Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 5: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game Including Bijan Robinson, D’Andre Swift, and Others

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help every one of you with your specific questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy football manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on X, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready. This piece is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Teams on bye in Week 5: Lions, Titans, Eagles, and Chargers

New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings (London)

• Spread: Vikings -2.5
• Total: 41
• Jets implied points: 19.3
• Vikings implied points: 21.8

Aaron Rodgers Fantasy Outlook

Catch and release.

A Jennifer Garner movie from nearly 20 years ago or the name of the Jets’ playbook?

How about both? Rodgers has the highest quick-pass rate of his career (73.4%; he never reached 70% as a Packer after becoming their full-time starter), and while that has worked when everything clicks (two top-12 finishes), it also takes very little to disturb (QB20 or worse in his other two games).

In theory, the blitz-happy Vikings should be susceptible to such a playbook, but they’ve been able to operate with controlled aggression due to positive game scripts. Your confidence in Rodgers, in my opinion, hinges on your belief in the Vikings.

Minnesota owns the third-lowest opponent passer rating this season (75.0), and after watching them suffocate Rodgers’ former employer for three quarters before letting their guard down, I’m tempted to doubt that he can be efficient enough to make this low volume (10th-slowest) offense that lacks creativity (ninth-lowest play-action rate) work.

Rodgers is an easy bench for me this week and ranks outside of my top 15 at the position.

Sam Darnold Fantasy Outlook

Another week, another multi-touchdown effort from Darnold. The efficiency is great to see, but is his fantasy stock a little too tied to something that could prove to be fleeting?

Maybe you trust the Darnold/Kevin O’Connell tandem in a Brock Purdy/Kyle Shanahan sort of way, but if not, his standing as a viable weekly option is on thin ice. He’s not a stiff, but he’s far from the type of QB that will pile up the points with his legs — any signal-caller with that profile who has more fantasy points than completions this season is going to be flagged by my regression metrics.

That’s not to take anything away from what Darnold has done through September — he’s been amazing. That said, fantasy is a game of looking forward, not back (his pace for 47 passing TDs means nothing to me), and that has me lower than the industry on him.

Darnold isn’t in the QB1 conversation this week, and I have no problem in saying that I think the month we just saw from the former third-overall pick will be his best of the season.

If you’re with me, sell him to the highest bidder and build up your roster elsewhere — if not, then you’re hanging your hat on an outlier season and praying for similar efficacy in this matchup in Week 17 when the Packers come to Minnesota.

Breece Hall Fantasy Outlook

Really? I understand that the conditions were less than ideal last week, but 10 carries for four yards? And five targets for 14 yards?

That sort of performance was supposed to be outside of the range of outcomes with an active Rodgers. On a positive note, Hall’s snap share has remained stable (exactly 71.4% in back-to-back-to-back games), and it’s clear that his quarterback has faith in him as he’s seen a downfield target in scoring position in consecutive weeks.

Hall may only have one finish better than RB12 this season, and a talented rookie in Braelon Allen is begging for more work, but I’m not yet worried. This isn’t a great matchup (Minnesota allows the second-fewest yards per running back target), but I’m still trusting Hall’s versatility much the way I am with Bijan Robinson.

This is an above-average offense that is likely to only improve with time. If I can up my Hall exposure due to a reactionary manager, I’m pulling the trigger.

Braelon Allen Fantasy Outlook

In September, the rookie turned 34 touches into 187 yards and a pair of touchdowns. As good as he looked, he’s not being rewarded with more playing time; he’s played 30-36% of New York’s offensive snaps in three straight contests.

Allen is a fantasy asset waiting to happen, I’m just not sure he will get fully unleashed any time soon. This offense runs through Hall/Garrett Wilson, and with Rodgers always milking the clock, this isn’t the type of offense that can sustain three lineup-lock skill players consistently

Outside of an injury to Hall, I’d be surprised if Allen elevated into the top 25 at the position regularly in my rankings – selling him might be an option if there is a manager in your league who thinks he has the potential to take over this backfield.

Aaron Jones Fantasy Outlook

The Vikings made no bones about it – they wanted Jones to show out against his former employer last week. He was on the field for 82.2% of Minnesota’s offensive snaps (previous season high: 61.1%) and turned 26 touches into 139 yards.

Jones is a 29-year-old back with over 1,600 touches on his NFL résumé – I remain concerned long-term. That said, he’s been a top-16 running back in three of four games (two top 10s) and should be considered a solid start in all formats, even against the seventh-best EPA defense in the league.

Ty Chandler Fantasy Outlook

The Vikings led for 58 of their 64 plays on Sunday against the Packers, creating a script that, in theory, would give Chandler a chance to produce

• Four touches
• 13 yards

Chandler has come in under 20 rushing yards in three of four games this season as the undefeated Vikings have proven more than happy to lean on Jones (41 carries and 50 touches over the past two weeks).

This offseason, I had dreams of Chandler working his way into a role that would allow him to garner Flex consideration by the time bye weeks came around. Heck, after Week 2 (10 carries for 82 yards in an upset win over the 49ers), I still believed that.

I no longer do. That doesn’t mean Chandler is an automatic cut, but you need to adjust your view of him — he’s now strictly a handcuff. There’s value in that role behind a 29-year-old Jones who missed six games last season, it’s just not one that requires our attention at the moment.

Garrett Wilson Fantasy Outlook

A learning curve was to be expected from Wilson, as the role of Rodgers’ WR1 requires plenty of timing and trust; yet, September was still underwhelming. He’s seen 8.5 targets per game, and that is a strong number, though he has yet to reach his expected PPR point total in a single game — he’s seen just one end-zone target and has seen his yards-per-route rate decline each week.

The looks should continue to be there (seven times in four weeks has a receiver seen at least eight targets against Minnesota) and you really have no choice but to trust the process, but my ceiling projection in any given week for Wilson is lower now than it was a month ago.

Allen Lazard Fantasy Outlook

Lazard continues to be a comfort blanket for Rodgers, and while that makes him valuable to the Jets, I’m not sure it means much in our game. As Mike Williams works his way close to full strength (New York told us this preseason that they were going to treat Williams’ recovery like they did Hall’s last season, ramping him up throughout September before getting him close to a full-time role as the middle of the season approached), Lazard’s role has changed, and it’s hurting his fantasy upside.

• Weeks 1-2: 11.2 aDOT
• Weeks 3-4: 5.5 aDOT

Lazard was interfered with in the end zone last week, and if he can’t score, he can’t help you (47.4% of his points this season have come on touchdowns). I’d keep him rostered if for no other reason than a connection with Rodgers gives him TD-vulture potential, but counting on anything close to weekly value is dangerous — he sits comfortably outside of my top 40 this week.

Mike Williams Fantasy Outlook

Patience gets rewarded with time, and I think this applies to those who stick with Williams through this ramp-up phase. His target count and yards-per-route-run rate have improved each week this season, and a gorgeous sideline catch on Sunday that helped extend a drive at the end of the first half is exactly the type of play that can help a physically gifted receiver like Williams earn the trust of his signal-caller.

We aren’t there yet, but it wouldn’t shock me if I ranked Williams as a player in the Flex conversation for the second half of this season.

Justin Jefferson Fantasy Outlook

It feels like ages ago that we were concerned about Jefferson’s value due to the QB play in Minnesota. Jefferson is again averaging over 2.60 yards per route run and producing well above expectations on a per-target basis.

Plenty of things change across the NFL on an annual (and weekly, for that matter) basis, but Jefferson remains inevitable. His 14-yard touchdown against the Packers was defended to perfection, and it simply didn’t matter. This offense currently ranks fifth in pass rate over expectation, something that should calm any minor fears you may have about a fully healthy Jordan Addison now or down the road when T.J. Hockenson returns.

Jordan Addison Fantasy Outlook

How you view Addison’s profile tells you a lot about who you are as a fantasy manager. Are you an optimist or a realist?

My guess is that you read that and assumed that there was a “right” or “preferred” option to that question. That, because I’m the number-crunching type, I’d encourage you to take the realist approach.

Wrong.

Fantasy leagues can be won in a variety of ways. The most certain way to lose is to be unaware of who you are as a manager. If you skew on the optimistic side of things, a player like Addison is one you should target. In his return from the ankle injury, he caught a 29-yard touchdown against the Packers (average career touchdown reception length: 29.5 yards) and was handed the ball on a jet sweep resulting in another score.

Players rarely sustain the type of scoring rate that Addison currently has (12 scores on 78 career touches), but maybe we are looking at a high-pedigree receiver who is destined to do special things. If that is what you believe, you can probably acquire his services cheaper than you’d assume.

If you’re like me and believe that regression to the mean is close to inevitable, you’re using his Week 4 stat line as an excuse to move on. No Jaire Alexander for Green Bay last week resulted in some odd coverage responsibilities, and that allowed Addison to thrive — but I do think his value is more likely to decline moving forward than grow.

The target ceiling is only so high. What if Darnold regresses? What if Jalen Nailor has earned himself more run? What if Hockenson returns in a month and walks into a six-to-eight-target role?

This is a tough matchup against a slow-moving team — Addison isn’t a top-40 receiver for me this weekend, and that could lower his value in the trade market if you elect to wait to test the waters.

Jalen Nailor Fantasy Outlook

After scoring in three straight games to open the season, Nailor saw his snap share plummet to just 21.9% against the Packers. He was able to make a big play (31 yards) on 3rd-and-long, the type of play that will keep him on the field when this team goes to three-receiver sets, but outside of that, there just isn’t room in this offense for a third pass catcher.

Read that last sentence again — that’s why I worry about Addison when Hockenson returns. It was a nice run for Nailor, and congratulations to you if you capitalized, but with Addison proving his health on Sunday, you can safely move on.

Tyler Conklin Fantasy Outlook

There are five players on this team who own more enticing per-target upside than Conklin, but none of them play tight end, and it’s important to always contextualize your starts — you’re measuring his numbers against other tight ends, not other Jets.

Conklin has nine grabs over the past two weeks after seeing just four targets through Week 2. He has pretty clearly earned Rodgers’ trust in terms of finding zones to sit down in; while that role has resulted in three games without a catch gaining more than 10 yards this season, there’s a path to a viable floor, and that holds value this time of year at a position that is as annoying as any to fill.

T.J. Hockenson Fantasy Outlook

The Pro Bowl tight end is progressing nicely in his rehab and is nearing his activation from the PUP list, something that would open up the window for him to be back in our lives as TE-needy fantasy managers.

The best working guess for Hockenson to make his season debut is Week 8 (Thursday night at Rams) or Week 9 (vs. Colts). It’s not too early to scoop him off of your waiver wire if you play in a league without an IR slot and shallow benches — with Darnold playing at an MVP level, there is room for Hockenson to return top-five value at the position, especially with potentially soft spots for the first month of his season (Weeks 8-11: LAR, IND, JAX, and TEN).

Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears

• Spread: Bears -3.5
• Total: 42
• Panthers implied points: 19.3
• Bears implied points: 22.8

Andy Dalton Fantasy Outlook

You can’t stop the Red Rifle, you can only hope to contain him. Believe it or not, Dalton is the only quarterback in the league this season with consecutive games of 25+ completions and multiple scoring strikes, a production level that has earned him finishes of eighth and 13th in his starts.

The funny part is that nothing has really changed in this offense; he’s simply better at running the designs that Bryce Young was.

Leaders in quick-pass rate (min. 50 attempts):

1. Dalton: 83.3%
2. Mayfield: 79.1%
3. Young: 75%

Everything Dalton has done over the past two weeks passes the eye test for me, but this matchup serves as a stop sign. Not a normal stop sign in a quiet neighborhood that is often rolled through without much issue – we are talking about the type that precedes a train stop and is followed by multiple hints that moving forward might not be in your best interest.

The Bears own the second-lowest passer rating against this season (69.0), a number that is the result of their ability to shut down those quick/short passes (league-low 66.6 opponent passer rating on balls thrown less than 10 yards downfield).

Both things can be true – I don’t think Dalton holding weekly value is a fluke, and I don’t want any piece of him this week (currently my QB22). The Bears’ defense is one I’d rather not mess with, and if their offense continues to trend in the right direction, teams facing Chicago could have both a quality and quantity problem.

Caleb Williams Fantasy Outlook

Not all rookies develop in the same manner or on the same timeline, that much we know. It’s true for every position and every sport – from the supporting cast to the coaching staff to generalized comfort with the speed of the game, there are a lot of moving pieces that these young kids have to deal with, so it tracks that growth will happen at varying rates.

While Jayden Daniels thrives in Washington, Williams has made a few tweaks over the past two weeks that have my interest as a dynasty manager:

Williams’ first two starts:

• Ten carries for 59 yards
• 56.1% completion

Williams’ last two starts:

• Six carries for 20 yards
• 66.7% completion

He completed just five of his 19 passes when pressured in his first two starts (26.3%), a rate that he’s improved to 53.3% (eight out of 15) since. The growth is great to see from the first overall pick, but it’s not nearly enough to put him on redraft radars right now (three finishes outside of the top 20).

That said, I’m very much holding all of my dynasty shares … if not actively trying to up my exposure.

Chuba Hubbard Fantasy Outlook

Dalton gets the headlines because of the position he plays, but how about Hubbard?

Consecutive games with 100+ rushing yards and 4+ catches since 2023:

• Christian McCaffrey: Weeks 15-16, 2023
• Hubbard: Weeks 3-4, 2024

The Panthers gave Hubbard four carries inside the 10-yard line on their first drive last weekend against the Bengals, a nod to their commitment to maintaining balance, even while Dalton plays well.

Hubbard was on the field for a season-high 72.9% of the snaps last week and, like it or not, has one of the top 10 roles in the NFL. That’s not to say he’s a top-10 fantasy running back, but with a rock-solid touch count in hand, he’s a top-20 option until proven otherwise.

D’Andre Swift Fantasy Outlook

After reports surfaced last week that the franchise wanted to get a better look at Roschon Johnson, Swift posted the best game of his season with ease. His 36-yard score in the third quarter alone accounted for more rushing yards than he had in any of his first three games this season. And when all was said and done, Swift finished last week as the third-highest scorer at the position, his first weekly rank better than RB30 as a Bear.

Does it stick?

Long term, I’m cautiously optimistic. The offensive line can’t play worse than it has through the first month, and Williams is already showing signs of growth, which could result in something close to a respectable passing attack.

If the environment around Swift can improve, I have no doubt that he can post RB2 numbers on a consistent basis. He gets a great chance to carry over the momentum gained from last week on Sunday against a Panthers defense that has allowed the fourth-most yards per carry before contact to opposing running backs this season.

The question has never been about what Swift can do in space — it’s been about finding that space. For Week 5 at least, I don’t have major concerns on that front.

Roschon Johnson Fantasy Outlook

Rumors swirled ahead of Week 4 that Johnson would be given the chance to impress against the Rams, and while he wasn’t featured, he did cash in a first-half goal-line carry. Sadly, for his 2024 prospects, Swift looked good and likely did enough to hold onto the lead role for the foreseeable future.

Johnson didn’t earn a target last week, but the passing game is his path to fringe PPR Flex value. The team has been impressed with his pass-blocking savvy since they drafted him, and those are the situations in which he’ll likely be on the field. If he can continue to succeed in short-yardage spots and be efficient as a route runner, there’s a world in which he’s on Flex radars in the second half of this season, but that time is not here yet.

At the very least, Johnson is a short-term stash. The Bears get the Panthers this week, the Jags in Week 6, and the Commanders/Cardinals following the Week 7 bye. That’s a strong stretch that he is one injury away from getting exposure to.

