Few teams in the NFL have had as impressive a turnaround in 2025 as the Chicago Bears. Before this season, they had finished in last place in the NFC North for each of the last three years. Now, they find themselves at 10-4 and firmly in the playoff race midway through December.
It won’t be easy for Chicago, as the NFC is a stacked conference this year, giving them a difficult remaining schedule. That said, they control their own destiny as things stand today. Their focus is surely not just on making the postseason for the first time since 2020, but winning their division for the first time since 2018.
What Are the Chicago Bears’ Chances of Making the Playoffs?
After Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season, the Bears have a 82.50% chance of making the playoffs, according to PFSN’s Playoff Predictor. Additionally, they now have a 37.30% chance to win the NFC North and an 12.0% chance of finishing with the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
It’s been an encouraging bounce-back season for the Bears’ offense, as the installation of Ben Johnson’s system and an improved offensive line have propelled them from 30th in PFSN’s Offense Impact in 2024 to 11th in 2025. Though their inconsistent defense ranks just 28th in Defense Impact, they lead the NFL with 27 forced turnovers and also lead the league in their +17 turnover differential.
As of this writing, the Bears rank second behind the Packers in the NFC North and hold the No. 7 seed in the NFC, making them a Wild Card team if the season were to end today. With their 10-4 record, they’ve already secured their first winning season since 2018. They’re one game ahead of the Lions for the final NFC playoff spot, and they’re half a game out of first place in the NFC North.
Bears’ Remaining 2025 Schedule
- Week 16: vs. Green Bay Packers (44.7%)
- Week 17: @ San Francisco 49ers (49.5%)
- Week 18: vs. Detroit Lions (45.6%)
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It doesn’t help the Bears’ chances that they currently face the ninth-most difficult remaining schedule this season, as all of their remaining opponents have records above the .500 mark.
Luckily for Chicago, they aren’t the only NFC playoff contender with a difficult schedule the rest of the way. The Lions and Packers are both tied for the seventh-most difficult schedule the rest of the way, and they both face more challenging competition than the Bears do, in the form of the Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos, respectively.
In Week 15, the Bears’ best-case scenario is that the Lions lose to the Rams, the Packers lose to the Broncos, the Seahawks lose to the Colts, and the Titans lose to the 49ers. This wouldn’t clinch a playoff spot for Chicago, but it would help create some separation in a loaded playoff race.
The Bears’ best bet at a Wild Card spot is staying one game ahead of the eighth-place team, which would be the Lions, as of this writing. Detroit has a higher strength of victory percentage, as do San Francisco, Green Bay, and Seattle. Should the Bears beat the Lions or 49ers but still find themselves tied with either of those teams, they would lose that tiebreaker for playoff seeding.
