Boise State and UNLV are set for a third consecutive title showdown, a rivalry defined by advanced metrics, sustained momentum, and the bizarre fallout of a four-way 6-2 conference logjam that left computers to sort out the contenders.
UNLV emerged on top of the tiebreaker ladder, but Boise State’s 56-31 victory in their October meeting secured home-field advantage and set the stage for a potential third straight championship, a seventh overall crown, and another entry in a decade-long stretch of dominance.
The UNLV vs. Boise State prediction centers on whether this revamped Rebels squad can finally flip the script, coming in with 10 wins under first-year coach Dan Mullen, a four-game winning streak, and one of the most dangerous road profiles in the country.
UNLV heads into Boise carrying real belief and edge, intent on proving that this version of the Rebels is built to challenge the Broncos’ grip on the conference rather than simply add to their highlight reel
UNLV vs. Boise State Details
- Date: Friday, Dec. 5, 2025
- Game time: 5:00 p.m. PT
- Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
- Predicted Weather at Kick: 48°F, cloudy with rain
- How to watch: FOX
UNLV vs. Boise State Head-to-Head Record
History warns that regular-season victories don’t guarantee championship glory, with past winners going just 3-4 in Mountain West rematch finals. The Broncos have lived this loop more than anyone, appearing in six of those games and holding a 3-2 edge when they’ve taken the first meeting.
The Boise State and UNLV lore is long, with the Broncos owning a 16-3 series lead and a 10-game streak that stretches back to America’s Bicentennial. Boise State has never lost to the Rebels at Albertsons Stadium and has dominated the Mountain West era with an average victory margin of more than 21 points, save for last year’s rare one-score thriller.
These teams have met five times in just 25 months, yet their roots run deeper, linked by former head coach Tony Knap, who once left each program as its all-time wins leader and stitched an unlikely thread between two rivals still writing new chapters.
UNLV vs. Boise State Grades
Below are the PFSN team and positional grades for the highest-ranked players set to be featured in UNLV vs. Boise State.
- UNLV (78.7, C+)
- Boise State (75.7, C)
PFSN College DEFi
- UNLV (68.1, D+)
- Boise State (78.6, C+)
PFSN College OLi
- UNLV (70.1, C-)
- Boise State (78.5, C+)
PFSN College QBi
- Anthony Colandrea, UNLV (87.9, B+)
- Maddux Madsen, Boise State (79.4, C+)
PFSN College RBi
- Jai’Den Thomas, UNLV (79.0, C+)
- Sire Gaines, Boise State (75.4, C)
PFSN College WRi
- Jayden Bradley, UNLV (76.4, C)
- Chase Penry, Boise State (72.8, C-)
PFSN College TEi
- Nick Elksnis, UNLV (70.6, C-)
- Matt Lauter, Boise State (76.3, C)
PFSN College EDGEi
- Tunmise Adeleye, UNLV (71.0, C-)
- Jayden Virgin-Morgan, Boise State (73.3, C)
PFSN College DTi
- Lucas Conti, UNLV (73.9, C)
- Braxton Fely, Boise State (75.4, C)
PFSN College LBi
- Marsel McDuffie, UNLV (69.6, D+)
- Marco Notarainni, Boise State (70.0, C-)
PFSN College CBi
- Quandarius Keyes, UNLV (81.5, B-)
- Jeremiah Earby, Boise State (82.2, B- )
PFSN College SAFi
- Aamaris Brown, UNLV (82.9, B-)
- Ty Benefield, Boise State (80.2, B-)
UNLV vs. Boise State Prediction
For the third straight year, UNLV and Boise State are playing for the Mountain West title. The Broncos are going for a three-peat, but it’s a toss-up coming into the game. We ran this game 50,000 times in PFSN’s FREE College Football Playoff Predictor – UNLV won 50.4% of them.
In the words of lyricist Big Sean, “three stories, this (game) a trilogy.” With rain in the forecast and history stacked in layers beneath the blue turf, this feels like the moment UNLV puts a cherry on the season.
The Rebels bring the better quarterback, the hotter streak, and a road résumé built for chaos. Still, Boise State’s defensive edge, home-field mystique, and championship muscle memory carry real weight in a rematch where the regular-season winner doesn’t always cash the ticket.
Expect UNLV to land punches early behind Colandrea, a necessity given the Broncos’ balance and late-game poise. Mullen has definitely cooked up something special in Sin City, and that magic clearly travels well…Rebs by a score.
Prediction: UNLV, 27 Boise State, 21
