We’re on the home stretch on the path to the Big Ten Championship, and the picture is becoming much clearer, as to which teams will be in attendance, and which teams will have to watch from home. The Big Ten has never been more competitive — but two favorites loom large ahead of the pack.
Who’s in? Who’s out? And how does the path to the Big Ten Championship Game play out as the remaining games unfold?
Big Ten Championship Game Probabilities
The Big Ten has been a sea of infighting in 2025, with just two teams left undefeated in conference play in the final weeks of the 2025 regular season.
Just seven of the 18 teams in the Big Ten are still mathematically in the hunt for a seat at the Big Ten Championship game — but for all practical intents and purposes, the list can be reduced to five. And from there, Ohio State and Indiana remain the heavy favorites.
Below, we’ve outlined each remaining contender according to their percentage chance, both for making the conference title game and winning the conference title game.
All data comes from the PFSN College Football Playoff Meter.
- Indiana: 93.9%
- Ohio State: 73.8%
- Oregon: 16.5%
- Michigan: 10.1%
- USC: 7.6%
- Iowa: 0.5%
- Minnesota: 0.1%
Big Ten Championship Game Winning Probability
- Indiana: 46.7%
- Ohio State: 41.8%
- Oregon: 6.4%
- Michigan: 2.9%
- USC: 2.1%
- Iowa: 0.1%
- Minnesota: 0.01%
There is an outcome — among the millions upon millions of potential outcomes — where Iowa or Minnesota makes the Big Ten Championship, but a massive amount of factors have to swing their way for them to even have a chance at beating the odds.
Two teams clearly stand as the heavy favorites to make the Big Ten Championship game: The Ohio State Buckeyes and the Indiana Hoosiers. Both Indiana and Ohio State have over a 70% chance to make the title game — compared to the next-highest school at just 16.5%.
As long as Ohio State and Indiana take care of business in their remaining games, they’ll be fighting for the CFB Playoff bye. But the math says we can’t rule out USC, Oregon, or Michigan just yet.
Latest Big Ten Standings
1) Indiana Hoosiers 10-0 (7-0)
2) Ohio State Buckeyes 9-0 (6-0)
3) USC Trojans 7-2 (5-1)
4) Oregon Ducks 8-1 (5-1)
5) Michigan Wolverines 7-2 (5-1)
6) Iowa Hawkeyes 6-3 (4-2)
7) Minnesota Golden Gophers 6-3 (4-2)
8) Nebraska Cornhuskers 7-3 (4-3)
9) Washington Huskies 6-3 (3-3)
10) Northwestern Wildcats 5-4 (3-3)
11) Illinois Fighting Illini 6-3 (3-3)
12) UCLA Bruins 3-6 (3-3)
13) Rutgers Scarlet Knights 5-5 (2-5)
14) Maryland Terrapins 4-5 (1-5)
15) Wisconsin Badgers 3-6 (1-5)
16) Michigan State Spartans 3-6 (0-6)
17) Penn State Nittany Lions 3-6 (0-6)
18) Purdue Boilermakers 2-8 (0-7)
Indiana’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
The Hoosiers are in control of their own destiny entering Week 12. Had they lost to Penn State in Week 11, they wouldn’t have been in such a comfortable position. But the Hoosiers came up big when it mattered, and now they simply need to stay the course.
Wisconsin and Purdue are two of the four worst teams in the Big Ten, and though the Badgers just scored a surprise victory against Washington, the Nittany Lions gave Indiana a valuable warning about trap games that Curt Cignetti will make sure they heed moving forward.
- vs. Wisconsin
- at Purdue
Ohio State’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
Ohio State’s current mathematical chances likely falter in comparison to Indiana’s because the Buckeyes have three more regular-season games to get through, not just two.
The big game to watch is the season-ending clash against Michigan. Michigan still has just one conference loss, and if it remains that way when Ohio State and Michigan face off, a Wolverines win would give Michigan the tiebreaker over Ohio State.
On paper, Ohio State should be a massive favorite against Michigan, but we said the same thing last year, and Michigan came out on top.
- vs. UCLA
- vs. Rutgers
- at Michigan
Oregon’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
Oregon is on the outside looking in for the Big Ten Championship. As long as Indiana and Ohio State take care of business, they’ll be the ones in Indianapolis. But if one of Indiana or Ohio State slips up, Oregon could sneak into the big game by winning out.
Oregon’s remaining road isn’t easy, however. All three of Oregon’s remaining opponents have winning records, and all three are at least .500 in conference play. USC and Washington have dangerous offensive firepower, while Minnesota is a hard-nosed team.
- vs. Minnesota
- vs. USC
- at Washington
Michigan’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
Michigan has fallen under the radar a bit in the Big Ten Championship race, but they’re still in the conversation — albeit on the fringe. Northwestern should be a safely winnable game for the Wolverines, and Maryland is 1-5 in conference play.
For Michigan, the must-have game is Ohio State to close out the year. The Wolverines are still within one game of the Buckeyes. If they win, they get the tiebreaker that lifts them over Ohio State and into the title game — as long as USC doesn’t win out at the same time.
- at Northwestern
- at Maryland
- vs. Ohio State
USC’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
USC is one two-point loss to Illinois away from being undefeated in Big Ten play alongside Ohio State and Indiana. Still, the Trojans are in the hunt. If the Trojans win out and one of Indiana or Ohio State loses, USC will have a chance to sneak into the title showcase.
If Michigan beats Ohio State and USC wins out, USC has the tiebreaker win over Michigan to get the edge. The challenge for the Trojans will be going 3-0 to close out the year. Oregon is a tough test, especially in Eugene, and Iowa’s gritty edge will prove formidable.
- vs. Iowa
- at Oregon
- vs. UCLA
Iowa’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
Iowa almost stole a win from Oregon in Week 11, but the Ducks instead sealed the deal on the Hawkeyes — leaving Iowa on the cusp of elimination. Iowa will need to weather tough matchups at USC and at Nebraska to even have a chance at catching lightning — and they’ll need all the teams above them to end up with two conference losses.
- at USC
- vs. Michigan State
- at Nebraska
Minnesota’s Big Ten Championship Road Map
Like Iowa, Minnesota has two conference losses. While they’re not mathematically eliminated, they need a lot of help from the teams above them in the pecking order — and that’s before we talk about their game coming up against the Oregon Ducks. One dropped game results in Minnesota’s removal from the picture.
- at Oregon
- at Northwestern
- vs. Wisconsin
