Our college football bowl projections ahead of Week 11 include a prediction for the entire playoff and bowl game matchups for every postseason tilt, all powered by our PFSN College Impact metrics and College Football Playoff Meter.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff First Round
- No. 12 James Madison Duke vs. No. 5 Ole Miss Rebels
- No. 11 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 6 Georgia Bulldogs
- No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 7 BYU Cougars
- No. 9 Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 8 Oregon Ducks
Welcome to the College Football Playoff segment of our college football bowl projections, James Madison. The Dukes have established themselves as the Group of Five’s offensive juggernaut, a second-half defensive dominator, and a team you simply don’t want to face. Bob Chesney’s team now has a 27.8% chance of reaching the postseason competition as the American Conference eats itself alive following Week 10 results.
MORE: PFSN Midseason All-America College Football Team
Another newcomer enters the fray following Week 10, with Georgia Tech’s defeat to the NC State Wolfpack opening the door for the Virginia Cavaliers to cruise to an ACC Championship Game appearance against all preseason expectations. Tony Elliott’s team has a 27.7% chance to win out, a 27.6% shot to win the ACC, and a 33.0% playoff probability ahead of Week 11.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Quarterfinal
- Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 10 Notre Dame
- Orange Bowl: No. 4 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 5 Ole Miss
- Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 6 Georgia
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 9 Oregon
In the 2025-2026 College Football Playoff bracket, the winner of the first round matchup involving the No. 10 and No. 7 seed faces the No. 2 seed in the quarterfinals. In our latest college football bowl projections, that pits Notre Dame against Ohio State in a rematch of last season’s national championship battle.
The old adage suggests repeating the same thing and expecting different results is the ultimate sign of madness, and it would certainly be crazy to bet against the Buckeyes here. The PFSN FPM makes Ohio State a seven-point favorite over the Fighting Irish with a 68.8% win probability.
Speaking of repeating the same thing, our college football bowl projections feature a rematch of an early-season classic in the Sugar Bowl as the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide tussle once more. Alabama emerged victorious at the end of September, and while it’s always dangerous to bet against Kirby Smart, Kalen DeBoer’s team would be a 53.4% favorite to repeat that result.
Watching this College Football Playoff bracket, you’d be forgiven for thinking you were suffering from deja vu as the projected Indiana vs. Oregon matchup would be another rematch from earlier this season. Thankfully, Ole Miss taking on the Texas A&M Aggies in the other quarterfinal matchup would give us a unique combination of teams. The two haven’t met since 2023.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Semifinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Alabama
- Peach Bowl: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
With Ty Simpson leading the Heisman Trophy contenders and the Alabama Crimson Tide finding their feet under DeBoer as the season has progressed, an appearance in the College Football Playoff semifinal isn’t out of the question. It was an unthinkable situation after the Week 1 loss to Florida State, but there’s a legitimate pathway to this point. However, the PFSN FPM gives them just a 34.9% chance of toppling Ohio State.
Our college football bowl projections throw together one of the most unlikely preseason scenarios. If someone had told you that Indiana and Texas A&M would meet for a place in the National Championship Game, you’d have been carted away by men in white coats. Yet, Curt Cignetti and Mike Elko have their teams playing exciting, dominant football late in the year. The Aggies would be a five-point underdog here, per PFSN’s FPM.
College Football Bowl Projections | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State
A repeat of the likely Big Ten Championship Game as the College Football National Championship Game? Why not? We’ve seen stranger things happen before, and if it’s good enough for the SEC, it’s sure good enough for our college football bowl projections. On a neutral site, the PFSN FPM gives the Buckeyes a 52.8% chance of winning, with a two-point victory margin.
Projections for the Remaining 2025 College Football Bowl Games
Celebration Bowl
Delaware State vs. Alabama State
LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk
San Diego State vs. Arizona
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina
Cure Bowl
Southern Miss vs. USF
68 Ventures Bowl
Toledo vs. Old Dominion
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Kennesaw State vs. Troy
Gasparilla Bowl
Tulane vs. UConn
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Fresno State vs. Western Michigan
Boca Raton Bowl
Ohio vs. UNLV
New Orleans Bowl
Arkansas State vs. Jacksonville State
Frisco Bowl
Appalachian State vs. Temple
Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii vs. UTSA
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Buffalo vs. Maryland
Rate Bowl
Baylor vs. Nebraska
First Responder Bowl
East Carolina vs. Kansas
Military Bowl
NC State vs. Memphis
Pinstripe Bowl
Miami (FL) vs. Northwestern
Fenway Bowl
Wake Forest vs. North Texas
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Boise State vs. Miami (OH)
New Mexico Bowl
New Mexico vs. Louisiana Tech
Gator Bowl
Louisville vs. Tennessee
Texas Bowl
Houston vs. Missouri
Birmingham Bowl
Navy vs. Florida State
Independence Bowl
Kansas State vs. Cal
Music City Bowl
Minnesota vs. LSU
Alamo Bowl
Texas Tech vs. Washington
ReliaQuest Bowl
Iowa vs. Oklahoma
Sun Bowl
Duke vs. Arizona State
Citrus Bowl
Michigan vs. Vanderbilt
Las Vegas Bowl
Utah vs. Illinois
Armed Forces Bowl
Army vs. Iowa State
Liberty Bowl
TCU vs. Auburn
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
SMU vs. Mississippi State
Holiday Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. USC
Bahamas Bowl
Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan