Entering Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the Ohio State Buckeyes are in position to make the Big Ten Championship — but there’s still one more hurdle they need to pass before they can claim a spot in the big game.
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Ohio State’s chances of making it to the Big Ten Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Ohio State’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Ohio State a 77.4% chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship game. Their remaining conference game is a home contest against bitter rival Michigan (9-2, 7-1). The CFB FPM gives them a 68.3% chance of winning that game.
The Buckeyes are in a purely binary situation. If they win against Michigan, they’re in the Big Ten Championship game. If they lose against Michigan, they’re likely out.
There was a scenario entering Week 14 where Ohio State remained in the Big Ten Championship if Michigan won, with both Indiana and Oregon losing. That would have placed Ohio State over Indiana with the common opponents tiebreaker, but with the Hoosiers taking care of business on Friday night, that is now out the window.
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The stakes are high for an Ohio State team that lost to Michigan in the final week of the 2024 season and ended up missing the Big Ten Championship as a result — but there’s an argument to make that this Buckeyes squad is even stronger than the one that won the National Championship a year ago.
Chaos awaits if Ohio State drops the ball against the Wolverines, and Michigan won’t make it easy playing in Ann Arbor — but with a win, the Buckeyes can put all of the speculation to rest.
What are Ohio State’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team. No matter what happens, Ohio State will be in the CFB Playoffs through either of those two avenues.
The PFSN College FPM gives Ohio State a 100% chance of making the College Football Playoff, and a 43.6% chance of winning the Big Ten Championship. That leaves a 56.4% chance of Ohio State being an At-Large bid.
Ohio State is currently ranked first overall in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. They’ve had a relatively easy schedule to this point, but they’ve dominated with an average margin of victory of over 30 points.
There is merit to the argument that Ohio State has enjoyed relatively smooth sailing since their Texas win that was also affected by Arch Manning’s poor early-season play, and there’s a chance Michigan could shell-shock them early — but Ohio State’s firepower on both sides of the ball could also simply be too much to handle.
Our simulations also give Ohio State a 62.9% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 38.9% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 22.3% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.