Entering Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the Oregon Ducks could look forward to a postseason appearance, but whether or not they earned a shot at a conference title remained to be seen. Sadly, the answer to that question came sooner than they had hoped.
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Oregon’s chances of making it to the Big Ten Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Oregon’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gave Oregon a 19.9% chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship game entering Week 14. They won their final game of the season against the Washington Huskies, ending the regular season with an 11-1 record and an 8-1 conference record.
That percentage chance to reach the title game relied on them beating out the Huskies, while other results needed to fall in line, mainly the Ohio State Buckeyes losing to the Michigan Wolverines. With the Ducks losing to Indiana earlier in the year, a loss for the Hoosiers wouldn’t be enough — and Curt Cignetti’s team already demolished Purdue on Black Friday.
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Sadly for the Ducks, not long before the start of their matchup with Washington, Ohio State completed its demolition job on Michigan, sealing Oregon’s Big Ten Championship Game fate. Nonetheless, Dan Lanning’s team still had plenty to play for during their game against Washington and took care of business.
What are Oregon’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team. With the Big Ten Championship Game no longer possible, Oregon will need to reach the 12-team postseason tournament as an At-Large bid.
Despite this, the PFSN College FPM gives Oregon a 100% chance of making the College Football Playoff.
Oregon is currently ranked sixth in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. They’re safely within At-Large territory, and though a loss to Washington would complicate things, they should still be able to sneak in after beating USC and playing Indiana close.
Our simulations also give Oregon a 29.3% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 14.9% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 7.2% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