Diontae Johnson Fantasy Outlook

Is it possible that Johnson’s value is higher now than it ever was in Pittsburgh?

I’m not going that far yet, but he had 10 targets by halftime last week and has posted top-10 fantasy finishes in both of Dalton’s starts. His role is a little different than in years past (he ranks eighth in the league in air yards through four weeks), and that introduces a range of outcomes that we haven’t seen from him in the past, but as long as Dalton is playing at an above-average level, he owns a safe profile that you can feel good about.

I’d love to be more bullish on Johnson this week, but players like Zay Flowers (at CIN), Amari Cooper (at WAS), and Christian Kirk (vs. IND) are all in good spots; I couldn’t get him inside of my top 20.

Adam Thielen Fantasy Outlook

The veteran receiver was placed on injured reserve ahead of Week 4’s game, meaning that he will miss at least three more games and can be released from fantasy rosters that don’t have an available injured reserve slot and/or don’t have the luxury to wait on the health of a 34-year-old for a team that could be 1-6 when he is first eligible to return.

Xavier Legette Fantasy Outlook

With Thielen sidelined, Legette was targeted on Carolina’s fifth play from scrimmage (12-yard reception) and he led Panthers receivers last week with an 85.7% snap share. The role he filled on Sunday was that of an underneath option (9.4 aDOT compared to Johnson’s 15.0) against the Bengals, something that is good for his long-term outlook.

That said, I’m not tempting fate and plugging him in this week. There are plenty of other options at the position who offer a higher-ceiling case than Legette against a Bears defense that has allowed a score on just 1.5% of receiver targets, the fourth-lowest rate in the league.

Carolina’s rookie is a DFS-only play for the time being — though he should be universally rostered given his role and the upside that Dalton has infused this offense with.

DJ Moore Fantasy Outlook

Williams missed him on an early end-zone target but eventually paid it off with a bullet in the back of the end zone, the duo’s first connection for a score this season. The ceiling hasn’t been there due to the slow start to his quarterback’s career, but with four weekly finishes between WR23-WR41, he’s been viable enough to Flex in most situations.

If you have Moore, you’re playing him for a reasonable floor. It’s not exciting, but most rosters can benefit from a player like Moore — and if you’re bullish on Williams’ development, the stock of his clear WR1 should come along for the ride.

Keenan Allen Fantasy Outlook

Allen returned from a two-game absence after missing two games with a heel injury and managed just 4.9 PPR points in the win over the Rams. He wasn’t far from a much more successful day at the offense, as he drew a passer interference penalty in the end zone, but alas, Allen has yet to return a usable week this season.

I have both he and Odunze ranked just outside of my top 35 at the position — I have hopes that one will separate from the other with time, but I’m not overly confident in Flexing either just yet, even in a plus-matchup.

Rome Odunze Fantasy Outlook

The role simply isn’t there for Odunze right now. The rookie has failed to produce 10 expected PPR points in three of four games this season, and with a 21.5-yard aDOT over the past two weeks, he’s settling into a one-trick pony role in an offense that is having trouble supporting anyone with consistency.

Dynasty managers can use the growth shown by Williams to fuel their long-term outlook for Odunze, but redraft managers need to be real with themselves and admit that this talented rookie isn’t close to lineup consideration right now.

Cole Kmet Fantasy Outlook

Kmet has been held under 35 receiving yards in three of four games this season. Yet, we might be looking at a best-case scenario from a profile standpoint — he’s on a career pace in both aDOT and catch rate, two stats that typically work in opposite directions.

There’s no such thing as a bad play at tight end these days, but there are better options than others; that’s the case here if you’re streaming the position.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals

• Spread: Ravens -2.5
• Total: 51
• Ravens implied points: 26.8
• Bengals implied points: 24.3

Lamar Jackson Fantasy Outlook

Jackson has thrown a total of 33 passes over the past two weeks (both wins) after averaging 37.5 attempts per game through the first two games of the season (both losses). But with his ability to gash defenses on the ground in this Todd Monken offense, he’s been able to finish as a top-10 fantasy QB in all four weeks this season with three top-five finishes to his name.

Longest QB streaks since 2023 with a 15+ yard rush

• Jackson: Weeks 14-17, 2023
• Kyler Murray: Week 18, 2023 – Week 3, 2024
• Jackson: Weeks 1-4, 2024

The reigning MVP has cleared 22 fantasy points in four of his past five games against the Bengals (50+ rushing yards in each of those contests) and has multiple passing scores in five of his past seven against the divisional rival.

Jackson is my top overall quarterback this week and will be heavily rostered across my DFS portfolio for his elite floor.

Joe Burrow Fantasy Outlook

Over the past three weeks, Burrow has thrown multiple touchdown passes, recorded a triple-digit passer rating, and led his Bengals to at least 25 points in all three games. The stinker to open the season against the Patriots (164 passing yards with no touchdowns) is a distant memory at this point, as Joe Cool seems to have found his rhythm, potentially saving Cincinnati’s season in the process.

This matchup, however, is a little different than the cupcakes he has faced in each of the past two weeks (Commanders and Panthers), two matchups that allowed him to earn an A- and B by our tough QB+ grading scale. The Ravens own the ninth-highest non-blitz sack rate this season, positioning them to put Burrow in a tough spot given that his quick-throw rate is pacing for the lowest of his career.

This Cincinnati offense can be dangerous, but the down-the-field routes often take time to develop, and that’s not a luxury I’m projecting Burrow to have on Sunday. He has failed to hit 15.4 fantasy points in each of his past three regular season games against Baltimore, averaging a borderline pathetic 5.4 yards per pass attempt across those contests.

Sandwiched between two early season matchups with the Ravens are games against the Giants, Browns, Eagles, and Raiders – you’re going to get plenty of usage out of Burrow in the coming month, but I’d sit him down this week if you have the opportunity to play a Baker Mayfield or maybe even a Geno Smith instead.

Derrick Henry Fantasy Outlook

Crown this man.

Henry took his first carry last week 87 yards to the house, the longest in Ravens franchise history, and has worked past any learning curve that was to be expected with switching teams.

RB finishes by week:

• Week 1: RB29
• Week 2: RB14
• Week 3: RB3
• Week 4: RB1

The idea was that adding Henry would give Baltimore a better chance to experience postseason success as his big frame gets more difficult to deal with as the temperature drops. As it turns out, 6’2” and 250 pounds is pretty tough to tackle regardless of the weather.

There will be the occasional game where the script works away from Henry (though you should take note of his three receptions last week), but that risk is worth the reward that you’ll experience far more often.

Zack Moss Fantasy Outlook

Moss was pretty clearly the lead back in Cincy through three weeks, but Week 4 was enough to cast doubt in my mind and drop him outside of my top 20 at the position despite him posting top-20 numbers three times this season (he bailed you out with a one-yard touchdown reception last week).

We saw Joe Mixon earn five targets in both games as a member of this offense against the Ravens last season, and that might well be the path for Moss to provide value for you this week (nine catches on 10 targets over the past two weeks with a 12+ yard reception in all four games).

Moss has out-carried Chase Brown 12-4 in the red zone this season, giving him access to the high-leverage touches that we chase.

Chase Brown Fantasy Outlook

Brown started the second half last week and racked up 37 scrimmage yards on the first drive, one that he capped with a touchdown. We are still looking at small samples, but Brown has been better than Moss this season both before and after contact, putting him in a position to earn more work with time.

I’m not comfortable in Flexing Brown just yet, but he is a strong stash.

Zay Flowers Fantasy Outlook

This passing game as a whole hasn’t seen much volume lately with the Ravens cruising, and that has left Flowers’ manager wanting more.

Way more.

The only receiver in this offense that I believe is worthy of a roster spot has turned in consecutive weekly finishes outside of the top 60, a lack of production that has all but doomed your matchups (trust me, I’m well aware). Flowers has run a total of 33 routes across those two games, well down from the 42.5 he averaged per game through the first two weeks.

Sadly, this is part of the math with Henry. With a bell-cow back like that who is capable of dominating the game, struggles in the volume department are a part of doing business. Hang in there – we are still talking about the unquestioned top target in an elite offense in a prime spot.

I have no real concerns about going back to Flowers as a WR2 and would consider him a strong buy for those looking to get aggressive in the trade market.

Rashod Bateman Fantasy Outlook

The Bateman hype this preseason always felt like a trap, and with his yardage total declining each week this season (53-40-28-23), his time as a flier at the end of your bench has come to an end. This offense is struggling to provide any pass catchers with weekly value, and Bateman is pretty clearly the fourth option at best.

His 14.9 aDOT would seemingly point to some upside. I’m not buying it. Jackson’s average depth of throw sits at a career-low 6.6 yards, something that appears destined to be sustained as Todd Monken works in his quick-hitting offense for a second season. Bateman holds a role for the Ravens – it just doesn’t translate in the least for us.

Ja’Marr Chase Fantasy Outlook

The struggles of this defense (26+ points allowed in three straight games) aren’t great for the city of Cincinnati, but it has resulted in Burrow ranking behind only Geno Smith in completions this season (77); if that continues, Chase is poised for a strong season.

Chase scored from 63 yards out last week on his first catch of the game, and it was a thing of beauty that saw him break three tackles after streaking across the middle of the field. Was it more of a bad Panthers thing than a positive Chase one? Maybe, but he and Burrow connected on a deep timing route, and that is what we like to see.

I mentioned Burrow’s struggles in recent meetings with the Ravens and him being 4-of-17 when throwing deep (23.5%), two factors that limit the upside case of his WR1, but if you fall in line with me and believe this is going to be a passing script for the home team, Chase is set to produce top-10 numbers at the position.

Tee Higgins Fantasy Outlook

Higgins earned 10 targets last week in the win over the Panthers but was only able to muster 12 PPR fantasy points, an underwhelming performance given the volume (WR37 for the week).

The involvement was strong from the jump (he was responsible for five of Burrow’s first seven completions), and that’s enough to qualify for my top 30. However, the fact that he tailed off in such a good matchup is certainly concerning. We are only two games into his season, but checking in 37.1% below point expectation while this passing game is clicking is something I’m certainly keeping an eye on.

If you want to see a player who has been hit or miss in recent matchups, this is your guy. In his last three healthy games against the Ravens:

• Week 2, 2023: 36 routes, eight catches, 89 yards, two TDs
• Week 18, 2022: 43 routes, one catch, seven yards
• Week 16, 2021: 44 routes, 12 catches, 149 yards, two TDs

If you’re going to plug in Higgins ahead of players with similar upside cases like Brian Thomas Jr. (vs. IND) or Xavier Worthy (vs. NO), you have to do so with eyes wide open when it comes to the full profile. I’m playing him where I have him and feel that my starting lineup offers a high floor.

Andrei Iosivas Fantasy Outlook

The artist known as “Yoshi” was able to hold value early in the season due to a role left vacant by Higgins and the ability to earn looks in scoring positions. With Burrow playing well, a third receiver could hold value in this offense, but I’m not sold on this offense being designed to support an option playing alongside Chase and Higgins.

In Week 4, Iosivas was on the field for a season-low 74.2% of snaps and earned just a single target on 25 routes (Weeks 1-3: one target for every six routes). With bye weeks now upon us, you can safely move on from the pride of Princeton, earmarking him as a potential add should an injury occur ahead of him on this depth chart.

Mark Andrews Fantasy Outlook

Andrews had more highlighted blocks last week than targets. And the one look he did get — he promptly put on the turf.

With one top-25 finish at the position and a downward-trending route rate, Andrews has put you in the same position that Kyle Pitts managers find themselves.

You’re in jail.

You could drop Andrews, but what are you gaining in doing so? You’re unlikely to get a résumé of production or exposure to a strong offense — Andrews obviously has both.

If you want to look at Zach Ertz or Tyler Conklin as band-aids until (hopefully) the Ravens lean into Andrews, I have no problem with that. I’m just not yet comfortable in cutting ties with him to make that happen.

Isaiah Likely Fantasy Outlook

That TE1 finish in the season opener feels like it came a decade ago. The athletic profile remains, and the potency of Baltimore’s offense isn’t a question, but the tight end position has been an afterthought.

Likely has out-snapped Andrews in each of the past two weeks after not doing so in the first two games, but he hasn’t finished a week as a top-20 producer at the position since he stole all of our FAAB money a month ago.

I have Likely ranked over Andrews for the rest of the season. I believe in this situation from a process standpoint, but we are one week away from him falling outside of my starting tier. Likely is my TE12 this week, and that’s more damning of the position than it is a reflection of current optimism on my end.

Mike Gesicki Fantasy Outlook

If you don’t play in a full-PPR league, you outscored Gesicki last week by sitting on your couch (his only target resulted in a nine-yard loss). As hard as that performance was to swallow (and it was; trust me, I have a few shares), don’t let it blind you to the fact that Gesicki was a top-12 producer at the position in each of the two weeks before.

Don’t get me wrong, this profile is thin. There were two alpha receivers well ahead of Gesicki in the target hierarchy of Cincinnati’s offense, not to mention a pair of backs and a developing Iosivas. That said, we’re looking at a player who is almost never used for blocking and plays in an offense that we trust.

That’s enough. Heck, that’s plenty at the TE position.

Geiscki lives in the TE12-15 range for me, which is where he lands, even in a spot where Cincinnati’s offensive expectations are lower than normal.

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots

• Spread: Dolphins -1
• Total: 36.5
• Dolphins implied points: 18.8
• Patriots implied points: 17.8

Tyler Huntley Fantasy Outlook

Huntley and this entire Dolphins offense was abysmal on Monday night, so much so that my social media feeds were spammed with, “Thank God there’s a second game” posts. They weren’t wrong – Miami’s offense was just as tough a watch last week as they were the week before, and I’m not sure what that will change for the foreseeable future.

On the bright side, Huntley rushed for a score and directed 61.9% of his passes to Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle. Sure, those passes did almost nothing of significance, but him concentrating his looks on his primary playmakers, along with some above-average mobility, is enough for me to take his side this weekend when I inevitably get a handful of Superflex questions regarding him against a low-end WR2 with a five-to-seven-target projection.

It’s ugly in Miami these days, and this is the game I am least looking forward to watching. Check back for our picks and predictions column – I’ll be diving into the props to find some excuse to keep an eye on this AFC East pillow fight.

Jacoby Brissett Fantasy Outlook

Brissett ran for 32 yards in the upset win over the Bengals to open the season, giving Superflex managers some hope that he could backdoor his way into some fantasy points.

It was a mirage.

Brissett has just nine rushing yards to his name since that “explosion,” and considering that he is averaging just 5.3 yards per pass attempt in an offense that would rather not throw the ball, there’s little reason to be optimistic.

His peak performance this season is QB24, a rating he could surpass this week, but not by much. Which QB will lead this game in fantasy points is potentially an interesting wager to make with your friends.

I’m workshopping ideas here. I still have a handful of days to find a reason to devote a screen to this game.

De’Von Achane Fantasy Outlook

Achane hasn’t been a top-30 running back in either game played since Tua Tagovailoa’s injury, and I wish I could bend the numbers in such a way that would make you feel good about a rebound.

I can’t.

Well, I probably could, but that’s not the point. It would require overlooking certain metrics at an irresponsible level, and that’s not helping anyone. The fact of the matter is that 133.3% of Achane’s rushing yards last week against the Titans came after contact, and that’s a tough way to make a living, no matter how talented the player is.

He remains my favorite back in Miami and will likely get plenty of opportunities in a competitive game with the Dolphins knowing that they can’t afford to rely on the pass game. Achane is in a scoring position with every touch he gets, so while he has fallen outside of my top 10, he remains a starter in all formats.

