Elijah Moore’s fantasy outlook and projection for 2021

Heading into the NFL season as a potential rookie breakout, should you draft Elijah Moore with his fantasy outlook and ADP in 2021?

One of the hottest names of the 2021 fantasy football rookie draft cycle is New York Jets WR Elijah Moore. As a first-year player on a team in transition, what is Moore’s fantasy outlook, and can he find his footing quickly enough to become a fantasy producer early on and vastly outperform his ADP?

Elijah Moore’s fantasy outlook for 2021

Ole Miss has quickly become a hotbed for incredible wide receivers. After producing both DK Metcalf and A.J. Brown, Moore looks primed to join these ranks and etch his name into Jets history. 

Selected as the No. 34 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Moore put himself on the map after a head-turning junior campaign. He was the primary weapon in Lane Kiffin’s offense in 2020, totaling 86 receptions, 1,193 yards, and 8 touchdowns — all in just eight games.

Moore wins at virtually every level of the field, especially off the line with lightning-quick footwork — he knows how to create separation. Moreover, his route running will allow him to produce right away in the NFL.

Moore tested off the charts with a 4.35 40-yard dash, 36-inch vertical jump, 121-inch broad jump, and 6.67 three-cone drill in the pre-draft process. It’s going to take every bit of this athleticism to break through what is a crowded receiver room.

Moore has all the skills needed to be a rookie breakout. The only thing that could hold Moore back from reaching the potential of fellow rookies like Ja’Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, and Rashod Bateman will be scoring opportunities. 

With that said, Moore could quickly establish himself as the WR2 on the Jets. He could become Zach Wilson‘s go-to target underneath, raising his fantasy outlook in PPR scoring formats that reward volume.

Fantasy projection

Deciphering a fantasy outlook for anyone on the Jets is difficult. It is a brand new offense with a rookie head coach, after all.

I will say this — the Jets will be a better team in 2021. Sure, that is a low bar to cross, but it is a start. I like a lot of the moves they made this offseason. The defense was a significant focus, along with upgrading the offensive line by selecting the versatile Alijah Vera-Tucker.

The most important addition, however, came via subtraction when they moved on from HC Adam Gase. He went from being an NFL head coach to an offensive coordinator for a high school football team. Let that one sink in a bit.

Because of this, we likely see a more competitive team overall than the one that averaged just 57.2 plays (31st), 279.9 yards (32nd), and 15.2 points per game (32nd). 

Jamison Crowder is Moore’s primary competition

For Moore to have success in Year 1, he needs to navigate a crowded receiver room. Not only did the Jets sign former Titans WR Corey Davis to a lucrative deal, but they also brought in Keelan Cole and restructured Jamison Crowder’s contract to keep him on the roster for 2021. 

Crowder is the one to pay attention to, as he will be Moore’s main competition. Moore projects to be a prototypical slot receiver based on his build (5-foot-9 and 178 pounds), and Crowder has played nearly 75% of his snaps out of the slot. While Crowder has been arguably the best player on the Jets since joining them, he lacks explosiveness. This is where Moore could pull away from Crowder as he brings that missing element to the offense.

Although I expect there to be a rotation to an extent, Moore will end up as the go-to slot receiver. Early projections have Moore slated to see around 85-90 targets with close to 55 receptions for nearly 700 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Elijah Moore’s fantasy ADP

According to Sleeper, Moore currently has an ADP of 137.1 in half PPR formats. In superflex formats, where quarterbacks see an increased value, he slides back slightly to 140.3. Meanwhile, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Moore has an ADP of 123.08. His ADP is lowest on Fleaflicker, where he is being selected at an average of 153rd.

Should you draft Moore in 2021 for fantasy?

When targeting players in the later rounds of the draft, I love to select players with dominant athletic profiles on depth charts lacking true hierarchy. It becomes easier for those players to establish a path for increased opportunities early on in the season. Moore fits the bill on both counts. 

As a WR5 on your fantasy team, few players have the potential upside of Moore. Although the lack of scoring chances lowers his ceiling, a high-end WR4 finish is not out of the question.

Tommy Garrett is a Fantasy Analyst for Pro Football Network and is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). You can read all of Tommy’s work here and give him a follow on Twitter: @TommyGarrettPFN.