After a strong start to his NFL career, what is the fantasy football outlook for Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf? As one of the most dynamic receivers, he seems to put up highlight-reel moments every single week. Will he continue to develop in his third season, and should he be drafted at his current ADP?
DK Metcalf’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Remember when the internet was set on fire by Metcalf doing the three-cone drill poorly in his underwear one time in Indianapolis, replacing years of dominance on film and otherwise elite grade measurements? Man, what a time to be alive.
I think it’s safe to say Metcalf has done fairly well for himself since that moment. After a WR30 finish in his rookie year, Metcalf took a noticeable step forward in Year 2. He recorded 83 receptions on 129 targets for 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns as the WR7, averaging 17.0 ppg. He was a WR2 or better in 50% of his games last season.
In just two years, Metcalf has 2,203 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns. Not bad for a guy who had a lousy three-cone. For perspective, Metcalf is one of just nine WRs since 2000 to record 2,200+ yards in his first two seasons. In seven of his first eight games, he had at least 6 catches and 90 yards, with four games in that stretch of over 100 yards.
The only player with more TDs on balls that traveled 20+ yards was Tyreek Hill’s 14 to Metcalf’s 10. However, no one had more on passes that traveled 30 yards or more. When you can roast everyone with a slant or vertical, you can get by not having a Keenan Allen-style route tree. Throw in the fact Metcalf leads the NFL in end-zone targets (32) since 2019, and you have the recipe for a superstar.
Metcalf is not a perfect prospect, don’t let that scare you off
Metcalf is not a foolproof pick. When he has his “boom” games, he wins you weeks. But there have been several “bust” games sprinkled along the way. Metcalf has been a WR36 or worse in 66% of his games. When he did not score last season (8), he averaged 11.3 ppg but had four games below 9.5 points and three below 5.2 points.
We also need to look at who those games were against. Plain and simple, Metcalf was shut down by elite corners, something that elite WRs like Davante Adams do not let happen. In four games against the Cardinals (Patrick Peterson) and the Rams (Jalen Ramsey), Metcalf recorded just 13 receptions on 22 targets for 156 yards and 1 touchdown.
If Metcalf wants to be in consideration as the best in the NFL and become the WR1 for fantasy, this can’t happen, especially not at his current second-round ADP.
With all of this said, I believe Metcalf continues to progress and become a more well-rounded receiver. Just because he was never asked to run routes other than a nine, slant, or post does not mean he can’t. He just did what he was asked. Under new OC Shane Waldron, we may see him evolve into one of the most dangerous players in the NFL. That’s the type of player you want on your fantasy team in 2021.
Fantasy projection
For as much as the Seahawks have talked about wanting to be balanced and are looking to run more, they simply can not take the ball out of Russell Wilson’s hands. The buzzwords of the offseason in Seattle have been “tempo and explosion.” They want to be able to get the plays in and execute an up-tempo offense, much like we have seen in Los Angeles during Waldron’s time with the Rams.
During Waldron’s tenure with the Rams (2018 to 2020), the offense ranked second in plays per game (67), sixth in rushes per game (27), and 15th in passes per game (40). Imagine what this offense can do when you give Wilson 40 attempts per game. At that rate, they might be able to outscore what their porous defense allows.
If you invest fantasy picks in Seattle’s offense, prepare for a possible slow start. The opening schedule is a gauntlet of the best defenses in football. Outside of Tennessee in Week 2, the Seahawks’ first seven games are against the Colts, Vikings, 49ers, Rams, Steelers, and the Saints. For a team trying to install a new offense, they need to hit the ground running and attack.
While I won’t be surprised if Tyler Lockett has more receptions than Metcalf when the season ends, Metcalf is the clear WR1 on this offense, especially for fantasy. Metcalf could see around 135 targets, close to 85 receptions, 1,300 to 1,330 yards, and 10 touchdowns based on current projections.
DK Metcalf’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Metcalf is currently the WR5 with an ADP of 17.0 in half PPR formats. In superflex formats, where QBs see a boost in value, he slides a bit to 26.0. Meanwhile, on Fleaflicker, he is going as the WR6 at 19.5 ADP. Similarly, on NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Metcalf is the WR6 with a 20.56 ADP.
Should you draft Metcalf in 2021 for fantasy?
While Metcalf can frustrate you when deep balls are a yard off, he can win your matchup when he hits. That’s the trade-off you make for unparalleled upside at receiver. Every time Wilson drops back, it could be a 14-point play waiting to happen.
If we suddenly see Metcalf mixing in more routes and keeping CBs honest, we could be looking at the WR1. Until then, he will see a boost of a couple of spots in rankings in 0.5 PPR formats compared to full PPR. Nonetheless, he remains a must-start WR1 in both formats.