As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are New York Jets WR Allen Lazard’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Allen Lazard’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Whatever happens with the Jets this year, most people can agree that they tried their best this offseason. For a franchise that hasn’t had a QB throw for 4,000+ yards since Joe Namath, New York finally went all in on a future Hall of Fame quarterback.
But it was a package deal, apparently, because to help lure Aaron Rodgers to New York, they needed to sign friends like Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard.
As a result, Rodgers might have the best statistical season of any Jets QB in history. However, it might come at a cost for fantasy managers who invest in any receiver not named Garrett Wilson.
Along with Wilson, Lazard must compete for targets with fellow newcomer Mecole Hardman, Corey Davis, and presumably even the aged Cobb (some weeks, at least). Then there’s the TE trio of Tyler Conklin, C.J. Uzomah, and Jeremy Ruckert. The first two tight ends have starter experience. The third was a prized third-round pick last season, and he could play a bigger role in 2023.
Then there’s the ground game and defense. The two go hand in hand. Rodgers doesn’t need to throw the ball 35+ times a game if Breece Hall, Michael Carter, and New York’s vaunted defense play to their potential.
The Jets need Rodgers to stay healthy. They’re all in. As a result, I expect the team to play things conservatively with him. Don’t be surprised if an injury that Rodgers might have shaken off a few years ago becomes a reason to sideline him for a week.
This team was built to win on the ground and on defense. Rodgers is the icing on the cake. He might feed a couple of guys a week in addition to his catch-friendly backfield.
That’s not encouraging news if you’re planning to draft Lazard, who finally broke through last year — his fifth NFL campaign. What was different? Davante Adams was gone. Lazard entered last summer as Rodgers’ presumed No. 1 WR. But rookie Christian Watson frequently went toe to toe with Lazard, despite earning one-third fewer targets. Another rookie, Romeo Doubs, sometimes shined at Lazard’s expense.
And when all three played full games together in the final four weeks, Lazard collected only 15 catches for 168 yards and a touchdown. Alongside two rookies and a smattering of tertiary talent, the supposed No. 1 wideout played more like a No. 2.
In New York, Lazard cannot be trusted as a No. 1 or a No. 2. Perhaps he’s a co-No. 2 with Hardman. Some weeks, he’ll be the No. 3 WR in a balanced offensive attack.
It all adds up to a roughly 45-475-3 receiving line.
Should You Draft Allen Lazard This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Lazard with an ADP of WR55. For context, last year’s WR50 (Richie James) had a 57-569-4 receiving line. For all the reasons highlighted above, this would be a slightly ambitious expectation for Lazard.
Some managers will examine his stats from last year and conclude that that’s his new floor — that he can be a top-40 WR while continuing to play with Rodgers. And yeah, it could happen.
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What’s more likely, however, is that Lazard will find himself buried in the offense more often than not. Rodgers has rarely been a high-volume passer throughout his career. His pass attempts per game in 2020 and 2021 were at their lowest marks since 2014. And last year, he averaged only 31.9 throws per contest — his lowest mark since 2010.
Rodgers’ trend line, the Jets’ strong D and running game, and a fairly large collection of receivers headlined by unquestioned No. 1 Garrett Wilson … well, it’s hard to see how Lazard breaks through most weeks. As a result, he’s a fringe fantasy asset with a low ceiling. While he could outperform expectations on the whole, managers can find higher-upside options at a comparable price.
