Our Thanksgiving Day football prediction begins with what seems like an annual question: Why are the Detroit Lions always playing on Thanksgiving? The Lions have played 82 Thanksgiving Day games, and to absolutely no one’s surprise, they have a losing record.
Unfortunately for them, my Behavior Bets model will not see them improve on their 37-43-2 all-time record in this Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions prediction. However, it may be closer than some might think.
Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions Prediction and Odds | Week 12
- Spread: Lions +9.5
- Moneyline: Bills -440
- Over/Under: Under 54.0 points
Bills vs. Lions Prediction
Typically, this is a game I would stay away from. If you follow me on Pikkit, then you know the teams I’m most successful with are the more predictable ones.
Nailing down a Bills vs. Lions prediction means trying to account for volatility on both sides of the ball. Buffalo’s defense has been rather unpredictable in the last several weeks, which has also led to what I believe is an unsustainable trend.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Lions have been the most inconsistent team in the NFL. My sports betting model has been great at finding the best odds to target, but the Bills vs. Lions odds will be particularly hard to pinpoint given the aforementioned instability.
The Bills’ defense has been trending in very much the wrong direction. Giving up more points week over week at a rate of 69% should be alarming to Buffalo fans. They have kept their points per game average relatively low due to early season performances.
However, when examining them pre and post-bye week, they’re giving up 105% more points week over week after the bye compared to before and are seeing a 102% growth rate in the four games after the bye week alone. I believe that to be unsustainable through the rest of the season, which is what makes this a risky play.
The Lions’ offense, likewise, is headed in the wrong direction related to scoring points. They are decelerating the rate at which they score by 5% week over week. Not as nearly as unsustainable a trend as what we see with Buffalo’s defense. However, they’re more than twice as inconsistent.
With a bounce rate of x9.7, Detroit is by far the most inconsistent point-scoring offense in the league. They have five games where they have scored over 30 points, and then they have two games where they have scored six or fewer, including a shutout. Quite literally all or nothing.
The question for this Bills vs. Lions Thanksgiving Day prediction is, which version of the Lions’ offense and the Bills’ defense are you going to get? I think the Lions have done enough to think they’ll be able to put up some points against a defense that has been struggling as of late. I don’t think it’s enough, however, to propel them to a win.
As a reminder, the Bills still have Josh Allen. The Lions’ defense has been one of the most improved at giving up points as the season has progressed, but it’s not enough to overcome Buffalo.
Bills vs. Lions Prediction: Bills 24, Lions 23