Cooper Kupp has had a rough two years since posting the greatest fantasy season of all time for a wide receiver in 2021.
Now the clear second option behind Puka Nacua, is the Rams WR actually being a bit undervalued in 2024 fantasy football drafts?
Should You Select Cooper Kupp at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 39th Overall (WR19)
- 2023 Recap: After an incredible 2021 season and a solid start in 2022, Kupp’s production dipped significantly in 2023. He averaged just 13.7 fantasy points per game and finished as the WR23, struggling with injuries and the emergence of Puka Nacua.
- Decreased Role: Kupp’s target share dropped to 25.6% in 2023, down from over 30% in his peak years. His yards per route run also decreased, indicating a decline in his effectiveness as the Rams’ primary option.
- 2024 Outlook: Kupp remains a valuable asset despite being the clear second option behind Nacua. With the Rams running a lot of 11-personnel, Kupp will still see plenty of opportunities, though his ceiling may be lower than in previous years.
- ADP Value: Kupp is currently being drafted as the WR19, 39th overall. This represents a significant discount compared to previous years, reflecting concerns about his age, injury history, and reduced role.
- Risk vs. Reward: While there’s a higher chance that Kupp’s decline in 2023 was the beginning of the end, he still offers potential value at his current ADP. Even a slight bounceback could make him a worthwhile pick, though younger receivers may offer more upside.
- Final Verdict: Kupp is a solid pick if he falls to the right spot, but his WR1 upside is likely limited. In a deep wide receiver pool, there may be more appealing options available, but Kupp’s proven track record makes him a viable choice for the right price.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Cooper Kupp
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
40) Kenneth Walker III, RB | Seattle Seahawks
41) Amari Cooper, WR | Cleveland Browns
42) Deebo Samuel Sr., WR | San Francisco 49ers
43) DJ Moore, WR | Chicago Bears
44) DeVonta Smith, WR | Philadelphia Eagles
45) Cooper Kupp, WR | Los Angeles Rams
46) Lamar Jackson, QB | Baltimore Ravens
47) David Montgomery, RB | Detroit Lions
48) Aaron Jones, RB | Minnesota Vikings
49) Zay Flowers, WR | Baltimore Ravens
50) Tee Higgins, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
Kupp’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
After Kupp’s historic 2021 campaign, he was naturally the consensus overall WR1 in 2022. While Kupp’s 2022 season was cut short due to injury, he was still averaging 22.4 fantasy points per game at the time he got hurt. As a result, it didn’t negatively impact his 2023 ADP too much.
Now, here we are a year later wondering if Kupp is just done.
It’s fair to give Kupp a bit of a pass for navigating a multi-week lingering ankle injury. However, there’s no sugarcoating his dip in production.
In 12 games, Kupp averaged a mere 13.7 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR23.
The emergence of Puka Nacua played a big role in Kupp’s decreased production. Kupp only saw a 25.6% target share and was targeted on just 25.6% of his routes. By contrast, those numbers were over 30% in 2021 and 2022. Kupp also averaged 1.99 yards per route run, 0.62 lower than the year prior.
Kupp’s 26-game run from the start of the 2021 season through the midpoint of 2022 was easily the greatest of all time. Since then, though, he’s been hurt multiple times and hasn’t produced at the same level when healthy.
Is Kupp a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
There was no injury discount with Kupp for fantasy managers in 2023. This year, we are getting a significant discount for the combination of age, injury, and poor performance.
To be fair, there’s a reason for that. It’s always risky to bet on an older player who showed clear signs of decline to rebound.
Kupp is 31 years old. There’s certainly a higher chance last season was the start of the end for him than just a blip.
Even so, Kupp presents a very interesting proposition. He’s one of a select few players with the obvious potential to break fantasy.
Kupp’s ADP sits at WR20 and No. 38 overall. At that price, he doesn’t need to be 2021 Kupp to be a value.
It’s clear Nacua is the new No. 1 for the Rams. However, LA consistently leads the NFL in 11-personnel. It’s not as if Kupp is coming off the field.
It wouldn’t take much for Kupp to be worth his draft position. After all, he’s going where he finished last season — a year in which he was hampered by injury.
If Kupp can stay healthy and maintain his reduced level of performance from last season, he should be mostly worth his cost in fantasy drafts. The smallest of bouncebacks would provide a positive return on investment.
From a pure value standpoint, Kupp seems worth it. The problem is the depth of the wide receiver position.
At his ADP, Kupp is surrounded by a bunch of young receivers, most of whom we assume we have not yet seen anywhere near their best seasons. We know we’ve seen Kupp’s best season.
There’s nothing wrong with taking Kupp. If he goes for the right price, I’m certainly going to do it. However, my general draft philosophy strongly favors taking young, ascending players.
I don’t think it’s fair to say Kupp lacks WR1 upside, but I do think he lacks high or even mid-WR1 upside. Therefore, I’m more inclined to take some of the guys going behind him who I believe possess similar upside, such as Tank Dell, Tee Higgins, and Amari Cooper.