Brian Kelly and the LSU Tigers are on the ropes after losing their second game of the season last weekend. Following a tough defeat against No. 17 Vanderbilt, the once 10th-ranked Tigers have tumbled to 20th in the AP Top 25 Poll, and their season is heading in the wrong direction.
Now sitting at 5-2, LSU will likely miss the College Football Playoffs under its high-profile head coach for another year. According to PFSN’s playoff meter, the Tigers currently have just a 14% chance of reaching the postseason. That number, however, could plummet to zero this weekend.
Can Brian Kelly Save LSU’s Playoff Hopes Against a Top-Ranked Opponent?
After another ranked loss within the SEC, Kelly and LSU risk falling out of the Top 25 completely with another defeat. The challenge ahead is monumental: a showdown with the undefeated, No. 3-ranked Texas A&M Aggies, who come to town with a perfect 7-0 record. ESPN’s Paul Finebaum discussed the massive implications of the clash.
“This is not the most critical game of the year. This game could knock him out of the playoffs. And remember, we were talking about CFP or bust for Kelly. But it’s also an opportunity to beat a Top 3 team in front of a disgruntled fanbase,” Finebaum suggested.
The matchup pits one of the SEC’s lowest-ranked teams against its highest. Everything is on the line for the Tigers, including their slim playoff hopes, a long-shot at a National Championship, and potentially, Coach Kelly’s job security heading into Week 9.
Despite the outside pressure, Kelly projected confidence during his press conference before the game.
“Our guys are certainly in a position now to do something great here at Tiger Stadium, and that is to go beat the No. 3 team in the country, so our focus is squarely on doing that for four quarters,” Kelly shared.
Everything LSU football’s HC said in preview of matchup against Texas A&M https://t.co/2Rg29EdDWJ pic.twitter.com/eyLigA21P5
— Aggies Wire (@AggiesWire) October 22, 2025
This weekend’s clash is set to be a defensive battle. According to PFSN’s Defense Impact Metrics, both teams boast top-tier defenses. The Tigers currently rank 27th in the nation, while the Aggies sit in the top 20 at 13th overall.
However, despite the stakes, Finebaum suggested that this single game won’t be the one that decides Kelly’s fate. He pointed to a brutal stretch of games still left on LSU’s schedule, singling out the clash with the Crimson Tide as the most vital.
“After this weekend, two weeks from now, he’s at Alabama. And then later in the season, he’s at Oklahoma. Should he lose that game, then lose those two, then I don’t see that he has a path to coming back next year,” Finebaum suggested.
The current coaching landscape adds another layer to the situation. A massive coaching carousel has already begun with Penn State firing James Franklin and Florida moving on from Billy Napier. ESPN’s Jordan Rogers noted that this complicates any potential move LSU might consider.
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“Yeah, not yet. I think another thing you have to think about is that you have job openings at Florida, Penn State, Arkansas, and UCLA. This is not the cycle to jump in and compete when you have Brian Kelly there, pump the brakes,” Rogers suggested.
If LSU were to fire Kelly, the program would compete with other top schools for a replacement. Furthermore, the financial cost would be significant. According to USA Today and CBS Sports reports, LSU would owe Kelly $53.3 million if he were fired without cause. Kelly has seven years remaining on his 10-year, $95 million contract, which runs through Dec. 31, 2031.
While a loss to Texas A&M this weekend might not immediately get Kelly fired, it would put him in a precarious position. If more defeats follow that loss in the coming weeks, the pressure in Baton Rouge could become unbearable.
