle Pitts, Cade Otton, and Cole Kmet this week.

Isaiah Likely, TE | BAL (at NYG)

Isaiah Likely saw his involvement spike in Week 13 before the bye (five catches on eight targets against the Eagles with a touchdown) and with an elite athletic profile, that level of involvement requires our analysis.

I really want to speak Likely into happening, but I think that’s going to be more of an offseason project than one during the playoffs. All of those looks netted just 38 yards against Philadelphia, leaving him with just one 50-yard game since he burst onto the scene with a 9-111-1 season opener against the Chiefs.

Through 14 weeks, Likely has a 58% snap share and 19% on-field target rate, a profile that doesn’t land him in the streaming range with Mark Andrews being used with regularity in scoring situations.

Jake Ferguson, TE | DAL (at CAR)

Jake Ferguson returned to action on Monday night, and while a three-catch, 32-yard performance isn’t going to jump off the page, I thought he looked reasonably healthy — a 76.3% snap share indicates optimism moving forward.

Cooper Rush has thrown over 30 passes in four consecutive starts; while the plurality of targets goes in the direction of CeeDee Lamb, there’s plenty of room for a secondary pass catcher to assume enough of a role to matter.

Ferguson isn’t a lock to pick up that role, but I’d make him the favorite to do so. That makes him a low-end TE1 against the worst-scoring defense in the league (29.9 PPG).

Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE | CAR (vs. DAL)

The potential is there for Ja’Tavion Sanders to develop alongside Bryce Young, and that’s going to have my attention in the 2025 redraft prep. I think there’s a lot to like in the rookie, but not with your season on the line.

This season, just one of his 233 routes has earned an end-zone target. With five instances in which a single-digit on-field target share was posted, the floor is too low to garner our serious interest as a streaming candidate.

Jonnu Smith, TE | MIA (at HOU)

If last week from Jonnu Smith wasn’t the embodiment of the tight end position, I don’t know what is.

The veteran tight end didn’t have a single reception during regulation against the Jets and was a non-factor for over three hours of real-time. After struggling to find any room to operate through four quarters, Smith dominated the overtime period with three catches on eight Miami plays as they kept their playoff hopes alive courtesy of, you guessed it, a 10-yard Smith score.

The veteran tight end has cleared 13 PPR points in four straight games for the first time in his career and has proven capable of earning consistent looks in an offense that has scored 30+ points in three of their past four.

Do I worry that there is a floor to consider here with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle both getting on track last week? I do, but his usage in scoring situations for an underdog with an implied point total of over 20 points is enough for him to crack my top 10 this week and for the remainder of the fantasy season.

Juwan Johnson, TE | NO (vs. WAS)

Juwan Johnson had a 30-yard completion in the first quarter last week and was later left uncovered for an 11-yard touchdown. No one is going to fill the void left by Taysom Hill and the injury to Derek Carr further complicates this situation, but without reliable options, Johnson’s 63 games of NFL experience make him a good bet to, at the very least, see consistent usage.

Johnson has scored on 9% of his career targets, a role that seems not only safe (three straight games with a red-zone reception) but valuable this week against the fourth-worst red-zone defense in the NFL. New Orleans’ tight end checks behind Hunter Henry and Zach Ertz – though he is on that tier and a viable streaming option in deeper formats or a reasonable DFS punt play.

Kyle Pitts, TE | ATL (at LV)

When growing up, did you sometimes get so angry at a sibling, cousin, or pet that your emotions came out as laughter instead of anything violent? Like, a weird chuckle that sort of resembled a villain in a horror movie, where it was clear that the frustration was bubbling beneath the surface and just manifesting itself in an odd, nightmare-inducing cackle?

That’s about where we are in the Kyle Pitts experience. Over his past three games, the former Gator has run 82 routes and turned them into just 11 targets and 23 yards.

Gross.

Over the past 20 seasons, there have been three instances in which a tight end ran over 25 routes and earned multiple targets but failed to clear 15 receiving yards in three straight games

• Levine Toilolo (2014)
• Cameron Brate (2021)
• Pitts (2024, active)

Is that an oddly specific list? Of course, it is, but I don’t think you’d argue that it is an oddly specific way to highlight ineptitude at the highest of levels and that is what we are looking at here.

Harness the feelings you have toward Pitts right now and I’ll do the same. Together, we can resist the urge to go back to the well in August.

