Saturday’s showdown between North Texas and Navy in Denton brings together two programs defined by contrasting football philosophies.
The Midshipmen, traveling to face the Mean Green for the first time since 2007, arrive with a perfect 7–0 record and one of the nation’s most dominant rushing attacks. North Texas, meanwhile, boasts a 6-1 mark and a high-powered passing game led by breakout quarterback Drew Mestemaker, coming off a decisive win over Charlotte.
With implications for Group of Five playoff positioning, the game is set to be a pivotal clash. The Navy vs. North Texas prediction provides essential details, historical context, and exclusive PFSN player evaluations and team ratings for this must-watch showdown.
Navy vs. North Texas Details
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025
- Game time:Â 12 p.m. EST
- Location: DATCU Stadium | Denton, TX
- Predicted weather at kick: 68 degrees, a little cloudy, SSE 7 mph winds
- How to watch:Â ESPN2
Navy vs. North Texas Head-to-Head Record
The football series between the Navy Midshipmen and the North Texas Mean Green has featured just two meetings, with Navy holding a 2–0 advantage. The first clash, on November 10, 2007, in Denton, Texas, became legendary as Navy defeated North Texas 74-62 in what was then the highest-scoring regulation game in FBS history, combining for 136 points.
The second meeting occurred on October 7, 2023, when Navy again emerged victorious, this time by a much narrower 27-24 margin. These two games, one an offensive explosion, the other a tightly contested battle, highlight the evolution of both programs and set the stage for the Navy vs. North Texas prediction as the teams prepare for another pivotal showdown.
Navy vs. North Texas Grades
- Navy: 85.9 (B)
- North Texas: 82.3 (B-)
- Navy: 69.7 (D+)
- North Texas: 76.1 (C)
- Navy: 76.8 (C)
- North Texas: 78.4 (C+)
- Navy: Blake Horvath 79.7 (C+)
- North Texas: Drew Mestemaker 80.4 (B-)
- Navy: Brandon Chatman 79.2 (C+)
- North Texas: Caleb Hawkins 79.3 (C+)
- Navy: Eli Heidenreich RB/WR 76.2 (C)
- North Texas: Wyatt Young 81.2 (B-)
- Navy: Cody Howard 79.6 (C+)
- North Texas: Tre Williams 75.3 (C)
- Navy: Adam Klenk 72.2 (C-)
- North Texas: Zhaiylen Scott 73.9 (C)
- Navy: Landon Robinson 82.1 (B-)
- North Texas: Saadiq Clements 69.2 (D+)
- Navy: MarcAnthony Parker 71 (C-)
- North Texas: Trey Fields 78.5 (C+)
Navy vs. North Texas Prediction
Navy enters its first trip to North Texas since 2007, riding a 7–0 record and a ten-game winning streak that stretches back to last season. The Midshipmen have been dominant on the ground, averaging 318.1 rushing yards per game, which leads the nation.
Their offensive identity revolves around clock control and relentless option execution, allowing them to dictate tempo and wear down opposing defenses. In the red zone, Navy has been highly efficient, converting 26 touchdowns on 32 trips, an 81.3 percent success rate.
Defensively, they’ve been one of the most disciplined teams in college football, surrendering just 2.7 tackles for loss per game, tied for second-fewest in the FBS. The team’s depth and composure reflect the experience of a program that has found its rhythm, and with 20 players from Texas on the roster, they’ll have a measure of home-state familiarity when they take the field in Denton.
North Texas, on the other hand, presents a high-octane challenge. The Mean Green boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the country, averaging 46.1 points and nearly 500 total yards per game, with 317.6 of those yards coming through the air.
Their redshirt freshman quarterback, Drew Mestemaker, has been a breakout performer, leading an attack that can strike quickly and from anywhere on the field.
Yet, despite the offense’s dynamism, the defense remains its Achilles’ heel. North Texas allows roughly 25 points per game, ranking in the bottom half of the FBS, and that number rises to around 29 on the road. Their defensive front has struggled to contain physical running teams, which could be a problem against Navy’s methodical ground game.
The matchup, therefore, feels like a clash of identities: Navy’s ball-control discipline against North Texas’s offensive fireworks.
If Navy can establish its rushing rhythm early, it will limit North Texas’s possessions and keep the Mean Green’s fast-paced offense on the sideline. Conversely, if North Texas can force Navy into early passing situations or generate turnovers, the game could tilt toward a shootout similar to their 2007 meeting.
Playing at home gives North Texas a small advantage in energy and familiarity, but Navy’s efficiency and defensive consistency may neutralize that edge over four quarters.
Overall, this contest should be competitive and entertaining, but Navy’s ground dominance and situational execution give them a slight upper hand. Mestemaker’s inexperience might be a deciding factor, while Blake Horvath is a veteran leader who has been there and done that.
Expect the Midshipmen to control time of possession and grind out a close win. A reasonable prediction would be Navy to come out on top in a narrow victory over North Texas. With Navy’s ability to sustain long drives and limit explosive plays, expect this to be the difference in a tightly contested matchup.
Prediction: Navy 31, North Texas 27
