Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Players To Target Include Chris Godwin, Deebo Samuel, Brock Purdy, and Others

Kyle Soppe
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Players To Target Include Chris Godwin, Deebo Samuel, Brock Purdy, and Others

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ fantasy football preview focuses on a slumping Chris Godwin, while the San Francisco 49ers’ fantasy outlook tries to figure out which pass catcher will be left behind in this matchup.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers

  • Spread: 49ers -11.5
  • Total: 41.5
  • Buccaneers implied points: 15
  • 49ers implied points: 26.5

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield: Don’t look now, but Mayfield has been a QB1 in four straight games after posting just one such finish in his first five games this season. His connection with Mike Evans elevates his ceiling in a significant way, though his reliance on a big-play option like that is what creates a low floor that we could see in this brutal matchup.

Mayfield is well off the radar in standard-sized leagues this week, but this is the last matchup he has that I truly fear for the next 1.5 months. Don’t write him off completely as someone who could matter for deeper leagues.

Brock Purdy: Remember the three straight losses for the 49ers before the bye that had the general public panicking? Purdy put those fears to rest with a 19 for 26 showing in Jacksonville that saw him rack up 296 yards and three scores against a rested Jaguars defense.

The QB6 finish was his highwater mark for the season, and while that sort of production is a little much to project moving forward, Purdy has four finishes this season in the 10-13 range, something I could see him consistently offering down the stretch.

MORE: Fantasy News Tracker

This is a good matchup (seventh-most yards per pass attempt allowed), and with a healthy supporting cast, Purdy’s weekly floor is stronger than any other option in this tier of fantasy signal-callers.

Starting a few players that won’t lose you your matchup holds value, and that’s exactly what you can count on from Purdy both this week and for the remainder of the 2023 season.

Running Backs

Rachaad White: I don’t like to throw around the “S” word very often, but White has earned it. He has posted four straight finishes inside of the top 20 at the position, producing over 6.5 fantasy points as a pass catcher in each of those contests.

Over that stretch, he’s averaging 20.3 touches per game and gets home a different way every week. Per the Week 11 Cheat Sheet:

  • Week 10: 43-yard TD catch
  • Week 9: Two 1-yard TD runs
  • Week 8: 28% reception share with a 100% catch rate

Critics will point to the fact that White has 132 carries this season and is still searching for his first 20-yard gain. I say, imagine the fantasy upside if he accesses the big play on the ground!

I’ll say it. White has been nothing short of special. At a position with crazy swings in role and production, White has been there for you every step of the way. He’s left us no choice but to rank him as a high-end RB2 who could be an RB1 over the final month (Panthers – Falcons – Packers – Jaguars – Saints).

Christian McCaffrey: Imagine a world in which a running back averages 5.9 yards per carry, commands 37% of the targets, and — fantasy managers are complaining.

“Complaining” might be a little strong, but I’m on more than a few group chats that were disgruntled about CMC failing to reach the end zone last week.

MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings

McCaffrey is the best player in fantasy, and I promise you that he’ll be in the end zone sooner than later.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans: He has seven fewer targets now than he had total receptions last season, and yet, he’s already matched his touchdown total (TD catch in three of his past four games).

Evans’ scoring equity is as strong as any receiver in the league right now, which drives his weekly top-15 ranking. Ranking him highly, however, doesn’t make him a perfect player.

Did you know that we are nearing a 13-month stretch in which Evans has one game with more than six receptions? How about that the one exception to that rule was a Week 17 game in which the Bucs were force-feeding his targets to get him past 1,000 yards for the season?

That means that, within the flow of their “normal” offense, Evans holds a catch ceiling of six. That’s a small nit to pick, but it’s my job to keep you aware of both ceiling and floor cases.

It’s been smooth sailing for the majority of this season. Just be careful in assuming that he’s on the list of the game’s safest options at the position.

Chris Godwin: We entered the season expecting Godwin to be the consistent Buccaneers receiver, and he’s been that. It’s just been in a consistently underwhelming manner.

The veteran has finished outside of the top 25 wide receivers in seven of nine games this season and has just one score on his ledger.

The floor has been acceptable (Week 3 was the last time he finished outside the top 40), but in an era of wide-open offenses that encourage big plays from WRs, the lack of a ceiling is concerning.

The 49ers are a top-six team in terms of time of possession and limiting opponent yards per pass attempt. This is a dangerous spot for a receiver who lacks one-play upside.

Godwin is just inside of my top 35 receivers this week, ranking behind most of the others with consistent volume and ahead of the Gabe Davis’ of the world who rely on one play.

Brandon Aiyuk: After scoring on the first drive on a jump ball of sorts, Aiyuk was hardly heard from last week in Jacksonville as the team welcomed Deebo Samuel back from a shoulder injury that sidelined him for a pair of games. For the game as a whole, Aiyuk earned a discouraging 11.1% target share.

I’ve said it all season, and I’ll continue to say it: This is exactly what you signed up for.

It’s going to be hard for an offense that relies on efficiency more so than volume to support an elite running back and three pass-catchers. The lack of looks last season is a minor red flag, but nothing that I’m overreacting to.

For DFS purposes and betting, this receiver room requires a good amount of homework every week to make your final decision. The process is easier in annual leagues — you play all your 49ers every week.

Deebo Samuel: I think it’s cliche, but in this case, I think it’s true, so I’m going to use it.

“Samuel means more to the 49ers than he does to fantasy teams.”

  • 30-30-30-35-42-17-34
  • 17-17

That first set of numbers are the point totals for the 49ers when Samuel is active this season, and the second grouping represents the two games he missed.

It’s a tiny sample, but there’s no denying that his versatility has a very Steph Curry feel to it in that the gravity of him makes life easier for everyone around him.

Samuel ran for a score in his return from a shoulder injury. While that’s great, six of his seven touches didn’t gain more than nine yards.

His one game with high-end receiving numbers this season came with Aiyuk banged up, something that is no longer the case. You’re playing a dangerous game in counting on any San Francisco pass catcher (games like last week where they all score don’t happen very often) in a one-week situation.

The Bucs are a rare high-blitz, high-opponent-a-DOT defense, and on a spreadsheet, that profiles as more of an Aiyuk spot than a Samuel one. You signed up for risk when you drafted Samuel, so you’re playing him every week and banking on the good weeks to outweigh the poor ones.

Tight Ends

Cade Otton: Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. If you want to talk yourself into Otton being a viable fantasy TE, you cite the one metric that all viable options share: playing time.

As it turns out, you have to be on the field to score fantasy points, and with Week 10’s rates (95.4% of snaps and 85.7% route participation) in line with what Otton does every week, he certainly checks that important box.

MORE: 2023 TE Fantasy Football Rankings

That’s a good place to start, but the optimism runs out in a hurry.

Otton has been held under 30 yards six times this season, which means he needs to score to matter. Generally speaking, I don’t mind that profile in the right spot at the TE position, but as the fourth option in a Mayfield-led offense, you can do better.

George Kittle: The 66-yard TD strike was perfect execution. Get a plus athlete moving vertically in single coverage and take your chances.

The big play resulted in a strong fantasy week for Kittle, but he saw just three other targets. For the season, he has seen fewer than five targets in the majority of games, putting his floor well below that of the TEs he shares a tier with (Engram and Schultz).

Much like his receiver teammates, Kittle’s range of outcomes is wide. Unlike his teammates, though, the down weeks aren’t lethal due to the position he plays. Plug in Kittle every single week and hope that the high-end performances come when your team needs them most.

Should You Start Brock Purdy or Joshua Dobbs?

As good as the Dobbs story is, Purdy, with his trio of pass catchers against a pass funnel defense, is simply too much to ignore. The 49ers are a different offense with Deebo Samuel active and that elevates Purdy’s floor far higher than that of Dobbs.

Should You Start Chris Godwin or Jerry Jeudy?

Do I have to pick? Godwin is pacing for under 1,000 yards this season and has one touchdown, but I do think his reasonably stable catch count is enough to justify him being ranked just over Jeudy in the low-end Flex ranks.

Jeudy’s next finish as a top-25 receiver will be his first this season. It’s been a brutal season if you invested in Jeudy this summer, and I’m not sure that changes any time soon.

