Where does the NFL MVP race stand after Week 11? While Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson was favored to win his second consecutive MVP entering this week’s action, team performance always matters in individual award battles — and Lamar’s team fell to 7-3 on Sunday.
Here’s how we view the NFL MVP race heading into Week 12.
NFL MVP Race Rankings Through Week 11
Honorable mention: Eagles QB Jalen Hurts; Bengals QB Joe Burrow; Ravens RB Derrick Henry; Eagles RB Saquon Barkley
5) Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
- Week 11 QB+ grade: BYE
- 2024 QB+ grade: B (84.9)
Don’t look now, but Kyler Murray ranks second in QBR this season, trailing only Jackson. He’s helped the Arizona Cardinals to an NFC West-leading 6-4 mark while playing outstanding football under offensive coordinator Drew Petzing.
Murray didn’t play this week with the Cardinals on a bye, but the former No. 1 overall pick was dominant in a win over the New York Jets in Week 10. At one point, Murray completed 17 straight passes against Gang Green. He ended last Sunday’s game with a 91.7% completion rate and scored two rushing touchdowns.
MURRAY MAGIC 🪄 pic.twitter.com/DKVUFxrwcJ
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) November 10, 2024
Murray is playing better from the pocket than ever during his six-year pro career. With an underrated offensive line and weapons like James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Trey McBride, Murray is in the midst of a career campaign.
He may get enough volume to vault into the top of the MVP race, given that the Cardinals rank 24th in pass rate over expectation. But if Arizona wins its division and Kyler keeps playing like this, he will at least be in the conversation.
4) Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
- Week 11 QB+ grade: 73.7 (C)
- 2024 QB+ grade: B+ (87.6)
Jayden Daniels would be a shoo-in for 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year if the season ended today, but he’s also played well enough to throw his hat into the MVP ring.
After 11 weeks, the Washington Commanders’ rookie quarterback ranks fourth in EPA per dropback (0.20) and ninth in passing success rate (48.8%). Despite the lack of talent around him, Daniels never appears frazzled inside or outside the pocket. When pressured, he ranks fifth in yards per attempt and seventh in EPA per dropback.
Daniels is second among quarterbacks with 482 rushing yards, but he’s No. 1 in scramble yards (353). He’s especially calm and collected when Washington needs a conversion, ranking first in rushing EPA per game on third and fourth downs.
Daniels struggled over the last two weeks while facing the Pittsburgh Steelers and Phialdelphia Eagles’ impressive defenses. He should rebound against more forgiving defenses over the next few weeks when the Commanders face the Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, and New Orleans Saints.
3) Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
- Week 11 QB+ grade: B- (80.3)
- 2024 QB+ grade: B+ (87.2)
Josh Allen is the new betting favorite to win this year’s NFL MVP award after he took down Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Allen connected on 27 of 40 attempts for 262 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in Week 11, adding 55 yards and another score on the ground as the Buffalo Bills gave K.C. its first defeat.
Allen’s Bills are now 8-2 and have a realistic shot at usurping the Chiefs for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. While PFN’s Playoff Predictor gives Kansas City a 72.4% chance of securing the top seed, Buffalo has the second-best odds at 15.3%. The Bills will need the Chiefs to drop at least one more game, but Allen and Co. hold a crucial head-to-head tiebreaker.
Grabbing the top seed would help Allen’s MVP narrative, which he buoyed on Sunday with what CBS broadcaster called the “play of the year”:
JOSH. ALLEN. GREATNESS.
📺: #KCvsBUF on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/3HyIoDCaAC— NFL (@NFL) November 18, 2024
Allen has three top-five MVP finishes on his résumé (2020, 2022, and 2023). Will this be the year he finally gets over the hump?
2) Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
- Week 11 QB+ grade: A (94.7)
- 2024 QB+ grade: A- (92.5)
The NFL MVP race will always be narrative-baed, and Jared Goff might have the best narrative. The Detroit Lions are 9-1 and will be universally recognized as the league’s top team after the Chiefs dropped their first game in Week 11.
Goff, cast off by the Los Angeles Rams and included as a throw-in in the trade that sent Matthew Stafford to the NFC West, has joined head coach Dan Campbell as the face of the Lions’ rebuilding process. If Detroit finishes the season with 13 or 14 (or more) wins and walks away with the NFC’s No. 1 seed, Goff will be in the mix.
And we haven’t even gotten into his individual performance.
Goff rebounded from his five-interception game in Week 10 to complete 24 of 29 attempts for 412 yards and four touchdowns in the Lions’ 52-6 demolition of the Jacksonville Jaguars. His 94.7 grade was the league’s best mark in Week 11 QB+, while Goff managed a perfect 158.3 passer rating.
Goff ranks No. 1 in passing success rate (54.8%) after Week 11, meaning he’s been the NFL’s most consistent quarterback on a down-to-down basis. The 2024 campaign has been the idealized version of the marriage between Goff and Lions OC Ben Johnson, and it could result in end-of-year hardware.
1) Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
- Week 11 QB+ grade: D (65.9)
- 2024 QB+ grade: A+ (100.0)
Week 11 was undoubtedly a step back for Lamar, who completed fewer than 50% of his passes for 207 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, adding 46 rushing yards on four carries.
By the numbers, Jackson has easily been the NFL’s most productive quarterback — even when you account for Sunday’s letdown.
He’s earned a perfect 100.0 grade in PFN’s QB+ system this season, the No. 1 mark for all quarterbacks dating back to 2019. The only other QBs to earn an A+ grade since 2019 were Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes in 2020 (Rodgers won MVP).
Lamar still leads the league in the headline stats like passing yards and touchdowns. He’s also No. 1 — by a mile — in total EPA on dropbacks.
Jackson has put up 115.5 expected points added in 2024. Goff is second at 74.9. The gap between Jackson and Goff is the same as the delta between Goff and Derek Carr, who ranks 12th in total EPA.
Whether Lamar will actually win MVP this year remains to be seen. He’ll have a difficult time if the 7-3 Ravens don’t manage to win the AFC North over the 8-2 Steelers. But Jackson has been the most statistically productive player in the NFL in 2024.