Despite a loss in Week 12, Alabama remains firmly in the mix when it comes to competing in the SEC Championship Game and taking part in the College Football Playoff. However, with six teams still in contention in the SEC, there is plenty to play for over the final two weeks.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Alabama’s chances of making it to the SEC Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Alabama’s SEC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Alabama a 75.0% chance of playing in the SEC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is at Auburn (1-6, 4-6) in Week 14.
Following their loss to Oklahoma, Alabama’s position within the SEC Championship Game picture became somewhat more precarious. They still control their destiny as a win against Auburn will take them to the SEC Championship Game. However, a win against Oklahoma would have meant they could have lost against Auburn and still potentially made it. That looks very unlikely now.
There are only around 10% of scenarios where Alabama loses to Auburn and makes the SEC Championship Game. Just as concerning for Alabama will be that their chances of making the CFP fell to 78.1%, which means a loss to Auburn could also cost them a spot in the 12-team playoff.
What are Alabama’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for Alabama: win the SEC Championship Game or be an at-large team. PFSN College FPM currently gives Alabama a 78.1% chance of competing in the College Football Playoff.
Our simulations give Alabama a 75.0% chance of playing the SEC Championship Game and a 38.0% chance of winning the SEC Championship Game. That leaves them with a 40.1% chance of making the CFP as an at-large team.
In the CFP, four teams receive a bye to the quarterfinals, avoiding the first round entirely. Currently, our College FPM has Alabama as a top-four seed in 38.0% of simulations.
That breaks down in the following way:
- #1 Seed: 0.15%
- #2 Seed: 37.7%
- #3 Seed: 0.15%
- #4 Seed: 0.01%
Our simulations also give Alabama a 33.9% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 16.7% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and an 8.6% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
