Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams has been viewed as a prodigy in “real” life, and he’ll have every chance to prove it to fantasy football managers, given the talent of his supporting cast.
Rookie signal-callers can be a tough click given the depth of the position and the wide range of outcomes (Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud were picked 1-2 in 2023 and couldn’t have had more different introductions to the NFL).
That said, the quality of pass catchers at Williams’ disposal is greater than what Stroud had last year. Could he experience similar success and be a staple in lineups?
Caleb Williams’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 295
- Passing Yards: 3,866
- Passing TDs: 16
- Interceptions: 10
- Rushing Yards: 596
- Rushing TDs: 5
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Williams This Year?
Williams checks every dynasty box. The athleticism is well above average, the processing speed projects promisingly, and his playmakers mold upside with stability.
The question managers are forced to wrestle with is a matter of timing. Not if he will be a strong fantasy option, but a matter of when.
Caleb Williams is a magician pic.twitter.com/X4aUJSJIpE
— Six Point Bears (@SixPointBears)
Pro Football Network Draft Analyst Ian Cummings’ pre-draft scouting report tells you all you need to know about the raw skill set that is in play for Williams:
- Has hyper-elite composite arm talent, with 90th-percentile arm strength and elasticity.
- Rips passes with laser-like velocity into the short, intermediate, and deep ranges.
- Can torque his hips and generate elite velocity off-platform, even when rolling left.
- Near-generational creator with incredible sense, spatial awareness, agility, and control.
- Effortless off-platform throwing ability makes him a constant danger as a passer.
The way Williams is described by those in the college football space very much reminds me of a former NFC North quarterback. Think about it. Elite pocket athleticism, the ability to make all the throws, and strong creative powers that never let the defense take a breath.
Is that not early-career Aaron Rodgers? It should be mentioned that Rodgers wasn’t asked to start as a rookie, but in his first year as the man in Green Bay, he cleared 4,000 passing yards and 200 rushing yards, while averaging 18.1 fantasy points per game.
That average would have been good for QB8 honors last season, just behind the aforementioned Stroud. I think that sort of season is certainly within the range of outcomes, and that would pay off Williams’ asking price in a big way.
Williams’ ADP is currently in the middle of a tier with Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, and Justin Herbert – all of whom are going in Rounds 9-10 (for the record, QB8 is a late fifth/early sixth-round pick).
Williams could be great, and I’d argue for his ceiling over any of those options being selected in his vicinity. That said, there is an inherent risk that comes with any rookie, and that lands him in a range of quarterbacks for whom I’m okay with drafting as a backup.
Can I interest you in taking Young with your final pick? He’s far from a stable option, but the Panthers did bring in an offensive mind and some additional personnel. Also working in favor of this idea is the fact that Young plays the Washington Commanders during Williams’ bye week and the Philadelphia Eagles when Williams travels to San Francisco in Week 14.
It may not feel comfortable (okay, it definitely won’t), but draft strategies like this, where you look to duct tape together the position while building a super team elsewhere, can work if done correctly.