Raheem Mostert Fantasy Outlook

A chest injury has kept Mostert out for three consecutive games, though he was listed as questionable for the majority of last week. His role as a touchdown threat is predicated on this team being in scoring positions, and that’s not something I’m counting on happening at a high level for the next month.

Mostert will be active for Week 5 and I’ll be monitoring his usage. This knocks some of the shine off of Jaylen Wright, though, at the moment, this is an offense I don’t want to be counting on outside of the very top talents.

Mostert remains a roster worthy player simply because he’s shown the ability to find paydirt when given the opportunity and that holds value this time of year, but you shouldn’t be counting on him on any sort of regular basis until Tua Tagovailoa is back under center.

Rhamondre Stevenson Fantasy Outlook

The game script is going to work away from the Patriots more often than not, but this weekend looks like the exception. That said, are we sure that Stevenson is going to keep getting chances?

He’s put the ball on the ground in all four games this season (two lost) and averaged under four yards per carry in both games against the ‘Fins last season, with none of his 30 touches gaining more than 12 yards.

If you’re in a bind, Flexing Stevenson is reasonable, though I’m not doing it with the utmost confidence at the team has already announced that he won’t be starting. Avoiding this offense is the move that winning teams in 2024 are making.

Antonio Gibson Fantasy Outlook

A 50-yard reception last week made Gibson New England’s top receiver, and it was his second straight game with three receptions, but the touch count has yet to be expanded at a high enough level to put him on Flex radars (36 touches this season).

Due to Stevenson’s ball security issues, Gibson has a path to a lead role and thus needs to be rostered, though reasonable minds can disagree on if that title is worth anything in standard-sized leagues.

With Gibson set to start this week, he’s a risky RB2.The Patriots made it clear that Stevenson will still be a part of the gameplan and that means we are likely looking at a split backfield that has struggled to return a single viable asset this season.

Tyreek Hill Fantasy Outlook

Hill spoke about a “crazy game plan” ahead of Huntley’s first start. At some level, he was right — he had more targets (four) than receiving yards (three) in the first half, something most fantasy managers would label as “crazy.”

He led the team in targets during Monday night’s disaster, so that’s a plus. He also had a pair of deep targets that didn’t miss by much (one underthrown and another overthrown by Huntley).

In theory, those deep shots have a potential to hit, and that keeps Hill inside of my top 30 at the position, but the risk outweighs the reward if you have nice depth at the position (Hill hasn’t been a top-45 receiver in a game since posting a WR3 finish in Week 1).

This week, Hill checks in as WR24 for me, just behind Christian Kirk and Diontae Johnson, two receivers trending in a much more positive direction.

Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Outlook

Waddle has one top-30 finish this season, and with Miami looking for answers under center, why would we expect that to change until we see tangible proof?

If the quality of targets is going to be an issue, we need single-play potential to even be remotely interested in this offense.

Week 4 target depth:

• Hill: 18.1 yards
• Waddle: 5.7 yards

On the bright side, the Patriots have allowed the third most short completions in the league this season (77), and Huntley completed 12 of 15 of those passes last week. On the less bright side, it’s going to take consistency from the backup QB to justify playing Waddle — that is not something we saw on Monday night.

Waddle is my WR40 this week, ranking behind options like Dontayvion Wicks and Jerry Jeudy.

Ja’Lynn Polk Fantasy Outlook

The rookie saw seven targets last week after totaling just six through his first three games and had a 21-yard reception, his first play gaining more than seven yards. He has NFL ability, and I think we will see more of that once Drake Maye takes over, but in redraft leagues, there’s no reason to bet on this Patriots offense.

Against the 49ers last Sunday, 29.8% of their passing yards came on a single play. This offense has as little week-to-week upside as any in the league and is an avoid at all costs.

Jonnu Smith Fantasy Outlook

If you thought the outlook on Miami’s receivers was bleak, why go to their tight end?

I suppose the interest in Smith is an athletic profile and the general approach of assuming that a shallow target could be featured in an inept offense like this. But you’re really overthinking things if you’re still landing on Smith (one top-30 finish this season).

Hunter Henry Fantasy Outlook

Henry had 109 of his 148 yards (73.6%) this season in Week 2’s loss to the Seahawks. My guess is that there are some of you out there who added him after that standout performance and have spent the past two weeks (both TE38 finishes in a 32-team NFL) chasing something similar.

That hurts. It does, however, serve as a learning experience.

This is going to happen to more than a few tight ends this season. In an offense like this (16 points scored over the past two weeks), any pass catcher needs to earn targets in an elite way, and there simply isn’t anyone on New England’s roster capable of doing that.

You can move on from Henry as long as Brissett is under center. If (when) Drake Maye takes over, we can have a different discussion, but even then, I’m more likely to be late to the party than early.

Cleveland Browns vs. Washington Commanders

• Spread: Commanders -3
• Total: 44
• Browns implied points: 20.5
• Commanders implied points: 23.5

Deshaun Watson Fantasy Outlook

In Week 3, Watson recorded his first multi-touchdown effort of the season (vs. Giants), and last week, he completed a season-high 75% of his passes (Weeks 1-3: 57.8%) to go along with a season-best eight carries (at Raiders).

These minor baby steps are encouraging for Superflex managers who I think can get away with starting him for a third consecutive week. The Commanders have allowed a league-high 123.3 opponent passer rating this season, a mark that is nearly 50 points ahead of Watson’s average this season.

If an 82-yard touchdown didn’t come off the board last week, I think there might be a little more talk of Watson as a threat to post a top-12 finish this week. Heck, if Amari Cooper doesn’t turn a chunk play into an interception, that might be the case. There are a handful of QBs on this slate who I think post their best fantasy performance of the season this week (Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence), and Watson is certainly a part of that list.

Jayden Daniels Fantasy Outlook

What more is there to be said? I guess you could nitpick that he didn’t get credit for the 47-yard play (pass interference) that set up his rushing touchdown last week or that his interception was an unforced error, but the superlatives have been overwhelming through the first four weeks of Daniels’ career.

Highest comp pct in a 4-game span in a season since the merger
(min 100 attempts)

2024 Jayden Daniels* 82.1%
2008 Peyton Manning^ 81.8%
2007 Tom Brady^ 79.2%

*first 4 NFL starts
^won MVP this season

This is… INSANE pic.twitter.com/k2BD1SZtkt

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 29, 2024

Daniels is a top-five quarterback for me this week and, if he comes through on that optimism, he’ll officially be locked into the “matchup-proof” tier. The Browns have blitzed at the fourth-highest rate this season, something that figures to test if the kid’s ability to make quick and efficient reads is real.

We’ve seen nothing to suggest that it’s not.

Rostering Daniels has one drawback – you now need to deal with the pressure of making the most of your draft-day steal. Opportunities like this don’t come around often.

Jerome Ford Fantasy Outlook

I don’t consider myself a big fan of Ford, but his role is safe and this matchup is as good as it gets. Cleveland fed its led back the ball on three of its first four plays last week and has kept him on the field for 80% of the snaps over the past two weeks.

The per-touch efficiency can be questioned, but there is no denying his ability to rack up the touches. Whether they are handoffs, scripted passes, or garbage-time receptions, Ford’s role is safe no matter the score.

A 35-yard carry last week gave Ford a 20+ yard touch in three consecutive games. With a wide range of skills for an offense that needs all the help it can get, Ford is a strong RB2 this week and, as you’ll see in his receivers, deserves your DFS attention, especially if you think the Browns will look to keep Daniels on the sideline.

Brian Robinson Jr. Fantasy Outlook

Jeremy McNichols racked up some production in the role vacated by Austin Ekeler, but Robinson has clearly been tabbed as the leader of this backfield, and that role is increasing in scoring equity with each passing week.

Robinson had a wildcat snap on the first drive last week, something that shows the willingness of his team to be creative. Their lead back capped that drive with a touchdown (he’s scored in three of four games) and has done nothing but post top-25 finishes (two top-15 weeks).

We saw not one, not two, not three, not four, but five different Raiders have a 10+ yard rush against these Browns a week ago – Robinson is flirting with RB1 status this week (though you need to watch his status on Sunday morning to confirm he is good to go) and as long as this offense can produce at a top 10 level.

Austin Ekeler Fantasy Outlook

The veteran touched the ball in three of Washington’s first four plays from scrimmage in their Week 3 upset win in Cincinnati. Unfortunately, a concussion later in that game resulted in Ekeler missing Week 4.

Traditionally, players have been able to return to action after missing a game due to concussion protocol. But not all head injuries are created equally, and the fact that he was ruled out on Wednesday worries me a bit when it comes to his Week 5 status.

Ekeler looked as good as he has in over a calendar year to open that Bengals game (57 yards and a touchdown on five touches) and is seemingly closer to carving out a viable role than I gave him credit for entering the season.

That said, I’m operating as if this is still a 2:1 backfield in Robinson’s favor when it comes to touches projections, and that’s assuming reasonable health for Ekeler. The future fantasy Hall of Famer certainly should be rostered, but even if he clears protocol in this sub-optimal matchup, I’m not ranking Ekeler as a legitimate Flex option.

Amari Cooper Fantasy Outlook

Cleveland’s top target earner has seen 37 looks this season, and yet he has cleared 35 yards just once (7-86-2 against the Giants in Week 3). It hasn’t been for a lack of trying – Cooper had an 82-yard touchdown wiped off the board due to a holding penalty and turned a chunk play into an interception after a pass was too accurate for him to come down with.

For the season, Cooper ranks sixth in air yards and seems to be on the precipice of a big performance. Could there be a better spot to come through?

WR1s against Washington:

• Week 1: Mike Evans (23.1 FP, WR6)
• Week 2: Malik Nabers (28.7 FP, WR3)
• Week 3: Ja’Marr Chase (29.8 FP, WR2)
• Week 4: Marvin Harrison Jr. (15.5 FP, WR26)

What is more likely: the Browns offense breaks out or the Washington defense finally steps up? Cooper’s profile isn’t flawless nor is it bulletproof, but I’d rather take my chances on exploiting this matchup than rolling the dice on Tyreek Hill against the Patriots or Tee Higgins against the Ravens.

Jerry Jeudy Fantasy Outlook

My guess is that you’re unaware of Jeudy’s involvement this season.

Players 25 or younger with 6+ targets in all four weeks:

• CeeDee Lamb
• Justin Jefferson
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Nico Collins
• Garrett Wilson
• Malik Nabers
• Jeudy

That’s not a bad list to be a part of. I understand that the production hasn’t been close to the elites on this list, but he’s been worse than WR31 just once this season, and that means he’s been a viable option consistently.

In September, 12.2% of receiver targets against the Commanders resulted in touchdowns (NFL average: 4.8%), making this a matchup to target with the Browns ranking fourth in pass rate over expectation thus far.

Watson’s inconsistencies under center are a concern and why I have receivers like Khalil Shakir and Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranked a touch higher than Jeudy this week, but there is some Flex appeal in this profile, and Jeduy’s name will be clicked with regularity by me in DFS this weekend.

Terry McLaurin Fantasy Outlook

For the first time since Weeks 14-15 in 2019, McLaurin has scored in consecutive weeks. He’s been a top-20 receiver in both of those games, nice growth for a player that wasn’t a top-35 option in either of the first two weeks and something I like to sustain moving forward.

Through four weeks, McLaurin is already halfway to matching his end-zone target count from last season and is producing 19.7% over expectation (2023: 4% below expectation).

Maybe the league will adjust to Daniels with time and slow down what is a historic pace, but until then, you’ll be able to find McLaurin inside of my top 20 consistently.

Luke McCaffrey Fantasy Outlook

I want to believe in McCaffrey, especially given how efficient this offense currently is, but I completely forgot he was playing for three quarters in a game where Washington was marching up and down the field.

Olamide Zaccheaus led the Commanders in receiving yards last week while Noah Brown set a season-high in targets. After trading away Jahan Dotson, my theory on elevating McCaffrey in my ranks was that a rookie QB would be consuming the comfort targets that a player like him projected for.

I’m not sure I was wrong on McCaffrey’s evaluation — Daniels is simply too good to be limited in the ways that I assumed. McCaffrey doesn’t need to be held onto.

David Njoku Fantasy Outlook

Njoku entered this season coming off of the best year of his career (81-882-6) and caught four of five targets in the season opener, but an ankle injury has sidelined the 28-year-old for three straight games, making this the fourth time in six seasons in which he’s logged at least three DNPs.

There is plenty of time, but you’d have to think that there is a decent chance that Njoku suits up this weekend. A four-game absence would have made an IR stint the more savvy move by the franchise to open up a roster spot.

While this wasn’t exactly potent in September, a matchup with the Commanders has a way of masking inefficiencies. There’s a good chance, due to the lack of depth at the position, Njoku will rank as a starter for me whenever he returns, which will certainly be the case if he’s cleared ahead of Sunday.

Zach Ertz Fantasy Outlook

The veteran has caught 15 of 16 targets this season, a level of efficiency that puts Ertz on the streaming radar, even if he’s cleared 40 receiving yards just once this season.

Ertz was the TE18 last week, his worst ranking of the season (Weeks 1-3: TE11 average) and something that is at risk of happening with Daniels spreading the ball around (nine Commanders saw a target in Week 4’s demolition of the Cardinals).

For me, Ertz is who I had hoped Dalton Schultz would be in Houston — a reliable chain mover in a top-quarter-of-the-league offense. Ertz is not a must-roster player, and he’s my TE15 this week, but at a position that lacks stability, there’s a level of appeal in a player like him.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• Spread: Jaguars -2.5
• Total: 46
• Colts implied points: 21.8
• Jaguars implied points: 24.3

Anthony Richardson Fantasy Outlook

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Richardson’s rookie season was derailed by a pair of injuries, and on Sunday, we saw more of the same. Richardson left the game early due to an injury, came back to run a red-zone RPO, and was promptly banged up again, an injury that ended his afternoon.

Two of Richardson’s three completions went to Michael Pittman Jr., and that was encouraging for a player who we need to see develop as a passer (involving your top target is a good place to start). Still, questions will continue to swirl about how Richardson is used.

Only time will tell on that front, but this is a rough start to a career for a player who we thought had LeBron James potential for staying healthy, by way of an overwhelming frame. Richardson will remain on fantasy radars for as long as he is healthy, but the range of outcomes is not for the weak of heart.

Saturday Update: The Colts downgraded Richardson to doubtful. Joe Flacco is now set to make his first start of the season on Sunday.

Joe Flacco Fantasy Outlook

As of now, Richardson’s Week 5 status is unknown. There is general optimism surrounding him, and that is how I have it ranked, but adding Flacco for free now isn’t a bad idea – he’d rank higher than Richardson in this matchup.

Flacco has thrown multiple touchdown passes in each of his past six appearances, a stretch in which his offense picked up 7.8 yards per pass. Well, that happens to mesh well against a Jaguars defense that is allowing the fourth-most yards per attempt this season (8.0).

I like this matchup more for Flacco because of how Jacksonville defends – the Jags’ 17.5% blitz rank is the second lowest in the league through four weeks (league average: 25.9%). I like Richardson’s athleticism when he is pushed to extend plays and his receivers can work open off-script, but I prefer Flacco’s IQ in spots like this where he figures to be sitting unencumbered in the pocket.

I’d elevate Flacco to QB13 this week if we get news that he will get the nod, ranking in the same tier as Joe Burrow (vs. Ravens) and Geno Smith (vs. Giants).

Trevor Lawrence Fantasy Outlook

These days, it’s rare to see the Jaguars broken down (be it on TV, a podcast, or otherwise) without mention of Lawrence’s losing streak. Yes, things have been a mess, there’s no avoiding that, but we live in a fantasy world where every week is the most important of the season, regardless of what the NFL standings say.