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Players To Target Include DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, and Others

Kyle Soppe
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0
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Players To Target Include DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, and Others

The Tennessee Titans‘ fantasy preview tries to evaluate DeAndre Hopkins in this Will Levis-led offense, while the Jacksonville Jaguars‘ fantasy football outlook focuses on their underwhelming passing game.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Spread: Jaguars -6.5
  • Total: 39.5
  • Titans implied points: 16.5
  • Jaguars implied points: 23

Quarterbacks

Will Levis: The Jaguars were lit up by Brock Purdy last week, and with that fresh in our mind, I understand the temptation to roll the dice on a talented rookie facing them. I’ll pass.

After throwing four touchdowns in his NFL debut, Levis hasn’t found the end zone on 78 pass attempts and looks how you’d expect a rookie to look: sporadic and inconsistent. On the plus side, 39 pass attempts are enough volume to hold meaningful upside.

This looks like a Derrick Henry spot, and with that, Levis’ floor is too scary to flirt with given his wide range of outcomes on a per-pass basis.

Trevor Lawrence: This is a great matchup. The Jaguars’ WR room might finally be healthy, and Travis Etienne Jr. is running hard and demanding attention.

If you had given me that profile back in August, I’d tell you that I’d have Lawrence as a top-five QB with ease. Heck, if August Kyle was feeling spicy, he may have even told you that Lawrence would lead the position in scoring in that spot.

Life comes at you fast, though. Lawrence has thrown multiple TD passes against one opponent this season (Colts) and has thrown for 300 yards just once. He’s struggling in every respect this season and hasn’t been getting any help from his friends (5.3% drop rate, per the Week 11 Cheat Sheet).

Like Pollard, I think it’s very possible that Lawrence peaks during the fantasy playoffs — Buccaneers and Panthers in Weeks 16-17 — and rewards those with an absurd level of loyalty. That fading hope is why I’m still rostering Lawrence, but as my QB14 in Week 11, I’m not starting him until he gives me a reason to.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry: The King is coming off of a 20-yard, 12-touch lineup-killing performance in Tampa Bay. This was right after he worked his way back into our good graces with three straight games north of 100 scrimmage yards.

I’m not expecting one bad game to turn into a slump. He’s racked up at least 109 rushing yards and a touchdown in four straight against the Jags. That stretch includes a pair of games with multiple rushing touchdowns. You can count on Henry in all formats.

No. I don’t care that Jacksonville kept Christian McCaffrey out of the end zone. Henry is my RB6 this week and is a true threat to top the position in fantasy points this week.

Tyjae Spears: If Henry’s snap-to-carry count weren’t historically high, Spears’ athleticism and snap share would have had him on Flex radars a month ago.

In Week 10, he handled a direct snap for Tennessee’s first rush attempt of the game, and yet, it was another game with no more than 11 touches, just like every other week this season.

Spears is exactly the type of RB struggling dynasty managers should be trading for this time of year. His impact this season will be minimal at best, but it’s equally as clear that he is poised for big things sooner than later.

Go ahead and offer an older back with a stable role this season to the highly competitive team that is stashing Spears. They improve their win expectancy in 2023, and you breathe life into your forward-looking squad.

Travis Etienne Jr.: Feel free to write off his 44-yard performance in a 31-point loss to the 49ers last week. Etienne averaged 22.3 touches per game before Week 10 and scored seven times in his previous four games.

Jacksonville’s passing game is broken right now, which puts Etienne in a great spot when it comes to safe volume. Should the passing game correct itself, his tough count may decline, but the scoring equity and quality of carries would increase by more than enough to offset any concerns.

MORE: 2023 RB Fantasy Football Rankings

Etienne is easily an RB1 the rest of the way and could prove to be a league-winner with Jacksonville fighting for the division.

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins: The future Hall of Famer scored 32.8 fantasy points on six targets from Will Levis back in Week 8, but in the two games since, his 19 targets have resulted in just 12.2 points.

The usage remains strong. That’s here to stay, given the lack of other options in this offense. An aggressive Jaguars defense could eliminate the big play from Hopkins, but it could just as easily result in a high catch count.

There is a wide range of outcomes for Nuk this week, given that the game script could go in any direction. If Henry is rolling, this could be one of those 25 pass-attempt games, which means Hopkins would have a tough time returning a profit on my strong WR2 ranking of him.

On the flip side, if Lawrence finally heats up and the Titans are playing catch up, this could be Hopkins’ most involved game of the season. I’m embracing his variance in DFS, where I expect Henry to garner much of the Titans-related ownership, and starting him in season-long spots where, ideally, I have “safe” options around him.

Christian Kirk: Even with Lawrence playing a few notches below expectation, Kirk continues to get it done. Last week against the Niners, he totaled 104 yards and earned 35.5% of the targets. He is the clear-cut WR1 in this offense, and while that will be impacted to a degree whenever Zay Jones returns, we have to assume that he’s “the guy” until proven otherwise.

Kirk’s role in the slot has him flirting with a 70% catch rate, which he’s done while maintaining his per-catch upside (29+ yard catches in six straight games). If you wanted to label Kirk as a fantasy WR1 this week, I wouldn’t blame you. At the very worst, he’s a strong WR2 who deserves to be locked into all starting lineups.

Calvin Ridley: Those preseason highlight videos feel like decades ago. Week 10 was the third time in four games in which Ridley failed to clear 30 receiving yards, and by earning just three targets, there was no upside in the role he played against San Francisco.

When the coaching staff was asked about getting their presumed WR1 more looks, the response focused on the penalties he has drawn and the value that hidden notes like that provide.

MORE: Fantasy News Tracker

That, in theory, makes sense, but if penalties suggest that the defense is having a hard time guarding him, why not keep pressing that button?

Maybe this is a get-right spot in a plus matchup, but I’ve typed that before. At least three other times.

Ridley has fallen outside of my top 30 this week. Yes, I’m treating him like a little child. I’m sending him to his room to let him think about what he has done. When I go up to check on him in a week, there are only two potential outcomes:

  1. He felt remorse, cleaned his room, and was allowed back into my lineups.
  2. He snuck out late at night, went to a concert, and forced me to put adoption on the table.

Can you tell I’m not a parent in real life? I care about my fantasy teams like I would a family, and Pop Sop runs a tight ship. Shape up or ship out Mr. Ridley!

Zay Jones: This season from Jones is exactly why leagues need to have an IR slot, if not multiple. He caught five balls on seven targets in an encouraging season opener, but this knee injury has limited him to three grabs on 11 targets ever since.

I maintain that he is a roster-worthy player when active and may be a risk/reward Flex play if this team can start moving in the right direction.

That said, given the extended absence this injury has caused, there’s a 0% chance I’m playing Jones in any capacity when he finally returns to the field.

Tight Ends

Evan Engram: Last week against San Fran was just the second time this season that Engram finished outside the top 14 tight ends, a level of stability that has him heading my third tier at the position with LaPorta.

Engram lit up the Titans for 11 catches, 162 yards, and two touchdowns in Week 14 last season. While that sort of outburst isn’t likely this time around, I’m very comfortable with his floor and think he has a real shot at his best finish of the season this week.

Should You Start Sam Howell or Trevor Lawrence?

In August, I would have told you that this wasn’t close.

In November, I’m telling you it’s not close — but with a completely different answer.
Howell’s volume supports both a floor and ceiling that Lawrence simply hasn’t flashed in 2023. The matchup with the Titans is great for Lawrence, but it’s not as if Howell is facing the ‘85 Bears, and given his stability through 10 weeks, he has my trust in this spot.

Should You Start Jahan Dotson or DeAndre Hopkins?

Dotson is certainly trending in the right direction and Hopkins’ value has taken a hit lately as Will Levis comes back to earth (0 TD passes on 78 attempts) after his impressive debut.

That said, I still think Hopkins’ volume is more stable than that of Dotson and I like his per-target upside. The future Hall of Famer is a strong WR2 for me against the Jaguars while Dotson is a Flex option with a wide range of outcomes.

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Players To Target Include Saquon Barkley, Brian Robinson, Jahan Dotson, and Others

Kyle Soppe
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0
New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Players To Target Include Saquon Barkley, Brian Robinson, Jahan Dotson, and Others

The New York Giants’ fantasy football preview looks to evaluate their lone remaining relevant piece in Saquon Barkley, while the Washington Commanders‘ fantasy outlook puts some context around what Brian Robinson Jr. is doing.

