The Miami Dolphins’ expectations weren’t the highest after an offseason of roster turnover, but even they didn’t expect to get out to a measly 1-6 start to the 2025 NFL season. With the losses and injuries piling up, missing the postseason seemed like a forgone conclusion.
However, after a massive win against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8 and one of the easier remaining schedules down the stretch, is there still a chance for the Dolphins to make the playoffs this season?
What Do Playoff Hopes Look Like for the Miami Dolphins?
According to PFSN’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM), heading into the Week 8 matchup against the Falcons, Miami had a 1.3% chance of making the playoffs, ranked 29th in the league, and a 0.2% chance of winning the AFC East.
The highest chance comes from a Wild Card Round appearance with a 0.7% chance of capturing the seventh seed, a 0.3% chance of clinching the sixth seed, and a 0.1% chance of clinching the third, fourth, or fifth seeds.
Following the Week 8 victory, Miami’s playoff chances rose to 2% while their chances of clinching the division stayed at 0.2% with the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots also winning in Week 8. So even with beating the Falcons 34-10, Miami’s chances of making a postseason appearance still seem highly unlikely, even with an easier remaining strength of schedule.
If anything, the win made things more confusing, as the Dolphins are still searching for long-term answers for the franchise. After quite a few duds this season, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa played a clean game, completing 20 of 26 passes for 205 yards and four touchdowns, including a 43-yard connection to WR Jaylen Waddle.
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Most importantly, he kept the ball out of harm’s way with no turnovers. All this came on a day when he woke up with a swollen left eye, which he even joked about during the touchdown to Waddle.
Jaylen Waddle is a BLUR. 43-yard TD!
MIAvsATL on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXnxV pic.twitter.com/k6ggqc9Qu1
— NFL (@NFL) October 26, 2025
After the disappointing start to the season, it seemed like Miami was on a one-way path to a high draft pick, but the win complicates that in a week when the New York Jets finally found their way into the win column. Even with the Jets going to 1-7, the Dolphins have a 7.6% chance at securing the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, well behind New York’s chance at 29.9%.
However, Miami is still primed to get into the top ten with an 80.9% chance and a 46.9% chance to get into the top five of the draft order. A high pick allows the Dolphins to add more playmakers to a team desperately needing talent.
