Kyler Murray needed two weeks of training camp to end a quarterback competition the Minnesota Vikings spent five months insisting was real. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Tuesday that Murray will start Week 1 against Green Bay, closing the book on J.J. McCarthy before Minnesota has played a preseason snap.
PFSN’s Jacob Infante saw both halves of that coming.
“The quarterback battle is over before their preseason even really kicks off,” Infante said. “It’s a little surprising that it got called off this early, but it’s not surprising that Kyler won the job.”
Why Kyler Murray Won the Vikings’ Starting Quarterback Job
The gap between the two was never subtle. McCarthy completed 57.6% of his passes for 1,632 yards, 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions across 10 starts in 2025, finishing 34th of 38 qualified quarterbacks in PFSN’s QB Impact metric. His 67.0 grade sat eight points below the 75.0 that marks an average starter on that scale. Murray didn’t play enough to qualify last season after a foot injury ended his year at five starts.
“He was a little up and down in Arizona, but still better than JJ was last year,” Infante said. “Kyler didn’t qualify last year, but in 2024 he finished 13th. So if he can rebound back to that level, you’re looking at an average to even an above-average starter at the position.”
Average would be a windfall in this building. Minnesota’s quarterbacks combined for 17 touchdowns and 21 interceptions last season, the offense averaged 188.7 passing yards per game (30th in the NFL), and the line gave up 60 sacks. The Vikings went 9-8 anyway.
“When you consider the Vikings were 9-8 last year with subpar quarterback play, it’s interesting to think what they could be this year if Kyler Murray rebounds and lives up to his full potential,” Infante said.
PREDICT THE NFL SEASON: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
Brian Flores’ defense finished third in total defense at 282.6 yards allowed per game and seventh in scoring at 19.6 points. That unit does not need a top-10 quarterback. It needs one who stops handing the ball to the other team. Murray also gives Kevin O’Connell something his offense has never had in Minnesota, a starter who can turn a broken play into 15 yards without throwing it.
What Kyler Murray Means for Justin Jefferson’s Bounce-Back
Justin Jefferson extended his streak to six straight 1,000-yard seasons in 2025, becoming the third player in league history to open a career that way. The number itself was grim: 84 catches, 1,048 yards, two touchdowns on 141 targets. He was targeted like a No. 1 receiver and produced like a No. 3.
“It’ll be interesting too to see if Justin Jefferson can bounce back, as he barely cracked 1,000 receiving yards last season,” Infante said. “With better quarterback play, though, we could see him rebound and make it all the way back to his full typical production.”
Jefferson is 27 and hasn’t changed. The throws did. Quarterbacks targeting him posted a 57.9 passer rating last season with 10 interceptions on balls thrown his way, down from 107.4 in 2024. That is not a receiver in decline. That is a receiver whose quarterbacks were getting him hit and picked off.
MORE FDC: Caleb Williams Is Better Than the Analytics Want You to Believe
The risk isn’t whether Murray is better than McCarthy. It’s the calendar. Murray has completed one full season in the past five years, and O’Connell just gave him a month of full-time work with the starters while pulling the incumbent out of that rotation. Minnesota is paying Murray $1.3 million while Arizona covers $35.5 million of his old deal, which makes him the best value bet in the league if he stays upright. If he doesn’t, the Vikings will ask a 23-year-old they benched in August to rescue their season.