Lawrence completed at least two-thirds of his passes with multiple scores in both games against these Colts a season ago, a level of success that I think is well within the range of outcomes for Sunday. The numbers aren’t pretty this season (53.3% completion percentage with under 180 passing yards in three of four games), but he’s missed on a handful of bombs that could have been plays worth 5-7 fantasy points.

Those misses are, of course, on Lawrence, but we have seen him connect on those attempts in the past; against the seventh-worst defense in terms of yards per pass, we could get a spike week for the NFL’s QB3 in terms of average depth of throw.

Lawrence is hovering around QB15 in my rankings. He isn’t someone I’d plug in over your current option in season-long formats, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if his name is highlighted on some big-money DFS builds.

Trey Sermon Fantasy Outlook

Last season, Taylor’s best game in terms of catches, targets, and receiving yards came against the Jaguars. He’s one of the very best in the game, and I like him as a top-10 running back this week, regardless of who starts at quarterback.

He has both a 20-yard rush and at least 20 receiving yards in each of the past three weeks – a role that is now in the hands of Trey Sermon with Taylor officially being ruled out on Friday.

The 25-year-old reserve only has 10 touches on his 2024 regular (31 yards and a touchdown), but should be penciled in for 15-ish this week as the clear go-to back in a game that figures to be competitive.

We saw Sermon pick up 88 yards and 17 carries against the Steelers when pressed into an extended role late last season and somewhere in the range of 8-10 PPR points is a logical projection in this spot.

That slots him outside of my top-20 at the position, but given the carnage at the position, he’s a viable option that will get opportunities for managers searching for Flex help this weekend.

Tyler Goodson Fantasy Outlook

Talk out of Indy is that Goodson will see work as part of a committee in an effort to patchwork together the Taylor role. The Iowa product has yet to be handed the ball this season (13 career carries for 87 yards), but he was productive during his collegiate career and showed reasonable levels of versatility for the system the Hawkeyes ran.

He’s not a must add, but with Taylor at risk of missing significant time, Goodson is the type of player worth stashing if you have the space. The Colts don’t have their bye until Week 14 and with a favorable run of games in the short-term (Titans-Dolphins in Weeks 6-7), it’s very possible that this team takes a cautious approach with their All-Pro RB.

Goodson is a high-risk flex this week without much clarity on his role, but there is certainly the potential for his ranking to improve (my RB40 this week) by this time next week.

Travis Etienne Jr. Fantasy Outlook

Was he really hurt last week?

The broadcast credited a shoulder injury for Etienne’s lack of usage, but he seemed to be deprioritized from the jump, and that’s a terrifying thought in an offense that is struggling to create advantageous situations.

Etienne was drafted as the RB8 this summer but has yet to finish a single week this season better than RB19. He’s no longer a lineup lock given the explosive potential that we’ve seen from Tank Bigsby and Jacksonville’s indifference to getting him work, but he remains just inside of my top 20 this week in a game that I expect to be tight throughout.

Tank Bigsby Fantasy Outlook

Bigsby handled the first carry for the Jags last week and again was ripping off chunk plays. For the season, he’s only been handed the ball 21 times, but he’s managed to pick up 172 yards, fueling committee talk for the final winless team in the NFL.

A lack of versatility is going to cap Bigsby’s upside (and the downside of Etienne). His impact on our game might not be for himself but to completely negate our confidence in Etienne.

For now, Etienne is a fringe starter while Bigsby is a stash, but almost nothing from this backfield would surprise me this weekend, and that’s an uncomfortable spot to be.

Michael Pittman Jr. Fantasy Outlook

On the Colts’ first play from scrimmage last week, Richardson found Pittman for a 32-yard gain, a sight for sore eyes (Weeks 1-3: 29.3 receiving yards per game).

The duo hooked up for a 28-yard gain on the next series, and those of us who were hyping up Pittman this preseason were grinning from ear to ear. The two plays were nice to see, but with Richardson leaving shortly thereafter, we still don’t really have much evidence that his style can mesh with Pittman’s consistently.

With Flacco inserted into the lineup, Pittman was winning short-range targets on his way to his ninth career 100-yard effort. I do not doubt that Indy’s WR1 can succeed with a veteran under center (in Flacco’s last six appearances: 60% of his TD passes have come less than 10 yards downfield and one-third come less than five yards beyond the line of scrimmage), but this team clearly wants to get a grasp for what Richardson brings to the table.

Regardless of who starts at QB this week, I’m willing to bite on what we saw last week and plug in Pittman as my WR2. The Jags are allowing a league-high 6.3 yards per catch after receptions to receivers this season (no other defense is north of 5.5), a matchup I’ll gamble on as opposed to praying on backup quarterbacks figuring out how to get the ball to Tyreek Hill.

Josh Downs Fantasy Outlook

Downs caught a touchdown pass from Flacco last week while leading the team in both catches (eight) and targets (nine) in the upset win over the Steelers. He was in the slot for 82.5% of his naps and had no trouble winning on those timing routes against one of the best defenses in the sport.

It was good to see Downs flex this muscle, but does it matter? If Richardson is under center, sustaining a single short-yardage target was a struggle, making Downs a roster afterthought. That said, we now have proof of concept for a Flacco-led unit.

I’m stashing Downs if I have the roster space in PPR leagues and treating him as something of a handcuff where an injury is needed for him to truly be of any interest whatsoever.

Alec Pierce Fantasy Outlook

Pierce is a complicated player with an ultra-simple outlook this week. If Richardson is active, you consider Flexing him. If not, you don’t.

Opponents have completed 15 of 25 attempts for 437 yards and three touchdowns (zero interceptions) when throwing deep against the Jaguars this season. If there was ever a matchup made for Pierce, this is it, but the math changes if the man responsible for getting him the ball does.

Quick-throw rates, 2024:

• Flacco: 61.5% (19th of 36 qualifiers)
• Richardson: 42.9% (36th of 36 qualifiers)

Those numbers shouldn’t be the least bit surprising. Richardson is an athlete who can throw the ball to the moon while Flacco is a veteran who survives on savvy and timing.

If Richardson clears all hurdles, Pierce will push just ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. and into my top 30 at the position. If that’s not the case, he’ll be fighting to stay inside of my top 50. Stay tuned – Pierce already has two top-20 finishes and two of WR60 or worse on his 2024 résumé.

Brian Thomas Jr. Fantasy Outlook

Malik Nabers’ excellence and Marvin Harrison Jr.’s splash plays have masked what BTJ is doing – he’s been a top-25 producer at the position in three of four weeks this season. While I love the player, he does boast some limitations on the route-running front, and I fear that this is a tough matchup for a player like that.

The Colts are one of five defenses that have yet to allow a deep touchdown pass, and if we remove that upside from Thomas’ profile, he’s a risky Flex at best. I do expect this passing game to have some success, I’m just not sure it comes courtesy of their future WR1 …

Christian Kirk Fantasy Outlook

Are Kirk managers allowed to complain about a 7-61-1 stat line against the Texans last week?

Probably not. Getting a WR14 finish from a member of this underwhelming Jaguars offense is a net win, but after seeing the first four targets of the game and being missed on a long touchdown, there were points left on the field.

I worry a little bit about the Colts allowing the fifth-fewest yards after the catch per reception this season (3.4 yards), but Kirk’s role has been extending with time (9.7 aDOT in 2022, 10.7 last season, and 13.2 so far in 2024), making a defensive strength like that less impactful.

The increase in depth of target hasn’t come at the expense of slot usage. In fact, Kirk’s 78.7% slot rate is tracking for the highest rate of his career and is very much a spot where Indianapolis’ secondary is vulnerable.

Slot WRs’ success vs. Colts, 2024:

• Week 1: Stefon Diggs (21.9 fantasy points, 55.2% slot usage)
• Week 3: Rome Odunze (23.4 fantasy points, 41% slot usage)

They got the Malik Willis-led Packers in Week 2, a run-oriented script that had little to do with the Colts. Last week, the Steelers didn’t feature any one player in the slot, but their two top pass catchers (George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth) combined to catch five of six slot targets for 87 yards and a touchdown.

Kirk sits as a WR2 for me this week, ranking ahead of the streaking Diontae Johnson and the upside of Thomas.

Evan Engram Fantasy Outlook

The 2023 Pro Bowler came up lame during warmups ahead of Week 2 and has now missed three consecutive games due to that hamstring injury. This is all after essentially being invisible in the season opener against the Dolphins (one catch for five yards).

Safe to say, it hasn’t been a banner season for those who targeted the middle tier at the tight end position (or really anyone who spent anything at all to address TE). The Jaguars don’t go on bye until Week 12, which means that Engram will have to work through this injury within the cadence of a normal schedule — something that, based on reporting out of Jacksonville, seems to be nearing.

Through a month, it’s clear that this offense is lacking a go-to option, and that’s enough to assume that Engram is a fantasy starter the second he returns to the field. These soft-tissue injuries introduce in-game risk because they can flare up at a moment’s notice, but that’s a risk I’m willing to take at this position — particularly in a matchup where he caught all 12 of his targets a season ago.

Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans

• Spread: Texans -1
• Total: 46.5
• Bills implied points: 22.8
• Texans implied points: 23.8

Josh Allen Fantasy Outlook

Allen failed from a fantasy perspective last week against an MVP candidate, and he gets a chance for immediate redemption in Houston this week. If you roster Buffalo’s All-Pro, I’m going to go out on a limb and say you are 2-2 and in the middle of your league standings.

Why? Allen has a pair of weeks where he was the top overall producer at the position and two where he failed to finish as a top-25 option.

Personally, I think that’s noisy. In this Joe Brady system, Allen has shown the ability to rack up fantasy points, so I’m not the least bit worried about the Texans owning the lowest opponent completion percentage through the first month of the season (57.3%). That is a fact, but it’s also the product of some early season matchups – Sam Darnold is the one dangerous passer they’ve faced, and they coughed up four scores to him on 17 completions.

This game has the potential to soar over its projected total, and if that’s the case, we could be looking at two of the five highest-scoring players of Week 5.

C.J. Stroud Fantasy Outlook

Stroud has been a version of Allen thus far, but one with a more narrow range of outcomes (QB7 twice this season and outside of the top 12 in the other two weeks). How he gets his fantasy points is a bit different (34.8 passes thrown per game); in this matchup, that introduces a bit of a floor that I don’t believe exists for his opposing number.

The Bills have allowed a league-low 5.5 yards per pass attempt this season, excelling at covering up the perimeter, where Nico Collins traditionally lives. I expect the Texans to get creative with their ace receiver, but there is some risk in this profile that you need to be aware of when it comes to DFS.

The Bills blitz at the lowest rate in the league and that, naturally, comes with lower pressure numbers. In theory, that sounds great for a pocket passer like Stroud, but through four weeks, the numbers don’t reflect that.

Non-pressured numbers:

• 2023: 110.6 passer rating, 9.2 yards per attempt, 5.7% TD rate
• 2024: 95.5 passer rating, 6.8 yards per attempt, 4.8% TD rate

Stroud is my QB6 this week, and I think he’ll be productive, but Allen is my target in this game if that is how you’re piecing together a DFS weekly lineup.

James Cook Fantasy Outlook

Like every other Bill, Cook was powerless last week against the Ravens. It happens. Before that, he had a 13+ yard run and a 17+ yard catch in three straight games, showcasing a versatile skill set that locks him into fantasy lineups without much thought.

I don’t think the Bills will want to get into a shootout with Stroud and Company – under that assumption, I have him penciled in for 15+ touches with scoring equity. I’m looking for Cook to give us his third top-12 finish at the position of the season.

Joe Mixon Fantasy Outlook

All signs point to Mixon returning after consecutive DNPs (ankle), and I don’t think Cam Akers did enough in his stead (23 touches for 77 yards) to give us any worries about a committee.

The veteran back was the second-highest-scoring running back in Week 1, and while replicating that success is unlikely, this defense was just embarrassed by Derrick Henry. Keep an eye on the practice reports to confirm his status, but assuming there’s nothing in the way of setbacks, you can feel good about penciling in 14-16 carries and 3-5 targets.

Cam Akers Fantasy Outlook

Akers was not a top-25 running back in either of his opportunities as the starter. If he were to be penciled in as the go-to option this week, he’d be a viable Flex play for me, but nothing more (he caught just one pass across those two games).

Khalil Shakir Fantasy Outlook

How did we know that Week 4 was going sideways for the Bills? An Allen-to-Shakir target hit the ground. That was the first pass of its kind this season and just the seventh such occurrence since the beginning of last season.

That’s resulted in Shakir averaging 2.37 PPR points per target for his career, a golden rate as he is poised to see his target rate increase with time this season. The flow of the game on Sunday night was a factor, but I like what I saw in terms of an increase in the role of this slot specialist:

• Week 4: 9.6 aDOT
• Weeks 1-3: 3.7 aDOT

The elite efficiency has allowed Shakir to finish as a top-30 receiver in three of four games this season, a level of success that I actually am buying long-term. He’s a solid weekly option while his teammates offer more variance – I just happen to think we get the plus side of that variance this week.

Keon Coleman Fantasy Outlook

Was last week an appetizer? Coleman made a few nice plays (3-51-0) and left points on the field by dropping another chunk play; now the second-round pick gets the ideal spot for a breakout performance.

Coleman’s profile:

• aDOT: 15.1 yards
• Houston’s defense: 13.3 aDOT to opposing WRs, highest in the league
• Houston’s defense: 7.8% WR touchdown rate, fifth highest in the league

Coleman hasn’t been weighed down with opportunities this season, but in his limited looks, he has produced 37.4% over expectation. This is the first week in which I have the rookie ranked as my top Buffalo receiver – he’s a viable Flex play and a strong bring-back option for DFS players looking to stack up the Texans’ pass game.

Nico Collins Fantasy Outlook

Is Collins poised to be the best receiver in fantasy?

He was one of the five most efficient WRs across numerous metrics last season, and the league leader in receiving yardage hasn’t taken even a half step backward this season. In Week 4, Stroud completed all three of his passes on the first drive, and Collins caught all of them for 49 yards.

This offense has been geared toward getting its star involved in scoring situations (Stroud missed him on an end-zone look last week, that coming after he landed out of bounds on an end-zone fade earlier in the game and another instance in which he was held in the painted area), giving him an elite ceiling/floor profile.

The Bills are as stingy as any team in the league on perimeter passes (45% completion rate, 18.6 points below league average, with four interceptions against just one touchdown), and maybe that caps Collins’ upside this week, but he is a lineup lock that is capable of beating average defensive scheme due to his physical tools and Stroud’s willingness to put him in a position to make plays.

Stefon Diggs Fantasy Outlook

For the second time in three weeks, Diggs gets a revenge spot, and if this one goes anything like the first (10-94-0 during the Week 3 blowout loss to the Vikings), fantasy managers will be thrilled.

Diggs had a productive Week 4 against the Jaguars (69 receiving yards and a rushing touchdown on what looked like a play designed for Diggs to throw the ball) and is off to a great start in Houston with more top-15 finishes this season than CeeDee Lamb.

I do think Diggs is a sell-high candidate – I’d just hold off on pulling off such a deal until after this week. He’s a fine WR2 in all formats this week, ranking ahead of top targets in Miami, Cleveland, and Carolina.

Tank Dell Fantasy Outlook

After a rookie season filled with splash plays, Dell has found the sledding far more difficult in 2024, and that was before a chest injury that, while not suggested to be a long-term issue, did cost him Week 4.

