The Buffalo Bills held off a late charge by the Cleveland Browns and avoided an awful loss that would have all but ended their hope of winning the AFC East. Up three, the Bills’ defense stopped the Browns twice in the final seven minutes.
A concern for the Bills is the status of Josh Allen’s foot. Allen sustained a foot injury late in the first half, but after halftime, when X-rays were negative, he returned to finish the game. Following the win, Allen, currently at the top of the PFSN’s Quarterback Impact (QBi) rankings, stated he felt fine.
What Are the Buffalo Bills’ Chances of Making the Playoffs and Winning the AFC East?
The Bills entered the game with a 98.7% chance of making the playoffs, according to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor. Buffalo, now 11-4, clinched a playoff berth when the Colts lost to the 49ers on Monday night.
After their win against the Browns, the Bills will continue the playoff push with their final two home games against the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Jets.
The Patriots improved to 12-3 with their victory over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. New England finishes with a road game against the Jets and the Miami Dolphins at home in Week 18.
This playoff context also impacts the division race. Heading into Week 16, the Bills had a 31.1% chance to win the AFC East. With New England’s win, Buffalo’s odds remain almost unchanged at 29.0%.
A Bills loss in Cleveland paired with the Patriots’ win would have dropped the odds to 5.4%. If the Patriots lost in Baltimore, it would have increased the Bills’ chances to 48.3%.
The tiebreaker situation helps explain this slight change in the Bills’ division chances, as both teams won. Even if they had lost in Week 16, the Patriots would still have owned control of their path to the AFC East title. If both AFC East teams win the last two games, the Patriots hold the advantage due to tiebreakers.
Buffalo and New England split the two head-to-head games, so the next tiebreaker is division record.
If the Bills win their final games and the Patriots lose only to the Ravens, the Patriots will finish the division with a 5-1 record, while Buffalo will finish at 4-2. Buffalo’s loss to Miami in Week 10 would be the deciding factor. Buffalo needs New England to drop a game to the Jets or Dolphins to even the division records at 4-2.
The two teams would remain tied in the common games tiebreaker. The Bills would win the conference tiebreaker to clinch the AFC East.
