What a prime-time game to wrap up Week 11 — a Super Bowl rematch featuring the teams with the two best records in football! Will Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles get their revenge, or will Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have their way again with this Philly defense? Let’s dive into the Eagles vs. Chiefs predictions, picks against the spread, and player prop bets.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Lines
Unlike the Super Bowl, Kansas City was a short favorite when the Eagles vs. Chiefs odds first opened. Since then, the Chiefs have fluctuated between being favored by 2.5-3 points. This will be the first time the Eagles are an underdog with Hurts as their starting quarterback in 31 regular-season games.
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Eagles +115, Chiefs -135
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions
Bearman: This should be one of the better games of the season — a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl classic and a matchup of the teams with the best record in each conference. Even though the game is in Kansas City, I think the wrong team is favored here, as the Eagles have been the better team all season, with the Chiefs still figuring things out on offense.
Kansas City got by Miami with their defense and the Dolphins’ mistakes, but they’ve struggled in recent weeks against the likes of Denver twice, Minnesota, and the Jets.
If the Super Bowl rematch was today, I would make the Eagles a slight favorite at a neutral site. I’ll play them at 3.
Pick: Eagles +3 (-120 at DraftKings)
Blewis: I think the Eagles are the better team, but this matchup is more favorable for the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is 20-6-1 ATS in games when the point spread is three points or less, and per the Action Network, he is 15-1 SU in his last 16 night games.
As we saw in the Super Bowl, I’m expecting Mahomes to be able to pick apart this Philly pass defense. Especially since the Chiefs’ offensive line, which is the top-ranked unit in pass block win rate, should be able to contain their pass rush once again.
I think this will be a one-score game, but I have to lean with the Chiefs here as long as it’s still available somewhere under three points.
Pick: Chiefs -2.5 (-120 at ESPN BET)
Soppe: The rookie has seen at least one red-zone look in seven of nine games this season and is facing the seventh-worst red-zone defense in the league. What’s not to like?
I love his usage when the Chiefs get in close, but his profile suggests that some splash plays are possible. Through 10 weeks, he ranks 13th in yards per route and fifth in average separation. Patrick Mahomes has a 127.4 QB rating when throwing Rice the ball, and I think Andy Reid is a smart coach — success at that high a level means scheming more things in his direction.
Pick: Rashee Rice anytime TD (+245 at DraftKings)
Soppe: This season, Hurts and the Eagles have played four games against a team that either creates pressure at an above-average rate OR owns an offense that grades out top five in pass rate over expectation. Is that an ultra-specific set of qualifiers?
Yep! But stats are like jokes — the setup is great to have, but the punch line brings it all together. The Chiefs check both of those boxes — I’d argue that hitting either threshold puts the opponent in a good passing spot, but both?
- Hurts in four such games: 105 completions
- Hurts in five non-qualified games: 105 completions
Pick: Jalen Hurts over 21.5 completions (-105 at DraftKings)
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