As the NFL season approaches, fantasy football is upon us. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Chicago Bears RB D’Onta Foreman’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — the Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
D’Onta Foreman’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
The Texans drafted Foreman in the third round of the 2017 NFL Draft. Paired with established bell cow Lamar Miller, the two were supposed to help elevate a franchise that was building toward a deep playoff run.
But it never played out that — at least, not from Foreman’s perspective. The young back’s injuries limited him to only 103 touches in his first two campaigns before missing the entire 2019 season. Then in 2020, Tennessee gave him 23 touches as he operated behind Derrick Henry’s backup, Jeremy McNichols.
As fantasy managers surely remember, all this changed in 2021 when the former promising RB finally had the health and the opportunity to shine. Replacing an injured Henry and partnering with Dontrell Hilliard, Foreman finally proved that he could be an NFL starter.
After a lot of bad breaks, he secured another positive break last season with the Panthers, as his new team traded Christian McCaffrey. The roster move catapulted him to the top of the depth chart, ahead of Chuba Hubbard.
The 1-5 Panthers’ season appeared to be over when they sent McCaffrey to San Francisco. But Foreman looked very comfortable in the lead-back role. His team was an impressive 4-1 when he exceeded 20 carries. Their only defeat in those contests came in one of the season’s most exciting games, in which Carolina’s Eddy Pineiro missed a 32-yard field goal in overtime, which would have won it.
On a side note, had the Panthers won that game — had they been 5-0 when Foreman surpassed 20 carries — and if all other game results had proceeded as they did — then they would have overtaken the Bucs and won the NFC South.
Needless to say, Foreman was a big reason why.
Now he’s on his fourth team since the summer of 2019. He’s been a backup to established starters for years. He’s grown accustomed to biding his time and being ready to jump in and lead his backfield if/when needed.
The Bears’ RB corps is fairly crowded with starter-caliber guys, led by Khalil Herbert. Fourth-round rookie Roschon Johnson might push for carries early on if things break right for him. And Travis Homer brings enough versatility to see occasional action.
[the_ad_group id=”67285″]
This season, Foreman has a chance to own the 1A role. But it’s no longer a zero-sum situation. It’s not about “If the starter gets hurt, Foreman will be fantasy-relevant.” It’s more complicated than that.
Chicago might go with a hot-hand approach, especially if Foreman starts slow. They might give the elusive and physical Johnson more goal-line work. And there’s almost no way Herbert will remain on the sidelines.
So from a fantasy perspective, we cannot count on Foreman to lead this backfield in a meaningful way. Perhaps at most, he’ll be a 12-to-14-touch RB.
Since he’s rarely involved in the passing game, there’s not a lot of room for boom outings. He’ll probably need to score to be startable.
The Bears’ offense should be more prolific than Carolina’s last year. With Justin Fields at the helm and DJ Moore on board, scoring opportunities should increase. Using the “high tides lift all boats” analogy, Foreman could benefit as a 200- or even a 225-touch RB in a top-16 offense.
However, those 200-225 touches might be a pipe dream. If Herbert gets off to a strong start, we could see Foreman merely as the 1B or even 1C back, giving him an uncomfortably low fantasy floor, despite his obvious on-field talent.
Should You Draft D’Onta Foreman This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Foreman with an ADP of RB50, which is a reasonable spot for a guy who was the overall RB38 last season, despite mostly sitting the first six games. As long as he’s out there, he should be able to eat up enough yards to crack the top 50.
Still, those aren’t encouraging sentiments. Foreman needs volume to be even remotely usable in fantasy, and such volume isn’t close to guaranteed. Chicago signed him this offseason to a one-year contract. They’re seemingly more invested in Herbert and Johnson.
That’s not to say we should ignore Foreman’s potential. The Bears are eying a legitimate shot at the NFC North title. That’s what I meant by “hot hand” earlier. If Foreman’s helping this team win — just as he did in Carolina last year, as well as Tennessee the year before — then he’ll keep earning work. It’s that simple.
But the difference between eight touches and 14 touches per game is huge in fantasy. At 14, he should be able to serve as a top 32-36 RB. At eight touches, he probably won’t crack the top 50.
Given his relatively low ceiling, he’s not an enticing draft target, even at his affordable price. Paired with Herbert and/or Johnson in a deeper league, Foreman might make sense as a hedge bet. But as a standalone draft pick, Foreman isn’t worth the cost.
