At a position that desperately needs an influx of talent, Chicago Bears TE Cole Kmet should be on the sleeper radar for fantasy football in 2021. Could the potential organizational changes impact Kmet’s fantasy outlook, and should he be drafted at his current ADP?
Cole Kmet’s fantasy outlook for 2021
If you have played fantasy football for any period of time, you know how barren the tight end landscape can be, especially in the mid-to-late rounds of the draft. Those looking to find a potential sleeper or breakout candidate at the position might want to consider Kmet.
As a rookie, Kmet was not a full-time player for the majority of the 2020 season. In the team’s first nine games, Kmet played second fiddle to veteran Jimmy Graham and saw only 35% of the offensive snaps. During those nine contests, Kmet recorded 6 receptions on 8 targets for 79 yards and 1 touchdown. His 1.9 fantasy points were nothing to write home about, but things quickly changed.
Kmet’s rookie ascension
Even with Graham still on the field, Kmet appeared to jump him on the Bears’ depth chart. From Week 10 and on (seven games), Kmet played on 85% of the offensive snaps. He averaged 5.1 targets a game during this time and recorded 22 receptions for 164 yards and 1 TD. Averaging 6 ppg, Kmet showed he could take on a more prominent role.
The issue for 2021 is that Graham is still in Chicago. About halfway through the season, Graham was leading the NFL in red-zone targets. He ended the year with the fifth-most (19), including 12 inside the 10-yard line. If Kmet is going to break out, he desperately needs those coveted red-zone targets. Since Graham is constantly an injury risk as an 80-year-old going on 35, Kmet could get those targets.
All reports out of camp have been glowing in regards to Kmet and his continued development. If what we saw last season holds true, along with a few extra looks in the red zone, we could be looking at a high-end TE2 for 2021.
Fantasy projection
When you create projections, you have to build a narrative. What is the team in question going to look like in 2021? How do the players mesh, coaches, SOS, losses/additions, etc.? I bring this up for the Bears as there are more questions than answers.
For starters, at some point, there will be a change at QB from Andy Dalton to Justin Fields. Once that change is made, the offense completely shifts on its head to feature a big-armed, dual-threat QB.
Issue No. 2 is that Nagy, and even GM Ryan Pace, are likely to lose their jobs. They are both on the hot seat, and it’s hard to envision them surviving the 2021 season. I am already looking forward to Joe Brady coaching Fields in 2022, but that’s a topic for a different time. If Nagy were ousted, it would mean a change in playcalling. Which, believe me, would be a good thing.
When the Bears per game scoring average jumped from 19.8 to 27.7 ppg, that happened under Bill Lazor, not Nagy.
Regardless of who is under center, nothing matters unless Kmet surpasses Graham. While early, projections do have Kmet as the Bears TE you want to roster in fantasy. It’s well within reason for Kmet to record around 50-55 receptions with 550-580 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2021.
Cole Kmet’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Kmet is currently the TE23 with an ADP of 208.4 in PPR formats. Meanwhile, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Kmet has an ADP of 175.79.
Should you draft Cole Kmet in 2021 for fantasy?
When you get into the lower tiers of tight end rankings, you are only looking for athleticism, upside, and a potential path to targets. Kmet checks all three boxes. At 6’6″, 262 pounds, he runs a 4.7 40-yard dash with a 37-inch vertical. He could actually be the Week 1 starter.
If Graham misses any time, Kmet could go on a meteoric rise up the weekly rankings. He could see between 6-8 targets per game, with a few of those inside the red zone.
While I do not want Kmet as my TE1, he is a phenomenal TE2 or player you stash in deeper leagues. His value and production should continue to rise as the season progresses. There are some concerns with Chicago’s schedule and the opposing defenses’ ability against tight ends. But I would not be surprised if we are talking about Kmet as a TE1 a year from now.