Caleb Williams made his NFL Top 100 debut Friday at No. 51, voted there by the only people who line up against him every Sunday. Pro Football Network’s own Top 100 had him at No. 90, and that 39-spot gap is the most honest thing anyone has said about the Bears quarterback all offseason.
The 39-Spot Gap in Caleb Williams’ Top 100 Rankings
Both numbers can be right. The players graded what they saw late in 2025, when Williams pushed Chicago to its first NFC North title since 2018 and its first playoff win since the 2010 season. The analysts graded a full-season efficiency profile that has not caught up to the tape.
PFN analyst Jacob Infante, who wrote the entries for the outlet’s list, split the difference. “Honestly, I think he’s somewhere in the middle,” Infante said on PFN’s Football Debate Club. “Going off the analytics, he only finished 20th in QB Impact scoring last year, but you have to consider the eye test as well.”
The eye test is where Williams separates from his metrics. “The incredible arm talent, the elite athleticism, the playmaking ability outside of structure, and the ability to step through in the clutch really elevated the Bears to that next level last season,” Infante said.
The résumé backs him. Williams set a Bears single-season record with 3,942 passing yards, threw 27 touchdowns against seven interceptions, and led the NFL in fourth-quarter comebacks. Chicago won seven games it trailed in the final two minutes, six in the regular season and one in the playoffs, the most by any team since at least 1970.
The divide holds at the position. The league’s players slotted Williams as roughly the 10th quarterback on their board, close to ESPN’s offseason poll of executives, coaches and scouts. PFN’s voters had him 15th among passers.
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The analytics are the anchor, and Infante does not fight them so much as explain them. “I know the analytics are a little wonky,” he said. “A lot of it came down to his offense’s reliance on that intermediate throw, having a little bit deeper of average depth of target than the average offense, and naturally that’s going to affect your completion percentage a little bit.”
He has a case. Williams completed 58.1% of his throws in 2025, but his average depth of target ranked 16th among qualified passers, per SumerSports, deeper than the league average. Ben Johnson’s first year in Chicago leaned on the intermediate window, and throws in the 10-to-19-yard range come off the hand less cleanly than checkdowns.
That is the tension the box score cannot resolve. A quarterback who pushes the ball downfield completes a lower percentage, and the answer is not more checkdowns. It is converting the intermediate throws he is already taking, and Williams’ second-half tape trended that way, with his accuracy climbing at every level down the stretch.
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None of that settles whether 51 or 90 is closer to right, and it is not supposed to. “He’s still got some room to grow, but regardless, the future’s incredibly bright for Caleb,” Infante said. “I’m excited to see where he’s going to end up on these lists next year.” The players already put him 39 spots higher than the analysts did. Close the completion gap in Year 3, and the two rankings stop arguing.