Dell’s next top-40 finish at the position this season will be his first, fueling my concern that what we saw from him last season may have been aberrational. His size profile was always going to be something to overcome, and it’s proving to be a problem.

Dell’s usage patterns aren’t drastically different than a season ago (a minor uptick in slot snaps has resulted in a manageable decline in average depth of target), but he’s simply struggling to win.

As a rookie, Dell was targeted on 23.4% of the snaps in which he was on the field and racked up 2.22 yards per route run, strong numbers that don’t happen by accident over a 319-route sample size. Thus far in 2024, however, his target rate has slipped to 16.2%, and his yards-per-route-run number has tanked to 0.94.

See what I did there? Dell’s numbers “tanked.” Who says math guys can’t be artists with a pen?

In theory, more slot snaps are a good thing for this specific matchup, but he’s still pretty clearly Houston’s preferred perimeter option next to Collins (13-7 target edge over Diggs when lined up wide in Weeks 1-3). That subjects Dell, assuming health, to the same concerns I brought up in Collins’ profile.

For me, the case for Dell is pretty straightforward — wait and see. This injury, along with limited success, means you have to be patient and hope that the upside from 2023 reappears down the stretch when the Texans are going to be pushed to score in bunches (Weeks 15-17: Dolphins, Chiefs, and Ravens).

Houston doesn’t go on bye until Week 14, meaning that Dell will have to work through this injury without the benefit of an off week. He’s a clear hold in all formats (trading him for pennies on the dollar right now is poor practice). Your goal is to win the war, even if it means losing some early battles.

Dalton Kincaid Fantasy Outlook

It’s easy to look at Kincaid’s 32.2 PPR points to date and be disappointed, but he’s been a top-14 finisher at the position in three straight weeks. And with his expected point total inching up each week, I think you can still feel good here.

After posting a negative-0.6 aDOT through two weeks this season, Kincaid’s average depth of target is 9.0 over the past two games, a usage pattern that I expect to be sustained. Buffalo’s tight end was the fifth-highest-scoring option at the position last week, and I think we get more of the same in this potential shootout.

Dalton Schultz Fantasy Outlook

I promise you that there is going to be a time this season (if there hasn’t been already) where you’re going to be scanning your waiver wire for tight end help and the “Hey, at least he plays for a good offense” thought will cross your mind.

In theory, I don’t have a problem with that. In practice, at least when it comes to Schultz, I do.

Schultz has run 135 routes this season, and two have resulted in a target inside the opponent’s 30-yard line. So does he really have the scoring equity that you assume? Schultz turned five targets into 34 yards in the win over the Jaguars last week, good for a TE20 finish, his best of the season.

Schultz is a decent player, but there are better roles for you to invest in.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos

• Spread: Broncos -2.5
• Total: 36.5
• Raiders implied points: 17
• Broncos implied points: 19.5

Gardner Minshew II Fantasy Outlook

Minshew led the league in completion percentage through two weeks (77.5%), but his efficiency has tailed off since (61.5%), and I’m not sure I see that changing with Davante Adams banged up and/or on the trade block.

Denver is a top-three defense in both blitz and pressure rate, making it an uphill battle for Minshew to finish as a top-15 producer for the first time this season.

Bo Nix Fantasy Outlook

By now, you’ve seen Nix’s halftime and full-time box scores from a downright ugly Week 4 win over the Jets. I’m not as concerned about the floor performance as I am about the fact that the Broncos can win a game with that little from their offense.

I continue to believe that Nix will pop up on highlight shows in a positive way throughout this season, but not on nearly a consistent enough basis to make it matter for us. He has just one finish this season better than QB20, and that’s the range I have him ranked this week.

Zamir White Fantasy Outlook

White’s next finish as a top-30 running back will be his first, and this isn’t the greatest matchup to make it happen. He hasn’t caught a pass in consecutive games and is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry this season.

White was a dead-zone running back this draft season, and he’s fitting that profile as an RB who relies on volume but lacks versatility. This type of running back needs to score touchdowns in bunches, but this offense doesn’t provide that opportunity.

White has been ruled out for Week 5 with a groin injury and his standing as a fantasy asset moving forward is very much in question.

Alexander Mattison Fantasy Outlook

Mattison has been effective when given the opportunity and that’ll be the case this week with White officially declared out on Friday afternoon.

Simply facts@AlexMattison22 is not one of the 111, but he is one of the 5 pic.twitter.com/48yQwLuwAr

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) September 29, 2024

Given how little White has shown in the lead role, this is a golden opportunity for Mattison to assume the lead duties moving forward. Of course, he could fall victim to the same lacks in efficiency that we’ve seen from White, but he’s a volume based RB2 for this week at the very least and we can evaluate moving forward as we get updates on White (and see how Mattison works with an extended role in this underwhelming offense this week).

Javonte Williams Fantasy Outlook

Williams has one finish as a top-30 running back and is at risk of losing reps to Jaleel McLaughlin. I prefer him to White in this game because he has more single-play upside and the offense as a whole has a wider range of outcomes.

That said, if you can avoid both of these backfields altogether, your mental state will be better for it.

Jaleel McLaughlin Fantasy Outlook

As much as we like some of the splash plays, McLuaghlin’s peak finish this season is RB35. In theory, he’s a nice player to stash. Williams has a checkered health track record and we like to dream about what a player like this can do if given 15-18 touches every week.

I’m fine if you want to fill your bench that way, but make sure you’re doing so without the expectation of stand-alone value as long Williams is on the field.

Davante Adams Fantasy Outlook

A late-week hamstring injury suffered in practice resulted in Adams missing his first game since joining the Raiders ahead of the 2022 season.

Did the injury save you from yourself? Could the doubt it puts in your mind encourage you to be bold this weekend and bench Vegas’ star, even if active?

It’s within the range of outcomes.

Through the first three weeks of this season, Adams’ per-target production (1.66) wasn’t much different than his first two seasons with the silver and black (1.69) — it’s been his ability to earn targets.

On-field target share:

• Weeks 1-3, 2024: 21.4%
• 2022-23: 29.6%

Adams’ aDOT has been slowly declining over the past two years, trending back to his rate with the Packers. Short targets aren’t an issue if you’re playing for an Aaron Rodgers-led offense that ranks among the most efficient and potent in the league. They are, however, less enticing if you’re playing for the 2024 Las Vegas Raiders.

The sheer volume got Adams to the finish line more often than not last season, and yet, Denver had his number. In the two matchups last season, Adams was fed 17 targets, but none of them resulted in a catch gaining more than 18 yards (112 yards in total).

With four teams on a bye and various injuries elsewhere, it’s possible Adams’ role is enough to land him in your starting lineup. But you’re not crazy for looking twice at this future Hall of Famer and wondering about his stock this weekend.

Jakobi Meyers Fantasy Outlook

Meyers saw 41.7% of the targets last week against the Browns with Adams watching, and while that exact role is going to be difficult to repeat, he certainly could see the 30-35% that Adams routinely did when healthy for this team.

Of course, a high volume of looks like that in an offense with average-to-below-average QB play will come with missed opportunities (Minshew missed him down the left sideline on Sunday in what could have been a chunk play with a reasonable pass). That will be irritating as you watch the games, but I’m happy to deal with that if it means a high volume of looks.

For his career, Meyers averages 15.6 PPR points per game when seeing at least 26.5% of the targets, which feels safe to assume in the short term. Most weeks, Meyers will be pushing for Flex value in my rankings, but with Patrick Surtain II possibly shadowing this week (the Broncos surrender the third-fewest yards per pass, 5.6), I’d rather roll the dice on a receiver like Dontayvion Wicks with Jordan Love back.

Tre Tucker Fantasy Outlook

Tucker was on the field for 85.5% of Vegas’ offensive snaps last week and filled the short route role, earning six targets that totaled just 35 air yards. He threw a nice block on DJ Turner’s touchdown, and little things like that earned him an increased role this season, even before Adams’ injury.

However, Tucker is of more value to the Raiders than fantasy managers.

We’ve seen the third option struggle to get fed in explosive offenses (Jameson Williams and Jaxon Smith-Njigba last season, players like Xavier Worthy and Tank Dell this season), and I think it’s safe to call this Raiders offense “less than explosive.”

Add Tucker if you’d like to take a short-term flier, but it’s a long shot that he’ll ever flirt with your starting lineup.

Courtland Sutton Fantasy Outlook

Sutton was the focal point of a low-octane offense from the jump last week (targeted on the first two passes) and finished with 100% of Denver’s receiving yards — on his way to a WR3 finish.

Not WR3 overall — WR3, as in outside of the top 24 pass catchers for Week 4.

Of course, the weather and a brutal matchup played into that, but if that rate of involvement is going to bear that little fruit, ranking Sutton inside the top 30 at the position feels a bit aggressive.

This week, and until further notice, he’s going to hover in that WR35-40 range with names like Darnell Mooney and Michael Wilson, two players with a lower target share but more upside by way of their respective signal-callers.

Brock Bowers Fantasy Outlook

Even with Adams and Michael Mayer sidelined last week, Bowers posted his second straight sub-15% on-field target share game after clearing 25% in his first two contests.

This is expected as rookie seasons for elite pass catchers are often about ebb and flow. They are about adjusting to adjustments, both from the standout talent and the NFL as a whole.

Bowers wasn’t far from turning an ugly stat line into a productive one last week. He let a chunk play slip through his hands, but if he had made it, I guess that you’re not asking any questions.

You still shouldn’t be.

This is a high-pedigree option in an offense that is willing to explore what he can do at all three levels. With Surtain circling Vegas’ receivers this week, don’t be surprised if Bowers looks like he did in his first two games and posts a top-five finish at the position.

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers

• Spread: 49ers -7.5
• Total: 50.5
• Cardinals implied points: 21.5
• 49ers implied points: 29

Kyler Murray Fantasy Outlook

I had Murray ranked as my QB1 last week, thinking that an ideal matchup against the Commanders would prove more impactful than not having Trey McBride at his disposal.

I stand by that train of thought, but Arizona had the ball for under 27 minutes and never got on track. Murray was efficient with a 72.7% completion rate, he just didn’t have a ton of valuable opportunities.

He’s not my QB1 this week in a tougher matchup, but Murray’s versatility, along with a nice stable of pass catchers, makes him a lineup lock that you need not think twice about, even after consecutive underwhelming weeks. He faced the 49ers once last season and had 45 opportunities (pass + rush attempts) — if he gets anything like that on Sunday, his production ceiling is as high as anyone in the sport.

Brock Purdy Fantasy Outlook

Like everyone else, I watch the games every week and, for the most part, we know what to expect. Not from a production standpoint, but when it comes to how certain players/offenses operate – the Steelers are going to bludgeon you, the Cowboys are going to operate an air raid, etc.

I say that because my default assumption for the 49ers was that of a well-oiled machine, an offense that was always on time and relied very little in the way of improv.

That’s not what I saw last week. Purdy was moving around more than normal and taking some chances, which I don’t associate with this Kyle Shanahan offense. When it comes to his fantasy prospects, I loved seeing this. Efficiency was his calling card last season, but posting one of the 10 best YPA seasons of all time isn’t exactly something I’m labeling as sustainable. If we can add a dash of risk-taking (i.e. George Kittle’s touchdown last week) to the meal Purdy cooks weekly, he could enter the second tier of signal caller.

Arizona has allowed the third-highest opponent passer rating this season, a number that is the direct result of a video game-ish 78.6% opponent completion percentage, a rate that is 5.2 percentage points clear of any other defense.

Purdy is the only quarterback with multiple 25-yard completions in all four weeks this season, and if that streak continues through this week, my QB6 ranking might prove to be too low. He attempted 46 passes in two games against the Cardinals last season, and five of them resulted in touchdowns.

If there’s a time to buy Purdy, it’s right now. You get access to this matchup but, more importantly, you position yourself to gain from a Rams-Dolphins-Lions close to the fantasy season (and another Cardinals matchup if your league extends to Week 18).

James Conner Fantasy Outlook

Conner has been a top-15 running back in three of four games this season, and given that he picked up at least five yards on 40% of his rush attempts against a 49ers defense that was playing at a higher level last season, there’s no reason to think he can’t make it 4-of-5.

Through September, San Francisco allowed the third most yards after contact per carry to running backs — arm tackles aren’t going to get it done in this spot. You can worry all you want about Conner’s ability to make it through four full months — for Week 5, he’s a top-15 running back without much question.

Jordan Mason Fantasy Outlook

All reports suggest that this is Mason’s backfield for at least the next month, and nothing about his usage indicates that regression is coming our way.

Mason has finished three of four weeks this season as a top-12 running back, a streak he’ll have every chance to extend this week. No, he’s not Christian McCaffrey, but he’s assumed a similar role, and CMC tore apart this vulnerable Cardinals defense almost exactly a year ago (Week 4, 2023: 27 touches, 177 yards, and four touchdowns).

In case you’ve been living under a rock – Mason is pacing for 2,142 yards if he holds this role for the remainder of the season.

Marvin Harrison Jr. Fantasy Outlook

The rookie is a pretty clear start given the early flashes we see every week. It’s been mental warfare up to this point — Harrison is scripted high-value looks early, makes good on them, and then disappears.

• Quarter 1: 50.7 points, 133.4% over expectation
• Rest of the game: 12.6 points, 54.6% below expectation

The previous high, since 2000, for a rookie in first quarters through four weeks was Hollywood Brown (38.7 PPR points). If you strictly gave him his first-quarter production over the course of 17 full games, he’d finish the season with 153 catches for 3,009 yards and 68 touchdowns.

That would be nice, wouldn’t it?

Despite the flashes, Harrison has just one finish better than WR19 on his NFL report card up to this point. I like that to change sooner than later – he’s a top-10 play for me this week, a ranking that came without much hesitation at all.

Michael Wilson Fantasy Outlook

Trust the process. Young receivers can take time to develop and you owe it to yourself to flag growth when you see it, and that is where we currently stand with Wilson.

• Weeks 1-2: four targets on 54 routes (7.4%)
• Weeks 3-4: 16 targets on 59 routes (27.1%)

The 49ers allow the fourth-most yards per completion (12.1), a defensive flaw that could allow Wilson to break out in this spot, much like he did in Week 4 last season (7-76-2) against San Francisco.

In that big performance, Wilson caught every one of his targets while his teammates hauled in just 61.8% of their looks from Josh Dobbs. He only has one top-40 performance this season, and that makes Flexing him with confidence a bit difficult. But if you’re missing a few options due to injuries or bye weeks, I could see calling his number.

Wilson is my WR37, ranking him in the Darnell Mooney and Dontayvion Wicks neighborhood.

Greg Dortch Fantasy Outlook

For a player that has yet to reach 50 receiving yards or find the end zone, Dortch continually grades out higher for me than most, something that is again the case this week.

For me, Dortch is the way to bet cheap on this Cardinals offense, and with bye weeks upon us, sometimes that’s what you’re looking for. Through four weeks, 71.1% of Dortch’s routes have come from the slot, and the 49ers happen to own the fourth-highest opponent passer rating when throwing to that spot on the field (24-of-30 for 391 yards).

Given the efficiency of the targets Dortch earns, I give him a good chance to reach double figures in PPR points this week in a matchup where the game script figures to lean in his favor.

Deebo Samuel Sr. Fantasy Outlook

Samuel hauled in a 53-yard bomb in the third quarter last week (second career catch of 40+ air yards), proving that he was able to work himself into game shape rather quickly.

He only had five receiving yards outside of the big play, but seeing a handful of targets and being handed the ball twice is all I wanted to see in his return to action. There’s some risk involved in Samuel’s profile, but with Kittle (23.7% reception share) dinged up, you can feel great about playing this offensive weapon.