New York Giants at Washington Commanders

  • Spread: Commanders -9.5
  • Total: 37.5
  • Giants implied points: 14
  • Commanders implied points: 23.5

Quarterbacks

Sam Howell: Some players are placed in perfect spots for our game and others are Bijan Robinson. Howell has cleared 40 pass attempts in six of his past seven games and has posted five top 10s in his past six.

In addition to cruising past 300 passing yards in each of his past three games, Howell’s on pace for nearly 300 yards on the ground.

At his price, he’s a great DFS buy against the fourth-worst pass defense in terms of yards per attempt allowed. It’s difficult to rank his mean outcome better than QB12 this week, but that’s more a product of plus-matchups for this range of quarterbacks.

MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings

Here’s how I have the back end of the QB1 tier stacking up this week:

  • 9) Jared Goff vs. CHI
  • 10) C.J. Stroud vs. ARI
  • 11) Kyler Murray at HOU
  • 12) Howell vs. Giants
  • 13) Brock Purdy vs. TB
  • 14) Trevor Lawrence vs. TEN

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley: The star running back is coming off his worst week of the season (RB36), but the one-sided nature of that game certainly factored in.

The Giants’ offense pretty clearly caps Barkley’s upside, but they weren’t exactly elevating talent in the month prior to the Week 10 dud, and his average positional finish over that stretch was RB14.

Barkley racked up 118 yards and a touchdown in the Week 7 meeting with the Commanders, a game in which he and Darren Waller combined for 56.1% of the Giants’ offensive yardage. Now, with Waller out, Barkley’s usage rate alone makes him a usable fantasy piece.

Thanks to his one-play potential, Barkley comes in as a strong RB2 for me.

Brian Robinson Jr.: I’m running away if I can.

I don’t want to say that Robinson’s stock is destined to experience a GameStop-like drop.

But I’m not not saying that is an outcome that I’m considering. How worried am I?

Through 10 weeks, Robinson is scoring once every 17.6 touches. That number might not be shocking without context, but allow me to help.

  • Robinson, 2022: TD once every 71.3 touches
  • Barry Sanders, 1991: TD once every 22.5 touches

Yes. This season, Robinson’s per-touch scoring rate is 22% greater than Sanders’ highest-scoring season of his Hall of Fame career. That’s a real stat.

Robinson is a fine player. He’s also the lead back (barely last week, 31-29 snap edge over Antonio Gibson) in an aggressive offense. Understood. But what he is doing is so far beyond unsustainable.

Robinson has one game with more than 10 carries since Week 4, and yet, he’s finished as a viable fantasy starter in every game over that stretch thanks to crossing the goal line.

When (not if) the TD luck dries up, there are major floor concerns. Due to committees and tough matchups, Robinson still finds himself inside of my top 25 (barely), but there isn’t a player in the sport I’m more aggressively shopping.

Antonio Gibson: Three straight games with five receptions and a snap count trending in the right direction have Gibson back on PPR rosters, and I understand it.

Last week, he held a 23-20 advantage over Robinson in routes run and has caught 17 of 18 targets over the past month-plus.

MORE: Fantasy News Tracker

If I have a powerhouse PPR team, I’m throwing Gibson at the end of my bench. I’m not expecting to play him, but in that situation, his floor is palatable for an offense that ranks in the top five in pass rate above expectation.

Wide Receivers

NYG WR: There’s no reason to roster any of these receivers. At all.

Tight end Daniel Bellinger led the G-Men in receiving yards last week with two catches for 34 yards. Why would we expect anything to improve?

If you want to buy the dip on Jalin Hyatt in dynasty, by all means, go for it. Otherwise, this WR room requires zero of your brain cells.

Terry McLaurin: Process over results. McLaurin has seen at least eight targets in five straight games (a total he hit just once in his first five games), and that seems unlikely to change anytime soon with Washington operating at a top-five rate in terms of pass rate above expectation.

McLaurin earned 25% of the targets when these teams met in Week 7, and that has his floor projecting well for me this week. He caught six passes for 90 yards in that game, one in which Howell played well below expectations (his second-lowest QBR of the season).

McLaurin’s a fine Flex play if Howell were to struggle again, but I think him accessing his ceiling is far more likely. He’s yet to finish inside the top 15 at the position this season, but I think that changes on Sunday.

Jahan Dotson: Washington’s second-year WR flopped in a major way last week in Seattle — zero catches on two targets — after earning 26 targets over his previous three games. Can he regain that usage level and move past the dud of Week 10?

I think so. That spike in targets started with eight opportunities against these Giants in Week 7. He only managed to turn those looks into five catches and 43 yards, but if you’re telling me that I get eight targets, I’d happily roll the dice on a skill set like Dotson’s.

MORE: 2023 WR Fantasy Football Rankings

Per the Week 11 Cheat Sheet, he ran a route on 93.6% of Howell’s dropbacks last week, and with us expecting big things out of this pass game, Dotson should be viewed as a Flex play with a wide range of outcomes. For reference, I prefer him to Jordan Addison (potential Patrick Surtain matchup) and Gabe Davis.

Curtis Samuel: In his return to action, Samuel turned six targets into six yards in a reminder to us all that he needs to not be rostered. The creativity in getting him the ball is long gone, and the per-target production is nowhere near fantasy-friendly in any format.

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas: Props to you for consistently reading! I’ll throw you a changeup to reward your loyalty … drop the beat!

They call him LT, but he’s no Lawrence Taylor
Rostering Thomas isn’t exciting, but it’s not a failure
A handful of points is all you need, it’s a near lock
Six finishes as TE13 or better is something of a shock
I’m not here to tell you he’s great or a game-breaker
But a high floor is part of the recipe, call me the fantasy baker
Here to get you a W in Week 11, pick your team off the deck
Plug in the Commander of the field, playing at FedEx

Maybe you liked that. Probably not. Either way, it kept my editors entertained, and I’m just here to spread the smiles as best I can!

Should You Start Sam Howell or Trevor Lawrence?

In August, I would have told you that this wasn’t close.

In November, I’m telling you it’s not close — but with a completely different answer. Howell’s volume supports both a floor and ceiling that Trevor Lawrence simply hasn’t flashed in 2023. The matchup with the Titans is great for Lawrence, but it’s not as if Howell is facing the ‘85 Bears; given his stability through 10 weeks, Howell has my trust in this spot.

Should You Start Jahan Dotson or DeAndre Hopkins?

Dotson is certainly trending in the right direction, and DeAndre Hopkins’ value has taken a hit lately as Will Levis comes back to earth (0 TD passes on 78 attempts) after his impressive debut.

That said, I still think Hopkins’ volume is more stable than that of Dotson and I like his per-target upside. The future Hall of Famer is a strong WR2 for me against the Jaguars while Dotson is a Flex option with a wide range of outcomes.

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Players To Target Include Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, De’Von Achane, and Others

Kyle Soppe
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0
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Players To Target Include Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, De’Von Achane, and Others

The Las Vegas Raiders‘ fantasy football preview takes a look at their receivers who are trending in the wrong direction, while the Miami Dolphins‘ fantasy outlook takes the temperature of their backfield with De’Von Achane eligible to return to action.

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins

  • Spread: Dolphins -12.5
  • Total: 46.5
  • Raiders implied points: 17
  • Dolphins implied points: 29.5

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa: As good as the Dolphins offense has been, it may surprise you that Tagovailoa has as many weeks this season finishing outside of the top 15 as inside the top nine (three apiece). There are some red flags to consider for fantasy purposes:

  • Under 10 rush yards in every game this season
  • Under 35 pass attempts in four of his past five games

I’m raising the points as a way to caution you for the future, not the present. Coming off of a bye and facing a leaky Raiders defense, I have zero Week 11 concerns. That said, the Dolphins get the Jets, Cowboys, and Ravens (in Baltimore) from Weeks 15-17, a potentially fatal flaw during the fantasy postseason.

On Monday morning, you might have the opportunity to sell Tagovailoa as a QB who is past his bye, has elite playmakers, and is coming off of a huge week. That’s a tempting package for a manager looking for a short-term spurt to make the playoffs.

Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have not yet had their byes — a window could open for you to get creative to acquire either of them in a deal with Tagovailoa and another piece in the right situation. Keep an eye on it.

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs: This season has been disappointing from Jacobs after what he gave us last season, and, to be honest, I’m not sure it gets better in a significant way for the stretch run.

His 53 carries over the past two weeks need to be taken with a grain of salt — they came against the dumpster fire New York franchises where the Raiders were operating in a favorable script. Even then, remove a single run from those two games, and Jacobs averaged 3.3 yards per carry.

MORE: Josh Jacobs Fantasy Value Week 11

The role is safe, and the ability to find paydirt is a skill we know he has, so don’t take this as me saying that Jacobs is in any danger of being benched in fantasy lineups. He’s not. But I do think the floor is worth mentioning as leagues begin to approach their trade deadline.

With just seven catches over the past five games after grabbing 23 passes in his first five, the versatility seems to be fading, which just adds another path to failure.

I’m starting Jacobs if I have him; I’m just shorting his stock the rest of the way if I have the opportunity to do so.

De’Von Achane: All reports suggest that the explosive rookie has been setback-free during his rehab (knee) and should be all systems go for this week after a stay on injured reserve.

I’m not sure I have to sell you on what Achane is capable of: Three straight 100-yard games and 12.1 yards per carry this season. Yes, that’s quite good. #analysis

Now, those games did come against the Broncos, Bills, and Giants. Those defenses scare exactly no one, but the production is still off-the-charts impressive. The production isn’t sticky, but his 11.5 touches in his last two games might be, given the output of Raheem Mostert and the presence of Jeff Wilson Jr.

MORE: Fantasy News Tracker

This matchup very much looks like those three that Achane exploited, making this a tough spot to sell you on extreme regression.

I have Achane ranked as an RB2 and a starter in all formats. The range of outcomes is wide due to the combination of big-play upside and touch downside. I’m off of him for projected chalk reasons in DFS, but you’re locking him in for your season-long formats without much of a second thought.

Raheem Mostert: Through 10 weeks, Mostert is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and has scored 13 times. He’s been nothing short of phenomenal in posting seven top-20 finishes and a trio of top-three finishes.

In the midst of ALL of that production, he has two games with more than 13 carries and just two games with more than three targets. Achane is coming back this week to muddy this backfield against a defense that rarely creates pressure and can be systematically picked apart through the air (bottom 10 in opponent CMP%).

There are a lot of paths to failure here. Of course, a Miami blowout win is also a possibility, and that would allow both Achane and Mostert to produce in a significant way. With my rankings, I’m sitting on the fence a bit — Achane is a high-end RB2, while Mostert checks in as a low-end RB2, both carrying a reasonably wide range of outcomes due to a lower touch projection.

Jeff Wilson Jr. and Salvon Ahmed: With Achane back, I don’t believe either of these backs is worth rostering long-term. Maybe you want to hold onto Wilson through this week, wanting Achane to prove his health, and that’s fine. But if you need roster flexibility this week, I have zero concerns about cutting ties with either of these backs ahead of Week 11.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers: Over the past three games, Adams hasn’t been overly productive (6.2 fantasy points per game per the Week 11 Cheat Sheet), but he has out-targeted Meyers 27-8 and seems to have reestablished himself as the top option in this very limited passing game.

I’m treating Adams the same way I treated Olave when we saw a return to elite target counts without much production in Weeks 6-8 — grin and bear it.

These targets are empty calories right now, and they may continue to be as much. But you drafted Adams with the thought that his talent could overcome QB question marks, and I’m okay with doubling down on that bet and viewing him as a mid-range WR2.

MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings

The math on Meyers is a little less optimistic. The quality of targets in Vegas these days is obviously low, which makes his sudden dip in quantity all the more concerning. Over his past three games, 42.8% of Meyers’ fantasy production came on a single run that resulted in a score. Outside of that, he’s been useless, and I’m worried that this is the start of a struggle that is prolonged.

I have Meyers ranked as a very low-end Flex option this week, next to another impossible-to-trust receiver who has enough talent to keep him on the fringes of relevance in Calvin Ridley.

Tyreek Hill: By no means am I sweating the dud in Germany to open Week 9 (his third finish outside of the top 25 this season). He caught at least eight passes for the third straight game, and I’ll trust that volume with Hill’s skill set every single time.

Hill has yet to be held under 110 receiving yards in consecutive games this season, a trend I think he can extend through this week against a Raiders defense that rarely makes opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable.

Jaylen Waddle: You didn’t pay up for Waddle this summer with the thought that, through 10 weeks, he’d have five finishes as WR30 or worse and only one finish better than WR12.

It’s worth noting that Waddle suffered a knee injury in Germany, though all signs point to him being a full-go in this spot. The volume has been acceptable (6+ targets in five straight games, 8.6 targets per game over that run), and with his aDOT down 19.2% from last season, I think his bump in reception rate is here to stay, if not improve further.

MORE: Why Jaylen Waddle Is the Miami Dolphins’ Most Important Player in Season’s Second Half

I’m of the belief that Waddle’s second half of the season looks better than the first half, and that starts on Sunday – he’s a strong WR2 for me!

Tight Ends

Michael Mayer: The touchdown was a thing of beauty last week and showed some of the physical profile that this rookie holds as he develops. I’m excited to watch Mayer grow with time… that time just isn’t right now.

That score was Mayer’s first of the season, and it’s been more than a month since the last time he reached 20 receiving yards. He doesn’t matter in redraft leagues, and I have a hard time seeing that change anytime soon.

Should You Start Davante Adams or Tyler Lockett?

We saw signs of life from Tyler Lockett last week and that’s enough to earn him a start in this spot.

Do I think Adams is the more talented player? Yes, but the difference at the quarterback position is too great for me to overlook. Both receivers are lower now in my rankings than they were coming into the season, but if forced to play one, it’s Lockett over Adams for me.

Should You Start Raheem Mostert or Najee Harris?

Najee Harris has looked better of late, but this is a brutal spot for a committee back without the edge in the pass game. With Achane back for Miami, there is certainly concern for Mostert’s volume moving forward.

That said, Achane is unlikely to dominate the backfield touches right upon his return. Harris might hold a slight edge in opportunities this weekend, but Mostert’s efficiency should more than offset that disadvantage.

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Picks for Week 11: Chuba Hubbard, Rashee Rice, Diontae Johnson, and Others

Kyle Soppe
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Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Picks for Week 11: Chuba Hubbard, Rashee Rice, Diontae Johnson, and Others

Not all fantasy football decisions are easy — most aren’t. We are talking about the thinnest of margins when it comes to projecting the fringe options for lineups. Here is the fantasy start ’em, sit ’em players that we’ve been asked most about this week within the PFN Fantasy Discord, as well as on X (formerly known as Twitter). Let’s get to it!

Fantasy Start ‘Em Picks for Week 11

Sam Howell, QB, Washington Commanders (vs. Giants)

Some players are placed in perfect spots for our game, and others are Bijan Robinson. Sam Howell has cleared 40 pass attempts in six of his past seven games and has posted five top 10s in his past six.

In addition to cruising past 300 passing yards in each of his past three games, Howell’s on pace for nearly 300 yards on the ground.

At price, he’s a great DFS buy against the fourth-worst pass defense in terms of yards per attempt. It’s difficult to rank his mean outcome better than QB12 this week, but that’s more a product of plus-matchups for this range of quarterbacks.

Here’s how I have the back end of the QB1 tier stacking up this week:

9) Jared Goff vs. CHI
10) C.J. Stroud vs. ARI
11) Kyler Murray at HOU
12) Sam Howell vs. Giants
13) Brock Purdy vs. TB
14) Trevor Lawrence vs. TEN

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills (vs. Jets)

After losing a fumble on his first carry of the game, James Cook was benched for a few possessions. I’m not sure that I buy that the benching lit a fire under him, but Cook did finish Week 10 with 109 yards on 12 carries against the Broncos and looked as good as the numbers suggest.

MORE: Is It Time To Trade James Cook in Fantasy Football?

The fact that he has one rushing score on 120 carries and is generally not used in the same zip code as the red zone is obviously a concern. That usage pattern prevents him from moving up my ranks, but it doesn’t stop him from being a weekly lineup lock — even in a tough matchup like this.

