As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Philadelphia Eagles TE Dallas Goedert’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Dallas Goedert’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Goedert might be more enjoyable to watch on the field than on fantasy rosters. He’s great, but he isn’t markedly better statistically than the next couple of tight end tiers. Last year — Goedert’s first full season without sharing the job with Zach Ertz — he posted a sterling 55-702-3 receiving line in 12 games. That might be viewed as an elite NFL tight end. Expanded to a full season, that would equate to a 78-995-4 line. Simply fantastic.
Yet, despite finishing as the TE5 in fantasy points per game (11.8), a litany of mostly undrafted tight ends (Greg Dulcich, Juwan Johnson, etc.) trailed by only about 3-4 points per game. Yes, that’s a meaningful difference, but Goedert isn’t a fantasy asset who effectively puts managers over the top. He’s a modest difference-maker priced as a near-elite fantasy TE.
That his 11.8 points per game were a career-high speaks further to Goedert’s seemingly precarious position near the top. How much room is there to grow? Can he become a 13+ point option, where Ertz resided for four straight years when the latter was a no-questions-asked weekly fantasy starter?
No doubt, Goedert has a lot going for him. In a top-heavy passing attack, he’s the No. 3 option behind A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Last year, his 79.7% catch rate led all tight ends with 40+ targets. And when he exited for five weeks beginning in Week 11, he was fifth in the league in yards after the catch behind Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey, Cooper Kupp, and Justin Jefferson. For context, Travis Kelce was the next best tight end (No. 16).
So yeah, Goedert is an incredible football player. But in fantasy, that’s not always enough.
Because while Eagle RBs’ target share last season was the second-lowest in the NFL, the addition of catch-friendly D’Andre Swift could generate more backfield looks at the expense of downfield looks. Goedert was merely No. 10 in TE targets per game in 2022. Barring something unforeseen, that target share isn’t likely to increase in 2023.
Goedert’s realistic ceiling appears to be stuck between near-elite and the next tier down. If he can replicate last year’s efficiency, he could achieve an 80-1,050-7 stat line. Fantastic. At the same time, any drop in efficiency and/or usage could cap him at around 70-800-6. Still great. But not “fantasy difference-maker” great, especially based on his lofty market value.
Should You Draft Dallas Goedert This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Goedert with an ADP of TE7. FantasyPros’ composite of industry experts places him in the TE5 spot.
Now, fantasy tight ends function differently than QBs, RBs, and WRs. Those latter three positions offer mammoth production from their top players. If you strike gold in the fifth round with an eventual top-five WR, then wow. Or if you find a top-five QB in the 10th, then you might just be a title contender.
But TEs like Goedert shouldn’t be valued based on how they rank at the end of the season. They should be valued based on their point differential with other top-10 and top-15 options.
As alluded to above, if you’re securing only a three- or four-point weekly advantage (on average) with Goedert versus someone you can find near the end of your draft, then he’s probably not worth reaching for.
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Essentially, you’re not getting the boom that other positions offer. Goedert’s probably not going to be the next Kelce. And in a league packed with potentially “great” fantasy tight ends, why is Goedert a better bet than most?
As a safe-floor play, Goedert makes sense at his ADP. However, something “making sense” is not a good reason to draft someone. For example, in the middle rounds, a complementary 1B running back — paired with the 1A you already drafted — would be preferable to taking Goedert. Because that 1B might go toe-to-toe with Goedert in weekly scoring, and could significantly outperform the Eagles’ TE if the 1A gets hurt.
Managers who draft Goedert might feel pressure to fill their TE slot, so they don’t have to worry about it later. Again, that’s not a good reason to draft someone. He’s a solid-floor/low-ceiling option for those seeking a top-10 tight end. He’s a better player than he is a fantasy draft pick.