Brandon Aiyuk Fantasy Outlook

We’ve yet to see any signs of life from Aiyuk (68th of 72 qualified receivers in production compared to expectation, -32.2%), and while I’m willing to write off some of the struggles to limited reps this summer, we are nearing put-up or shut-up time.

On the bright side, Purdy did look his way in the end zone despite double coverage, a level of confidence that we had seen in previous seasons and part of why I thought he had WR1 potential this season. I still like there is a fantasy star bubbling beneath the surface here — we just need to see it.

If you’re struggling to blindly trust Aiyuk, I get it. He’s yet to finish a game better than WR35 this season (Ja’Lynn Polk has a top-35 finish this season, as does his teammate DeMario Douglas, despite playing for an offense that is the polar opposite of what the 49ers have).

If I go down with the ship because I bought in on Aiyuk at a discount after a slow month, I’m OK with that. I’m going to go ahead and buy some more stock in him where I can at a discount.

Jauan Jennings Fantasy Outlook

Jennings is a better player than most give him credit for. I’m not suggesting that he will lead a healthy version of San Francisco’s passing game in targets (six) and receiving yards (88) like he did last week, but his standing as the game’s best receiver handcuff is legitimate.

I suspect that Aiyuk will round into form with time, and Samuel is featured in the short passing game, making Jennings a tough weekly sell when both are active, even in this uber-efficient offense. That said, he’s done more than enough to remain on rosters.

Week 4 routes run:

• Aiyuk: 27
• Samuel: 25
• Kittle: 24
• Jennings: 20
• Juszczyk: 18
• Mason: 16

This is a talented team that simply features the best matchup. Sometimes that’ll be Jennings, but usually, it won’t be.

Trey McBride Fantasy Outlook

Stop me if you’ve heard it before — it’s been a rough start to the season for the tight end position. A concussion resulted in McBride sitting out last week, but even before the injury, his per-target PPR production was down 26.9% from last season, due in part to a red-zone target rate that is less than half of what it was during his breakout sophomore season.

I’m not sweating it. McBride was on the field for 84% of Arizona’s offensive snaps through the first three weeks, and if a talented player is on the field with regularity as a featured member of an above-average offense — he’s a locked-in fantasy option.

McBride lit up these 49ers in Week 15 last season to the tune of 10 catches and 102 yards on 11 targets (his teammates in that 16-point loss: 59.3% catch rate). While this is certainly a different structure, he is a mismatch waiting to happen.

If McBride is active for the Cardinals, he’s active for you. It really is that simple.

George Kittle Fantasy Outlook

In the event that you forgot what Kittle was capable of, he proved his health with a touchdown catch in triple coverage last week against the Patriots. He’s pulled down 15 of his 17 targets this season, and while the week-over-week consistency may never be there, Kittle’s ceiling is great enough to chase at a position that offers next to zero stability.

Neither Sam LaPorta nor Dalton Kincaid have had success in their matchups with the Cardinals this season, but that’s not stopping me from ranking Kittle as a top-five option this week.

Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Rams

• Spread: Packers -3.5
• Total: 48
• Packers implied points: 25.8
• Rams implied points: 22.3

Jordan Love Fantasy Outlook

Love looked predictably rusty against an aggressive Vikings bunch in his return to action after missing just two games due to an MCL sprain, but his willingness to cut it loose late was encouraging.

As the Packers find their groove, Love saved your fantasy matchup with the best fourth quarter of his career (20.1 fantasy points, a number that Aaron Rodgers only topped twice during his time with the team). It required garbage time (garbage-adjacent, at the very least) for Love to reward your loyalty last week, something that I don’t think will be the case this week.

We know about the receiver talent in Green Bay, so the fact that Tucker Kraft’s production from last week could carry over (LAR: league-high 10.6 yards allowed per tight end target this season) lands Love safely inside my top 10 at the position.

We got glimpses of meaningful mobility from Love last season, and that’s what I’ll be watching in this game. I don’t have any questions about him as a passer, but if he is going to be a difference-maker this season, his ability to move around is critical.

Matthew Stafford Fantasy Outlook

Stafford was going to be operating on the fringes of usability this season in a best-case scenario, so it should be no surprise that his value has tailed off given the impactful injuries.

After completing 34 passes in the season-opening loss to the Lions with an active Puka Nacua, Stafford hasn’t even attempted 30 passes in a game. For a pocket-locked QB, it shouldn’t be a surprise that limited volume at that level has resulted in three straight finishes outside of the top-20 scorers at the position.

Stafford is a low-end QB2 this week that I’m actively looking to replace with other options if at all possible in a Superflex setting (Joe Flacco is an easy play over him if he gets the start, and I’m not against embracing chaos with Bo Nix against the Raiders if you have the choice).

Josh Jacobs Fantasy Outlook

Jacobs doesn’t have a top-20 finish this season despite a usage rate above what I expected. The ground game was scrapped out of Week 4’s loss to the Vikings, so it was good to see him earn six targets (four catches for 27 yards).

Fantasy managers don’t need him to be Alvin Kamara — they just need a few targets per game and a continued domination of the carry count. He’s been responsible for 85.7% of Packer running back red-zone touches through four weeks — that’s a role that is in your starting lineup without much thought every week, even if the efficiency leaves room to be desired.

Emanuel Wilson Fantasy Outlook

Wilson is a nice handcuff to own, but he’s a long shot to ever own projectable stand-alone value as long Jacobs is healthy. Wilson was handed the ball on the Packers’ third play last week and was on the field for 39.2% of the offensive snaps – positive trends but not nearly enough to burst into the Flex conversation.

Kyren Williams Fantasy Outlook

It’s not easy to have four straight top-20 finishes at the position despite not having a single touch gain more than 15 yards, but Williams is a rare player with an elite role. Los Angeles’ lone remaining healthy asset from the preseason has scored in seven straight games and has carved out a role that makes him one of the more reliable options in our game.

The fact that he has caught 13 of 14 targets this season also helps elevate his floor, both in general and in this specific matchup. Though four weeks, the Packers have allowed the fourth-most yards per running back target this season (8.6), giving Willimas multiple ways to pay off my top-12 ranking of him.

Players like Williams are rare, and you’re lucky to have someone who can overcome offensive limitations like this.

Jayden Reed Fantasy Outlook

The Packers have a receiver room loaded with talent, but, at this point, it’s safe to say that everyone is fighting for the WR2 role next to Reed as opposed to a full WR committee situation. Through four weeks, he leads the position in production over expectation (+82.9%) and has too versatile a skill set to be taken away by any one defensive scheme.

Need proof? How about a 24-yard catch and a rush attempt in Love’s first drive back from a two-week absence? Managers were fortunate to get the touchdown last week against the Vikings (Green Bay likely punch in a six-inch touchdown with Josh Jacobs if not for a Matt LaFleur personal foul that moved the ball back to the 15-yard line and resulted in Reed’s score), but the connection with Love is nothing short of special.

From a nerdy standpoint, Green Bay’s willingness to pound Jacobs should thrill managers with Reed rostered. When Love is under center, Reed’s production in play-action situations looks like a typo:

• 20 targets
• 17 catches
• 231 yards
• three touchdowns

The Rams have the fifth-lowest defensive success rate against the run – don’t be surprised if we get an NFL RedZone cutaway on Sunday to see Reed (my WR12 this week) streaking down the field.

Christian Watson Fantasy Outlook

“The greatest ability is availability.”

Clichés are corny, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be accurate. Watson was active for 23 of 34 games through the first two seasons of his career, with a series of soft-tissue injuries resulting in the missed time.

We were told this summer that there was a muscle imbalance in his legs that was addressed and that we should be confident in the hamstring issues being a thing of the past — but now Watson is dealing with a high ankle sprain.

I’m not a doctor, nor do I play one on TV, but continued lower body injuries for a player who relies on his physical tools feel like a problem.

We know that the Packers want Watson on the field and believe they have their franchise signal-caller under center, a thought process that should keep Watson on fantasy rosters as we await further information on this injury.

That said, his greatest contribution to our fantasy world this season may be sitting out, thus adding some clarity to the target hierarchy in Green Bay and allowing his talented teammates to get the chance to break out.

With or without Watson, Reed should be viewed as the alpha playmaker of the receiver group. Based on the usage from last week, managers should feel great about who is second in command for Week 5 at the very least.

Dontayvion Wicks Fantasy Outlook

In Love’s return, Wicks racked up 215 air yards, the second most by a receiver this season and the most by a Packer not named Davante Adams over the past six years. He may have only hauled in five of 13 targets, but with Watson sidelined, he has clearly been identified as the field stretching option in this offense and that could result in another usable week from the 2023 fifth-rounder.

Big-play WRs vs. Rams in 2024:

• Week 1: Jameson Williams — 24.4 fantasy points (nine targets, 14.6 aDOT)
• Week 2: Marvin Harrison Jr. — 29 fantasy points (eight targets, 19.5 aDOT)
• Week 3: Jauan Jennings — 46.5 fantasy points (12 targets, 13.4 aDOT)
• Week 4: DJ Moore — 11.2 fantasy points (six targets, 14.7 aDOT)

Those stat lines are illuminating, and while Moore’s numbers drag down the averages, he did account for half of Chicago’s receiver targets — it just wasn’t a high-volume game. Wicks has the athletic skill set that could thrive in this matchup, and that is why I’m comfortable putting him on the Flex radar, even in an offense with no shortage of viable pieces.

I currently have him ranked over Jaylen Waddle, Courtland Sutton, and Jordan Addison, all of whom your first instinct would likely slot above him.

Demarcus Robinson Fantasy Outlook

Robinson saw seven targets in the season opener but hasn’t earned more than four looks in a game since. His routes have been slowly ticking down, which makes him a tough bet in any format, with the Packers ranking in the top quarter of the NFL in time of possession and the Rams ranking in the bottom quarter.

In theory, the 18.2 aDOT comes with preloaded upside, but with Green Bay owning a low blitz rate, I’m not comfortable in Robinson exposing single coverage for the type of spike play that it requires to make him a viable option.

Romeo Doubs Fantasy Outlook

The third-year receiver has 15 targets across Love’s two starts this season and impressed with eight scores last year. Doubs was heavily involved in the first half of Week 4’s loss to the Vikings (29.2% target share with a near touchdown) but was a pretty clear fourth option in the second half as Green Bay attempted to storm all the way back.

With Watson dinged up, there’s one fewer mouth to feed and, thus, a clearer path to Doubs receiving opportunities in scoring position that we know he is capable of paying off. That said, reports have surfaced this week about Doubs being unhappy with his role on the team and skipping practices.

He will be inactive for Week 5. In light of the Packers’ decision to suspend Doubs for conduct detrimental to the team, this is a situation that demands monitoring. Bo Melton is the stash to make ahead of Week 5 — not only will he be in for extended reps, but he could have a lasting role on this offense if Watson and Doubs aren’t active for the coming weeks.

Tutu Atwell Fantasy Outlook

He may only stand 5’9”, but Atwell has been able to make a few splash plays given his extended role, and that’s been enough to justify him being added in most leagues.

I don’t hate it.

Atwell has cleared 80 receiving yards in consecutive games and now faces the second-worst defense in terms of yards per completion allowed (12.3, NFL average: 10.6). That stat is tied to Green Bay consistently being attacked downfield (third-highest opponent aDOT when targeting the WR position), a spot where we’ve seen Atwell win on occasion.

The looks have been limited, but Atwell has produced 32.4% over expectation this season, ranking him 10th of 72 qualifiers. I don’t have him ranked as a top-40 option because I fear that the Packers control this game. However, if the Rams are playing from behind for the majority of the afternoon, there is a path where Atwell makes the most of a deep look or two.

Tucker Kraft Fantasy Outlook

Kraft has seen over 18% of the targets when he’s been on the field in three straight games, and with Love now under center, that level of involvement alone is enough to justify going in this direction.

The 2023 third-round pick has yet to post an aDOT over 3.5 yards in a game this season. While that caps his ceiling, those of us streaming the position are more worried about a reasonable floor than any sort of upside case.

The number of viable tight ends seems to decline by the week, and with two of them on bye, Kraft — Week 4’s top scorer at the position — is a top-12 option in this spot, one whom I’m playing over both of Baltimore’s options and the ever frustrating Kyle Pitts.

New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks

• Spread: Seahawks -6
• Total: 41.5
• Giants implied points: 17.8
• Seahawks implied points: 23.8

Daniel Jones Fantasy Outlook

Jones completed 29 passes on Thursday night, tied for the second-highest total he’s ever recorded. He cleared his season high by 45 passing yards yet failed to reach 10 fantasy points and let anyone who played him down after a pair of top-12 finishes at the position against the Commanders and Browns.

Jones looked fine as an NFL quarterback, but he didn’t do any of the things we needed from a fantasy point of view. After a gimme 39-yard completion on the third play of the game to Malik Nabers, Jones went just 2 of 7 with an interception when attempting to throw deep in Week 4.

The quantity of throws doesn’t project to be the issue for Jones, given the state of the Giants team; but the quality is obviously a concern. Oftentimes, he can make up for this flaw with his legs, but Jones carried the ball just four times for three yards and has yet to break a 10-yard gain on the ground this season.

I don’t doubt that Jones will post another few usable weeks this season, which is great if you roster him in a Best Ball setting, but the idea of choosing to play him in a redraft format isn’t for me.

Since 2008, Jones has been one of two quarterbacks to throw 40+ passes without a touchdown in two September games in the same season (the other: Jacoby Brissett last season).

Geno Smith Fantasy Outlook

Smith produced career highs across the board on a fun Monday nigher in Detroit; as a result, he leads the league in passing yards through four weeks (1,182). The QBs who pile up yardage at that level aren’t always super aggressive downfield, but they rarely own an aDOT that is 14.7% below the league average like Smith’s.

I’m tempted to say that the past four weeks are the best month of Smith’s 2024 season (three top-10 finishes while getting there in a variety of ways). Despite the low aDOT, he’s been remarkably productive down the field – it’s he and Brock Purdy as the only players with at least three deep completions in all four weeks this season.

Despite my long-term worries, Smith is a top-12 QB for me this week against a Giants defense that has allowed the third-highest opponent completion percentage (72.6%).

Devin Singletary Fantasy Outlook

Much like Jones, Singletary’s stock came crashing back to earth against the Cowboys. The veteran back outscored Bijan Robinson over the two previous weeks, but on Thursday, Singletary managed just 38 yards on 15 touches and earned only a single target against what was one of the most vulnerable run defenses in the league entering the contest.

The problem? A few predictable ones.

The Giants haven’t scored a touchdown in four straight home starts for Jones (44 drives), so it shouldn’t be a major shock that Singletary logged just one red-zone touch. He also averaged just 1.14 yards per carry before contact, less than a third of what he averaged to open the season, and a lack of support resulted in him producing 42.2% below expectations.

As the season goes on and the franchise naturally shifts to a forward-thinking state of mind, it’s hard to imagine the three-to-one edge in touches Singletary held in this game over rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. sticking.

If you can get out of the Singletary business, I would, though that became more difficult throughout this week as a groin injury cropped up and will now cost him Week 5 at the very least.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. Fantasy Outlook

Four carries for two yards.

That’s not exactly a stat line that will be on the refrigerator at Tracy’s house, but there were a few positive signs to justify holding onto him if you can as we enter bye week season.

I thought Tracy getting the second carry of the game was illuminating, as it doubled the number of first-quarter rush attempts he had through the first three weeks of his career. He also had a 19-yard catch and was targeted again deep down the field on a wheel route.

