In the seven-team NFL playoff format, only the No. 1 seed gets a first-round bye. Entering Week 12, the AFC’s home-field advantage race had become a three-horse contest.
After the dust settled, the Kansas City Chiefs remained in pole position after rebounding from their first loss of the season to the Buffalo Bills, who were on bye in Week 12.
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens are also realistic candidates to earn the top seed in the AFC. Below we examine the current outlook for the No. 1 seed for those teams using PFN’s Playoff Predictor.
Kansas City Chiefs: 10-1
The Chiefs bounced back from last Sunday’s loss, escaping the Carolina Panthers in another too-close-for-comfort 30-27 win.
Kansas City scored on each of its first five possessions and held a 27-16 lead in the fourth quarter, but needed more Patrick Mahomes heroics after giving up the game-tying touchdown and two-point conversion. A Mahomes 33-yard scramble, which was the longest rush of his career, set up the game-winning field goal from Spencer Shrader.
The Chiefs have at least a one-game advantage over the Bills, Steelers and Ravens in the loss column and a 73.8% chance to earn the No. 1 seed. Of course, they’ll lose any head-to-head tiebreaker with Buffalo and still host Pittsburgh in Week 17. A win would have effectively put the top seed to bed, as the Chiefs would have been three games up in the loss column with the head-to-head tiebreaker on the Bills.
Still, it’s more likely than not the Chiefs will earn a first-round bye yet again. Two of the Chiefs’ next three games are against teams with losing records, though their last three games are all against potential playoff opponents.
Kansas City has been the top seed in three of its first six seasons with Patrick Mahomes as the starting quarterback (2018, 2020, 2022), and that even-year trend still appears poised to continue.
Buffalo Bills: 9-2
The Bills have won six straight since back-to-back losses and pulled off the biggest win by any team this season in defeating the previously 9-0 Chiefs. Josh Allen delivered the type of performance that has many believing he’ll win MVP someday, recording 262 pass yards, 55 rush yards, a passing touchdown, and a game-sealing 26-yard rushing touchdown on fourth down.
Buffalo has the clear second-highest projection for the AFC’s top seed at 18.0%. The Bills enjoyed a much-needed bye week in Week 12 after a huge victory over the Chiefs.
Buffalo has an extremely difficult three-game stretch after its Week 12 bye (San Francisco 49ers, at Los Angeles Rams, at Detroit Lions), so their latest win leaves the Bills as long shots to earn home-field advantage. But with the AFC East effectively clinched, the only questions remaining are: 1) what seed will the Bills end up with, and 2) can they finally slay their K.C. demons when it counts most in the playoffs?
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-3
After an impressive victory over the Baltimore Ravens last week, the Steelers fell flat in Week 12. Pittsburgh was upset by the Browns and allowed the Ravens to stay alive in the race for the AFC North. After losing to the Browns, Pittsburgh’s chance to earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC dropped from 5.6% to 2.3%.
Due to the Browns’ loss, the Steelers are slight underdogs to the Ravens to win the division, especially after Baltimore’s victory in Los Angeles. According to PFN’s projections, the Steelers have a 41.7% chance to win their division after being upset by the Browns.
The Steelers still have a difficult remaining schedule, but their path to the No. 1 seed is technically still alive. Pittsburgh hosts Kansas City in Week 17, a week after the rematch with the Ravens in Baltimore, Md.
Baltimore Ravens: 8-4
Following Baltimore’s dominant victory over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 12, the Ravens are officially alive in the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. While they still have to make up ground on the other three teams in the race, the Ravens aren’t mathematically eliminated from the top spot just yet.
After defeating the Chargers, Baltimore is now 8-4 and maintained pace with the Steelers in the AFC North. According to PFN’s projections, the Ravens have a 58.0% chance to win their division after the Steelers were embarrassed by the Browns in Week 12.
Baltimore also leaped Pittsburgh in Week 12 and now has better odds to potentially secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC. According to PFN’s projections, the Ravens have a 3.4% chance to win the top spot in their conference.
AFC Playoff Race After Week 14
1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (10-3)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3)
4. Houston Texans (8-5)
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)
7. Denver Broncos (8-5)
In The Hunt
8. Indianapolis Colts (6-7)
9. Miami Dolphins (6-7)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (5-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
11. Cleveland Browns (3-10)
12. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10)
13. New York Jets (3-10)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-10)
15. New England Patriots (3-10)
16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)