Cook’s average finish has been in the low-end RB2 range this season, and that’s where I expect him to land this weekend.

Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Browns)

Well, that was disappointing. After posting an average finish of WR17 in his first three games back from injury, Diontae Johnson caught just one of four targets (he did have an end-zone target, so that’s a start) against the Packers for a whopping 17 yards.

Johnson is half a dozen spots lower in my ranks this week than last, but most of that is matchup/schedule-driven. I’m still in. Last week, the Steelers had 13 more rush attempts than passes and were never forced to pass in a significant way — so they didn’t.

I don’t see that being the case this week (or next, for that matter, in Cincinnati), and that has me penciling Johnson back into all my lineups. The 33.3% target share that he posted in Weeks 8-9 wasn’t a mistake, and if the passing pie is larger, I’m trusting him to return value (prefer him to Tyler Lockett, Amari Cooper, and Tank Dell this weekend).

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Eagles)

It feels like we are dangerously close to a full breakout. Rashee Rice scored on the first drive in Germany against the Dolphins, and I was ready. I had tweets drafted, I alerted my family members, I was looking at Rice jersey prices and continuing to workshop nickname options — it was all systems go to celebrate the moment that we’d been waiting a month for.

He caught one pass the rest of the day. Sad Kyle.

The floor has been strong (top 35 in four of his past five games), but can we PLEASE get a breakout on national TV in a Super Bowl rematch? Pretty please? Speaking of that matchup to end last season, JuJu Smith-Schuster earned 36% of the targets.

We’ve seen what Rice is this season, so the fact that he was able to find space in the short passing game against a version of this pass defense that was better than what the Eagles currently own is noteworthy.

I’m inserting Rice into my Flex. Again. Let’s end Week 11 with a bang!

Fantasy Sit ‘Em Picks for Week 11

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Titans)

This is a great matchup. The Jaguars’ WR room might finally be healthy, and Travis Etienne Jr. is running hard and demanding attention.

If you had given me that profile back in August, I’d tell you that I’d have Trevor Lawrence as a top-five QB with ease. Heck, if August Kyle was feeling spicy, he may have even told you that Lawrence would lead the position in scoring in that spot.

MORE: Should You Cut Trevor Lawrence From Your Fantasy Roster?

Life comes at you fast, though. Lawrence has thrown multiple TD passes against one opponent this season (Colts) and has thrown for 300 yards just once. He’s struggling in every respect this season and hasn’t been getting any help from his friends (5.3% drop rate).

Like Tony Pollard at the RB position, I think it’s very possible that Lawrence peaks during the fantasy playoffs — Buccaneers and Panthers in Weeks 16-17 — and rewards those with an absurd level of loyalty. That fading hope is why I’m still rostering Lawrence, but as my QB14 in Week 11, I’m not starting him until he gives me a reason to.

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers (vs. Cowboys)

It’s clear that Chuba Hubbard is offensive play-caller Thomas Brown’s preferred running back. It’s also clear that this team isn’t built to support a running back.

Game script is always going to be an issue (this week is no different), and without absolutely elite volume, it’s hard to start Hubbard with any level of confidence.

Over the past three weeks, Hubbard has netted 109 yards on 40 carries. That’s a whopping 2.7 ypc for a team that needs a GPS to find the red zone (41 points total in those three games).

Hubbard should remain rostered because he’s a starting RB, but he’s in danger of being ranked behind multiple backs in Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and Chicago.

Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns (vs. Steelers)

Despite some very questionable quarterback play, Amari Cooper has been a top-30 receiver in three straight and four of five games since Cleveland’s Week 5 bye. In fact, he has reached 89 receiving yards in each of his past three games — the first time in his career he has had a run like that.

2023 season

  • Cooper: 715 receiving yards
  • Next two leaders on the Browns combined: 691 receiving yards

With Deshaun Watson ruled out for the remainder of the season, any hopes of sustained QB play that emerged from the second half of Week 10 are now gone. I have no worries about Cooper’s role as the primary target earner, but the value of said targets is a major concern. (P.J. Walker has completed 49% of his passes this season with one touchdown and five interceptions.)

MORE: Amari Cooper’s Fantasy Value Following Deshaun Watson’s Season-Ending Injury

As a result of the QB news for this week specifically, Cooper falls 10 spots in my WR rankings and now resides outside of my top 30. He carries more risk than reward in this matchup, and I’m treating him in a similar vein to Jakobi Meyers. The role and talent put them on our radar, but the situation is too much to overlook when it comes to locking in lineups.

Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at 49ers)

We entered the season expecting Chris Godwin to be the consistent Buccaneers receiver, and he’s been that. It’s just been in a consistently underwhelming manner.

The veteran has finished outside of the top 25 wide receivers in seven of nine games this season and has just one score on his ledger. The floor has been acceptable (Week 3 was the last time he finished outside the top 40), but in an era of wide-open offenses that encourage big plays from WRs, the lack of a ceiling is concerning.

The 49ers are a top-six team in terms of time of possession and limiting opponent yards per pass attempt. This is a dangerous spot for a receiver who lacks one-play upside.

Godwin is just inside of my top 35 receivers this week, ranking behind most of the others with consistent volume and ahead of the Gabe Davis’ of the world who rely on one play.

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Players To Target Include Quentin Johnston, Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, and Others

Kyle Soppe
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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Players To Target Include Quentin Johnston, Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, and Others

The Los Angeles Chargers‘ fantasy football preview takes a look at their WR2 position, while the Green Bay Packers‘ fantasy outlook focuses on if you can trust any of their skill-position players.

Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers

  • Spread: Chargers -3
  • Total: 44.5
  • Chargers implied points: 20.8
  • Packers implied points: 23.8

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert: Herbert completed 27 passes against the Lions last week, the fourth time this season he has hit that total, giving him access to elite upside.

The Packers blitz at the seventh-highest rate in the league, which is a layup for Kellen Moore’s offense to exploit. Jaire Alexander (shoulder) sat out last week, and if Green Bay is missing its top defender again, my ranking of Herbert at QB6 might not be high enough. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he was the highest-scoring player at the position on the DFS main slate.

Jordan Love: With a pair of touchdowns against the Steelers, Love posted his best fantasy day since September. But it shouldn’t matter to anyone.

He couldn’t go through four quarters without flashing the flaws in his decision-making (52.5% completion rate with two interceptions), confirming that his floor is way too low to consider him roster-worthy in any single-QB format.

MORE: Fantasy News Tracker

This matchup against the second-worst per-pass defense makes Love a low-end QB2 that I would play in Superflex settings, but that’s as optimistic as I can be.

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler: The All-World fantasy RB has scored five times in six games this season and logged a season-high 19 carries last week against Detroit. He was stopped three times at the 1-yard line, meaning his productive night could have been even better.

Ekeler has seen 22 targets over the past three weeks and should be considered as valuable as any player in fantasy outside of Christian McCaffrey moving forward.

Aaron Jones: He was unable to build on a strong Week 9 performance, and now we’re back to worrying about the floor. On the bright side, this is a plus matchup, and Jones was targeted six times on 21 routes last week.

Jones is a versatile back, which profiles him as a strong RB2 in this spot, but understand that he is far from safe.

AJ Dillon: Big plays are rare when Green Bay has the ball, so Dillon’s 40-yard run last week against the Steelers (his first rush of more than 15 yards this season per the Week 11 Cheat Sheet) was good to see. Of course, he averaged under 4.0 yards per carry on his other attempts and pulled in just one of his three targets.

Dillon’s size and Jones’ lack of health were supposed to make the former a back that you could Flex when you’re stuck, with the thought being that a TD plunge could salvage his day. With one score on 115 touches this season, I’m here to tell you that if you think you’re chasing TD equity by holding onto Dillon, you’ve misread the situation.

I’m holding onto Dillon in most situations, but if you play in a shallow league and need every spot on your bench to hold weekly upside, I could see cutting ties with him.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen: Week 10’s star racked up 175 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 11 catches against the Lions, reminding us just how dominant he can be (this was his first 100-yard game since September).

The Packers have limited WR1s in consecutive weeks — Diontae Johnson and Cooper Kupp totaled just three catches and 65 yards on 11 targets — but that’s not nearly enough to scare me in the least. Allen is my WR6 this week.

