Our college football bowl projections ahead of Week 13 include a prediction for the entire playoff and bowl game matchups for every postseason tilt, all powered by our PFSN College Impact metrics and College Football Playoff Meter.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff First Round
- No. 12 James Madison Dukes vs. No. 5 Ole Miss Rebels
- No. 11 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. No. 6 Georgia Bulldogs
- No. 10 BYU Cougars vs. No. 7 Oregon Ducks
- No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide
Although we’ve had James Madison in the College Football Playoff for the past three weeks, the Dukes’ opportunity to realize these college football bowl projections as a reality got even closer with the USF Bulls losing to the Navy Midshipmen in Week 12. There’s still much to play for, and Tuesday night’s rankings reveal will tell us how Bob Chesney’s team is viewed.
Elsewhere in Week 12, Texas and Alabama’s losing weakened the SEC’s grip on the top 12, with a real potential for a BYU team that bounced back in style against TCU to place two Big 12 teams in the postseason tournament. Georgia Tech’s win against Boston College, which looked like a loss for large swathes of the game, keeps them alive in the ACC Championship Race and as a potential playoff team.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Quarterfinal
- Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 6 Georgia
- Orange Bowl: No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 5 Ole Miss
- Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 7 Oregon
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 8 Alabama
The PFSN FPM projects Georgia as a 9.5-point favorite over the Yellow Jackets in Round 1 of our college football bowl projections, a matchup that would see the teams play each other in successive games. Meanwhile, Ole Miss having a whopping 82.1% probability over James Madison in a game at Oxford would do little to silence the Group of Five naysayers.
That said, Oregon vs. BYU would carry a 73.8% win probability for the Ducks, which isn’t much different. Alabama vs. Notre Dame projects to be the closest of the Round 1 matchups, with the Crimson Tide favored by 3.5 points. Those results set up the quarterfinal matchups with our top four teams above, as dictated by the College Football Playoff bracket.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Semifinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
- Peach Bowl: No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 2 Texas A&M
Ohio State looks impenetrable so far in the run to the Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff, and our college football bowl projections see them advance to the semifinals as a 5.5-point favorite over the Crimson Tide. That sets up a clash between two of the top defenses in college football, with Texas Tech only given a 33.1% chance of upsetting the Buckeyes.
Indiana has faced negativity about its schedule all throughout the season, despite knocking off a strong Oregon side, but they’re given a 63.1% chance to take down Georgia in the quarterfinal before taking on Marcel Reed and Texas A&M in the Peach Bowl. The two quarterbacks might take a trip to New York for the Heisman ceremony before then, but which one prevails?
College Football Bowl Projections | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Indiana
Ohio State vs. Indiana has been a staple national title game in our college football bowl projections for several weeks, and at this moment, it’s difficult to argue with a repeat of the likely Big Ten Championship Game. This game would pit two exciting offenses, two elite defenses, and two of the top coaches in college football against each other.
The difference between the two teams narrows with each passing week, and the PFSN FPM currently projects the Buckeyes as a 2.5-point favorite with a 52.5% win probability. The College Football Playoff National Championship Game hasn’t been a close-fought affair for a while. This might make a nice change.
Projections for the Remaining 2025 College Football Bowl Games
Celebration Bowl
Delaware State vs. Jackson State
LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk
San Diego State vs. Washington
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Toledo vs. Troy
Cure Bowl
Coastal Carolina vs. Memphis
68 Ventures Bowl
Central Michigan vs. Arkansas State
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Kennesaw State vs. Old Dominion
Gasparilla Bowl
East Carolina vs. FSU
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Boise State vs. Ohio
Boca Raton Bowl
USF vs. New Mexico
New Orleans Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Western Kentucky
Frisco Bowl
Marshall vs. Utah State
Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii vs. Louisiana Tech
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Buffalo vs. Rutgers
Rate Bowl
Kansas State vs. Northwestern
First Responder Bowl
UTSA vs. NC State
Military Bowl
Wake Forest vs. North Texas
Pinstripe Bowl
Louisville vs. Nebraska
Fenway Bowl
Clemson vs. Navy
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Virginia vs. Cincinnati
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
UNLV vs. Western Michigan
New Mexico Bowl
Fresno State vs. FIU
Gator Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. Texas
Texas Bowl
Iowa State vs. Tennessee
Birmingham Bowl
Tulane vs. UConn
Independence Bowl
Baylor vs. California
Music City Bowl
Iowa vs. Missouri
Alamo Bowl
Houston vs. USC
ReliaQuest Bowl
Illinois vs. Oklahoma
Sun Bowl
Duke vs. Arizona
Citrus Bowl
Michigan vs. Vanderbilt
Las Vegas Bowl
Arizona State vs. Minnesota
Armed Forces Bowl
Army vs. Missouri State
Liberty Bowl
TCU vs. Kentucky
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Miami (FL) vs. LSU
Holiday Bowl
SMU vs. Utah
Bahamas Bowl
Jacksonville State vs. Miami (OH)