Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen is now firmly the team’s WR2 behind Justin Jefferson. Getting up there in age and coming off an injury-marred season, what can fantasy football managers expect from Thielen in the 2022 season, and is he a good value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Adam Thielen’s fantasy outlook for 2022
It goes without saying that Thielen will never reach the heights he did in 2018 when he averaged 19.1 PPR fantasy points per game. His target share has dipped since then, but not as much as you may think.
In 2020, following the Vikings’ trade of Stefon Diggs, Thielen commanded a 25.2% target share as the WR1 opposite rookie Justin Jefferson. Last season, Jefferson became the established WR1, and Thielen’s target share dropped to 21%.
Thielen has made up for the decrease in volume with an increase in efficiency. Through 2019, Thielen’s career-high in touchdowns was nine. In 2020, he scored 14 times, and in 2021, he scored 10 times in just 13 games.
Entering the 2022 campaign, Thielen is now 32 years old. The cliff is coming. However, I don’t think it is here just yet. Remember, Thielen doesn’t have the same wear and tear as other 32-year-old wide receivers. The Vikings signed him as a 24-year-old UDFA in 2014, and he barely played over his first two seasons. He’s a young 32 and has a skill set that doesn’t rely on raw athleticism, so it should age well.
How the Vikings’ depth chart impacts Adam Thielen’s fantasy projection for the season
The Vikings have a lot of continuity in terms of offensive personnel. Kirk Cousins is back. Jefferson, K.J. Osborn, and Ihmir Smith-Marsette make up the likely top four receivers alongside Thielen. Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison remain the top two running backs. The only real change is Irv Smith hopefully being healthy this season as the primary tight end with Tyler Conklin gone.
From a scheme perspective, things could be different as the Vikings have a new head coach in Kevin O’Connell. Their new coach spent the past two seasons as the offensive coordinator for Sean McVay and the Rams. It stands to reason he intends to bring what he learned to the Vikings. As a result, we could see even more passing from a team that already threw the ball 59% of the time in neutral game script situations.
Why, exactly, are fantasy managers fading Thielen?
Thielen’s 2021 season seems to be viewed somewhat unfavorably by the fantasy community. Not in the sense that he was bad, but that he’s old and can’t stay healthy. Thielen averaged 15.4 ppg in the 13 games he played last season. Those are high-WR2 numbers.
I wouldn’t expect Thielen to maintain his 10% touchdown rate from 2021 or the 13% rate he had the season before. However, the red-zone targets are a thing. It’s not an accident. Cousins looks for Thielen in the red zone, and Thielen scores because he gets open. Thielen saw 20 red-zone targets in 2020 and 15 in his 13 games in 2021.
Even if Thielen sees another tick down in volume and scores at an 8% clip, we’re still looking at a player capable of putting up mid-WR2 numbers.
Thielen’s ADP for 2022
Every time I write anything about Thielen being a value, I’m afraid the fantasy community will suddenly figure it out, and his ADP will spike. Because it just doesn’t make much sense.
Thielen is going around 70th overall as the WR28. There are only two ways he doesn’t smash this ADP. Either he gets hurt, or he’s done. That’s it. If Thielen is on the field and hasn’t seen his skills completely erode, I struggle to see how he’s not at least a low WR2.
In PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings, Thielen is virtually valued at his current ADP. He is the WR28 and the 69th-ranked player overall. However, Tommy Garrett and I have Thielen as a value at his current price, while Ben Rolfe has Thielen a couple of rounds later in his rankings.
Thielen may be old, but we haven’t seen evidence of a decline. I think he has two productive years left. You would always rather be out a year early rather than a year late, but at Thielen’s ADP, if this is it, you won’t suffer too much. I’m taking the shot on Thielen everywhere I can.