Quentin Johnston and Jalen Guyton: In a shootout against the Lions, both Johnston and Guyton played 35 snaps, caught four passes, and scored. Not ideal.

All we ask for in Los Angeles is separation when it comes to the WR2 role behind Allen (sans Joshua Palmer), and, if anything, that role is getting more cloudy, not clearer.

MORE: Jalen Guyton Fantasy Waiver Wire Week 11

Both of these receivers deserve to be rostered. Neither of them deserves to be played.

Stacking your bench with exposure to offenses with upside is a sharp play, but don’t get carried away — neither owns a stable role that we can count on.

Christian Watson: You, me, and Watson — we all have the same number of games with 40+ receiving yards over the past month. If Watson is currently a part of your process when it comes to determining your Flex position, you’re holding onto your priors too long.

We are through 10 weeks, and Watson has made one play of note…one.

Romeo Doubs: The second-year WR has now scored in each of Green Bay’s past three losses. We saw Doubs earn targets at a high rate as September came to a close, but that’s a thing of the past with a handful of mouths for an underwhelming Love to feed (no more than five targets in four of his past five games).

Doubs is my highest-ranked Packer receiver this week, but he’s still on the outside looking in at my top 40.

Jayden Reed: In Week 10, Reed scored on a pass intended for him for the first time since Week 2 and continues to show promise. He has caught 15 of 18 targets over the past month, the rare efficient piece in this otherwise depressing offense.

If Reed had a path to targets, I’d be interested in considering his raw talent as a Flex option, but he doesn’t. Last week, eight different Packers saw 3-7 targets. With a lack of quality and quantity for all members of this passing game, none of them are worth your mental energy — even in a plus matchup.

MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings

If you have a good read on this pass-catching corps, bet the props or build a top-heavy DFS lineup. I’m not going there in a season-long setting where a loss this time of year can cost you a playoff berth.

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett and Donald Parham Jr.: The tough part here is that, by themselves, the Everett or Parham profile would interest me. But together on a team that also gave 14 routes to the vaunted tandem of Stone Smartt/Nick Vannett, makes it impossible to go this route with any sort of conviction.

Parham held the edge over Everett in snaps last week (32-24), but it was the latter with a 17-15 advantage in routes.

The TE position is difficult enough when you have one low-volume option to deal with (see Musgrave, Luke), and when that tiny pie is split into pieces, you’re often left wanting more.

I prefer Everett to Parham if you’re going down this road in a DFS setting, but neither is of much interest to me in redraft.

Luke Musgrave: We are looking at the definition of a blob tight end. There are some athletic tools to buy into with the rookie, and they’ve allowed him to make three splash plays over the past two weeks. However, over the course of four quarters, he is consistently handicapped by poor QB play and inexperience.

We’ve seen Musgrave make plays, which is enough to keep him on your radar as a player to keep tabs on if you’re in the streaming game. But until we see consistent usage or efficiency, he’s going to rank outside of my top 15 at the position.

Should You Start Aaron Jones or James Cook?

Give me Jones. I have them ranked back-to-back, so we are splitting hairs to a degree here, but Cook’s lack of scoring equity scares me in a tough matchup with the Jets.
There’s no doubt that playing Jones is something of a leap of faith given his disappointing output this season, but the risk is worth it in this advantageous matchup.

Should You Start Luke Musgrave or Tyler Conklin?

Tyler Conklin offers very little upside, but his floor has been steady for two months now and his usage is trending in the right direction. Both of these tight ends are on my DFS radar, but for redraft where I prefer to chase the floor at the position, I prefer the stable role of Conklin over the wide range of outcomes that comes with betting on a Packer.

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Players To Target Include Najee Harris, Jerome Ford, Amari Cooper, and Others

Kyle Soppe
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Players To Target Include Najee Harris, Jerome Ford, Amari Cooper, and Others

The Pittsburgh Steelers fantasy preview evaluates Diontae Johnson after a tough week, while the fantasy football outlook for the Cleveland Browns dives into life without Deshaun Watson.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

  • Spread: Browns -4
  • Total: 36
  • Steelers implied points: 16
  • Browns implied points: 20

Quarterbacks

Kenny Pickett: After completing 31 passes in the season opener, Pickett hasn’t fed his teammates 20 passes a single time. With just a single touchdown pass over the past month, we are looking at a player who is worth benching in Superflex leagues for a WR3 or running back who projects for 15 touches.

Yes, it’s that bad.

Running Backs

Najee Harris: Have you ever taken time off of work and come back rejuvenated? Maybe it’s because you love your job and just missed the grind. Maybe it’s because you spent the off time with your inlaws, and work is a welcomed return to normalcy. Whatever the case may be, we’ve all had it happen — that’s why you take time off.

Harris is one of us! He looked cooked earlier this season, but since the bye, he’s produced RB1 numbers in three of four games. This Steelers team continues to achieve above expectations, and they surely aren’t going to opt to bank on Pickett winning them games.

Remember the case I made against Lamar Jackson? That the team didn’t need him to produce to succeed? Pittsburgh is the opposite, and we saw this down the season as he scored in four of his final five games.

I have some sustainability concerns (dead even split in snaps, and it’s unlikely that he sees four targets on nine routes as he did against the Packers), but the touch floor demands he is ranked as a fantasy starter, even in this difficult matchup.

Jaylen Warren: With 223 total yards (7.3 yards per carry) over the past weeks, Warren is showing us that what we thought was possible is, in fact, possible. Sadly for Warren managers, his peak performance coincides with strong Harris production, and thus, his standing in this backfield hasn’t expanded in a major way.

With multiple catches in eight of nine games, Warren’s skill set is that of a stable Flex option. Don’t lose sight of the fact that he didn’t have 10 carries in a game prior to this recent run — the touch count is far from a lock.

Both Steelers backs are inside of my top 30 at the position, something I didn’t anticipate back in August.

Jerome Ford: There is no denying who “the guy” is in Cleveland these days. Ford out-snapped Hunt 50-28 and held a 26-11 edge in routes, making him the clear-cut feature back in an offense that aims to control the tempo and grind out games.

That role resulted in him clearing 100 rushing yards in Baltimore, but he was again vultured in close by Hunt. Despite the solid workload, Ford has had one touchdown on his ledger since September ended, and that has capped his upside in a significant way (one top-15 finish over that stretch).

MORE: Soppe’s Week 11 RB Rankings

In this instance, I’m a slave to the process. I have Ford ranked as a low-end RB2, just ahead of the touchdown-reliant backs in Gus Edwards and Brian Robinson. Basic thought: A player with volume is more likely to score than a touchdown-dependent RB is to suddenly earn volume.

Kareem Hunt: He’s not really making a run at the lead back in Cleveland (yet to have 15 carries in a game this season), and he’s not even doing the thing we thought he’d specialize in (one catch over the past month). Yet, with a score in five straight games, he’s returned starting value every week since the bye. Per the Week 11 Cheat Sheet:

  • Week 6 vs. SF: RB10
  • Week 7 at IND: RB11
  • Week 8 at SEA: RB16
  • Week 9 vs. ARI: RB20
  • Week 10 at BAL: RB29

As you can see, his weekly finishes are trending in the wrong direction, and if the touchdown luck flips, he’s really in trouble. We all know that the sportsbooks are smarter than most, and Hunt’s rushing prop came through last week (32 yards, over his projected total of 26.5). The risk is far greater than the potential of him continuing to rack up scores at this unsustainable rate.

MORE: Kareem Hunt Fantasy Value 

Hunt is outside of my top 35 at the position, and I think there’s a better chance he finishes outside of the top 45 running backs than inside the top 25.

Wide Receivers

Diontae Johnson: Well, that was disappointing. After posting an average finish of WR17 in his first three games back from injury, Johnson caught just one of four targets (he did have an end-zone target, so that’s a start) against the Packers for a whopping 17 yards.

He’s half a dozen spots lower in my ranks this week than last, but most of that is matchup/schedule-driven. I’m still in. Last week, the Steelers had 13 more rush attempts than passes and were never forced to pass in a significant way — so they didn’t.