I hope.

Luke Schoonmaker, TE | DAL (at CAR)

Luke Schoonmaker saw streamable volume when Jake Ferguson was on the shelf (20 targets and a touchdown across three games), but his snap share cratered to 39% on Monday night with the starter back on the field, and that simply isn’t enough of a role in a bottom-10 offense.

You’re streaming the position, and that means not hesitating to move on — Schoonmaker shouldn’t be rostered in any formats.

Mark Andrews, TE | BAL (at NYG)

Mark Andrews has found his footing as a fantasy producer after a slow start, saving managers from a complete waste of a mid-round pick this summer.

Since Week 6, despite ranking tied for 13th at the position in targets, Andrews has two more touchdowns than any other tight end (seven). As a result, he’s been a top-eight producer in three of his past four games and a top-12 play in six of eight. The touchdowns are one thing, but the 73.2% snap share in Week 13 (his second-highest of the season) is what has my attention.

The veteran tight end has caught 78.8% of his targets over his past seven games and has established himself as the TE1 in this elite offense. Of course, that doesn’t make him as bulletproof of an option in years past, especially with a peaking aDOT that introduces new variance into the equation.

Andrews is my TE10 this week, a ranking that is fueled by Baltimore’s implied point total of 29.

Mike Gesicki, TE | CIN (at TEN)

Mike Gesiciki’s status in the NFL is based on him being a plus route runner for the position, and while we’ve seen that ring true at times this season (96.8% of his snaps have seen him run a route), that’s a skill that only matters for us if he is on the field.

• Week 14 at Dallas Cowboys: 29.2% snap share

That’s a third straight game of decline; while it was a nice run, he is firmly off of the acceptable streaming radar. Chig Okonkwo and Grant Calcaterra are two options that I’d prefer without a second thought this week and moving forward.

Pat Freiermuth, TE | PIT (at PHI)

Pat Freiermuth pulled in a 20-yard touchdown up the seam last week, giving him a score in consecutive games after being held to a single TD in his six games prior. His role has looked a bit different this season and I think it actually enhances his fantasy profile.

Entering this season, seven of Patty Football’s 11 touchdown receptions came on end-zone targets, but none of his five have this season. Pittsburgh has been more creative in getting him the rock in space, and while asking him to convert those looks into touchdowns instead of simply having him post-up brings about the potential for scoring droughts, it also results in an increase in projectable target count.

I’m expecting George Pickens to return to the field this week and his field-stretching capabilities only open up room for Freiermuth to operate between the hashes against a defense that won’t discourage Pittsburgh from taking those layup short targets (0.4% interception rate on short passes this season, the third-lowest in the league).

Freiermuth’s target heatmap (2023-24):

Sam LaPorta, TE | DET (vs. BUF)

To call this season a grind for Sam LaPorta managers would be an understatement. We are talking about a player who we thought might be the future of the position and has just one finish better than TE8 this season.

That said, if you’ve survived up to this point, I think you’re set to be rewarded. LaPorta has earned at least six targets in four straight and four of his looks over that stretch have come with his feet planted in the end zone. Efficiency hasn’t been the issue (9% more PPR points per target this year than last) and I can’t imagine volume is a concern as the Lions, a team who peaks at home, gets to attack a Bills defense that allowed Matthew Stafford to complete 23-of-30 passes for 320 yards and two touchdowns last week.

I think you can feel safe about starting LaPorta in all formats this week and having him finally live up to something close to the value we assigned him during draft season.

T.J. Hockenson, TE | MIN (vs. CHI)

Fantasy football this time of year, more than any point during the first three months, is about reading trends and making a stand. In Week 5, it’s easy to slow-play a positive trend, wanting to wait for a true breakout before investing, understanding that time is on your side.

We no longer have that luxury as many leagues are in the playoffs now. T.J. Hockenson has posted a snap share north of 60% in three straight games after he was worked back into a full-time role with a sub-50% share in his first three games. He’s on the field consistently in an offense that we trust more now than we did back on draft day — that gives him all sorts of potential when it comes to your willingness to be loyal to him up to this point.

READ MORE: NFL Week 15 Stats, Trends, and Insights — Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes for Every Game

In comparing this season to last, Hockenson’s aDOT is up 11.8% without a dramatic shift in efficiency, a role that looks good on him with nothing but safe weather games to end his regular season. I’m encouraged by the spike in red-zone usage and am willing to label him as a potential league winner that you should feel great about playing.

