The College Football season is near, and with that, all of the team projections are coming out. With what could potentially be the final year of a very short-lived 12-team playoff, I would like to provide you with my pre-season playoff predictions.
Thanks to PFSN’s College Football Playoff Predictor, we were able to drum up my predictions, which include adherence to the new rules. In 2025, the new playoff system will allow the top four teams in the polls to remain the teams that earn the bye week, while also ensuring that the top five conference champions get an automatic bid.
Several usual culprits at the top of the college football world bring in new quarterbacks, so nailing down the playoffs this year with that kind of uncertainty is going to be quite the tall task. Nevertheless, utilising data analytics and statistics can help us get there.
College Football Playoff Predictions | First Round
- No. 5 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 12 Michigan Wolverines
- No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 11 Memphis Tigers
- No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 10 Miami Hurricanes
- No. 8 Arizona State Sun Devils vs. No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels
The Oregon Ducks and Michigan Wolverines don’t play each other in the regular season, which makes this playoff game that much sweeter. By this time of year, both Dante Moore and Bryce Underwood will have had time to get some legs underneath them and will be battle-tested.
With Evan Stewart potentially missing the season, the Ducks will likely look to true freshman Dakorien Moore to make his presence felt in the pass game. Luckily, the pass game doesn’t have to do it all because Oregon has a dangerous run game coming this season.
Tulane transfer Makhi Hughes ranks third in our analytical darling summer running back rankings for the 2026 draft class. Not only did he rush for over 1,350 yards in back-to-back seasons, but he also ranked 22nd in 10+ yard runs and 18th in missed tackles forced. Now he is running behind arguably the best offensive line in all of football.
Transfers Emmanuel Pregnon and Isaiah World shore up the left side while Iapani Laloulu holds things down at center. This will be the biggest advantage for the Ducks because Michigan just lost two first-rounders along the defensive line in Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant.
It certainly won’t be easy for Oregon to fend off the Wolverines’ pass-rush, given their recent history of reloading along the defensive line. Michigan ranks 18th, seventh, 47th, 20th, and second in pressure rate over the last five non-COVID seasons. Overall, that ranks second behind only Miami since then. Regardless, Oregon does just enough to fend off the Michigan passing attack en route to the quarterfinals.
The Memphis Tigers are once again looking great on paper, but this time around, they deliver on the field as well. Using ESPN’s Statistical Performance Plus Prediction (SP+), we were able to estimate the average spread of each team and their opponent. The Memphis strength of schedule ranks 120th, with their opponents being approximately 3.5 points underdogs on average in their games.
Ohio State is a significantly better team than anyone on Memphis’ schedule, so this will be a culture shock for them. While we don’t think Ohio State is as dangerous as last season, Julian Sayin gets to face a defense that ranked middle of the road (76th) in passing explosives allowed. This is a huge advantage for the team that has Jeremiah Smith.
Carson Beck isn’t Cameron Ward, but he still ranked 32nd in adjusted completion percentage for the Georgia Bulldogs and showed some promise from time to time. They still have a decent group of weapons and were able to find four new starters in the secondary from the transfer portal. Add this to future first-round pick Rueben Bain Jr. along the defensive line, and Miami is actually a decent team after losing the first overall pick.
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Unfortunately for Miami, its schedule ranks 19th in average opponent spread, which means Clemson likely takes the ACC, and now Miami is set to face the Alabama Crimson Tide in the first round. Xavier Lucas transferred from Wisconsin, but neither he nor the other transfers is enough to control Ryan Williams.
Much like Ohio State, Alabama is starting a new quarterback but surrounding him with elite talent. Alabama is also slated to have one of the top defenses in America, so we don’t see Miami being able to stand their ground in this one.
The final matchup of the first round is by far the most competitive. Arizona State returns a nationally talented duo in Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson. For context, Leavitt averaged 0.4 EPA (expected points added) per drop-back when targeting Tyson. This ranks right below Antonio Williams/Cade Klubnik and Smith/Will Howard but right above duos like Jalen Milroe/Ryan Williams.
They also ranked second in returning production, despite already being a playoff team last year. Ole Miss, on the other hand, will be rocking with Austin Simmons. While he hasn’t played much at all, there is a lot of promise. Not only this, but he is working under Lane Kiffin, who is considered a quarterback whisperer.
Losing Walter Nolen to the draft definitely hurts the defense, but they still have rock-solid edge rushers in Princely Umanmielen and Da’Shawn Womack. Umanmielen finished with 11 sacks and 55 pressures last season, while Womack didn’t get much playing time at LSU but looks poised to set the opposite edge.
For such a close matchup, the edge goes to the Rebels solely because they have home-field advantage. Boyd Bets’ Jimmy Boyd has their home field advantage at 3.39 points, which would give them a 5.54 point advantage according to our logistic regression model.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Quarterfinals
- No. 1 Notre Dame vs. No. 8 Ole Miss
- No. 2 Penn State vs. No. 7 Alabama
- No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 6 Ohio State
- No. 4 Texas vs. No. 5 Oregon
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish come in as my number one seed in the playoffs now that they are able to earn a bye (finally). The Irish possess one of the deepest rosters in football on both sides of the ball, led by new quarterback CJ Carr. While Carr will be thrown into the fire right away with games against Miami and Texas A&M early in the season, he can lean on early Heisman candidate Jeremiyah Love and that nasty offensive line.