I don’t see that being the case this week (or next, for that matter, in Cincinnati), and that has me penciling Johnson back into all my lineups. The 33.3% target share that he posted in Weeks 8-9 wasn’t a mistake, and if the passing pie is larger, I’m trusting Johnson to return value (prefer him to Tyler Lockett, Amari Cooper, and Tank Dell this weekend).

George Pickens: As mentioned above, the lack of volume in this passing game left every Steeler without much in the way of opportunities. Pickens saw the same four targets that Johnson did — he just turned them into three catches and 45 yards.

I’m tossing out Week 10 and approaching Week 11 the same way I did last week — Johnson is the elite target earner who possesses the much more appealing floor/ceiling combination.

In Weeks 8-9, Pickens turned 10 targets in 21 yards, a lack of efficiency that is terrifying if the volume isn’t a given. Pickens is firmly in the all-or-nothing tier with Gabe Davis and Jahan Dotson, landing him just inside of my top 40 at the position.

Amari Cooper: Despite some very questionable quarterback play, Cooper has been a top-30 receiver in three straight and four of five games since Cleveland’s Week 5 bye. In fact, he has reached 89 receiving yards in each of his past three games — the first time in his career he has had a run like that.

2023 Season

  • Cooper: 715 receiving yards
  • Next two leaders on the Browns combined: 691 receiving yards

With Deshaun Watson ruled out for the remainder of the season, any hopes of sustained QB play that emerged from the second half of Week 10 are now gone. I have no worries about Cooper’s role as the primary target earner, but the value of said targets is a major concern (P.J. Walker has completed 49% of his passes this season with one touchdown and five interceptions).

MORE: Deshaun Watson Injury — Fantasy Fallout

As a result of the QB news for this week specifically, Cooper falls 10 spots in my WR rankings and now resides outside of my top 30. He carries more risk than reward in this matchup, and I’m treating him in a similar vein to Jakobi Meyers. The role and talent put them on our radar, but the situation is too much to overlook when it comes to locking in lineups.

Elijah Moore: The touchdown last week resulted in Moore’s first usable week of the season, but he has yet to reach 60 receiving yards in a game this year and carries a floor that is more detrimental than his ceiling is helpful.

I was hopeful that Moore’s role in the slot would provide access to a reasonable floor, but those hopes were dashed when Watson decided to go under the knife. Moore is no longer a player that needs to remain rostered.

Quick note: Cedric Tillman ran a route on 90.9% of Watson’s dropbacks last week. I don’t trust the volume in this passing game to make him roster-worthy in redraft leagues, but it’s a DFS name to remember if you’re in a punt situation.

Tight Ends

David Njoku: Through seven weeks, Njoku wasn’t roster-worthy. He didn’t have a single top-15 performance over that stretch and lacked upside in an offense that was struggling.

Recently, however, not only have we seen signs of life, but we’ve also seen enough to make him a top-12 option until otherwise noted. With nine targets or a score in four straight games, Njoku has returned top-12 value at the position for a month straight, and the next month schedule-wise, isn’t all that daunting.

With Watson out for the rest of 2023, Njoku’s path to a weekly spot in my top 10 has vanished. However, I think he can stay atop the TE blob and thus be a usable (even if underwhelming at times) piece at the position for fantasy managers.

Should You Start Najee Harris or Raheem Mostert?

Harris has looked better of late, but this is a brutal spot for a committee back without the edge in the passing game. With De’Von Achane back for Miami, there is certainly a concern for Mostert’s volume moving forward.

That said, Achane is unlikely to dominate the backfield touches immediately. Harris might hold a slight edge in opportunities this weekend, but Mostert’s efficiency should more than offset that disadvantage.

Should You Start Amari Cooper or Rashee Rice?

Give me Rashee Rice in this spot. I would have said it was close if Watson was active, but with him out for the season, I’ll happily back Patrick Mahomes’ top receiver, who has seen a red-zone target in seven of nine games this season.

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Players To Target Include Tony Pollard, Brandin Cooks, Adam Thielen, and Others

Kyle Soppe
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Players To Target Include Tony Pollard, Brandin Cooks, Adam Thielen, and Others

The Dallas Cowboys‘ fantasy preview focuses on the difficult Tony Pollard conversation, while the Carolina Panthers‘ fantasy football outlook takes a peek at the expectations of Adam Thielen.

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

  • Spread: Cowboys -10.5
  • Total: 42.5
  • Cowboys implied points: 26.5
  • Panthers implied points: 16

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott: Sometimes other people just say it better.

“What’s understood ain’t gotta be explained.
So for those who understand, meet Rayne.”

OK, so I took a little creative liberty with that last word from Lil’ Wayne’s original lyrical genius, but Rayne Dakota Prescott has been nothing short of special in the three weeks since the bye (1,082 passing yards with 11 TDs), and now he gets the third-worst scoring defense in the league.

Prescott is my QB5 this week, and the only excuse I can see for not playing him would be “too chalky” in a DFS situation.

Bryce Young: Just a reminder that not all development is linear. Young is still a dynasty option, even if he has three times as many games with multiple interceptions as he does multiple touchdowns.

As far as 2023 is concerned, Young can be benched for running backs with a high touch floor or receivers with 100+ air-yard projection in Superflex situations.

Running Backs

Tony Pollard: *BREAKING NEWS*

By the power vested in me by the brain trust here at PFN, I now pronounce “rostering Tony Pollard” the 10th circle of hell.

There’s simply nothing you can do at this point. Pollard has one top-25 finish at the position since September (RB38 last week) but continues to get work for a strong offense. In Week 10, Pollard was …

  • Not one of the three Cowboys with a rushing score
  • Not one of the four Cowboys with a 20+ yard touch

He has touched the ball 151 times since he last scored. That includes three instances in which the Cowboys scored at least 38 points.

The process of starting Pollard remains solid, if for no other reason than it’s hard to find this sort of usage (18.2 touches per game) as you travel down the rankings.

MORE: Fantasy News Tracker

I’m not strong enough mentally to bench his role, let alone in a good matchup like this. There’s no way I’d consider selling Pollard for pennies on the dollar. There’s also no way that I’m comfortable starting him in a must-win situation.

That, friends, is why those of us with Pollard are living in the 10th circle of hell. I can provide one glimmer of hope — Dante and Virgil did end up escaping from hell. There was the intentional mention of stars at the very end, a medieval symbol for divine wisdom.

So could it be that we are being tested, and those of us who chose to stick it out will be rewarded with time? Am I way overthinking this because I’m up to my eyeballs in Pollard shares?

He’s dropping down my ranks, but Pollard is still an RB2 for me in all formats.

Chuba Hubbard: It’s clear that Hubbard is offensive play-caller Thomas Brown’s preferred running back. It’s also clear that this team isn’t built to support a running back.

Game script is an issue (this week is no different), and without absolutely elite volume, it’s hard to start Hubbard with confidence.

Over the past three weeks, Hubbard has netted 109 yards on 40 carries. That’s a whopping 2.7 ypc for a team that needs a GPS to find the red zone (41 points total in those three games). Hubbard should remain rostered because he’s a starting RB, but in danger of being ranked behind multiple backs in Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and Chicago.

Miles Sanders: He played 23 snaps to Hubbard’s 30 on Thursday night, closing the gap in a meaningless development for fantasy managers. Sanders is a highly paid specialist; he ran a route on 82.6% of his snaps last week, and my under 21.5 rushing yards bet was never a sweat (two carries for -5 yards).

MORE: Fantasy Football Cut List Week 11

Sanders is rostered in a ton of leagues. He doesn’t need to be. Use his roster space for a player with a more clear path to any semblance of upside.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb is great, we know that. On Sunday, he became the first player in the Super Bowl era to have back-to-back-to-back games with at least 10 catches and 150 yards. He has been handed the ball in two of those games and has four touchdowns over this run — elite.

You’re playing him. That’s easy.

I want to give the Cowboys a round of applause for knowing that this very niche record was within reach and force-feeding Lamb a pair of targets to open the fourth quarter of a 42-7 game to get him there. Some underappreciated intern or someone along those lines was likely responsible for bringing this opportunity to light, and I want him/her to get a mention!

Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks: Both of these secondary receivers scored in the blowout win over the Giants, but they’re headed in very different directions.

Cooks’ volume is a general concern (the 10 targets on Sunday came on the heels of 4.1 targets per game), but with a score in three of his past four games, there’s something there.