Last week, while Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison were busy putting on a historic show, Hockenson still caught 80% of his targets, saw an end-zone look, and flirted with double-figure PPR points. If what we saw last week was something of a floor, I’m all the way in for this finishing kick as Minnesota jostles for playoff positioning.

Travis Kelce, TE | KC (at CLE)

By normal human standards, a 100-catch pace with TE1 production in nearly 40% of games would be plenty, but Travis Kelce isn’t held to “normal human standards.” Expectations aside, we are also getting dangerously close to pumpkin time for this future Hall of Famer:

• 2023: Six straight scoreless games to end the regular season
• 2022: Six straight scoreless games to end the regular season

Under most circumstances, I wouldn’t have even looked back at those seasons for data like that, but what do those years have in common?

Super Bowls.

The Chiefs have won the big one in each of those seasons and their star tight end has been a massive reason why (612 yards and seven scores with a 86.8% catch rate during the playoffs). They were rewarded for managing him down the stretch and with some breathing room for the AFC’s top seed now, we could see something similar over the final month.

On the plus side, Kelce has touched the ball inside the 20-yard line multiple times in five of his past seven games, a usage rate that can keep him as a top-10 producer, even if the volume takes a hit coming home. He’s closer to TE10 than TE1 for the first time in a long time for me, but that doesn’t mean you must bench him.

Trey McBride, TE | ARI (vs. NE)

I continue to rank Trey McBride over Brock Bowers and I don’t feel bad about it in season-long leagues or in dynasty. Is the profile really that different?

McBride has posted three straight top-five finishes at the position, but the production isn’t what I’m tracking. He has at least a dozen targets in each of those games (all Cardinal losses), joining Travis Kelce and Tony Gonzalez as the only tight ends with a run like that since 2000.

He’s getting all of the volume that Bowers does, but with more offensive upside, right? I’m not suggesting that this Kyler Murray-led offense comes without risk, but if you’re giving me plus-level involvement, I’m taking the Cardinals’ offensive trajectory in a meaningful game over that of the Raiders in a spot where losses hold value.

Tucker Kraft, TE | GB (at SEA)

Tucker Kraft has given you a score in two of his past three games and, in theory, the doubling of his season-long end-zone target count last week in Detroit is encouraging.

But is there enough in this profile to project favorably? Kraft has yet to hit 40 air yards in a game and his route count is trending down (18-23 routes run in four straight games after averaging 31.8 in his previous four games).

Kraft is on the fringe of “startability,” joining other low-volume options with a quarterback we trust like Zach Ertz and Dalton Schultz.

Tyler Conklin, TE | NYJ (at JAX)

If you liked what you saw from Aaron Rodgers on Sunday and want exposure this weekend, do so in the DFS streets. That’s a place where you can be properly rewarded for creativity – in season-long leagues, you’re simply taking on levels of risk that are difficult to justify if you’re considering Tyler Conklin at this point.

Yes, his 15.2% on-field target share last week was his best since Week 8, but with Allen Lazard working his way back to full strength and a 3-33-0 stat line to show for Rodgers’ best game in quite some time – what is the realistic ceiling that you’re targeting?

Will Dissly, TE | LAC (vs. TB)

Will Dissly was shut out in Week 13 against the Falcons and left late in the first half over the weekend with a shoulder injury, leaving fantasy managers with very little to show for investing in him after a strong usage month.

I’m fine with moving on. The idea of betting on a good quarterback with an uncertain target hierarchy was sound, but nothing in this profile is impressive enough to overlook the current health concerns.

Zach Ertz, TE | WAS (at NO)

I understand the idea behind being skeptical when it comes to Zach Ertz because I have been. There isn’t much single-target upside (69 tight ends have a 30-yard reception since Ertz last did) and this offense has been spotty at times, but the veteran has been nothing short of great.

For the season, he has six top-10 finishes and is filling an important role for this developing unit. He has at least five targets and a touchdown in three straight games, the first tight end at this age to do that since Antonio Gates in 2016, a trend that is strong enough to land him inside my top 15 this week.

I can’t go much higher than that (ultimately, Ertz has three games with 50 yards, the last of which came in October), but you can go this direction if you’re stuck without a stable option.