Notre Dame finished 27th in quick pressure rate allowed and 35th in yards per rush before contact. This offensive line was a makeshift line with several backups playing due to injury, so we can only imagine what they can do when fully healthy. That is, of course, if Charles Jagusah recovers from his accident this summer.
While Ole Miss had a slight physical advantage against Arizona State, as well as home-field advantage, neither of these factors rings true for Notre Dame. Pound for pound, the Fighting Irish have the physicality to match up with anyone, and they also have one of the nation’s best corners in Leonard Moore. The win here goes to the Irish as they reach their second straight semifinal.
Penn State is one of the top teams in terms of experience this year. We were able to estimate the most experienced starting lineups in FBS this season. Penn State ranked fourth.
Will update this when we get official starters for each team but based on Ourlads, this is a good proxy for most experienced fbs teams going into 2025 pic.twitter.com/CdlicYLLNh
— Mark (@footballboymcs) July 20, 2025
Drew Allar, Nic Singleton, and Kaytron Allen headline a loaded backfield, while Zane Durant and Dani Dennis-Sutton will lead this defensive line for the Nittany Lions. Penn State’s 19.9% explosive play percentage ranked 10th in the nation last year, and now they have a much-improved wide receiver group as well.
— Mark (@footballboymcs) July 29, 2025
As you can see above, the Big 10 will not be an easy conference to win this year. Our picking Penn State over the field has more to do with their experience at quarterback than anything else. With both Oregon and Ohio State playing super young and inexperienced quarterbacks, we believe Allar and this defense can do just enough in the regular season to give them the edge.
Unfortunately, we do not believe in Allar enough to pick them over this Crimson Tide defense. Last season, Alabama ranked eighth in passing explosive rate allowed, 56th in pressure rate, and 14th in defensive success rate. They also rank 13th in defensive returning production.
In an earlier article, Keon Keeley was named the one breakout player for the Crimson Tide. If this rings true, they get even more loaded. Even more impressive, not a single one of their starters is projected to transfer, meaning they already have the experience in the system and with each other.
The Clemson Tigers are somehow +1000 to win the national championship this year on DraftKings. They lead the nation in returning production. While this is usually just a statistic, providing context behind this will do Clemson justice.
They are returning three (in my opinion) top 20 receivers in college football, as well as a projected first-round quarterback, two projected first-round defensive linemen, and a projected first-round cornerback as well.
As good as Smith is, we don’t think the rest of the Ohio State roster can keep up with the Tigers. Sayin will get some experience in big games, but we also had the Buckeyes missing out on the conference championship, which is exactly the kind of experience Sayin would need to prepare him for a match with this monster defensive line.
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The final matchup will be a slugfest. As much as the Texas Longhorns lost last season, we think Arch Manning is going to take this squad to the next level. Throwing to Ryan Wingo and DeAndre Moore will certainly help, as well as having both running backs, Quin Wisner and CJ Baxter.
They lost arguably even more on defense, yet we remain absurdly optimistic about their performance. They have the nation’s best pass rusher in Colin Simmons, who ranked eighth in pressure rate generated as just a true freshman. The secondary still has two studs in Michael Taaffe and Malik Muhammad, both of whom played at a very high level for a defense that ranked first in EPA per play.
Throw in their pre-season All-American linebacker in Anthony Hill Jr., and you have a defense poised to put a stop to the Oregon Ducks’ offense. While Oregon’s offensive line should be able to perform well in the run game, we don’t think World or any other offensive tackle on this team is capable of holding Simmons at bay. On top of this, we really do think Manning will reach new heights this season, which means Texas victories.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Semifinals
- No. 1 Notre Dame vs. No. 4 Texas
- No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 7 Alabama
The semifinals feature teams with very good offenses, but arguably the top defenses in the nation. For the Clemson versus Alabama throwback to national title days, Klubnik’s poise under pressure is part of what enables him to do what Allar and the Nittany Lions couldn’t.
Klubnik was tied for fourth this season in big-time throw percentage under pressure and 25th in turnover-worthy play rate. On top of this, Clemson’s absolutely star-studded wide receiver room takes this team to another level that neither Penn State nor Alabama could reach.
Texas versus Notre Dame is an absolutely amazing matchup that includes a top-flight offensive line versus a top-flight defensive line. Simmons lines up a relatively equal amount on both sides of the line, which means Aamil Wagner and Anthonie Knapp will split time trying to slow him down, while the other has to take on Burke.
Another key component here is the coaching aspect. Chris Ash supplanted defensive coordinator Al Golden, who the Cincinnati Bengals hired. In Ash’s three years as defensive coordinator with the Longhorns, they ranked just 96th in man coverage rate. This was part of what made the Notre Dame defense so lethal is their ability to play man coverage successfully.
While Notre Dame still ranked 17th in defensive EPA in zone coverage, it ranked second in man coverage. With this being said, assuming Ash employs his own scheme rather than adapting to the Notre Dame success, I think Manning does just enough to get the Longhorns over the hump.
College Football Playoff Predictions | National Championship Game
- No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 4 Texas
The Clemson Tigers face off with the Texas Longhorns in the 2025-2026 National Championship. After Texas came away with a 38-24 win in the first round of last season’s playoffs, the stakes are much higher, and Texas rolls in with a much more mobile quarterback but also lacks the true superstar in the secondary like they had with Jahdae Barron.
Barron gave up just four catches for 23 yards on eight targets and also chipped in two pass breakups. With Barron gone, we just don’t think the Longhorns have enough juice in the secondary to keep up with this Clemson offense. Manning leads the Texas Longhorns to their first National Championship win since 2005.