Slowly but surely. Week 4 obviously wasn’t a standout performance on any level for the rookie, but New York is going to be looking long term sooner than later. With Tracy walking into the starting role this week, any opportunity to get him o the cheap could disappear in the next 24 hours.

The value of the lead role in New York is shaky at best, but the idea of adding a potential player on the cheap now who could earn 12-15 touches is appealing, as it gives your roster the type of depth it may need as the weather flips and injuries pop up. This is a talented kid and at the running back position, the value of the unknown can be more valuable than most give it credit for.

Tracy is a low-end flex play for me this week, ranking in the tier of running backs like Kareem Hunt and Rico Dowdle.

Kenneth Walker III Fantasy Outlook

Walker missed consecutive games with an oblique injury, furthering the narrative that he might be a little bit of a fragile player. You can call him fragile all you want — I call him one of the more explosive players at the position.

Both things can be true, but fantasy football is a war that is won by earning victories in a bunch of small battles, and as long as Walker is getting his 15+ touches, he’s going to be winning you those battles on an awfully consistent basis.

• 1,287 rushing yards
• 270 receiving yards
• 17 touchdowns

Those are Walker’s numbers over his past six games if you extend them for an entire season. Those rushing and touchdown totals would have both ranked top three at the position for 2023, which is the level of upside we are looking at with him (top-10 producer in both of his games this season).

Of course, I’m not thrilled with the short week for Walker after a couple of DNPs, but if he looked at all hindered to you on Monday night, we aren’t watching the same game. Walker is a true threat to lead the position in scoring in Week 5 as he faces the league’s worst run defense in terms of yards allowed to running backs after first contact thus far in 2024.

Zach Charbonnet Fantasy Outlook

After playing 85% or more of the snaps in consecutive games as the lead in Seattle’s backfield, Charbonnet saw his participation (41% of snaps) trend toward what we saw in the first week (33.3%) with Walker at full strength.

Charbonnet has totaled 17 touches in those two Walker games, usage that puts him on the fringe of usable in deeper formats. The rushing efficiency hasn’t been there (3.7 yards per carry this season with none of his 42 carries gaining more than 13 yards) on the ground, but with 15 catches on 17 targets for 115 yards and a score, there’s a level of versatility that is interesting.

In most leagues, Charbonnet is more of a strong handcuff than a Flex option. However, with carnage continuing to happen at the position and the Seahawks’ offense proving capable of scoring, that could flip sooner than later, especially in a positive game script.

I’ve got Charbonnet ranked in the mid-30s at the position, putting him alongside the likes of Jaleel McLaughlin and Chase Brown.

Malik Nabers Fantasy Outlook

Nabers went streaking down the left sideline on the third play Thursday night and was as wide-open as you’ll see a star receiver ever be. Did Dallas forget about the rookie?

Nope, they tried. He simply hit a double move that left the defender so crippled that he wasn’t in the frame as the camera tracked the ball to its final destination.

It’s difficult to overstate just how impressive this kid has been in opening his career. Nabers has the second-most receptions (35) ever through four career games (Puka Nacua had 39), recording at least eight grabs in each of his past three games — something DK Metcalf has never done.

Malik Nabers making guys touch grass 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/OEshvF2TSc

— NFL (@NFL) September 27, 2024

The big play to open Week 4 wasn’t just impressive on the stat sheet, it spoke to a larger New York philosophy. And that’s to funnel its offense toward Nabers and look in on him every single time a favorable matchup presents itself. For fantasy managers, that’s of course great, but the downside is there.

Any player being featured as heavily as Nabers is, especially for a 1-3 team that didn’t have much in the way of expectations coming into this season, carries a health risk. Nabers suffered a concussion late in Thursday’s loss, putting his status into question this week.

A case of the dizzies is the only thing that can stop Nabers at this point. He’s a lineup lock moving forward, but he has been ruled out for this week. Concussion protocol has traditionally resulted in a single missed week, so the hope is that you’ll have access to this explosive talent next weekend against a leaky Bengals defense.

In his absence — this is ugly. Wan’Dale Robinson is already being loaded down with targets, but his frame isn’t the type that is going to handle the Nabers role. Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt will see more run than usual this week and that puts them as interesting punt plays in a DFS setting, but banking on either in an annual et-up is a risk you don’t have to take.

Giants rookie Malik Nabers has the second-most receptions of any player in their first four career games in NFL history. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/r2u9RvgbDI

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 27, 2024

Wan’Dale Robinson Fantasy Outlook

Initially, a player who averages fewer than 50 receiving yards per game, hasn’t made a catch for more than 20 yards, and has recently scored the third-fewest points in a game with 11+ receptions doesn’t seem very appealing.

But with PPR being the standard scoring format across most websites, Robinson’s pacing for 110.5 receptions this season lands him squarely in the Flex discussion every week. That will only be more true as we enter the portion of the schedule that involves navigating bye weeks.

Robinson was targeted on five of Jones’ first eight throws in last week’s loss and caught all of them — for a whopping 34 yards.

The season heat map is exactly what you’d expect from a player with a 4.8-yard aDOT (average depth of target) on the season. While it’s rarely exciting, it’s also rarely a letdown in an offense that is playing from behind with regularity (trailing for 64.4% of their offensive snaps through the first month).

Say what you will about Jones, but his completion percentage on short passes sits at 75.8% since the beginning of last season, a nice tick up from 70% in his career prior and a stabilizing force behind Robinson’s weekly value. He’s again a viable Flex play, even if you don’t want to admit it.

DK Metcalf Fantasy Outlook

Metcalf has finished two weeks this season as a top-12 option at the position and two outside of the top 25, a level of volatility that keeps him out of my rest-of-season top tier.

That said, we are in the business of winning Week 5, and in that world, he is a Tier 1 receiver for me as he faces a secondary that has had all sorts of problems defending WR1s.

In four weeks, the opposing alpha facing the G-Men has averaged six catches and 8.5 targets. Terry McLaurin struggled to be efficient, though that could have been more the result of Jayden Daniels’ second career start. The other three WR1s have all averaged at least 2.3 PPR points per target, highlighted by deep touchdown receptions by both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb.

We saw Smith fire four of his first eight passes on Monday night toward Metcalf, solidifying my thought that this offense, much like the Giants, wants to establish its best receiver and go from there. This season, he ranks fifth in total air yards, a role that carries tremendous upside given his physical tools, and the quality of those downfield opportunities is helped by Walker threatening defense on the ground.

He might be chalky in the DFS streets this week, but that’s why you have an entire roster – you can differentiate elsewhere. Metcalf is my WR7 this week, and I think there is a real path for him to lead the position in scoring on this slate.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Fantasy Outlook

There are few receivers that will post a four-game run like what JSN has done to start this season.

• Week 1 vs. Broncos: two targets
• Week 2 at Patriots: 16 targets
• Week 3 vs. Dolphins: three targets
• Week 4 at Lions: 12 targets

So … which is it? Is he one of the game’s finest target earners or is he an afterthought?

The fact that the question needs to be asked skews in favor of the latter more than the former, but I think it’s safe to say that the truth is somewhere in the middle. Smith-Njigba has just one top-30 performance this season, but I do think he has a chance to double that total in a matchup against the Giants, the owners of the third-lowest opponent aDOT when targeting receivers (8.4 yards).

We are 21 games into JSN’s career, and while we have been teased on occasion with vertical routes, his ability to win quickly is currently his greatest asset (7.0 career aDOT with a 76.3% catch rate on balls thrown less than 10 yards downfield).

He’s a fine Flex play in this matchup, ranking in the same tier as the chain mover on the other sideline in Wan’Dale Robinson – their mean projections are eerily close to one another, though there is no denying that the wider range of plausible outcomes certainly sits with Smith-Njigba.

Tyler Lockett Fantasy Outlook

The veteran receiver remains heavily involved (at least seven targets in three of four games this season), but without a touchdown or a 30-yard gain on his ledger, Lockett is firmly off of my Flex radar. Supporting three receivers and a running back is a tall task for any offense, especially if they control the game at the level that the spread would suggest.

Lockett still has some juice, and I don’t doubt that he’ll make chunk plays now and again this season, but I’m going to struggle to ever get him inside of my top 40 (he’s finished outside of the top 40 on three occasions this season) given the depth at the position (he’s currently ranked in the same tier as Jerry Jeudy and Jordan Addison).

Noah Fant Fantasy Outlook

Fant only has one top-25 finish on his résumé this season, and the fact that a 4.6-point PPR week is possible in a game in which Smith threw 56 passes puts him off of my radar as far as tight end streamers go.

That’s hard to do. It’s easy to look for favorable matchups and simply plug in a tight end. Don’t.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• Spread: Steelers -2.5
• Total: 42.5
• Cowboys implied points: 20
• Steelers implied points: 22.5

Dak Prescott Fantasy Outlook

I don’t mean to nitpick, but in a game with a 55-yard touchdown pass and a completion percentage north of 81%, 16.7 fantasy points against the Giants on Thursday was underwhelming.

Prescott took what the defense was giving him, and while that’s not a bad thing for Dallas, fantasy managers need more aggression — aggression that I fear we might not see on a weekly basis given the limitations of his supporting cast outside of the great CeeDee Lamb.

New York put a cap on its defense and held Prescott to a 5.5 aDOT, this after three straight games of Dallas’ QB recording a rate of at least 8.5 yards. I was impressed with his ball placement on some of those in-breaking routes, which leaves him open for future upside in catch-and-run spots. But the fact that he was just 4 of 8 passing on third downs (18-19 otherwise) caught my eye.

Struggles in that department, obviously, kill drives and lower possession expectations. Prescott remains a fringe QB1 due to the Cowboys’ inability to move the ball on the ground. They led for seven of nine drives in Week 4 and couldn’t enforce their will (23 carries for 80 yards), but the upside is limited in a significant way.

Justin Fields Fantasy Outlook

Six weeks ago, Fields was viewed as an underdog to start a game in September, let alone finish a slate as fantasy’s top producer at the position like he did in Week 4 (312 passing yards with three total scores). I’m going to stop short of calling Arthur Smith a QB whisperer, but this month from Fields (70.6% complete with just one interception) is a résumé highlight.

He’s shown poise in the pocket and funneled 26% of his completions the way of his clear-cut top option in George Pickens. He’s checking every box right now, and that locks him into my top 10 in a matchup that no longer scares me.

Micah Parsons (high ankle sprain) and DeMarcus Lawrence (mid-foot sprain) figure to be sidelined for the majority of October, but at the very least, neither is going to be wreaking havoc on the Steelers this week. The impact of any player or two on a defensive unit is tough to quantify, but this defense has underwhelming metrics through four weeks as it is – missing two stars isn’t going to help.

Dallas’ pressure rate when blitzing:

• 2019: 44.4%
• 2020: 45.4%
• 2021: 45.7%
• 2022: 46.7%
• 2023: 49.2%
• 2024: 38.9%

It’s possible you added Fields for depth at the position and are now saddled with a tough decision. My answer is yes.

Yes, I’d play him over Patrick Mahomes.

It’s a tough click to make and could look dumb, but I follow the numbers and everything I’ve looked at leans the way of Fields.

What a world.

Rico Dowdle Fantasy Outlook

Rico Dowdle started the game for Dallas on Thursday and was handed the ball on the team’s first two snaps. It’s becoming more and more clear with each passing week that the Cowboys are seeing the same thing the fantasy community is: Dowdle is the top option in this backfield.

That said, even with them seemingly committing to him, Dowdle played 43-48% of the offensive snaps for a fourth straight game. I worry that our excitement around him is more context-based than anything; he looks far more explosive than Ezekiel Elliott and that has us wishing for fantasy numbers. But is he an impactful talent when compared to all other backs?

This season, the 26-year-old doesn’t have a carry gaining more than 10 yards (34 attempts) and has seen just two targets on 21 routes run during Dallas wins (his season reception numbers have been inflated by the two one-sided losses — 10 targets on 34 routes).

If we expect this team to operate with a lead more often than not, I’m not sold that Dowdle is the most versatile of options.

We can argue about his value moving forward, but I’d rather not go Dowdle’s direction in this spot against one of the best defenses in the game that also owns a ball-control offense. I’m penciling in a very similar stat line to what we saw last week (61 yards on 15 touches and zero touchdowns), and that’s not going to get it done in most situations.

Ezekiel Elliott Fantasy Outlook

We first saw Ezekiel Elliott last week on the third drive after Rico Dowdle already had four carries and Dallas had schemed up a run for CeeDee Lamb.

But this team ranked 11th in red zone pass rate last season (52.1%), a relatively low rank given their pass-centric playbook. That had us thinking that Elliott could have a 2023 Gus Edwards sort of season — not efficient, but fantasy viable due to the scoring equity.

Well, through one month, the Cowboys have dropped back to pass on 70% of their red-zone snaps this season, sapping Elliott of his one path to fantasy relevance.

Elliott’s snap shares in 2024 by week:

• Week 1 at Browns: 50%
• Week 2 vs. Saints: 39.4%
• Week 3 vs. Ravens: 20%
• Week 4 at Giants: 17.6%

You’re going to have to make difficult roster decisions as bye weeks come into effect, not to mention injuries piling up. You shouldn’t feel obligated to leave the light on for this veteran.

Najee Harris Fantasy Outlook

Harris’ status as a fantasy starter would be in serious question if not for the state of the running back position league-wide. He has just one finish better than RB28 this season and split 12 carries with Cordarrelle Patterson in the first half of Week 4 (Patterson out-gained him 43-5 on those attempts). He’s averaging a career-low in yards per carry after contact and has yet to score (he opened last season with five straight scoreless games).

But with bye weeks now in effect, do you really have a better option? Harris is averaging 19.8 touches per game and has a splash play (20+ yards) in three of four games. He was on the field for a season-high 69.1% snaps last week with Jaylen Warren sidelined, solidifying a role that, regardless of what you think about the player, is in the RB2 discussion this week.

After 20 running backs, I ran out of roles with which I felt reasonably comfortable, and that’s how Harris lands at RB21. When it comes to this matchup, I still have it graded as advantageous:

RB1s against Dallas

• Week 1: Jerome Ford (18.9 FP, RB10)
• Week 2: Alvin Kamara (44.0 FP, RB1)
• Week 3: Derrick Henry (30.4 FP, RB3)
• Week 4: Devin Singletary (4.8 FP, RB51)

It’s a matter of whether you think this Steelers offense is average. If you think it is better than the Giants, Harris’ touch projection is more than enough to rank him as a fine RB2 across all formats. If you’re down on this offense and believe Jaylen Warren is close to full strength, I’d understand the desire to look for other options. Though with four teams on a bye, the logistics of finding a replacement option aren’t going to be there in most instances.

Jaylen Warren Fantasy Outlook

Jaylen Warren entered the season at less than full strength, and the knee injury he suffered against the Chargers in Week 3 forced him to watch from the sidelines on Sunday for just his second career DNP.

Given the injuries that the Cowboys are facing and the conservative nature of the Steelers’ offense, there’s a world in which Warren, if active, can make the most of one of his touches. But we are in the business of predicting the most likely outcomes, and through that lens, Warren shouldn’t be on your Flex radar this week — regardless of the reporting around his health.

Under Arthur Smith this season, Warren’s snap share (35.4%) is down from his career average prior (40%), and his production compared to expectation (-8.5%) has followed the same pattern (1.4%).

The time hasn’t come yet, but there’s a real chance that Warren isn’t worth a roster spot. Pittsburgh has the Giants and Commanders sandwiching a Week 9 bye, but following that, the schedule stiffens (both Baltimore and Cleveland games, not to mention a Christmas showdown with Kansas City on three days of rest in what is Super Bowl week for most leagues). If his role isn’t extended by then, there’s no chance you’re calling his number with your season on the line.

