Following Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the Ole Miss Rebels are projected to be in the CFB Playoff field. Where do they stand in the 12-team bracket, and can they compete for a National Championship?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Ole Miss’ chances of playing in the CFB Playoff.
What are Ole Miss’ CFB Playoff Chances?
The PFSN College FPM gives Ole Miss a 100% chance of making the College Football Playoff. Ole Miss is currently ranked 6th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings, sitting at 11-1 overall and 7-1 in conference play.
The Ole Miss Rebels have been in the news a lot lately, and all for reasons they’d prefer not to be. Former head coach Lane Kiffin unceremoniously left for LSU shortly after Ole Miss’ Egg Bowl victory over Mississippi State.
The resulting fallout featured a chaotic war of clashing accounts between Kiffin, the Rebels’ athletic director, current players, and former players, and though the dust has now settled, the Rebels are left without a coach and without cohesion with the CFB Playoffs growing near.
That is, unless long-time Rebels defensive coordinator Pete Golding has something to say about it.
Named the interim head coach in Kiffin’s stead, Golding canceled his introductory press conference to help himself, his coaches, and the players focus on the upcoming CFB Playoffs, and it’s clear that this Rebels squad now has a chip on its shoulder after Kiffin’s departure.
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The Rebels want to prove that their success was not all Kiffin’s doing, and they’ll assuredly get their chance. Ole Miss is locked into the CFB Playoff field after a strong 11-1 season headlined by a win against top-ten SEC opponent Oklahoma, and a close loss to Playoff favorite Georgia.
Trinidad Chambliss has been a revelation at quarterback for the Rebels after transferring over from Ferris State — where he won the Division II MVP trophy in 2025 — and Kewan Lacy is a star in the making alongside him. Meanwhile, the Rebels’ defense has been a quality unit, allowing just over 20 points per game.
By current projections, Ole Miss — as the 6-seed — has over a 46% chance of drawing Virginia as the 11-seed in the first round. If Virginia loses to Duke in the ACC Championship, however, Ole Miss will play one of Tulane, Alabama, Miami, or North Texas — depending on what happens in the American Conference Championship.
Ole Miss already has a head-to-head victory over Tulane; they beat the Green Wave 45-10 back in September. Alabama and Miami, however, will be more difficult draws, and North Texas also brings upset potential with Drew Mestemaker at QB.
Our simulations give Ole Miss a 26% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 11.7% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 5.7% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
