The 2026 season is being viewed as the all-in year for Steve Sarkisian’s journey at Texas. A major reason is that the 2026 Longhorns are expected to have one of the most talented rosters in the country, particularly on offense, featuring Arch Manning.
How Texas’ 2026 Playoff Performance Could Impact Steve Sarkisian’s Future
Josh Pate, On3 college football analyst, joined “Crain & Cone” on Wednesday to discuss several coaches who could be under pressure in the 2026 season, and he floated Sarkisian’s name.
“I think Steve Sarkisian’s there, too,” Pate said. “Cuz it’s one thing to be at Texas and to have your team in the playoff conversation. When you do what Ohio State did two years ago, and you really just put all your cards on the table or you push all the chips to the middle of the table, and you go all in, and you’ve recruited Arch Manning, and a couple of years later, now this is his time. They overhauled their tailback room last year, like they would have had returning starters, and they said they were not good enough, and they went and got the top two out of the portal. They’re loaded everywhere.
“If they’re a 9-3 team, 10-2, team that kind of gets bounced in the playoffs and maybe goes to Atlanta, maybe doesn’t go to Atlanta, that’s just not good enough there. And that’s not job security. That’s not going to get Sark out of town. But that’s getting to the point, if that’s the outcome this year, where you look around, and you say, ‘If we didn’t do it this year, are we just never going to do it under him?’ I think that’ll be a fair look.”
Manning, who is regarded as a potential No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, struggled initially in the 2025 season but closed the year strong, entering 2026 with Heisman-level hype. With 15 career starts under his belt heading into the next season, expectations for his performance are at an all-time high.
Sarkisian has leveraged the transfer portal to surround Manning with top-tier talent, including Cam Coleman from Auburn and Hollywood Smothers from NC State, while the receiving corps features former five-star recruits like Ryan Wingo. The defense also has elite players, including edge rusher Colin Simmons and defensive back Graceson Littleton.
For all these reasons, the 2026 season will be the dividing line for Sarkisian’s legacy at Texas: either establishing the program among the nation’s elite or raising doubts about his ability to win the big games. However, Sarkisian’s job security is backed by a massive contract extension signed in early 2025, which extends through the 2031 season.
PFSN currently gives Texas a 66.4% chance to make the College Football Playoff in 2026, a 15.4% chance to reach the National Championship, and a 7.7% chance of winning the title.
