Heading into Week 9, no Group of Six team had a better shot at making the College Football Playoff (CFP) than the USF Bulls. Through seven games, USF stood at 6-1 and was in a prime position to at least reach the American Conference Championship Game.
However, the Bulls were stunned by Memphis in a 34-31 loss on Saturday. The defeat drastically weakened USF’s playoff hopes. Here’s how the loss reshaped the outlook for the Bulls’ season.
Can USF Recover After Its Crushing Loss to Memphis?
Not only did USF lose to Memphis on Saturday, but they did so in heartbreaking fashion, missing a game-tying field goal as time expired to give the Tigers the win.
Seven games into the season, USF appeared firmly in control of the Group of Six race for a CFP spot. Their only loss came against Miami, and they’d already recorded impressive wins over Florida, North Texas, and Boise State.
MEMPHIS COMPLETES THE RALLY‼️
The Tigers beat No. 18 USF after a missed field goal in the final seconds 😱 pic.twitter.com/ZMG9H0Lg7z
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 25, 2025
However, the loss to Memphis dealt a significant blow to those hopes. Heading into the game, USF held a 24.3% chance to make the Playoff, according to PFSN’s CFB Playoff Meter. After the defeat, that number plummeted to 14.2%.
Not only did the loss hurt the Bulls’ CFP hopes, but falling to an American Conference opponent also damaged their chances of reaching the conference championship game.
Before the Memphis game, USF had a 54.2% chance to make the American Conference Championship, but after the loss, that number dropped to just 36%.
Overall, the loss to the Tigers stalled much of the momentum USF had built heading into Week 9.
With Tulane and Navy both undefeated in American Conference play, and Memphis now holding the head-to-head tiebreaker, USF faces an uphill battle to reach the conference championship, which they’ll likely need to do to keep any CFP hopes alive.
The good news for the Bulls is that they still partially control their destiny. In their final four games, the Bulls take on UTSA, Navy, UAB, and Rice. If they can win out, there’s a strong chance they’ll remain in contention for a spot in the conference championship.
USF’s loss to Memphis shows just how volatile college football can be. One defeat can derail an entire season and completely shift the balance of a conference.
The Bulls and head coach Alex Golesh will have a bye in Week 10, giving them a chance to regroup after the loss and prepare for the season’s final stretch. Still, the defeat casts a bleak outlook for the rest of 2025 in South Florida.
