Entering Week 13 of the 2025 College Football season, the Alabama Crimson Tide are one of the primary contenders to earn a spot in the SEC Championship game, and also have a likely CFB Playoff berth to look forward to.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Alabama’s chances of making it to the SEC Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Alabama’s SEC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Alabama a 73.6%Â chance of playing in the SEC Championship Game. The Crimson Tide have one conference game remaining at Auburn (4-6, 1-6), and also play Eastern Illinois in a non-conference showing. The PFSN College FPM has them winning out in 69.6% of simulations.
Before Week 12, Alabama looked like a shoe-in for the SEC Championship game. They were undefeated in conference play, with wins against Tennessee, Missouri, Vanderbilt, and a head-to-head triumph against a fellow title contender in Georgia.
Alabama’s loss to Oklahoma has changed things, however, and puts the Crimson Tide on the same level as one-loss teams like Ole Miss and Georgia. Alabama has the head-to-head win over Georgia at the very least, and the opponent winning percentage tiebreaker leans in favor of Alabama over everyone else — but there’s no margin for error anymore.
Still, even with the loss to Oklahoma, Alabama maintains the highest Conference Championship percentage among SEC contenders, and as long as they win out against two very beatable opponents, they have the inside track to securing a spot in the title game.
If Alabama, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and Georgia all win out, Alabama gets the spot opposite Texas A&M. If Texas A&M loses and everyone else wins out, Alabama gets the Aggies’ place. The Crimson Tide control their destiny as far as the title game goes.
The trickier projection is Alabama’s CFB Playoff fate, but even there, there’s room for optimism.
What are Alabama’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team.
The PFSN College FPM gives Alabama a 73.2% chance of making the College Football Playoff. They make the SEC Championship Game in 73.6% of simulations, and win the conference in 35.6% of simulations. That leaves 37.6% of simulations that feature Alabama as an At-Large team.
Alabama is currently ranked 10th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings — on the fringe, but still safely in the At-Large pool. An SEC Championship appearance only helps matters for Alabama, and a loss to either Texas A&M, Georgia, or Ole Miss — all currently top-six teams — in the title game shouldn’t hurt too much.
The worst-case scenario for Alabama is if a sleeper emerges and wins the Big 12, throwing a wrench in the At-Large numbers. But in most SEC scenarios — automatic bid or At-Large — Alabama finds a way to make it to the postseason, regardless.
Our simulations also give Alabama a 29.96% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 14.65% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 7.3% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
