Entering the 2024 NFL season, the Cincinnati Bengals were an ambiguous backfield with two talented running backs: free-agent addition Zack Moss and 2023 fifth-round pick Chase Brown. Through five weeks, both players have produced at a high level, but it’s looking more and more like Brown is the player to own. Let’s break down Brown’s trade value in fantasy leagues and whether his recent success is sustainable.
Should Fantasy Managers Buy Low or Sell High Chase Brown?
Moss was pretty clearly the lead back in Cincy through three weeks, but it seems that is starting to change. While Moss has posted top-20 numbers three times this season, Brown has been incredibly efficient and his role has been gradually increased each week.
After only receiving 14 carries and six targets through the first three weeks of the season, Brown has erupted in recent weeks. Over the last two weeks, he has 27 carries for 126 yards, and two touchdowns, plus five receptions for 20 yards and a receiving score.
As Kyle Soppe pointed out in his weekly Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em column, Brown has been better than Moss both before and after contact, putting him in a position to earn more work.
Brown has 230 rushing yards to Moss’ 211, and he has 39 receiving yards to Moss’ 19 (even though he has 16 fewer carries and three fewer targets on the season). And even though Moss has received three times as many red-zone touches, they have both scored three touchdowns.
MORE: Try PFN’s Free Fantasy Trade Analyzer
As Jacob Gibbs of CBS Sports recently pointed out, Brown’s 51.2% rush success rate currently ranks second among running backs with at least 40 rushes. Meanwhile, Moss’ 32% rush success rate ranks 25th out of 34 qualified running backs.
Among running backs with 40+ rushes, only David Montgomery has a higher rush success rate than Brown.
Chase Brown has been much more than a boom-bust RB in Year 2. He is averaging 5.6 yards per rush with a long of just 20. pic.twitter.com/B6TxQxxFk2
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 7, 2024
During the Bengals’ Week 5 contest against the Baltimore Ravens, Moss injured his ankle, so it’s possible that Brown could poised for an even bigger workload next week when Cincinnati faces the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football.
If he does well in that role, it’s possible that he will become the 1A in this backfield for the remainder of the season.
Brown is a terrific buy given his recent production and current trajectory.