For weeks, speculation has surrounded the future of Oklahoma starting quarterback John Mateer and whether he might declare early for the NFL Draft following the 2025 season. Now, a key development has begun to provide clarity.
Backup quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr.’s decision to enter the transfer portal appears to signal that Mateer might be trending toward returning to Norman for the 2026 season.
John Mateer’s Future Seems Clearer
With George Stoia, who covers OU football for @SoonerScoop & @On3sports, saying this on Twitter after Pete Thamel broke the news about Hawkins: “Hawkins will garner a lot of interest. He can start for a lot of places. This likely indicates John Mateer is back for the #Sooners.”
Hawkins will garner a lot of interest. He can start for a lot of places.
This likely indicates John Mateer is back for the #Sooners. https://t.co/jVm11Q44UY
— George Stoia III (@GeorgeStoia) December 31, 2025
Hawkins’ portal move is telling. Programs rarely lose a capable backup quarterback unless there is a strong belief internally that the starter’s role is firmly occupied. In this case, it strongly suggests Oklahoma expects Mateer to remain the face of the offense moving forward for the 2026 season. For Mateer, that potential decision looks increasingly like the smart and strategic choice.
The 2025 season was a tale of toughness and perseverance for Mateer. After starting the year playing at a near–Heisman Trophy level, he suffered a midseason injury that noticeably affected his performance. Despite that setback, Mateer refused to come off the field, battling through pain and continuing to lead the Sooners. While his production dipped, his toughness never wavered, a trait that resonated with teammates, coaches, and scouts alike.
Even with a banged-up quarterback under center, Oklahoma still won 10 games and earned a College Football Playoff berth. That accomplishment alone speaks volumes about the program’s foundation and its ceiling. The defense carried much of the load down the stretch, finishing with the third-highest PFSN defensive impact grade in the nation at an elite 96.4. If that defensive core returns intact and Mateer is fully healthy, Oklahoma’s championship outlook becomes even more dangerous.
Can Mateer Bounceback for the Sooners?
From an individual standpoint, another season could significantly boost Mateer’s draft stock. In 2024, he posted an 81.3 PFSN impact grade, ranking as the 16th-best quarterback in the country. That number slipped to 78.6 this season as injuries limited his effectiveness. A return to full health and a resurgence to his earlier form would not only elevate Oklahoma’s offense but also reinsert Mateer into national award conversations.
There were flashes late in the year that hinted at exactly that. In Oklahoma’s first-round playoff loss to Alabama, Mateer looked noticeably more comfortable, especially throwing the football. He finished the game with 307 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and an additional rushing score, showcasing the dual-threat ability that once had him squarely in the Heisman discussion. His hand appeared closer to full strength, and the confidence was evident.
If that version of John Mateer is what Oklahoma gets in 2026, the Sooners will be a nightmare matchup across the country. Pairing an elite defense with a healthy, experienced quarterback who has already played on the sport’s biggest stage could make Oklahoma a legitimate national title contender once again.
Michael Hawkins Jr.’s transfer may seem like a small move on the surface, but its implications are significant. All signs now point toward Mateer running it back for one more season in Norman, one more opportunity to chase a championship, rebuild his draft profile, and perhaps finally make that long-anticipated trip to New York as a Heisman finalist. If that decision becomes official, Oklahoma’s future just got a whole lot clearer, and scarier for the rest of college football.
