As the college football season enters its later stages, an element of clarity around the postseason probabilities is expected to emerge. While the teams at the very top — such as the Indiana Hoosiers, Ohio State Buckeyes, and Texas A&M Aggies — appear a sure thing, the race for the College Football Playoff is very much alive and unclear for multiple teams following Week 12.
So, how does the 12-team bracket look following Week 12? Our College Football Playoff predictions project not just the opening matchups and four teams to receive a bye, but use the PFSN College Football Playoff Meter to simulate the games from Round 1 through to the College Football National Championship Game.
College Football Playoff Predictions | First Round
- No. 12 James Madison Dukes vs. No. 5 Ole Miss Rebels
- No. 11 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. No. 6 Georgia Bulldogs
- No. 10 BYU Cougars vs. No. 7 Oregon Ducks
- No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide
Although we’ve had James Madison in our College Football Playoff predictions for the past three weeks, the Dukes’ opportunity to realize that dream as a reality got even closer with the USF Bulls losing to the Navy Midshipmen in Week 12. There’s still much to play for, and Tuesday night’s rankings reveal will tell us how Bob Chesney’s team is viewed.
Elsewhere in Week 12, Texas and Alabama’s losing weakened the SEC’s grip on the top 12, with a real potential for a BYU team that bounced back in style against TCU to place two Big 12 teams in the postseason tournament. Georgia Tech’s win against Boston College, which looked like a loss for large swathes of the game, keeps them alive in the ACC Championship Race and as a potential playoff team.
Football Playoff Predictions | Quarterfinal
- Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 6 Georgia
- Orange Bowl: No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 5 Ole Miss
- Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 7 Oregon
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 8 Alabama
The PFSN FPM projects Georgia as a 9.5-point favorite over the Yellow Jackets in Round 1 of our College Football Playoff predictions, a matchup that would see the teams play each other in successive games. Meanwhile, Ole Miss having a whopping 82.1% probability over James Madison in a game at Oxford would do little to silence the Group of Five naysayers.
That said, Oregon vs. BYU would carry a 73.8% win probability for the Ducks, which isn’t much different. Alabama vs. Notre Dame projects to be the closest of the Round 1 matchups, with the Crimson Tide favored by 3.5 points. Those results set up the quarterfinal matchups with our top four teams above, as dictated by the College Football Playoff bracket.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Semifinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
- Peach Bowl: No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 2 Texas A&M
Ohio State looks impenetrable so far in the run to the Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff, and our latest playoff predictions see them advance to the semifinals as a 5.5-point favorite over the Crimson Tide. That sets up a clash between two of the top defenses in college football, with Texas Tech only given a 33.1% chance of upsetting the Buckeyes.
Indiana has faced negativity about its schedule throughout the season, despite knocking off a strong Oregon side. However, they’re given a 63.1% chance to take down Georgia in the quarterfinal before facing Marcel Reed and Texas A&M in the Peach Bowl. The two quarterbacks might take a trip to New York for the Heisman ceremony before then, but which one prevails?
College Football Bowl Predictions | CFP National Championship Game
- No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Indiana
Ohio State vs. Indiana has been a staple national title game in our College Football Playoff predictions for several weeks. At this moment, it’s difficult to argue with a repeat of the likely Big Ten Championship Game. This game would pit two exciting offenses, two elite defenses, and two of the top coaches in college football against each other.
The difference between the two teams narrows with each passing week, and the PFSN FPM currently projects the Buckeyes as a 2.5-point favorite with a 52.5% chance of winning. The College Football Playoff National Championship Game hasn’t been a close-fought affair for a while. This might make a nice change.