Entering Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the Ole Miss Rebels were in contention to play at the SEC Championship Game — but their fate isn’t entirely in their hands as the SEC title race goes down to the wire. After beating Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl, what does the Rebels’ postseason projection look like?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Ole Miss’ chances of making it to the SEC Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Ole Miss’ SEC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Ole Miss a 25.4% chance of playing in the SEC Championship game after beating their bitter rival in a fractious edition of the Egg Bowl.
Lane Kiffin has led his Ole Miss team to a strong one-loss record in the 2025 season, but the Rebels have also greatly benefited from a relatively poor conference schedule.
Six of the seven conference teams Ole Miss has beaten have losing records in SEC play, with Ole Miss’ only ranked conference win coming against Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the Rebels have a head-to-head loss against Georgia that leaves them in the fourth and final contending spot for the SEC Championship.
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The only way Ole Miss makes the SEC Championship Game is if both Texas A&M and Alabama lose. If that outcome comes to fruition, Ole Miss beats out two-loss Alabama outright and gets the edge on Texas A&M courtesy of opposing conference winning percentage.
In any other scenario, Ole Miss is out of the SEC Championship — but they’re still likely to be in the CFB Playoff either way.
What are Ole Miss’ Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team. Ole Miss can make the CFB Playoff through both avenues.
The PFSN College FPM gives Ole Miss a 100% chance of making the College Football Playoff, and an 11.1% chance of winning the SEC Championship. That leaves a 88.9% chance that the Rebels will earn an At-Large bid.
Ole Miss is currently ranked seventh in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. They overcame a potential trap game — rivalries are never easy — and now they have to sit back and wait for the rest of the relevant SEC games to unfold.
Nevertheless, Ole Miss’ resume — while not without its warts — is still strong enough to field CFB Playoff consideration, regardless. Their loss to Georgia was by just eight points, and they also have a win against CFB Playoff contender Oklahoma, and a blowout win against Tulane, the Group of Five’s potential Playoff representative.
After Ole Miss took care of business against Mississippi State, they’re essentially guaranteed to be in the CFB Playoffs, no matter how the SEC Championship dominoes fall.
Our simulations also give Ole Miss a 32.0% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 13.9% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 6.3% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
