The Vanderbilt Commodores won their regular season finale against the Tennessee Volunteers by a score of 45-24. What are the updates to the Commodores’ CFB Playoff hopes? It’s still a long shot, but Clark Lea’s squad helped themselves in Week 14.
Vanderbilt Improves CFB Playoff Chances vs. Tennessee, but Still Faces Long-shot Odds
Vanderbilt needed to win against Tennessee to sustain whatever CFB Playoff hopes they had entering the week. It may have been too little too late, but Diego Pavia and Co. took care of business against the 19th-ranked Volunteers, coming out on top by three touchdowns.
Before Vanderbilt’s win against Tennessee, the Commodores only had an 8.3% chance of making the CFB Playoffs, according to the PFSN College Football Playoff Meter. After the win, their CFB Playoff chances have increased to 18.7%.
The Commodores did everything they could to maximize their CFB Playoff positioning. The only problem is, they haven’t gotten the help they needed from other teams in the field.
As of this writing, only one team ranked ahead of Vanderbilt — Texas A&M — has lost in Week 14, and the Aggies will make the CFB Playoffs no matter what. Alabama and Notre Dame have yet to finish their games, but both are favored to win.
Several bubble teams ahead of Vanderbilt — Utah, Miami, and BYU — have already won in Week 14, and Oklahoma also pulled out a close win over LSU, securing their CFB Playoff standing.
Additionally, Texas’ win against Texas A&M could help the Longhorns if Texas and Vanderbilt clash for a final spot — especially with Texas’ head-to-head win over Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt ended the season with an overall record of 10-2, and a 6-2 record within the SEC. The Commodores’ Week 14 victory over Tennessee ended up being their best win of the season, while losses to Alabama and Texas ultimately pushed them to the CFB fringe.
All things considered, simply being in the CFB Playoff conversation is a massive win for Vanderbilt — a program that was 2-10 as recently as 2023. The Commodores’ turnaround under Lea has been incredible, and in spite of the losses, Vanderbilt truly competed against both Texas and Alabama.
There’s still work to be done, and replacing Pavia at quarterback will be one of the key issues of the 2026 offseason, but Vanderbilt has a high-profile bowl game to look forward to if they miss the CFB Playoffs, and they’ll be in position to chase redemption in 2026.