CeeDee Lamb Fantasy Outlook

CeeDee Lamb continues to do what CeeDee Lamb does, and that is producing at a level that few have hopes of reaching. For the second time in three weeks, he cashed in a touchdown of 50+ yards, showing after-the-catch skills that seem impossible to slow for an entire 60 minutes.

• 2024: +14% over fantasy expectation, 1.99 points per target, 2.26 yards per route
• Career: +15.1% over fantasy expectation, 1.95 points per target, 2.30 yards per route

Let me be clear: Lamb is amazing. He might be the best in the game right now, but I think his current target map reflects more of a solid weekly option than it does someone with the potential to repeat his 1,749-yard, 12-touchdown season in 2023. On the left are his targets this season, and on the right is what his target diet looked like through four weeks.

Lamb has seen 7-10 targets in all four games this season — outside of his two long touchdown receptions, his 2024 résumé isn’t that of an overall WR1 (18-196-0). Of course, those big plays are a part of the profile, and you don’t have to apologize for them, but middle-of-the-field targets just don’t carry the same upside.

Lamb is elite, but I think it’s a long shot for him to return the type of value he did a year ago.

Brandin Cooks Fantasy Outlook

I’d hate to use the “F” word, but I’ll continue to say it.

Fading.

Come on, this is a family site. After posting a career low in yards per route run last season, the now 31-year-old receiver has done nothing this season to prove that 2023 was an outlier.

Receptions per route, 2024:

• Ferguson: 19%
• Lamb: 14.3%
• Dowdle: 16.4%
• Tolbert: 9.8%
• Cooks: 6.7%

Cooks’ name value has kept him on more fantasy football rosters than his production deems reasonable, and as lineup depth increases in importance, you’re going to have to feel comfortable parting ways; the time is coming.

Remember that all-out blitz that the Browns ran in Week 1, allowing Cooks to basically just win a race to the pylon? That means that 37% of his points have come on 0.7% of his routes run — not exactly a sustainable source of fantasy income.

George Pickens Fantasy Outlook

Even with Fields playing above the level we projected, it’s become clear that Pickens is going to have to sustain elite target-earning traits in order to be a viable fantasy starter. His metrics have been trending in the right direction over the past three weeks, and yet, during that run, he’s produced 20.8% below expectation.

The problem?

Pickens caught just 2 of 6 targets inside the opponents’ 30-yard line (78.3% catch rate elsewhere). We know that yardage is unlikely to be a calling card for anyone in Pittsburgh’s offense (even with 312 yards last week, Fields is still averaging just 207.5 yards through the air per game this season), making a lack of efficiency in scoring situations an issue that Pickens is going to have a tough time overcoming.

Across four weeks, the Cowboys have allowed at least 11.5 PPR points to a receiver six times, which came with a unit that was closer to full strength than the one they will trot out there this weekend. That’s encouraging and so is the fact that they allowed 17.8% of pass attempts inside the 30-yard line result in scores last season (22nd).

I’m cautiously optimistic on Pickens this week and have him ranked as a strong Flex play. Dallas has the type of offense that can require Pittsburgh’s offense to open up a bit. If that’s the case, there is top-20 upside in this profile. If not, a third finish this season outside of the top 40 at the position is well within the range of outcomes.

I’d be tempted to move on from Pickens if he has a nice week and you can sell him as a top-20 receiver — consistency is going to be an issue given the makeup of this team.

Jake Ferguson Fantasy Outlook

The big day is coming. Jake Ferguson has been solid in both of his games back to the lineup, and all the metrics like him to continue doing so moving forward. Across those two games, Dallas’ No. 2 option in the passing game has seen 27.7% of the team’s targets when he’s been on the field (71.1% snap share). He’s showcased versatility in the process with an 8.3 average depth of target rate in Week 3 and a 2.9 rate in Week 4.

Trey McBride’s efficiency and Isaiah Likely’s athleticism headline the talking points when discussing tight ends drafted in 2022, but it’s Ferguson who owns the edge over both of them in terms of career yards per route. Elite defenses have a way of making you beat them with less than your best. If Lamb is bracketed, we can project a third straight game with at least six receptions — that’s gold at the tight end position.

Pat Freiermuth Fantasy Outlook

That’s four straight top-15 finishes for Freiermuth, with the 5-57-1 line last week in Indianapolis easily being his best line of the season (his most catches, targets, yards, and his first score of 2024). That’s not to say he’s some rockstar or difference-maker at the position, but boring can be effective, especially at a position like tight end where simply having a pulse puts players on the radar.

Dallas is going to have to get creative on the defensive side of the ball to overcome their rash of injuries, something that, in my opinion, makes two things likely — 1) an increase in exotic blitzes and/or 2) the desire to prevent splash plays.

Both of those schemes put Freiermuth in a position to again provide enough production in PPR formats for managers to be satisfied. He’s caught all five of his targets this season when Fields is pressured (teammates: 55.6%) and he leads the team with 15 short receptions.

Pencil in Freiermuth for another 4-5 catches and 40-50 yards. Winning your matchups this season can be as much about not losing ground at the TE position as it is gaining ground — Freiermuth checks that box most weeks. I see no reason for that to change any time soon.

New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• Spread: Chiefs -5
• Total: 42.5
• Saints implied points: 18.8
• Chiefs implied points: 23.8

Derek Carr Fantasy Outlook

Carr is playing good football (72% completion rate and 8.2 yards per pass attempt), but his path to fantasy viability isn’t as simple as playing well.

Taysom Hill subbed in for him last week in goal-line situations, and Alvin Kamara has turned back the hands of time in the early going, two happenings that cut Carr’s upside out from underneath him. After a pair of top-six finishes to open the season, New Orleans’ signal caller has fantasy finishes of QB25 and QB29 to his name – that’s not going to work.

Only six teams have allowed fewer deep completions than the Chiefs this season (eight), and they own the seventh-best red-zone defense in the league. I’m trending toward not wanting to mess with a Chiefs matchup if I don’t have to – the defense is better than the league average and the offense isn’t putting points on the board at a rate that requires increased aggression from their opponents.

The Chiefs allow the second-most yards per RB target this season, so if you want to double down with a Carr/Kamara stack in DFS, that’s an option backed with logic – it’s logic that is accurate but will not be impacting how I build out my daily lineups.

Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Outlook

At what point do we ignore the name on the back of the jersey and focus on the raw production?

Mahomes hasn’t been a top-15 producer at the position in three straight weeks, and this doesn’t exactly profile as a bounce-back situation with the Saints owning the lowest opponent passer rating against (68.0; NFL average: 90.4).

If you manage your team like I do and refuse to roster multiple quarterbacks, I don’t think you need to panic and make a move. The Saints have allowed the second most yards per pass to the tight end position through four weeks (9.4), and that figures to be where Mahomes is leaning this week as his aging star at the position is seemingly the only skill player on this team that can stay on the field.

Mahomes did drop a dime to Xavier Worthy last week, snapping a 30-game run without a 50-yard touchdown pass, at least giving us a glimpse of what we think could be an impactful connection as this season wears on.

Mahomes is hovering around QB10 in my rankings, his lowest mark of the season, but I doubt I ever get to the point where I’ll consider him an auto-bench.

Alvin Kamara Fantasy Outlook

Early on, Week 4 looked like one of “those” weeks.

If you’ve rostered a Saint in recent years, you know exactly what I’m talking about — Taysom Hill. When you see him vulture a touchdown early, an eye roll is to be expected. When a second comes, I wouldn’t blame you for turning off the game.

I’ve been there.

But with nine targets and the Saints being on the field for 71 plays, Kamara was able to produce his third top-five finish at the position in the first month. I wasn’t thrilled about Hill’s usage, and Jamaal Williams even made a red-zone appearance. But at the end of the day, Kamara’s role continues to be a cheat code.

Rushing efficiency was my primary concern entering this season, but with a 15+ yard rush in all four contests (something only he, Lamar Jackson, and Jordan Mason have done), Kamara is masking some per-carry concerns with chunk gains.

The potential for the Chiefs to attempt to play slow and win the time of possession battle is a bit of a concern for me when nitpicking the very top of the RB board this week. But whether you want to rank Kamara as RB2, RB6, or RB10, you’re playing him. And you’re playing him with confidence in all formats due to his seemingly bulletproof set of responsibilities.

Kareem Hunt Fantasy Outlook

Well, that didn’t take long. Hunt touched the ball 16 times in his season debut, his highest opportunity count in 1,077 days, a clear indicator that he is positioned to lead this backfield for the foreseeable future.

Hunt wasn’t necessarily in peak form (his longest gain was just 10 yards), but he did pick up at least five yards on nine of his touches, and that’s appealing for an offense that no longer holds the elevated floor that it entered the season with.

Week 4 snap shares (at LAC):

• Hunt: 43.1%
• Samaje Perine: 41.4%
• Carson Steele: 19%

Perine was essentially a third-down specialist (on the field for 81.3% of third-down snaps), making it Hunt and Steele in a battle for the fantasy-relevant role. It’ll be interesting to see how the Chiefs’ pass rate over expectation adjusts sans Rice, but I expect it to regress a bit; with vacated targets in the short pass game, Hunt sneaks into my RB2 tier this week.

Carson Steele Fantasy Outlook

Steele was the casualty of Hunt’s assertion into the lineup, and that seems more likely than not to stick for as long as the veteran RB is healthy.

Steele has 30 touches this season and has two more fumbles (two) than gains of at least 10 yards. The Chiefs are always in win-now mode, and Hunt simply provides more stability for an offense that is losing pieces weekly.

If you have the luxury of keeping Steele through the Week 6 bye, I would as a way to get access to Andy Reid’s creativity. Yet, cutting ties is a reasonable action if your roster requires you to do so.

Chris Olave Fantasy Outlook

Remember that dud in the opener? Two targets. 11 yards. Remember that?

Olave has cleared 80 receiving yards in all three games since and ranks fourth at the position in yards per route over that stretch. The Saints have dialed back Olave’s downfield usage (his aDOT is down 27.3% from last season), and it’s resulted a spike in efficiency numbers across the board.

We all liked a top-15 pick from the 2022 draft to return Round 1 fantasy value this year — it’s possible we just had the wrong player pegged.

Rashid Shaheed Fantasy Outlook

Not all growth is linear. Shaheed has been a downfield threat since entering the league, and those highlights are what produce the ceiling games that we love from him. However, through four weeks, I’m more encouraged by the “how” his three top-25 performances have occurred.

This season, Shaheed’s target rate is higher when Carr is pressured (29%) than when not (25%), something that wasn’t even close to being true through two seasons (11.2% compared to 20.6%).

On Sunday, Shaheed earned a pair of end-zone targets inside the 10-yard line. For the season, his first-quarter on-field target share is 36.4%, a rate that is leaps and bounds ahead of his 22.4% number from a year ago.

Most teams have a burner that can threaten defenses vertically, but few teams have a player like Shaheed who own that trait while developing in this fashion. I have him ranked inside of my top 30 at the position this week — I think he’s a version of Pickens with more stability under center.

It’s early, but the deep passer rating allowed by the Chiefs is 41.7 points higher than it was a season ago.

Rashee Rice Fantasy Outlook

You hate to see it. Every injury hurts to watch, but a star receiver getting banged up while having to play defense following an interception is a different sort of pain.

We will see exactly where Rice’s status stands as the reporting gets ironed out, but it seems safe to rule him out for this week.

Rice’s usage, Weeks 1-3:

• 37.5% reception share
• 43.7% receiving yardage share

It had essentially been accepted that Rice had supplanted Travis Kelce as the go-to option in Kansas City’s offense, making this a big blow that the Chiefs aren’t exactly built to withstand due to injuries to Hollywood Brown and Isiah Pacheco. Let’s take a look at the other options on this roster and see what they offer from a fantasy perspective.

Xavier Worthy Fantasy Outlook

I understand the desire to vault Worthy up your rest of season rankings, but with limited defensive attention, he’s managed to earn just 15 targets on 104 routes (14.4%, a rate that ranks behind Jonathan Mingo and Chris Conley this season).

That’s not to say Worthy can’t succeed. He very obviously can make the most of low usage (his first target last week resulted in a 54-yard touchdown, all of which were yards gained in the air), but the ability to win targets is only going to get more difficult without Rice attracting attention.

Worthy has seen an end-zone target in three of four games this season, but in a tough matchup, I have him sitting just outside of my top 30 at the position. He’s not the deep-ball-oriented receiver in this game I have ranked highest, and he falls below the boredom line (Wan’Dale Robinson and Khalil Shakir own elevated floors that I prefer in Week 5).

Justin Watson Fantasy Outlook

The route counts from Week 4 might not prove to be exactly how Kansas City goes about replacing Rice, but they are data points that should be acknowledged, as it was how the team elected to adapt on the fly.

Routes run in Week 4:

• Travis Kelce: 32
• Xavier Worthy: 29
• Justin Watson: 25
• JuJu Smith-Schuster: 18
• Noah Gray: 11
• Mecole Hardman: 7
• Skyy Moore: 4

When the Chiefs wanted a slot option next to Kelce, Smith-Schuster was the play (10 slot routes), while Watson got the nod when a perimeter threat was wanted (16 routes out wide). I like Watson to be on the field, which makes him roster worthy. That said, you can’t consider starting him until we get some proof of concept.

Watson has reached double digits in terms of PPR points just once in 10 career games in which he has played at least 65% of snaps (Week 4: 69% snap share). Forecasting him to do so against a Saints defense that has allowed just one touchdown toss on 165 opponent dropbacks this season isn’t wise.

Cheap exposure to a piece tied to Mahomes is a logical desire; I’d just caution against putting the cart before the horse.

Taysom Hill Fantasy Outlook

You missed it.

We get a few Hill weeks per season and that is why he’s a best ball asset. It’s also why he is a redraft headache — there was no writing on the wall to suggest that this explosion was coming.

• 14.4 fantasy points
• 15 offensive snaps

His production typically comes in one of two ways, and neither is predictable on our end. Either it’s a matchup that the coaching staff flags or the Saints happen to see a higher-than-usual number of snaps inside the 10-yard line.

I think last week was the latter and that was a buzzkill for those of us with Derek Carr exposure in DFS. Hill sat out Week 3 with what was reported to be a bruised lung and it’s easy to connect the dots for Sunday’s chest injury potentially being connected.

Hill didn’t come out of the locker room in Week 4 and he simply isn’t worth waiting on this week given the inconsistency of his role, even when healthy (7.5 PPR points before last week). I’ll give you the green light to cut ties with Hill if you need the roster spot with the injuries league-wide piling up and bye weeks now a moving piece to consider.

If you have an IR slot in your league, I’d take the temperature of your league — someone may give you a healthy body for him, as they can stash him without the cost of a lineup spot. I’d pull the trigger on a deal like that for any handcuff running back or viable WR3 — in essence, any player that is an injury away from true Flex consideration, as I think it’s more likely than not that you’re chasing this past week of production with Hill.

Travis Kelce Fantasy Outlook

To the surprise of no one, Kelce saw his usage spike after Rice departed (first half: 37.5% target and 45.5% reception share). Of course, banking on a soon-to-be-35-year-old (birthday: Saturday) to handle a role like that for an extended period is overly optimistic, but could he do it for 60 minutes on Monday night with a bye week coming next week?

I think it’s possible. Kelce’s stock is higher today than it was this time last week, and that’s good news given the price you paid for him this summer. We will see how long he is asked to carry a heavier workload and if his body can handle it, but in the scope of Week 5, embrace it.