MORE: How ‘One Play’ Could Be the Game-Changer for Cowboys’ WR Michael Gallup

On the flip side, Gallup simply made the most of two targets. He has eight targets in total during this Prescott hot streak, a level of usage that isn’t near fantasy-relevant.

Jalen Tolbert held a six-snap edge over Gallup through three-quarters last week per the Week 11 Cheat Sheet, hinting that Gallup is closer to the WR4 than the WR2 role in Dallas. Cooks rank outside of my top 40 at the position and isn’t a receiver I’m currently comfortable flexing.

Adam Thielen: We were spoiled early in the season, and that set an unfair expectation. Thielen’s average position finish from Weeks 2-6 was WR11, but since returning from the break, he’s 0-3 when it comes to posting top 30 weeks.

That’s life with a rookie quarterback. Thielen’s early-season production isn’t likely to come back, but things should be better than they’ve been. He posted a 29.4% target share in the disappointing effort last week, a usage that is comforting.

Thielen is a middling WR2 for me this week in a tough matchup, with the hope being that the game script helps him bounce back from these recent struggles.

Tight Ends

Jake Ferguson: The Prescott heater has translated well to Ferguson, as he has posted three straight top-10 finishes. He scored in all three of those games and has totaled 21 targets – firmly separating himself from the vaunted TE blob.

Would I love to see him with more than two 50-yard games on his résumé? Of course, but such is life at the tight-end position. I’m comfortable labeling Ferguson as a top-10 option at the position this week and moving forward.

Should You Start Tony Pollard or James Conner?

This Pollard situation is as difficult as it gets, and I’m taking the easy way out in a spot like this – give me the volume and usage of Conner. Pollard is struggling at such a level right now for fantasy purposes, so I have no issue in siding with a “safer” option like Conner who looked like he was 100% healthy in his return to action last weekend.

Should You Start Darrell Henderson or Chuba Hubbard?

I prefer Henderson in this spot due to my faith in Matthew Stafford giving this offense a reasonable floor.

I can’t say that about Bryce Young in Carolina. Hubbard is the featured back for the Panthers this season. But with him averaging under 3.0 yards per carry since Thomas Brown installed him as the lead back, the upside simply isn’t there.

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Shedeur Sanders Injury Update: Everything We Know About Colorado QB

Ian Valentino
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Shedeur Sanders Injury Update: Everything We Know About Colorado QB

The Colorado Buffaloes headlined Friday night’s college football slate, taking on the Washington State Cougars. In the first quarter, Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders suffered an apparent injury. Sanders returned to the field near the end of the first quarter but then suffered a separate injury in the second quarter.

We have the latest injury updates on the future NFL Draft prospect.

Update: Head coach Deion Sanders said, “Travis is good,” during the postgame news conference. He said there haven’t been discussions as to whether Sanders will play again this season.

Latest Injury News on Shedeur Sanders

Sanders, one of the breakout prospects of the 2023 season, left the field almost midway through the second quarter. Colorado snapped the ball before Sanders was set. A defender going after the ball made contact with his upper back. He gingerly got up and was taken to the locker room.

In the first quarter, Sanders was hit by Washington State pass rusher Ron Stone Jr., fumbling the ball that was scooped for a touchdown return. He appeared to land on his throwing shoulder and held his arm close to his chest while walking off the field.

The junior passer missed the following drive but was seen on the sideline warming up. We’ll continue to monitor Sanders’ activity and statements from the team. Check back for updates throughout the evening.

What Are Joe Milton III’s NFL Draft Prospects?

Dalton Miller
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What Are Joe Milton III’s NFL Draft Prospects?

Myles Garrett was “built in a lab.” Anthony Richardson is the closest thing we’ve seen to Garrett at quarterback. The question is if you could build the perfect player for their position from scratch, what would they look like? Joe Milton III makes the case for being a player that abuts that Create-a-Player mold. But quarterbacking is a skill game. Does Milton have that side?

Is Joe Milton III an NFL Player?

The short answer is no.

Josh Heupel’s offense already makes the evaluation process difficult. The structure and concepts he runs at Tennessee are a far cry from NFL structures. In Tennessee’s offense, the answers are on the back of the test, and nothing is keeping you from flipping the page over and cheating.

The offense maximizes the use of space to create throwing lanes that won’t exist at the next level. It allows the quarterback to lock onto the first read in the progression for ages as they uncover in the intermediate areas of the field.

Hendon Hooker operated this offense like it was second nature. He threw with anticipation, consistently made the right decision, and operated like a pro within the pocket as a passer. Even with Heupel’s funky painting, it was easy to tell he had an NFL skill set. Milton does not.

There is a massive difference between being a quarterback and being a combination of a great athlete and a functional passer. Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson comes to mind there, and who could forget about Buffalo legend Tyree Jackson? Jefferson has completed 65% or more of his passes in each of the past three seasons, is a massive 6’3″, 240 pounds, and happens to be a great athlete.

But quarterbacking is a skill, not an athletic profile. Milton hasn’t shown the requisite skill set that would make a passer successful at the next level.

What Makes Milton and Anthony Richardson So Different?

Anthony Richardson measured 6’4 2/8″, 244 pounds, and ran a 4.43 40-yard dash, and he jumped better than any quarterback in NFL Combine history.

Milton is listed at 6’5″, 235 pounds, and he can absolutely scoot when given a runway. Milton doesn’t have Richardson’s 0-60 acceleration, but he has great long speed. And for as unbelievable as Richardson’s arm is, Milton might have even more in the tank.

So how did Richardson command top-five draft capital while Milton is probably a seventh-round dart throw at best? Richardson had accuracy concerns too, after all.

Age is one factor, but it is likely the most minor in differentiating the two players. Richardson was very young — Milton is over two years older than him.

It’s important to note that Milton has been usurped by the likes of Cade McNamara at Michigan and then Hooker at Tennessee. Although Hooker is an NFL player, he’s not a blue-chip talent. It took Milton six years to secure a starting role in college, and he only got the job because Hooker went to the NFL.

However, the most significant differences are easily observable on-field tasks. Richardson had some inconsistent lower-body mechanics that led to off-target passes, which is something that continued as a rookie before he lost his season to an injury. Milton is scattershot to the intermediate levels of the field in clean pockets with his sequencing in check. He possesses general inaccuracies, which almost never fix themselves.

Richarson was also a much different runner. Despite his 240-pound frame, he was incredibly agile, creative, and powerful as a runner. Milton is big and powerful, but he’s not nearly as creative or dangerous on the hoof.

But the biggest difference comes on the operational side of things. Richardson displayed a high-level processing ability in his first year as a collegiate starter and an innate ability to make micro-adjustments against pressure to create throwing hallways as pressure bore down on him. If he’d consistently shown that, he would have been the top pick.

Milton is a see-it, throw-it, and touchdown-to-checkdown passer. Heupel’s offense gets the ball out of his hands immediately or looks to attack streaking wide receivers downfield. Milton has shown he can throw moonballs into a bucket 65 yards downfield, but that’s the distinction between passing and quarterbacking.

We’ve spent hundreds of words here describing what JP Acosta so succinctly describes. Milton is the definition of flash over substance.

According to the NFL Mock Draft Database, Milton peaked at No. 13 on the charts on Aug. 1, during the summer scouting process where amateurs get to ogle over height/weight/speed anomalies while ignoring their significant flaws in the hopes that they magically turn the corner in a single season.

It doesn’t help that X (formerly Twitter) accounts like NFL Rookie Watch got 1.8 million impressions on erroneous reports that multiple NFL scouts believed Milton was the next Richardson. Do yourself a favor and follow real people with real accounts and real knowledge about the game instead of aggregator accounts.

By Sept. 11, he was bordering the top 100. By the end of October, he was near 200.

Milton is clearly not an NFL starter, nor could he survive in a backup role any time soon. It would likely take years of development to realize whatever operational potential he has. Considering he’s in his sixth college season already, that development is less likely.

There’s no hurt in spending a seventh-round pick on him or making him an undrafted free agent. His physical profile alone makes him tantalizing. But developing in the shadows isn’t something we should count on. It would be more surprising to see him ever take a live NFL snap than not based on what we’ve seen from him as a college player.

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